Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

JCX BXC

The summer is almost over (a week left) and with such a disappointing season I'm starting to think about winter.

What weather effects should we expect from'El Niño'?


Mod Note
We agreed last year to confine sensationalist tabloid weather stories to the Weather in the Media thread so please post any tabloid headlines/links there.
Thanks

maquiladora

What about autumn? :P

Gonzo

after 5 failed winters in a row I feel were due another 'beast from the east' hopefully this winter.

dexter647

maquiladora wrote: »

What about autumn? :P

It's amazing we got till the end of August before the winter thread was set up imo....Going to be a cold one;)

Rock Lesnar

I'll take anything as long its not rain, saturated ground and floodng.

Dry Sunny with top temps of -5 will do nicely

JCX BXC

Add occasional snow to that and then you have an ideal winter.

Rock Lesnar

Carnacalla wrote: »

Add occasional snow to that and then you have an ideal winter.

A lot of snow would be nice, but due to the dreaded IOM Shadow, i'll take occasional.

M.T. Cranium

This is not offered as a prediction but as long as that colder than normal Atlantic pool remains a factor, it would be difficult for the atmosphere to respond in any other way than unsettled to stormy and not particularly mild either. This feature has been quite stubborn over the past several months and shows little signs of changing soon.

This would also pretty much guarantee that the autumn won't be a lot different in trends from this past summer, at best it would be near normal and likely wetter and slightly cooler than average.

JCX BXC

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

A lot of snow would be nice, but due to the dreaded IOM Shadow, i'll take occasional.

I'd prefer to be in the IOM shadow than in west Clare!

JJJJNR

No snow, dry with occasional rain and not dropping below 10c.

Thanks.

JCX BXC

JJJJNR wrote: »

No snow, dry with occasional rain and not dropping below 10c.

Thanks.

Either your looking at the wrong season or the wrong country!

Lucreto

It's that time of year again.

This thread is permanently open on my browser/ tablet and my F5 is ready and waiting.

I hope for cold and snowy weather but I am expecting stormy weather instead with above average temperatures.

I hope America don't steal Winter 3 years in a row

vistafinder

Watch the Azores high coming closer for about 5 months now that this thread is started.

AMKC

dexter647 wrote: »

It's amazing we got till the end of August before the winter thread was set up imo....Going to be a cold one;)

I really hope you are wrong. I thought last years winter was lovely if we get another winter like that I will be very happy barely had any reason to turn the heating on at all as it was a lovely mild winter.
Another mild winter please.

Loughc

Gonzo wrote: »

after 5 failed winters in a row I feel were due another 'beast from the east' hopefully this winter.

People thought we were due one last year too. Statistically we rarely get bad winters like 5 years ago so you might be waiting.

Iancar29

vistafinder wrote: »

Watch the Azores high coming closer for about 5 months now that this thread is started.

"Well don't mind if i dooooooo "

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

What about autumn? :P

It's just finishing! :P


Can see the logic in M.Ts forecast. If the seas and air masses in the nearby N. Atlantic remain cooler than normal this winter then it may help to create more vigorous storms if tropical air masses are thrown into the area. I for one won't be complaining if this was to happen. It has been a long time since I have seen a good old fashion 80 mph storm with lightning ripping across the night sky. This is what the Irish winter should be about!

Calibos

AMKC wrote: »

I really hope you are wrong. I thought last years winter was lovely if we get another winter like that I will be very happy barely had any reason to turn the heating on at all as it was a lovely mild winter.
Another mild winter please.

Well insulated house or no females living in the house?

JCX BXC

Looking at the Met Éireann forecast for next week ahead, temperatures could dip below 0c in rural areas! This is providing an Azores High builds up north of us driving cold winds down. Winter starting already?

I'll take cold and dry! Hopefully clear skies too:P

Tindie

I love to be very snowy winter , like 2010 and 2013

If the UK gets one flake of snow or a polar vortex , you know the county will come to a stand still

JCX BXC

Tindie wrote: »

I love to be very snowy winter , like 2010 and 2013

If the UK gets one flake of snow or a polar vortex , you know the county will come to a stand still

2013? 2013 was one of the worst winters, we didn't get 1 bit of lying snow here in west Clare.

