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Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,428 ✭✭✭droidman123


    FWVT wrote: »
    So El Niño, PDO, AMO, MJO, etc. are all pie in the sky? While some of these are not that useful for our latitudes, the PDO and AMO have affected long-term trends in our area by promoting more positive or negative NAO, which in turn filters down to more progressive or retrogressive patterns in Europe.

    The difference between the forecast above and the tabloid twaddle is that the latter doesn't care for accuracy or scientific reasoning, only the same copy 'n pasted superlatives and lies.

    Yes the tabloid twaddle doesnt doesnt care about accuracy, but caring about accuracy is irrelevant, it still doesnt make a 2/3 month forecast anyway near accurate and never will. In relation to el nino, pdo, amo, etc, yes they actually are pie in the sky in relation to telling me even reasonably what the weather will be like in ireland in dec/jan/feb.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,532 ✭✭✭✭joujoujou
    Unregistered Users


    Where??? :eek:
    Palmfield City, Mayo/Roscommon boundary, 130m ASL. :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,524 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    FWVT wrote: »
    When you say at least 15 cm do you mean total of the accumulated snowfalls or 15 cm of lying snow?

    Yeah which was recorded in my area during those months


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    joujoujou wrote: »
    Palmfield City, Mayo/Roscommon boundary, 130m ASL. :p

    No wonder we prefer the Beasterlies on this side of the island!

    ps...is there really a place called Palmfield City in Mayo/Roscommon? :confused:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 922 ✭✭✭FWVT


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Yeah which was recorded in my area during those months

    Which?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 97 ✭✭Yodeling Snake


    Our maritime climate ensures as usual we'll have a mild wet and windy winter with the odd occasional frosty spell. Extreme events such as the deep freezes of those two freak winters in a row we had a few years back are highly unlikely.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Extreme events such as the deep freezes of those two freak winters in a row we had a few years back are highly unlikely.

    We get them on average about once every seven years (though they tend to cluster a bit) - so there is always hope. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,524 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    FWVT wrote: »
    Which?

    The months I mentioned which are in the quote you quoted


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 97 ✭✭Yodeling Snake


    We get them on average about once every seven years (though they tend to cluster a bit) - so there is always hope. :)

    Not like the two deep freezes that went on for weeks and weeks two years in a row like a few years back. We don't get those every 7 years mate. The last time we had a cold spell that lasted weeks like those two recent ones was November 84. As I said and I'll repeat myself again we don't get those. We may get a week long freeze once every seven years but the deep freezes I'm referring to of recent years that went on for weeks are extremely rare occurrences.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 922 ✭✭✭FWVT


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    The months I mentioned which are in the quote you quoted
    When you say at least 15 cm do you mean total of the accumulated snowfalls or 15
    cm of lying snow?

    This is what I originally asked. Which does your 15 cm refer to, total accumulations for each of the periods you mentioned or the depth of lying snow measured during the each period. You answered Yes.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,524 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    FWVT wrote: »
    This is what I originally asked. Which does your 15 cm refer to, total accumulations for each of the periods you mentioned or the depth of lying snow measured during the each period. You answered Yes.

    Oh sorry my mistake, I didn't read it properly. The total accumulations.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,191 ✭✭✭Eugene Norman


    Yes i know anyone can forecast something, but my point is in relation to the weather if it cant be forecast reasonably accurate, what is the point in forecasting it at all for months ahead? If you read the forecast its waffle. We might have a cold spell in janurary with some warm spells, winds will be variable, we could have a mildish november and we might have some stormy spells. I mean seriously!! They are not the exact words, but more or less what it says. Anyway my point is, some people actually take that forecast on board, which i find incredible.

    I'm going to predict the future weather for Ireland in the next few months as getting colder, then warming as spring arrives. Then warmer again.
    This will last through the summer, at the end of which I expect it to get colder through Autumn and colder again through winter. I'm basing this on effects on the weather caused by the angle of the earth.

    So that's predicting the future right there.

    MT Cranium is clearly a scientist and his predictions are based on a bit more than the earths rotation but include the oscillations and changes in temperature in the oceans, and more.

