Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

Pat Dunne

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This is a preliminary version of my winter outlook. I will update it some time around the middle of November. If you happen to find something similar on Net-weather, be aware that I have edited that forecast to be more specific to Ireland here. I worked on that forecast with another Net-weather member, and here in Ireland I sought some input from other members of Irish Weather Online, and I did a review of other credible forecasts that have been made available so far. This is basically my own work, however, not looking to share any blame too widely.

First of all, I expect November to be variable and average near normal for temperatures and precipitation. Expect a wide variety of weather types and one or two rather windy days but also a lot of anticylonic weather.

December and some part of January (at least the first half) will probably be mild more often than cold, but with spells of anticyclonic weather bringing quiet perhaps foggy conditions, and somewhat colder temperatures interspersed with milder southwesterly flows and possibly one or two stormy periods. If these storms develop, they would likely be followed by several days of northerly flow, local hill snow and gradually moderating temperatures. During this part of the winter, there may be considerable snowfall in higher parts of the northwest, if not in other parts of the country. There will be mild enough temperatures at times to melt lying snow so it won't likely be prolonged.

Later in January and for some part of February, more significant blocking appears likely, and I think there may be a spell of significant and perhaps extreme cold developing over nearby western Europe and possibly Britain as well. The delivery of cold to Ireland is always an issue, but at this early stage I would expect occasional freezing temperatures and some snow for parts of the east if not more widely distributed. This colder pattern is not likely to reverse itself quickly and it may just fade out through March.

I will revisit this forecast in November and give a final version with some of the reasoning added. At this point, would just say that the El Nino will not overwhelm the closer and therefore more significant cold Atlantic signal. However, I don't think that it will completely fail to interact with the Atlantic and European patterns, which is the main reason for thinking there could be perhaps one or even two significant windstorms as there were in Dec 1997.

Watch for an update in mid-November, at which time I will try to give a more comprehensive reasoning for the final forecast selection.

So an average Irish winter then.

Schadenfreudia

Pat Dunne wrote: »

So an average Irish winter then.

Sounds very like it.....

sryanbruen

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Sounds very like it.....

I feel like crying if it is gonna be average. I want one like 2009 or 2010!!!

droidman123

sryanbruen wrote: »

I feel like crying if it is gonna be average. I want one like 2009 or 2010!!!

What makes people think its going to be an average winter for us?

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

What makes people think its going to be an average winter for us?

Oh I dunno, maybe the above forecast?

droidman123

Carnacalla wrote: »

Oh I dunno, maybe the above forecast?

The above forecast? Ok so all of a sudden someone can forecast irelands weather 2 months in advance?

sryanbruen

droidman123 wrote: »

What makes people think its going to be an average winter for us?

El Nino which gives many different types of weather

For example of El Nino events

Winter 2009/10 - Exceptionally cold, dry and sunny.
Winter 2006/07 - Very mild and wet but sunny.
Winter 2004/05 - Mild, dry and average sunshine (at least here).
Winter 2002/03 - Mild, dry and exceptionally sunny.
Winter 1997/98 - Unseasonably mild, average rainfall and dull.

Plus every month (except January and April in parts) has been colder than normal and thus, mother nature might have a funny idea to warm up the last few months. I dunno, Ireland's weather is very changeable.

Also, the El Nino in Winter 1997/98 was the strongest one ever recorded and scientists say this one this year could potentially beat that and could have the same effects that Winter had on Ireland.

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

The above forecast? Ok so all of a sudden someone can forecast irelands weather 2 months in advance?

You can forecast anything
Can you forecast accurately is another thing.
It's the most likely outcome of what current forecasters have, so yes you can.

Also, I answered your question. That's what's making us think it will be an average winter.

droidman123

Carnacalla wrote: »

You can forecast anything
Can you forecast accurately is another thing.
It's the most likely outcome of what current forecasters have, so yes you can.

Also, I answered your question. That's what's making us think it will be an average winter.

