Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

Anyone know whether Joe bastardi released a Euro winter forecast ?

I lost interest in Joe since he doesn't have a Euro forecast or blog any more, it's as if he was told not to.

gerrybhoy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Anyone know whether Joe bastardi released a Euro winter forecast ?

I lost interest in Joe since he doesn't have a Euro forecast or blog any more, it's as if he was told not to.

http://notrickszone.com/2015/09/21/joe-bastardi-sees-possible-nasty-winter-shaping-up-in-europe-as-north-atlantic-cold-expands/#sthash.PX3nxB0c.dpbs

Schadenfreudia

gerrybhoy wrote: »

http://notrickszone.com/2015/09/21/joe-bastardi-sees-possible-nasty-winter-shaping-up-in-europe-as-north-atlantic-cold-expands/#sthash.PX3nxB0c.dpbs

So...Joe sees a possible “Nasty Winter Shaping Up” in Europe as North Atlantic Cold Expands!

My problem with Joe (who otherwise seems like a nice guy) is that he sees a "nasty winter" coming every year!

sryanbruen

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

So...Joe sees a possible “Nasty Winter Shaping Up” in Europe as North Atlantic Cold Expands!

My problem with Joe (who otherwise seems like a nice guy) is that he sees a "nasty winter" coming every year!

Don't we all hahaha. Last year, they said we could of been in for the snowiest and coldest in like 50 years and what it was a very unremarkable cold and snowless Winter. I broke one record however, it was my sunniest Winter on record (LTAs of average: December 194%, January 229%, February 118%). Hopefully, this one speaks to their words :rolleyes:

Oneiric 3

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

So...Joe sees a possible “Nasty Winter Shaping Up” in Europe as North Atlantic Cold Expands!

My problem with Joe (who otherwise seems like a nice guy) is that he sees a "nasty winter" coming every year!

JB's quote from that article:

"You folks in Europe you watch that cold pool. The fact that it’s getting this far south like this, starting to cool the water near Spain. That’s – the water is warming up here near Iceland – this is gonna promote more ridging in this area of the world. And when there’s ridging in Iceland and Greenland, look out! If that mean trough sinks further south in the North Atlantic, it looks like a nasty winter shaping up, especially for the UK. And we’re telling people that.”

I'm in a 1974 buzz today, but look that this cold Atlantic pool in back in January '74. That month, and the following Feb, ended up mild and zonal throughout.



It could be argued that this year, warmer seas around Iceland/Greenland etc are more enhanced relative to the current cold pool (which looks to be weakening on a daily basis for the time-being) but just look at the maps for this time last year. Seas temp anomalies around Iceland and that general area were even warmer than currently and I don't recall us getting a severely cold winter 2014/2015 as a result? 'Northern ridging' was not a feature if I remember correctly (it was such a boring winter anyway that I have almost forgot it at this stage)

Not saying Joe the Bastard is going to be wrong, but can't help but think that more and more we are seeing winter forecasts being issued not as objective experiment, but more just to cater for those who 1. desperately want to hear such things and 2. to promote the idea that climate change is totally flawed and the we will experience cold no matter what dem feckers say!

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

JB's quote from that article:

"You folks in Europe you watch that cold pool. The fact that it’s getting this far south like this, starting to cool the water near Spain. That’s – the water is warming up here near Iceland – this is gonna promote more ridging in this area of the world. And when there’s ridging in Iceland and Greenland, look out! If that mean trough sinks further south in the North Atlantic, it looks like a nasty winter shaping up, especially for the UK. And we’re telling people that.”

I'm in a 1974 buzz today, but look that this cold Atlantic pool in back in January '74. That month, and the following Feb, ended up mild and zonal throughout.



It could be argued that this year, warmer seas around Iceland/Greenland etc are more enhanced relative to the current cold pool (which looks to be weakening on a daily basis for the time-being) but just look at the maps for this time last year. Seas temp anomalies around Iceland and that general area were even warmer than currently and I don't recall us getting a severely cold winter 2014/2015 as a result? 'Northern ridging' was not a feature if I remember correctly (it was such a boring winter anyway that I have almost forgot it at this stage)

Not saying Joe the Bastard is going to be wrong, but can't help but think that more and more we are seeing winter forecasts being issued not as objective experiment, but more just to cater for those who 1. desperately want to hear such things and 2. to promote the idea that climate change is totally flawed and the we will experience cold no matter what dem feckers say!