    He's taken seriously here because he has form. Not only are his weekly reports often more accurate than the met office( not always but often) his winter reports are accurate. Including if I recall the 2010 forecast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,428 ✭✭✭droidman123


    I'm going to predict the future weather for Ireland in the next few months as getting colder, then warming as spring arrives. Then warmer again.
    This will last through the summer, at the end of which I expect it to get colder through Autumn and colder again through winter. I'm basing this on effects on the weather caused by the angle of the earth.

    So that's predicting the future right there.

    MT Cranium is clearly a scientist and his predictions are based on a bit more than the earths rotation but include the oscillations and changes in temperature in the oceans, and more.

    He's taken seriously here because he has form. Not only are his weekly reports often more accurate than the met office( not always but often) his winter reports are accurate. Including if I recall the 2010 forecast.

    It doesnt matter if he is a scientist ir a postman, he still cant predict the weather for 2/3 months time. Btw, i dont mean to single anyone out, i am talking in general, nobody can predict it. Its delusional to think it can be done and i dont buy into any fervor that erupts when anyone tries to predict heavy snow or storms or any other kind of weather that far into the future. Its disingenuous but there are enough naive people to buy into it


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,524 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    It doesnt matter if he is a scientist ir a postman, he still cant predict the weather for 2/3 months time. Btw, i dont mean to single anyone out, i am talking in general, nobody can predict it. Its delusional to think it can be done and i dont buy into any fervor that erupts when anyone tries to predict heavy snow or storms or any other kind of weather that far into the future. Its disingenuous but there are enough naive people to buy into it

    I made a prediction in January 2011 that there would be snow in my area exactly on the 13 December of that year. I couldn't believe I was right and everyone else in my school couldn't either.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,494 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    It doesnt matter if he is a scientist ir a postman, he still cant predict the weather for 2/3 months time. Btw, i dont mean to single anyone out, i am talking in general, nobody can predict it. Its delusional to think it can be done and i dont buy into any fervor that erupts when anyone tries to predict heavy snow or storms or any other kind of weather that far into the future. Its disingenuous but there are enough naive people to buy into it
    someday someone will crack it. We need people like MT to be trying at least


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Not like the two deep freezes that went on for weeks and weeks two years in a row like a few years back. We don't get those every 7 years mate. The last time we had a cold spell that lasted weeks like those two recent ones was November 84. As I said and I'll repeat myself again we don't get those. We may get a week long freeze once every seven years but the deep freezes I'm referring to of recent years that went on for weeks are extremely rare occurrences.

    December 2010 was completely exceptional but the freeze still only lasted 4 weeks with a break in the middle!

    But we had "weeks long" deep freeze conditions here in 78/79, 80/81, 82, 86, 01, 09, 10 - that's seven times in the past 35 years...once every 5 years!

    We had a month long freeze in Feb 86...but no snow; we had a foot of snow in 87 - but it lasted only 4 days. No recollection of November 84...

    I think, mate, you'd need to define what you mean by a "weeks long deep freeze" before we trade memories/records ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,524 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    December 2010 was completely exceptional but the freeze still only lasted 4 weeks with a break in the middle!

    But we had "weeks long" deep freeze conditions here in 78/79, 80/81, 82, 86, 01, 09, 10 - that's seven times in the past 35 years...once every 5 years!

    We had a month long freeze in Feb 86...but no snow; we had a foot of snow in 87 - but it lasted only 4 days. No recollection of November 84...

    I think, mate, you'd need to define what you mean by a "weeks long deep freeze" before we trade memories/records ;)

    Though me and you weren't alive, go and check out the Winters of 1946/47 and 1962/63 if you haven't already :)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Though me and you weren't alive, go and check out the Winters of 1946/47 and 1962/63 if you haven't already :)

    Well, I can't include them 'cos I'd miss all the bits in between, In terms of severity + longevity nothing has matched them; Dec 10 was colder than either and snowy...but not as long as either or as snowy as '47.

    There was a very cold and snowy spell in Dublin in 1969 for about three weeks...it was during a school strike...they were still talking about it as recently as '75!

    (there is a brilliant book about the snow of 1947 http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/ireland/article842857.ece)

    OK - try this link instead

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/ireland/article842857.ece


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,524 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Well, I can't include them 'cos I'd miss all the bits in between, In terms of severity + longevity nothing has matched them; Dec 10 was colder than either and snowy...but not as long as either or as snowy as '47.

