FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

kstand

Certainly something to look at over the coming few days.

maquiladora

Now here's something you never see. -11 in Ireland at 6pm while everywhere else is 9 or 10 degrees higher. :P The reason why is high pressure settling over snowfields in the midlands from the earlier event.



Fantasy Island is right :P

Then 2 days later, the mild air swoops back in. Melting snow, heavy rain. Flooding on Christmas Eve?



Sure it'll all be different on the 12Z anyway.

weatherfiend

maquiladora wrote: »

Just cherrypicking individual GEFS members showing things that probably won't happen. :P

Anyone for the Christmas Eve ice day with snow showers?

Yes please Maq. Anything you can do to provide would be gratefully received!!

arctictree

maquiladora wrote: »

We've seen it pop up a few times in the GEFS but it's appeared in the operational run now.

I'd be a bit worried if that was two days out!

WheatenBriar

arctictree wrote: »

I'd be a bit worried if that was two days out!

The likes of that is computer generated gobble de gook thankfully

4c in a northeasterly on the east coast at night doesn't cut it for me anyway, I'd have a lot of water on the ground

arctictree

WheatenBriar wrote: »

The likes of that is computer generated gobble de gook thankfully

4c in a northeasterly on the east coast at night doesn't cut it for me anyway, I'd have a lot of water on the ground

Well I have a lot of sheep out on the hills and I would seriously think about bringing them in if that was forecast.

force eleven

arctictree wrote: »

Well I have a lot of sheep out on the hills and I would seriously think about bringing them in if that was forecast.

I'd bring the hills in too if that chart came off.

WheatenBriar

arctictree wrote: »

Well I have a lot of sheep out on the hills and I would seriously think about bringing them in if that was forecast.

Oh yeah I understand that
In January of 2010 (not nov dec), there were crazy amounts of snow still falling high up long after it was gone lower down

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Now here's something you never see. -11 in Ireland at 6pm while everywhere else is 9 or 10 degrees higher. :P The reason why is high pressure settling over snowfields in the midlands from the earlier event.

Me if that chart was at +18hrs :rolleyes:

Elmer Blooker

Very nice! ...... and LP to our southwest too- always a good sign in winter.
no doubt the ECM later on will wipe the smile off my face!!

arctictree

Not as crazy as the 06z but a nice cold spell nonetheless

sryanbruen

Flooding on Christmas Eve? Ah give me a bleedin' break!

Gonzo

if this keeps up could be the wettest December on record in some parts

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

if this keeps up could be the wettest December on record in some parts

Well it's already been the third wettest December on record in Miami :P

Meteorite58

Models indicating a Low Pressure slowly deepening over Ireland the weekend , I wonder could it draw down colder airs from the N and NW giving some wintry conditions early next week. Temperature charts showing some cold day and night temperatures as the week goes on. The jet looks very fractured around the weekend but takes a more NW route into next week.

Gaoth Laidir

The GFS will usually show a colder outbreak than what materialises. The ECM ensembles out to 15 days are still showing seasonal troughing near Iceland/Greenland and a continuation of the mild southwesterly theme.

arctictree

First XMas day chart appearing on the GFS:



This one looks cold with possible undercutting. Will change of course.

maquiladora

Cold with snow showers on the run up to Christmas Day on the 0Z GFS

icesnowfrost

maquiladora wrote: »

Cold with snow showers on the run up to Christmas Day on the 0Z GFS

Wouldn't that be great if it was only 72hrs away

123 LC

We can dream :P

Snowbiee21

123 LC wrote: »

We can dream :P

What's this bringing:(

force eleven

Cannot see any relenting of the Atlantic train at present. Low pressure close to the North. High pressure over Europe. Has been this way for weeks and looks like into early Jan at least. Think I will take a break from FI watching for a week and see what happens.

Captain Snow

GFS and ECM have been very flip floppy lately , to many big swings Artic blasts and mild southerly flows. Seems they are getting to the wrong output faster. This has happened a few times over the years. Each time i noticed this we have had a cold period of weather or a warm distrubed period. Its one or the other coming up over the next few weeks.

Iancar29

Ho-ho-ho

sryanbruen

Iancar29 wrote: »

Ho-ho-ho

So wait.... I'm seeing some similarities here:

2015
*Very strong El Nino
*Wet, windy and dull November
*Christmas Day storm (possible)

1997
*Very strong El Nino
*Wet, windy and dull November
*Christmas Eve storm

weatherfiend

My daughter just told me that the dad of a friend of her's is a meteorologist and he has said that we will have a snow storm two nights before Christmas Eve yayyyyy hope we do

maquiladora

Rock Lesnar

maquiladora wrote: »

No, No more please, i cant take it anymore

sryanbruen

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

No, No more please, i cant take it anymore

True that! WAY TOO MANY STORMS!

New Year's Day
7th January
9th January
12th January
Storm Rachel
23rd February
30th / 31st March
12th November
17th / 18th November
29th November
5th December

Rock Lesnar

sryanbruen wrote: »

True that! WAY TOO MANY STORMS!

New Year's Day
7th January
9th January
12th January
Storm Rachel
23rd February
30th / 31st March
12th November
17th / 18th November
29th November
5th December

I dont mind the wind part of the storm, the home place is beside a huge wood, so a good wind storm was great growing up, its the rain i cant stand, sick to death of water lying around the house