Last Winter wasn't that boring if you think about it for a moment, especially compared to the Winter of 2012/13.

*Sunniest Winter on record for me
*Storm Rachel
*Coldest February since 1986 - not really snowy though
*Explosive cyclogenesis on 9th/10th December

Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen wrote: »

Last Winter wasn't that boring if you think about it for a moment, especially compared to the Winter of 2012/13.

*Sunniest Winter on record for me
*Storm Rachel
*Coldest February since 1986 - not really snowy though
*Explosive cyclogenesis on 9th/10th December

Well....Storm Rachel was a very damp squid (as Bertie would say) here on the Southside. There was more wind last night.

I have no memory of the "explosive cyclogenesis"!

sryanbruen

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Well....Storm Rachel was a very damp squid (as Bertie would say) here on the Southside. There was more wind last night.

I have no memory of the "explosive cyclogenesis"!

Look at it here on the 9th/10th December

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDe3OntkIJw

WheatenBriar

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

JB's quote from that article:

"You folks in Europe you watch that cold pool. The fact that it’s getting this far south like this, starting to cool the water near Spain. That’s – the water is warming up here near Iceland – this is gonna promote more ridging in this area of the world. And when there’s ridging in Iceland and Greenland, look out! If that mean trough sinks further south in the North Atlantic, it looks like a nasty winter shaping up, especially for the UK. And we’re telling people that.”

I'm in a 1974 buzz today, but look that this cold Atlantic pool in back in January '74. That month, and the following Feb, ended up mild and zonal throughout.



It could be argued that this year, warmer seas around Iceland/Greenland etc are more enhanced relative to the current cold pool (which looks to be weakening on a daily basis for the time-being) but just look at the maps for this time last year. Seas temp anomalies around Iceland and that general area were even warmer than currently and I don't recall us getting a severely cold winter 2014/2015 as a result? 'Northern ridging' was not a feature if I remember correctly (it was such a boring winter anyway that I have almost forgot it at this stage)

Not saying Joe the Bastard is going to be wrong, but can't help but think that more and more we are seeing winter forecasts being issued not as objective experiment, but more just to cater for those who 1. desperately want to hear such things and 2. to promote the idea that climate change is totally flawed and the we will experience cold no matter what dem feckers say!

Aye,but last winter we had exceptionally cold air exiting canada and the states again scuppering any high creation, we're hardly going to see that for the fourth year in a row?
It should be interesting this year what happens if that ingredient in missing?

Oneiric 3

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Aye,but last winter we had exceptionally cold air exiting canada and the states again scuppering any high creation, we're hardly going to see that for the fourth year in a row?
It should be interesting this year what happens if that ingredient in missing?

It'll be interesting to see but I hope it will be as interesting to experience.

I think it'll just shape up as it wants to shape up, regardless of whatever indices and indexes are at play. Intense northern or eastern blocking can occur regardless of the AMO/NINO/PDO/QBO etc state, as can intense zonality. There is too much spread in correlations between either them to be anyway certain of how these may directly influence.

simmon75

hi I was just wondering will Ireland get the worst weather in 2015 and 2016 since 1962 and 1963

DOCARCH

simmon75 wrote: »

hi I was just wondering will Ireland get the worst weather in 2015 and 2016 since 1962 and 1963

Depends on which newspaper you read...:p

Nobody can tell in advance, that's the simple answer.

Gonzo

DOCARCH wrote: »

Depends on which newspaper you read...:p

Nobody can tell in advance, that's the simple answer.

you can always bet on the Sun newspaper for 'worst winter ever on the way Ireland will be battered by snowstorms' style headlines each and every winter. Sky News then reads out these headlines and generally tries to believe in them.

youreadthat

To be fair 2% of the time they're right every time.

Schadenfreudia

simmon75 wrote: »

hi I was just wondering will Ireland get the worst weather in 2015 and 2016 since 1962 and 1963

That's what we are all wondering!

Speak Now

simmon75 wrote: »

hi I was just wondering will Ireland get the worst weather in 2015 and 2016 since 1962 and 1963

According to my seasonal forecast NO

pauldry

I think theres potential for a very cold spell this Winter but im only guessing.