Tindie

Carnacalla wrote: »

2013? 2013 was one of the worst winters, we didn't get 1 bit of lying snow here in west Clare.

January 2013 was very snowy, in the midlands , It was snowing most of January .

I

Metmaster

Tindie wrote: »

I love to be very snowy winter , like 2010 and 2013

If the UK gets one flake of snow or a polar vortex , you know the county will come to a stand still

Exactly!! Its hard to tell how things will go at the moment just because its quite a long way off but we should be seeing a few changes in the coming weeks. Heres to a cold and snowy one

JCX BXC

Any of the Infamous long-range forecasters release any forecasts yet? Id be interested in reading how certain stars have aligned causing us the coldest winter in 100 years again.

Tindie

Gritters prepare for winter in Lincolnshire

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-34096333

delahuntv

Carnacalla wrote: »

Any of the Infamous long-range forecasters release any forecasts yet? Id be interested in reading how certain stars have aligned causing us the coldest winter in 100 years again.

consdering how wrong they have been, I'd say they are keeping fairly quiet.

Here's the summer 2015 forecast from one well-known person from the southern hemisphere about Irish weather for Summer just gone.

"What’s in store for summer 2015?

Summer will be sunnier than the average, with warmer maxima and average minima, and average rainfall overall for the country.

There will be a wide variance between the north and south, with the north having a drier and warmer summer than the south, and with most counties enjoying a sunnier summer than average."

Metmaster

delahuntv wrote: »

consdering how wrong they have been, I'd say they are keeping fairly quiet.

Here's the summer 2015 forecast from one well-known person from the southern hemisphere about Irish weather for Summer just gone.

"What’s in store for summer 2015?

Summer will be sunnier than the average, with warmer maxima and average minima, and average rainfall overall for the country.

There will be a wide variance between the north and south, with the north having a drier and warmer summer than the south, and with most counties enjoying a sunnier summer than average."

True i never take long range forecasters forecasts on board you can only forecast somewhat accurately a couple of weeks in advance not a couple of months.

mandylevo

My winter prediction is that James Madden will predict the next iceage again ....

Hooter23

mandylevo wrote: »

My winter prediction is that James Madden will predict the next iceage again ....

Yes your right I saw it in The Star newspaper today he was talking about the gulf stream slowing down since the end of last year and how cold this winter would be as he usually says...

Metmaster

Hooter23 wrote: »

Yes your right I saw it in The Star newspaper today he was talking about the gulf stream slowing down since the end of last year and how cold this winter would be as he usually says...

Wouldnt worry about it, they say the same thing every year. But they will eventually be right it might be this year and might not (hope it is tho were due a cold one)

pauldry

I think MT is right. The cooler than average trend will continue. This will increase the risk of a colder spell but a lot of the times temperatures will be borderline for heavy snow i think. Maybe 5 to 8c instead of 2 to 5c or 3 to 6c.

This is only going by the dominating pattern of temperature averages over the past few months.

Theres a good chance of 20c next Monday though! :rolleyes:

JCX BXC

Hopefully we may get some sort of freak event this year where west clare gets snow :D

hotwhiskey

The first person who posts in this thread "Were's my snow" or "When will it snow in my back garden" You have been warned I do have Liam Neeson phone number.

Loughc

Dear diary,

Snow watch day 2.

Still no snow.

snowstreams

pauldry wrote: »

I think MT is right. The cooler than average trend will continue. This will increase the risk of a colder spell but a lot of the times temperatures will be borderline for heavy snow i think. Maybe 5 to 8c instead of 2 to 5c or 3 to 6c.
....

5-8c could still mean plenty of snow on the highest mountains though. If it stays like that all winter the higher peaks (750m +) could get a nice build up on them similar to what happens in Scotland above 600m.

JCX BXC

Feeling cold in the wind today, that northerly wind is a killer.
I dont mind it in January though, brings some of the white glory :P

ComfortKid

Not mad about snow but I would love a few weeks of -5.

Don't usually get the wintery feel until the clocks go back, cant wait for the nice cosy dark evenings by the stove.