    There was a very cold and snowy spell in Dublin in 1969 for about three weeks...it was during a school strike...they were still talking about it as recently as '75!

    Yeah.. did you ever hear about the England snow on 2 June 1975? :D Thank god this June wasn't like that despite the cold!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Yeah.. did you ever hear about the England snow on 2 June 1975? :D Thank god this June wasn't like that despite the cold!

    Yep...there were photos in the papers of cricket stumps covered in snow at abandoned matches !

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/magazine/content/story/462037.html


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,360 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I am not sure I understand how a forecast of a variety of weather types is "waffling" when this is quite often the case? I have made some effort to say which of the various possible weather regimes will be frequent in this variable period. I've also said that the second half of the winter looks colder than average.

    So how does that all equate to waffling? Would you demand that a seasonal forecast pick one weather type and exclude all others? I don't expect that, and I don't think many seasons turn out that way.

    People might have noticed that I did not stress a lot of rain or very mild weather, but I did call for the first part of the winter to have frequent bland conditions similar to the past few days. I also mentioned that northerly flow might be a prominent component of this mixed period. So I feel that I have made an effort to be rather specific about the pattern I'm expecting and I take exception with the trivial criticism that this is "waffling." It is no such thing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Though me and you weren't alive, go and check out the Winters of 1946/47 and 1962/63 if you haven't already :)

    Would loved to have lived through both of those winters, but I reckon 1962-1963 was probably just a colder and windier version of 2009-2010.

    The blizzard of 24 - 26th Feb 1947 is something so rare in Ireland that I doubt we'll see the likes of it again for many many years. I recall my grandmother telling me that after the blizzard was over, the only parts of the houses that were visible were the chimney pots such was the depth of snow and the level of drifting due to the severe easterly winds.

    This synoptic analysis chart from the UK Met Office for Feb 26th 1947 shows just how nasty that period of weather was with deep Atlantic lows clashing with Arctic air right over Ireland.

    366088.PNG

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 33,730 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Would loved to have lived through both of those winters, but I reckon 1962-1963 was probably just a colder and windier version of 2009-2010.

    The blizzard of 24 - 26th Feb 1947 is something so rare in Ireland that I doubt we'll see the likes of it again for many many years. I recall my grandmother telling me that after the blizzard was over, the only parts of the houses that were visible were the chimney pots such was the depth of snow and the level of drifting due to the severe easterly winds.

    This synoptic analysis chart from the UK Met Office for Feb 26th 1947 shows just how nasty that period of weather was with deep Atlantic lows clashing with Arctic air right over Ireland.

    366088.PNG

    I would hate that, but then I don't like the cold, would probably mean no power, so no phone as phone goes dead, no internet or TV, roofs collapsing, lots of deaths of people and livestock.

    Stories I heard, the snow was so high that you couldn't see the ditches, cattle were very hungry as the feed from the summer of wasn't good due to a wet summer, stories of cattle eating thatch off roofs. a cousin of mine died as they couldn't get him a doctor.
    Food was still rationed after the war.
    The snow started to melt on St Patricks day, and given how high the drifts were it was into May before all the snow was gone.
    Severe flooding in Kilkenny city, who would joke with the country people on the hills where the snow lasted, about them still having the snow. They would be told they would get it in water. It must have been near record flooding going from pictures.
    An estimated 600 people died and thousands of livestock died due to hunger and cold.

    It would be interesting to see but I think it would turn quickly into misery.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,524 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    For predicting, I always strangely look back at years with the same calendar. Since 1993, I have had a White Christmas on every year that it fell on a Saturday - probably just a coincidence. You may think I'm a weirdo for doing this but I'm going through some recent years with the same calendar in individual months (doesn't have to be the whole year).

    2009, 2010 & 2011
    December 2009: Coldest December for over 30 years. Mainly wet but very sunny.
    January 2010: Coldest January for 25 years. Dry and very sunny.
    February 2011: Mildest February since 1998. Very wet at times and becoming sunny during the month.

    1998, 1999 & 2000
    December 1998: Mild, relatively wet and dull.
    January 1999: Sunny, mild and wet.
    February 2000: Relatively dry, sunny and very mild.

