AUTUMN WEATHER 2015 - GENERAL CHAT THREAD

JCX BXC

Light Easterly wind in October, if I'm not wrong means alot of morning fog.

Tindie

With temp going down bit next week

As the midlands will be low teens 10/11)for the whole of next week!

When was last time we had temp that low?

I just can't remember lol

Clonmel1000

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I'm going for 20c in the Dublin area on Friday if there are long sunny spells.
Those ex-tropical storms can pump very warm air in our direction, it looks promising for some nice lenticulars too. Here's hoping!

How did this work out?

Schadenfreudia

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

How did this work out?

He was talking about last Friday I think!

sryanbruen

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

He was talking about last Friday I think!

No he wasn't, he was talking about yesterday. He specifically said "ex-tropical storms (Hurricane Joaquin he was talkin' 'bout) often bring very warm air". In this case, we didn't get any very warm air and the Joaquin headed off into Iberia - Spain & Portugal.

Clonmel1000

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

He was talking about last Friday I think!

Don't think so....

FWVT

He was talking about Friday 9th, but does it really matter?

patneve2

The Atlantic seems well and truly asleep at the moment, HP to dominate for the next week or two at least

Iancar29

Yeah its not often you'd see an ensemble forecast like this in October!

Meteorite58

Reached a whopping 17C here a short time ago under 3 oktas of cloud cover ( Valentia also got 17C )

Cloudier now but still 16C and feeling warmer then a lot of summer days

A lot warmer and brighter then I expected but I'll gladly take it.

Elmer Blooker

Its going to get very very quiet around here, a spell of watching-paint-dry anticyclonic gloom coming up. I hate it! My least favourite weather!

Hooter23

Ive noticed when we get weeks of dry calm weather around this time of year we usually pay the price later storms seem more frequent and violent

snubbleste

Hooter23 wrote: »

Ive noticed when we get weeks of dry calm weather around this time of year we usually pay the price later storms seem more frequent and violent

Stop that!
Today is a scorcher!

Oneiric 3

Hooter23 wrote: »

Ive noticed when we get weeks of dry calm weather around this time of year we usually pay the price later storms seem more frequent and violent

Not necessarily but one good case in point was November/early December 2013 when an unusual prolonged anticyclonic spell became dominant and it was during this spell that highest MSLP values of that year were recorded. Once this massive area of high pressure collapsed though in mid-December we ended up with a prolonged run of unusually deep low pressure systems crossing Ireland for the rest of the winter.




If I remember correctly, another example might be early 2012 when abnormally high MSLP values were recorded throughout January, Feb & March which in turn was followed by an abnormally long run of lower than average pressure that persisted from April until August at least.


Data in chart C/O Met Eireann.

Gonzo

feeling warm outside, So far late September and early October are giving this years summer a run for its money in terms of sunshine and relative warmth.

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Not necessarily but one good case in point was November/early December 2013 when an unusual prolonged anticyclonic spell became dominant and it was during this spell that highest MSLP values of that year were recorded. Once this massive area of high pressure collapsed though in mid-December we ended up with a prolonged run of unusually deep low pressure systems crossing Ireland for the rest of the winter.




If I remember correctly, another example might be early 2012 when abnormally high MSLP values were recorded throughout January, Feb & March which in turn was followed by an abnormally long run of lower than average pressure that persisted from April until August at least.


Data in chart C/O Met Eireann.

Yeah I can recall plenty of times, that type of scenario happened.

Other examples,

March 2012
*Dry
*Sunny
*Hot - warmest on record

March 2013
*Wet (at least here)
*Dull
*Extremely cold - coldest on record

Christmas Day 2010
*Cold
*Dry
*Sunny

Christmas Day 2011
*Very warm
*Relatively dry (some showers at times)
*Dull
*Windy

^ Oh wait, sorry, those are yearly changes. I will focus more on few months later kind of scenarios. Here are my examples:

A very warm Spring gave away to the very cold Summer of 2011.
Unseasonably cold Marches give away to very hot Summers (2006 and 2013).