Yes i know anyone can forecast something, but my point is in relation to the weather if it cant be forecast reasonably accurate, what is the point in forecasting it at all for months ahead? If you read the forecast its waffle. We might have a cold spell in janurary with some warm spells, winds will be variable, we could have a mildish november and we might have some stormy spells. I mean seriously!! They are not the exact words, but more or less what it says. Anyway my point is, some people actually take that forecast on board, which i find incredible.

I have a feeling it's going to be 1990's mild, as in roses in December/January mild.

sryanbruen

Deleted User wrote: »

I have a feeling it's going to be 1990's mild, as in roses in December/January mild.

Can you give me an example please in the 1990's?

Like Winter 1989/1990? Winter 1997/98?

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

Can you give me an example please in the 1990's?

Like Winter 1989/1990? Winter 1997/98?

No I can't remember specifics, on average it was much milder, I remember roses growing in our garden.

There were some cold snaps like in 95 when doing the Junior Cert but that was also the year of the best summer I remember.

sryanbruen

Deleted User wrote: »

No I can't remember specifics, on average it was much milder, I remember roses growing in our garden.

There were some cold snaps.

Well the ones I mentioned were among the warmest. Anyway I hope this Winter is not at all like them!

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

Well the ones I mentioned were among the warmest. Anyway I hope this Winter is not at all like them!

Don't we all ! anyway I meant 95 doing the Junior cert mocks ! god so old :eek:

FWVT

droidman123 wrote: »

Yes i know anyone can forecast something, but my point is in relation to the weather if it cant be forecast reasonably accurate, what is the point in forecasting it at all for months ahead? If you read the forecast its waffle. We might have a cold spell in janurary with some warm spells, winds will be variable, we could have a mildish november and we might have some stormy spells. I mean seriously!! They are not the exact words, but more or less what it says. Anyway my point is, some people actually take that forecast on board, which i find incredible.

He has signaled nothing significant until well into the new year. That in itself is significant in that we can probably expect an average winter up to about February. Average means a mix of all those events listed. Just because he didn't forecast anything extraordinary for that period does not mean the forecast is less accurate. You've been reading too many tabloids

droidman123

FWVT wrote: »

He has signaled nothing significant until well into the new year. That in itself is significant in that we can probably expect an average winter up to about February. Average means a mix of all those events listed. Just because he didn't forecast anything extraordinary for that period does not mean the forecast is less accurate. You've been reading too many tabloids

Haha on the contrary, the tabloids are just as full of waffle. So, you believe the weather can be reasonably forecast up to feburary?

Gonzo

Ive a feeling it will be another mild winter, mild being the current 'normal' for Irish winters. Since 1991 Ive only seen 3 maybe 4 winters with decent snowfall.

FWVT

droidman123 wrote: »

Haha on the contrary, the tabloids are just as full of waffle. So, you believe the weather can be reasonably forecast up to feburary?

I don't believe for a minute that we can forecast individual weather events for months ahead, however we can estimate the likelihood of certain trends based on large-scale patterns and teleconnections now and known analogues from the past. It is not an exact science but then neither is forecasting 24 hours ahead.

droidman123

FWVT wrote: »

I don't believe for a minute that we can forecast individual weather events for months ahead, however we can estimate the likelihood of certain trends based on large-scale patterns and teleconnections now and known analogues from the past. It is not an exact science but then neither is forecasting 24 hours ahead.

No we cannot estimate the weather forecast for months ahead for ireland by ANY means, science or large scale patterns or any other methods. Its all mystic meg guesswork and nothing else.we cannot estimate the any trends either. The weather patterns are way to diverse and changeable due to our location. That "forecast" above gave specifics for janurary and feburary, thats when i knew the cabaret had started.

q85dw7osi4lebg

The trees of North Dublin seem to have gone bare overnight. Colourful footpaths.

HighLine

droidman123 wrote: »

No we cannot estimate the weather forecast for months ahead for ireland by ANY means, science or large scale patterns or any other methods. Its all mystic meg guesswork and nothing else.we cannot estimate the any trends either. The weather patterns are way to diverse and changeable due to our location. That "forecast" above gave specifics for janurary and feburary, thats when i knew the cabaret had started.