    1992, 1993 & 1994
    December 1992: Dry and sunny but cold.
    January 1993: Frequently wet and stormy. Very mild and extremely dull.
    February 1994: Relatively cool. Very dull and wet.

    As according to recent times of the same calendar, the weather is again very unpredictable and the calendar is not helping at all for me. But as I said, let's wait 'til mid November and let Winter be what it wants to be.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,428 ✭✭✭droidman123


    I am not sure I understand how a forecast of a variety of weather types is "waffling" when this is quite often the case? I have made some effort to say which of the various possible weather regimes will be frequent in this variable period. I've also said that the second half of the winter looks colder than average.

    So how does that all equate to waffling? Would you demand that a seasonal forecast pick one weather type and exclude all others? I don't expect that, and I don't think many seasons turn out that way.

    People might have noticed that I did not stress a lot of rain or very mild weather, but I did call for the first part of the winter to have frequent bland conditions similar to the past few days. I also mentioned that northerly flow might be a prominent component of this mixed period. So I feel that I have made an effort to be rather specific about the pattern I'm expecting and I take exception with the trivial criticism that this is "waffling." It is no such thing.

    I dont "demand" anything. I treat all long rang forecasts with a pinch of salt from all forecasters. I really dont get what part of my posts people dont get, irelands weather cannot be forecast one or two months ahead. The "waffling" part is when someone throws in so many different scenarios and variables, that some of them are bound to be correct and its completely pointless. I understand there are different reasons that you and the likes of madden and ring give their long range predictions, but the end result is the same.... It cant be done


  • Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭kittyn


    Why can't people ignore forecasts if they don't believe they are possible or just waffle ???

    MT puts a lot of effort and his own time into the forecasts he delivers here.

    Are we starting the bickering early?? Is it any wonder posters stop posting here so often 😡


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,736 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Decent snowfall in my definition:

    *March 2013
    *December 2010
    *November 2010
    *January 2010
    *December 2004 (White Christmas)
    *February 2001
    *November 1996
    *December 1993
    *February 1991

    So that would count as 6 Winters with some heavy snow (at least 15cm recorded) in my area.

    Plus it's confusing that you say "Another mild" when last Winter was colder than normal - not exceptionally so. :confused: Are you referring to the Winter before that which was very mild?

    in the above years only 2010, 2001 and 1991 were good here. We had 2009 as well. March 2013 had several brief moments of snow which fell overnight and melted by noon each day which was a let down as the March sun melted snow on sight. March snow in general really annoys me because it's too little too late and rarely lasts more than a few hours.

    December 2004 delivered about 3 inchs of snow during Christmas day here. It was great for the day that was in it but in terms of snowfall didnt last more than 4 or 5 hours on the ground before melting rapidly during nightfall.

    The 1996 failed to happen here, there was loads of snow from blanch on wards into Dublin but not a flake fell here. (perhaps it was the IOM Shadow). 1993 I really don't remember anything from that year.

    Decent snowfall in my definition is snow at least 4 or 5 inchs deep lasting several days on the ground.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    The "waffling" part is when someone throws in so many different scenarios and variables, that some of them are bound to be correct and its completely pointless.

    Discussing the possible deviations and the reasons for them is not "waffling", and to refer to it as such is both rude and ignorant.

    The fact that we can't yet predict reliably 4 months ahead does not change that.

    Even the Met Office has resumed "seasonal" forecasts, so the phrase "you and the likes of madden and ring" is ignorant and uncalled for - why not say "you and the British Met Office"? :mad:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,428 ✭✭✭droidman123


    kittyn wrote: »
    Why can't people ignore forecasts if they don't believe they are possible or just waffle ???

    MT puts a lot of effort and his own time into the forecasts he delivers here.

    Are we starting the bickering early?? Is it any wonder posters stop posting here so often 😡

    Whos bickering? Its called adult debate. I have to make it clear i have no doubt about the effort mt cranium puts in to his forecasts and i have no doubt he knows his stuff,, a hell of a lot more about the subject than i do, but thats not what my posts are about


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Gonzo wrote: »

    Decent snowfall in my definition is snow at least 4 or 5 inchs deep lasting several days on the ground.

    I'd take an inch or two that lasted un-melted for a week, as can happen in late December/early Jan with an easterly.

    Lovely powdery snow and sub-zero days.....


This discussion has been closed.
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