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FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1
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GFS pretty consistent in the past few runs regarding the development of a Greenland high and bitter Northerly flow at +300 hrs. However, it is so deep in FI that there isn't much point discussing it yet.
Seems to be slightly slipping away in the latest run, however back in '10 the GFS called it long before any other models did so we'll see
EDIT: Once again, is anyone else a total hypocrite when it comes to FI? When we get epic charts like last night, I'm like "Yay, sure how bad can FI be anyway?" whereas when it starts falling apart like it is now I'm like "Pah, it's only FI, who even pays attention to that sh!te" 0 -
hatrickpatrick wrote: »Seems to be slightly slipping away in the latest run, however back in '10 the GFS called it long before any other models did so we'll see
EDIT: Once again, is anyone else a total hypocrite when it comes to FI? When we get epic charts like last night, I'm like "Yay, sure how bad can FI be anyway?" whereas when it starts falling apart like it is now I'm like "Pah, it's only FI, who even pays attention to that sh!te"
I don't think it's falling apart. You are never going to get the same output at 300+ hours run after run. The fact that there has been three similar motherly outcomes in a row now at that extreme range is interesting but almost certainly just coincidental since there is little support from the ensembles and...300+ hours is an awfully long time away from a model to predict the numerous hoops that have to be jumped through to get a cold spell here. We've seen cold spells get watered down to damp squibs at under 120 hours, within the reliable timeframe. 300+ hours is absolute cloud cuckoo land and should only ever be looked at for fun, no matter what it's showing.
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maquiladora wrote: »I don't think it's falling apart. You are never going to get the same output at 300+ hours run after run. The fact that there has been three similar motherly outcomes in a row now at that extreme range is interesting but almost certainly just coincidental since there is little support from the ensembles and...300+ hours is an awfully long time away from a model to predict the numerous hoops that have to be jumped through to get a cold spell here. We've seen cold spells get watered down to damp squibs at under 120 hours, within the reliable timeframe. 300+ hours is absolute cloud cuckoo land and should only ever be looked at for fun, no matter what it's showing.
When I say falling apart, I mean that the high is still there but it's stopped being a block, in that it's being swept away by the next system on the polar vortex conveyor belt.
They're saying on Netweather that this year has had a particularly strong start to the polar vortex and that it would take something stronger than a regular block / SSW to disrupt it properly...0 -
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Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,823 Mod ✭✭✭✭
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Mod Note: I have moved a number of recent posts, in relation to Friday's potential weather, into the Winter Weather discussion thread. Friday, i.e. 48 hours away, is not exactly FI!!!
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Whilst the outlook could be alot better in the near term if you like proper winter weather, the extended outlook is not without interest.
FI on the GFS and The ECM to an extent has been improving over the past few days with hints at Greenland/Arctic height rises and never at any stage has the output shown a definite organisation of the Polar Vortex as we move through December, which can only be a good sign. No definite indication we are going to see a cold spell just yet but I've a feeling we will be seeing much better charts early next week based on current FI output.
ECM not showing much organisation of the PV here-
Here's an example of the promising GFS FI charts from the 00z Run today.
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Whilst the outlook could be alot better in the near term if you like proper winter weather, the extended outlook is not without interest.
FI on the GFS and The ECM to an extent has been improving over the past few days with hints at Greenland/Arctic height rises and never at any stage has the output shown a definite organisation of the Polar Vortex as we move through December, which can only be a good sign. No definite indication we are going to see a cold spell just yet but I've a feeling we will be seeing much better charts early next week based on current FI output.
ECM not showing much organisation of the PV here-
Here's an example of the promising GFS FI charts from the 00z Run today.
Apologies if this is a daft question but can you me why no pv organisation is good?0 -
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maquiladora wrote: »We've seen it pop up a few times in the GEFS but it's appeared in the operational run now.
Was just about to comment on that chart...NE to N gale with rain turning to snow - would be amazing0
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