FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

Elmer Blooker · 06-01-2016 7:15pm

:eek: ... jaysus! I've nothing else to add.

ECM1-240.GIF?06-0

BLIZZARD7 · 06-01-2016 7:16pm

Best 10 day ECM chart I've seen in a long time -

ECH1-240.GIF?06-0

Captain Snow · 07-01-2016 1:25pm

So a week from now 168 hrs away potential Blizzard situation eastern parts of Ireland.

ECM

GFS

WheatenBriar · 07-01-2016 1:53pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

So a week from now 168 hrs away potential Blizzard situation eastern parts of Ireland.

ECM

GFS

More likely to be only on high ground,well inland and in Connaught Ulster and North Leinster (inland) on that chart
East coastal parts including Dublin would have cold rainy sleet
Too much of a warm sector
That said,I'm not convinced any low will get that far north if the jetstream is barrelling into the cote d'azur

maquiladora · 07-01-2016 2:04pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

So a week from now 168 hrs away potential Blizzard situation eastern parts of Ireland.

ECM

GFS

ECM snowfall at 180 hours :

http://i.imgbox.com/CfcdOahE.png

Captain Snow · 07-01-2016 2:07pm

WheatenBriar wrote: »

More likely to be only on high ground,well inland and in Connaught Ulster and North Leinster (inland) on that chart
East coastal parts including Dublin would have cold rainy sleet
Too much of a warm sector
That said,I'm not convinced any low will get that far north if the jetstream is barrelling into the cote d'azur

I think that is the Low MT was talking about this morning, it may not even happen but great charts and possibilites. It reminds me of 1996 if i remember correctly a low turned north clashed with the cold air and plastered eastern counties. Any lows coming north or sliding south east now have great potential to produce dumps of snow in Ireland, midland areas favour the most atm. Higher parts of Dublin Wicklow would also see snow.

However this could all change to a closer time frame. ECM giving the best output.

WheatenBriar · 07-01-2016 2:32pm

maquiladora wrote: »

ECM snowfall at 180 hours :

http://i.imgbox.com/CfcdOahE.png

Theres form for that horse in January 2010 at the end of the jan week one spell
Sleet and rain on the coast in the East but snow in Waterford and Cork thanks to the wind flow drying out the dewpoints down that way

Musicman2000 · 07-01-2016 3:09pm

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Theres form for that horse in January 2010 at the end of the jan week one spell
Sleet and rain on the coast in the East but snow in Waterford and Cork thanks to the wind flow drying out the dewpoints down that way

As you said that low will have a more southerly Track . More than likely the North of France into the english channel . But if it does Track as shown Waterford & Cork should do well.

Iancar29 · 07-01-2016 4:33pm

Nice 12z run, still steady , nothing amazing or disastrous on either run.

UKMO gives us the best northerly incursion while the GFS, even though it produces a much better Greeny high , it brings a more indirect northerly which isn't as cold by the time it reaches us.

maquiladora · 07-01-2016 5:53pm

Up to 15 cm of snow in Munster accumulated by day 10 on the 12Z GFS, for what it's worth. Don't take it even remotely seriously though.

Captain Snow · 07-01-2016 6:06pm

There,ll be talk next of Omega blocks...............:D

SeaBreezes · 07-01-2016 6:08pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Up to 15 inches of snow in Munster accumulated by day 10 on the 12Z GFS, for what it's worth. Don't take it even remotely seriously though.

The south coast is still clear :-( we'll have to travel for our snow fix ..

HighLine · 07-01-2016 6:12pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Up to 15 inches of snow in Munster accumulated by day 10 on the 12Z GFS, for what it's worth. Don't take it even remotely seriously though.

Not 15cm no?

maquiladora · 07-01-2016 6:54pm

HighLine wrote: »

Not 15cm no?

Yeah! Just fixed it.

KingdomRushed · 07-01-2016 7:08pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

There,ll be talk next of Omega blocks...............:D

Check out the 12z ECM at 216 hours. Omega away ;-)

Bejubby · 07-01-2016 7:09pm

Downgrades from here on in lads.
Marginal snow to some parts of Ireland.

It's always the same with these guys charts, they start with extreme cases and then fizzle down to minor events.

Not getting too exited yet

Captain Snow · 07-01-2016 7:14pm

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Check out the 12z ECM at 216 hours. Omega away ;-)

Damn straight

pad199207 · 07-01-2016 7:21pm

Bejubby wrote: »

Downgrades from here on in lads.
Marginal snow to some parts of Ireland.

It's always the same with these guys charts, they start with extreme cases and then fizzle down to minor events.

Not getting too exited yet

I'll hand you your coat at the door

rickdangerouss · 07-01-2016 7:24pm

#Omega Block..

"The Omega Block is a combination of two cut-off lows and one blocking high that form the Greek letter omega (Ω). The westerly upper-level inflow abruptly splits westward and poleward of the first cyclonic circulation (L1), creating one of two primary deformation zones."

icesnowfrost · 07-01-2016 11:09pm

things are still looking fine as far as i can see. good cold pool over us and a nice low forming along the east coast. might produce some streamers. as far as i can see its all good.

J108-21.GIF?07-12

Elmer Blooker · 09-01-2016 9:47am

... no Dec '10 on the cards but nothing mild either.
I still think a scandi high is a real possibility though. FI is about +96 lately which is why this thread is so quiet I presume?

ECM1-216.GIF?09-12

esposito · 09-01-2016 11:04am

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

... no Dec '10 on the cards but nothing mild either.
I still think a scandi high is a real possibility though. FI is about +96 lately which is why this thread is so quiet I presume?