Tindie

Daily express were at yet again
Saying they bec snow this weekend

Ibwish

Oneiric 3

Tindie wrote: »

Daily express were at yet again
Saying they bec snow this weekend

You read the Daily Express? Nun slap for you.

Tindie

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You read the Daily Express? Nun slap for you.

I didn't read it ,
I heard about it lol

dasa29

Hi guys was talking to my sister on how below average the August IMT temp was and She reminded me that the August 2010 IMT was also below average here are the numbers that I have.

Average IMT's for the five stations in the monthly boards forecast contest.
1961 - 1990 - 14.7
1971 - 2000 - 15.1
1681 - 2010 - 15.3

Data from monthly boards forecast Contest
August 2010 _ August 2015
"IMT 14.2 C _ "IMT 14.0
max temp 24.2 _ MAX 24.2
min temp 0.6 _ MIN 3.5
rainfall 52% _ PRC 106%
sunshine 133%" _ sunshine 100%"

Now I don't know if this means anything or not but just thought I should mention it.

Also checked the IMT's for 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014.
August 13.6, 15.7, 15.7, 14.0.

Pappacharlie

After another 12 months of winter its nice to be talking about another 9 months of winter!! Do you get what I mean?

lycan238

In all honesty I am unsure what I want weather wise for this winter. Yes would love snow but at same time dont like the frosty mornings.

Iancar29

lycan238 wrote: »

In all honesty I am unsure what I want weather wise for this winter. Yes would love snow but at same time dont like the frosty mornings.

JCX BXC

Who doesn't love frosty mornings!

lycan238

Carnacalla wrote: »

Who doesn't love frosty mornings!

Ok let me try and explain. I have no problem in waking up 15 mins early defrosting car thoroughly and leaving said 15 mins early for my destination. The problem arises when I drive my car onto the roads outside of the housing estate and other cars are either A not fully defrosted or B been driven without due care and attention to the road conditions (nearly had about 5 accidents due to this last year and none my fault). I find with snow that although some cars dont have clear windscreens most drivers make a far better effort than with frost and problem B is 99% solved as drivers can actually see the snow on the ground and slow down.

JCX BXC

Not frosty mornings, more the ice and disruption caused by a snow/severe cold event?

lycan238

Carnacalla wrote: »

Not frosty mornings, more the ice and disruption caused by a snow/severe cold event?

Yes ice more so than snow/sever cold event. I still have photos of the countryside from winter of 2010 on my camera.

ComfortKid

lycan238 wrote:

Ok let me try and explain. I have no problem in waking up 15 mins early defrosting car thoroughly and leaving said 15 mins early for my destination. The problem arises when I drive my car onto the roads outside of the housing estate and other cars are either A not fully defrosted or B been driven without due care and attention to the road conditions (nearly had about 5 accidents due to this last year and none my fault). I find with snow that although some cars dont have clear windscreens most drivers make a far better effort than with frost and problem B is 99% solved as drivers can actually see the snow on the ground and slow down.

So you don't like driving in the frost but don't mind the snow? Hmm. You mostly can't see snow on the roads because it turns to a filthy grey slush. Snow also makes visibility alot worse. Your windows will still need thawing out with snow.

Il take 120 frosty mornings every year if we could

lycan238

ComfortKid wrote: »

So you don't like driving in the frost but don't mind the snow? Hmm. You mostly can't see snow on the roads because it turns to a filthy grey slush. Snow also makes visibility alot worse. Your windows will still need thawing out with snow.

Il take 120 frosty mornings every year if we could

As I said in my post I have no problem getting up earlier fully defrosting my car windows and leaving earlier for my destination taking into account possible icy conditions as I clarified after my previous post. Most of my problems lie with drivers who get up at normal time don't take the extra time to fully defrost their vehicles and then drive to their destination during which due to their windscreens not being fully defrosted they have a reduced level of visibility during their journey. Also not taking into account a greater breaking distance in icy conditions (again clarified during previous response)

Regarding snow I appreciate my previous post was vague but snow even if it has turned to mush is still more visible than ice (especially black ice) on most if not all roads.

ronnie3585

Carnacalla wrote: »

Who doesn't love frosty mornings!

Golfers.