AUTUMN WEATHER 2015 - GENERAL CHAT THREAD

Meteorite58

Fairly good agreement across the models alright , some saying it is fast moving and some saying it will be slow to move on ( the latter would possibly give a lot of rainfall )

The 15th is just after a spring tide, not much rainfall expected from now till then so water table / rivers low after the summer. Trees full of leaves though.

Wait , watch and speculate

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ECM now showing the remains of Tropical Depression 8 (soon to be Henri) undergoing bombogenesis approaching the southwest coast. A couple of the lesser models have been hinting at this but now that the ECM is showing it, it has to be taken as a possibility. Still very much FI though.

Spookily close to the anniversary of Debbie, and spookily tracking a similar path.

Bring it on - oops, I mean I hope that doesn't happen...

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Spookily close to the anniversary of Debbie, and spookily tracking a similar path.

Bring it on - oops, I mean I hope that doesn't happen...

NAVGEM looks the most interesting at the moment.

Schadenfreudia

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Spookily close to the anniversary of Debbie, and spookily tracking a similar path.

Bring it on - oops, I mean I hope that doesn't happen...

Nah.

Bring it on!

Meteorite58

maquiladora

18Z GFS keeps the remains of TD8 weaker than the ECM. It phases with another low around 120 and the end result is a kinda flabby 980mb low crossing the west coast : a wet and blustery day but nothing more on that model.

Oscar Bravo

Orange and Yellow warning issued from Met Eireann

STATUS ORANGE

Rainfall Warning for Connacht, Donegal, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Tipperary
Widespread, very heavy rain, with some thundery downpours will develop Thursday night and persist through Friday, leading to spot flooding and possibly accumulations of 35 to 50mm, but up to 70mm possibly on hilly ground and on mountains.

Issued:Thursday 10 September 2015 09:00
Valid:Friday 11 September 2015 00:01 to Friday 11 September 2015 23:59


STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Waterford
Heavy falls of rain will develop during Friday and Friday night, leading to spot flooding, possible accumulations of 25 to 35mm possible.

Issued:Thursday 10 September 2015 09:00
Valid:Friday 11 September 2015 12:00 to Saturday 12 September 2015 06:00

maquiladora

The models this morning have dropped the idea of Tropical Storm Henri's remains winding up here as a storm next week.

maquiladora

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Orange and Yellow warning issued from Met Eireann

Euro4, ICON and WRF models are showing up to 100mm on high ground.

mg1982

And we were having a lovely spell of weather. Along comes another deluge to put an end to it.

maquiladora

mg1982 wrote: »

And we were having a lovely spell of weather. Along comes another deluge to put an end to it.

The sun will be out again on Saturday.

maquiladora

Schadenfreudia

After 9 dry days it reached 19C in the sunshine this afternoon - and now this is on the way to make everywhere wet and miserable

JCX BXC

First drops of rain starting to fall here in west Clare. Temp at a nice 18.2c still!

WheatenBriar

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

After 9 dry days it reached 19C in the sunshine this afternoon - and now this is on the way to make everywhere wet and miserable

What would happen if there was never any rain?

Meteorite58

maquiladora wrote: »

The models this morning have dropped the idea of Tropical Storm Henri's remains winding up here as a storm next week.

A possible split in the models ? both giving a low pressure system around the 15th but a couple of models have a secondary low developing fast and coming in from the SW with some vigor early on the 16th. Too soon to read too much into it ?

Schadenfreudia

WheatenBriar wrote: »

What would happen if there was never any rain?

I think we could survive a lot more than 9 dry days without a crisis :rolleyes:

mg1982

We dont normally get storms this early in the autumn. But if those charts are anything to go by we could be in for a wild few months.

JCX BXC

Bad flooding here in west Clare, ended up picking up 2 stranded pedestrians.

WheatenBriar

Gorgeous in Arklow now and 17c

JCX BXC

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Gorgeous in Arklow now and 17c

Gorgeous and 17c don't go together in my book!

Backpack20

Any updates on the track of storm Henri ?

ComfortKid

Last 3 days have been the wettest 3 days I've seen since 08.

I dont think it stopped for more than 20 mins.
Hurry up winter and hopefully we get a few sunny days, don't mind the cold once tis dry.

secman

Lovely day on Sat in wexford, wet this morning till around noon, once cloud broke up around 2 pm it was blue skies till 8 bells . Got a lovely 3 hour spin on the bike from 2 to 5 in 16 degrees sunshine.

fryup

any chance of an indian summer even at this late stage??

Oneiric 3

fryup wrote: »

any chance of an indian summer even at this late stage??

ECMWF ens out to day 15 hint at pressure rising over Ireland towards the last 3rd of the month. To be taken with a huge pinch of salt though

Mean chart for the 27th.




If such a pattern was to verify, would always put the west & north under a greater threat of weak frontal activity with best sunshine in E & S. Long way off though.

Harry Palmr

This week looks like it'll pan out rather better than I'd expected.

sryanbruen

Looking rather unsettled in the week ahead across most parts but south and eastern areas are looking rather dry compared to them. Still very cold for the time of year! So looks like no Indian Summer ahead!

Aerohead

Next Sunday the highest tide in 18 years will be in Galway, wind or no wind they expect flooding anyone have any idea of the wind for next weekend

Calibos

Aerohead wrote: »

Next Sunday the highest tide in 18 years will be in Galway, wind or no wind they expect flooding anyone have any idea of the wind for next weekend

It seems like most of the major storm events of the last few years seem to have coincided with higher than normal high tides, so........expect a major storm, high winds, swollen rivers to coincide with this exceptional high tide!!