I'm liking your optimism Elmer. Usually you're the opposite:p

aboyro · 09-01-2016 12:31pm

icesnowfrost wrote: »

things are still looking fine as far as i can see. good cold pool over us and a nice low forming along the east coast. might produce some streamers. as far as i can see its all good.

all we need is that 990 low to slip towards biscay and its 1947 all over again!!!!

Gonzo · 09-01-2016 12:50pm

aboyro wrote: »

all we need is that 990 low to slip towards biscay and its 1947 all over again!!!!

unfortunately that chart was how things were before it kinda went all pear shaped for Leinster/Dublin in the past 24 hours.

Iancar29 · 09-01-2016 4:50pm

GFS keeps the gate closed for height rises into Greenland due to a cut off low coming off Newfoundland .

T+144hrs

UKMO and GEM don't make much of it however and better heights build into Greenland.

Even though it wouldn't produce some white gold the GEM then sinks the high down over us which would lead to some very nice crisp dry weather with frosty nights.

maquiladora · 09-01-2016 6:46pm

Here we go again....

ECM1-192.GIF?09-0

gerrybhoy · 09-01-2016 6:53pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Here we go again....

we're on the road again...oh wrong forum

Eugene Norman · 09-01-2016 9:41pm

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/685928227790008320

maquiladora · 09-01-2016 10:19pm

GFS showing a rain/snow mix on Friday.

pad199207 · 09-01-2016 10:25pm

Is the baold GFS backtracking?

maquiladora · 09-01-2016 10:36pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Is the baold GFS backtracking?

Extends the cold by a day or two. It's FI so it's going to change on each run anyway. Whatever happens, the weather next weekend almost certainly won't look like what the models are showing today.

maquiladora · 10-01-2016 7:49am

UKMO teasing those still looking for the chance of a significant cold spell.

UN144-21.GIF?10-06

maquiladora · 10-01-2016 4:39pm

GEM has colder uppers pushing into North Africa than Ireland. :rolleyes: :pac:

sean555 · 10-01-2016 10:34pm

I see the 18z GFS has decided to backtrack on both previous gfs runs and keep the cold next weekend.

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2016 11:43pm

Towards the end of the month signs of the jet taking a more Northerly track

Nabber · 13-01-2016 12:12am

Keeping the dream alive, where ever it may be found

You have the love the temps in Greenland on this
-4 and -40 less than 100miles apart

nacho libre · 14-01-2016 7:02pm

so euro heights and a resurgent pv on the gfs and ecm model going forward, this time next week it could be very mild over Ireland. maybe storm alex sends warmth up to the poles to disrupt the vortex again?

Nabber · 15-01-2016 1:09am

Just some eye candy

Nabber · 15-01-2016 8:00pm

FI GFS style

teddybones · 15-01-2016 8:47pm

Nabber wrote: »

FI GFS style

Just in time for my birthday on 27th. If that were to come to pass I imagine there would be some spectacular streamers on the east coast!

Oneiric 3 · 16-01-2016 1:46pm

ECM at 240hrs. Looks ominous.

Won't turn out like that of course but this morning's EC mean tending towards a more unsettled, possibly stormier spell as the month draws to a close.

Oneiric 3 · 17-01-2016 10:03pm

ECM 240 hrs completely different tonight, with a high trying to build to our N, and which goes against its ensemble mean. I really hope we don't get stuck in cold col type conditions as is per the norm these last few winters and as this chart suggests. A full blown easterly or a raging westerly I'll accept, but not this damp, semi-cold windless rot that we experience far too often in Ireland.

sryanbruen · 17-01-2016 10:05pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECM 240 hrs completely different tonight, with a high trying to build to our N, and which goes against its ensemble mean. I really hope we don't get stuck in cold col type conditions as is per the norm these last few winters and as this chart suggests. A full blown easterly or a raging westerly I'll accept, but not this damp, semi-cold windless rot that we experience far too often in Ireland.

One in particular back in February 2013 comes to mind of such a pattern.

nacho libre · 17-01-2016 10:25pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECM 240 hrs completely different tonight, with a high trying to build to our N, and which goes against its ensemble mean. I really hope we don't get stuck in cold col type conditions as is per the norm these last few winters and as this chart suggests. A full blown easterly or a raging westerly I'll accept, but not this damp, semi-cold windless rot that we experience far too often in Ireland.

yes, it seems a long time since we got a true deep easterly in Ireland.
i suppose looking at it optimistically, we are over due one.

by the way i was standing outside enjoying the snowfall at 5 am this morning . it didn't stick, but having being snow starved for so long, i was just happy seeing the white stuff fall.:D

Nabber · 18-01-2016 1:42am

Extreme Cherry picking of different perbs

arctictree · 18-01-2016 10:37am

GFS showing some more cold for mid next week:

Elmer Blooker · 18-01-2016 11:44am

you beat me to it! I was just about to post the same chart ......... oh wait ..... its not the same chart!

Speak Now · 18-01-2016 11:59am

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

you beat me to it! I was just about to post the same chart ......... oh wait ..... its not the same chart!

May as well go the whole hog....5 days later

teddybones · 18-01-2016 11:59am

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

you beat me to it! I was just about to post the same chart ......... oh wait ..... its not the same chart!

What happened in 1947 after this set up?

KingdomRushed · 18-01-2016 12:51pm

For what it's worth there is certainly a lot of interest in the 6z GFS ensembles which seem to have held on to and strengthened a trend from the previous set of ensembles this morning. This trend is for High Pressure to move north, first in our vicinity, and then poleward. Further to this there then is a number of ensembles showing various 'eye candy' in the 200 hr+ timeframe, with easterly sourced cold, northeasterly sourced cold, and northerly cold all in the mix.

FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

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