+1000!! It's funny though... the national rags are rightly slated on here for their "Coldest winter in 50 years" headlines but for some reason a "forecast" on here predicting the weather 4 months ahead seems reasonable.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

Ive a feeling it will be another mild winter, mild being the current 'normal' for Irish winters. Since 1991 Ive only seen 3 maybe 4 winters with decent snowfall.

Decent snowfall in my definition:

*March 2013
*December 2010
*November 2010
*January 2010
*December 2004 (White Christmas)
*February 2001
*November 1996
*December 1993
*February 1991

So that would count as 6 Winters with some heavy snow (at least 15cm recorded) in my area.

Plus it's confusing that you say "Another mild" when last Winter was colder than normal - not exceptionally so. Are you referring to the Winter before that which was very mild?

droidman123

HighLine wrote: »

+1000!! It's funny though... the national rags are rightly slated on here for their "Coldest winter in 50 years" headlines but for some reason a "forecast" on here predicting the weather 4 months ahead seems reasonable.

i agree 100%, and the reasons given are that the maddens and the ken rings are doing it to make money,which is totally irrelevant.just because someone is forecasting for fun or whatever it doesn't make it anymore believeable. I will ask people on here,in all honesty, do you believe what mt cranium said "might" or "possibly" or "could" happen in jan/feb?i doubt it,so as I have stated earlier,what is the point in anyone forecasting or trending on what could happen so far ahead? and btw I mean anyone,not just mt

hotwhiskey

sryanbruen wrote: »

Decent snowfall in my definition:

*March 2013
*December 2010
*November 2010
*January 2010
*December 2004 (White Christmas)
*February 2001
*November 1996
*December 1993
*February 1991

So that would count as 6 Winters with some heavy snow (at least 15cm recorded) in my area.

Plus it's confusing that you say "Another mild" when last Winter was colder than normal - not exceptionally so. Are you referring to the Winter before that which was very mild?

29 Jan 2015 - 20cm+

Schadenfreudia

hotwhiskey wrote: »

29 Jan 2015 - 20cm+

Not here, sadly

sryanbruen

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Not here, sadly

Yep last Winter I recorded NO snowfall not even on the 13th January when I heard loads of parts recorded snowfall.

joujoujou

Snow summary for period 01.10.2014 to 15.04.2015

Days with snow falling 28
Days with snow lying at 0900 21

Schadenfreudia

joujoujou wrote: »

Snow summary for period 01.10.2014 to 15.04.2015

Days with snow falling 28
Days with snow lying at 0900 21

Where??? :eek:

FWVT

droidman123 wrote: »

No we cannot estimate the weather forecast for months ahead for ireland by ANY means, science or large scale patterns or any other methods. Its all mystic meg guesswork and nothing else.we cannot estimate the any trends either. The weather patterns are way to diverse and changeable due to our location. That "forecast" above gave specifics for janurary and feburary, thats when i knew the cabaret had started.

So El Niño, PDO, AMO, MJO, etc. are all pie in the sky? While some of these are not that useful for our latitudes, the PDO and AMO have affected long-term trends in our area by promoting more positive or negative NAO, which in turn filters down to more progressive or retrogressive patterns in Europe.

The difference between the forecast above and the tabloid twaddle is that the latter doesn't care for accuracy or scientific reasoning, only the same copy 'n pasted superlatives and lies.

FWVT

sryanbruen wrote: »

Decent snowfall in my definition:

*March 2013
*December 2010
*November 2010
*January 2010
*December 2004 (White Christmas)
*February 2001
*November 1996
*December 1993
*February 1991

So that would count as 6 Winters with some heavy snow (at least 15cm recorded) in my area.

Plus it's confusing that you say "Another mild" when last Winter was colder than normal - not exceptionally so. Are you referring to the Winter before that which was very mild?

When you say at least 15 cm do you mean total of the accumulated snowfalls or 15 cm of lying snow?