I thought I knew more . I hope Christmas Day is nowhere like 2011 - didn't feel Christmas like at all. If this Autumn continues "colder than normal" into November, I predict that next year will be a much warmer Autumn.

Oneiric 3

sryanbruen wrote: »

Here are my examples:

A very warm Spring gave away to the very cold Summer of 2011.
Unseasonably cold Marches give away to very hot Summers (2006 and 2013).

Interestingly, March 2012 was one of the warmest on record; March one year later was one of the coldest. Result, averaged out these two months worked out about average.

While this is nothing more than just random coincidence, I do think that nature 'balances out' over a period of time, which is why long term averages regarding the Irish climate rarely changes to any significant degree. Of some note though is that MSLP values this year are running almost 2.0 hPa above normal; this is despite the relatively few anticyclonic systems that came within the vicinity of Ireland from the beginning of January up to this point. The question is, will nature redress this imbalance sooner rather than later, or later rather than sooner, or even not at all?

Schadenfreudia

Pretzill wrote: »

Just noticed today the trees are holding on to their leaves much longer this year - even the ash tree is starting to colour which is rare as it normally sheds rapidly whilst green - is there another warm, long autumn on the cards?

Leaves tell the tale of what has happened the past few months; they have absolutely no predictive abilities!

Pretzill

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Leaves tell the tale of what has happened the past few months; they have absolutely no predictive abilities!

Too true - but they still dictate the autumn and it looks like it could be a late fall - which makes me happier to believe that the darkest days won't be the coldest - don't go spoiling that on me with truths! I know Jan/Feb are normally colder but I prefer that when the light is coming back in the evening and I always consider February an early spring.

maquiladora

High pressure really dominating for the foreseeable future. This is the GFS total accumulated rainfall for the next 10 days. Less than 0.5mm in most places. Extremely dry.

MJohnston

I reckon the amount of leaves has more to do with the lack of wind recently? After a very windy first half of the year, it seemed to have been much calmer in August and September. This is just an anecdotal observation from a cyclist, mind you. Noticed today that the breeze was up, and plenty of leaves were starting to fall.

Gonzo

long may the rain stay away!

OldRio

Well September and October have been far better than most of the summer in this area. Dry and pleasant. Stunning mists over the local lakes in a morning with the sun shining low on the horizon.
Tis indeed the season of 'mists and mellow fruitfulness.'

sryanbruen

MJohnston wrote: »

I reckon the amount of leaves has more to do with the lack of wind recently? After a very windy first half of the year, it seemed to have been much calmer in August and September. This is just an anecdotal observation from a cyclist, mind you. Noticed today that the breeze was up, and plenty of leaves were starting to fall.

Tbh August was one of my windiest months this year:

1. January
2. February
3. June
4. August
5. March

MJohnston

sryanbruen wrote: »

Tbh August was one of my windiest months this year:

1. January
2. February
3. June
4. August
5. March

Well, I'll note that I meant specifically in Dublin city centre, probably more so September and the start of this month than August too.

sryanbruen

MJohnston wrote: »

Well, I'll note that I meant specifically in Dublin city centre, probably more so September and the start of this month than August too.

I am in Dublin 13

Hooter23

Accuweather late october/november forecast..

During November, the large ridge over central and eastern Europe will weaken and open the door for storm systems to enter northern Europe.

Strengthening storms from the Atlantic Ocean will bring the threat for damaging winds to Ireland, the United Kingdom, northern France, Belgium and the Netherlands during late October into November. This pattern is expected to continue into early winter when several powerful wind storms will cross northwestern Europe.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-fall-forecast-heat-ling/52002792

JCX BXC

Gonzo wrote: »

long may the rain stay away!

Rain? What's that?

Darwin

Hooter23 wrote: »

Accuweather late october/november forecast..



http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-fall-forecast-heat-ling/52002792

They seem to have changed their mind already:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-2016-europe-winter-forecast-seasonable-london-paris-storms-france-italy-alps/52871620

Hooter23

Darwin wrote: »

They seem to have changed their mind already:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-2016-europe-winter-forecast-seasonable-london-paris-storms-france-italy-alps/52871620

No thats the winter forecast