The prevailing wind will be a Northwesterly a lot due to the more bent than normal jetstream n a cold atlantic pool mentioned before will help

In any case lots of hailstones for sure as last january we had 19days of hailstones and 4 with white roads at some point of the day in north sligo.

Something like that at least is likely but I tend to think some more snowy days in the north and west also...more so away from the coast.

Metmaster

Everything is really going for a colder than normal winter just because of our unusually cold summer but that doesnt always indicate an unusually cold winter so its just a waiting game. Maybe around mid november we will be able to see how december and january will shape up. Time will tell.

Xenji

simmon75 wrote: »

hi I was just wondering will Ireland get the worst weather in 2015 and 2016 since 1962 and 1963

Honestly if you say no you will be flamed and if you scientifically back up your facts you will be called a witch :pac:

Longtime posters here seem to get crucified over winter predictions, when they are infallible about the rest of the year!

hatrickpatrick

I reckon ramping becomes socially acceptable in ~3 weeks. Someone wake me up if the time comes sooner

youreadthat

The best part of ramping is when it's being done in 15C in mid March.

lapua20grain

Xenji wrote: »

Honestly if you say no you will be flamed and if you scientifically back up your facts you will be called a witch :pac:

Longtime posters here seem to get crucified over winter predictions, when they are infallible about the rest of the year!

Have to agree i very rarely post on weather forums very aggressive posters. you mention that you have seen snow the first post you get is "proof" as if you would lie about it.

gilly0512

Pat Dunne wrote: »

So an average Irish winter then.

Sounds good to me M.T., I'm a huge fan of dry, mild winters, I don't mind the cold too much, but at the end of the day any winter is good to me where we don't get any of the white stuff

sryanbruen

gilly2308 wrote: »

Sounds good to me M.T., I'm a huge fan of dry, mild winters, I don't mind the cold too much, but at the end of the day any winter is good to me where we don't get any of the white stuff

without "white stuff" (SNOW) it is not a true Winter in my definition

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

Unfortunately, my area has been wetter than normal too but also quite sunnier than normal. Statistics - yes I know this isn't my "soapbox" as I've been argued to about before but this is to compare with others. First percentage is % of LTA rainfall, deviation of average is temperature and second percentage is % of LTA sunshine.

January - Dry and relatively cold. Sunniest January on record. 49%, -0.8c, 229%

February - Dry and sunny but very cold. 64%, -1.2c, 116%

March - Relatively wet and cold but very sunny. 118%, -0.8c, 150%

April - Sunniest April on record. Very dry and cold (due to nights). 46%, -0.7c, 167%

May - Wettest May on record. Very cold and dull. 291%, -1.7c, 82%

June - Cold during most of the month. Mainly sunny and very dry. 31%, -0.7c, 112%

July - Second dullest July on record. Very cold and wet. 173%, -1.2c, 67%

August - Very wet second half. Mainly sunny and cold. 135%, -1.2c, 115%

September - Extremely wet on individual days but very sunny and cold. 115%, -1.9c, 140%

October (so far) - At my driest October on record, relatively sunny and cold. 13%, -0.5c, 44%

No month has been warmer than normal so far. May and July were some of the poorest months I ever came across - along with August 2008 & 2011, March 2013, January 2013, June 2012, July 2012. Anyway, back to the thread title, I hope this Winter is like the Winter of 2010/11 without that February.

With this, I also meant to put in this attachment

q85dw7osi4lebg

Where's the cold at? Where are the bunnies?

Loughc

Mayson Polite Warmonger wrote: »

Where's the cold at? Where are the bunnies?

Conceding defeat I'd imagine. I see no other signs other than a mild damp winter ahead.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Loughc wrote: »

Conceding defeat I'd imagine. I see no other signs other than a mild damp winter ahead.

I hope you're wrong but I feel you're right.

ferretr33

As Above I think you may be wright:( been watching the treads over the last few years and this year by the slowest! Think my self we will be in for a Windy, Mild, and wet winter ahead!

ferretr33

ferretr33 wrote: »

As Above I think you may be wright:( been watching the treads over the last few years and this year by the slowest! Think my self we will be in for a Windy, Mild, and wet winter ahead!

What did I tell yez ? :pac: read back my winter prediction !