Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

Loughc

Deleted User wrote: »

What did I tell yez ? :pac: read back my winter prediction !

Easily the safest prediction to make every year haha. :pac:

q85dw7osi4lebg

I may have to travel for this winters cold / snow fix

Loughc

Loughc wrote: »

Easily the safest prediction to make every year haha. :pac:

Indeed , but the problem here is that anything can happen and IMO there is probably a 20-30% max change of a proper 2010-11 ? winter in Ireland by our latitude and Atlantic dominance.

Even though the Atlantic is in a Record ? cold spell it's still warm enough that when the lows come off the Atlantic there is sufficient warmth to keep us a few Deg C. I don;t know how long, if the Atlantic is to continue to cool who knows what winters we'll get in the future !

Our only hope is for a prolonged blocking High over Iceland , so here's hoping.

I do know for certain that it's not nearly as mile on average compared to the 90's and 00's.

kittyn

Jeeze lads don't give up yet sure winter hasn't even started yet 😆

No one is giving up, far from it !

q85dw7osi4lebg

Keep the notifications coming

Very mild throughout Eastern / North East US, wonder how long it can stay in the 20's this late in the year.


On another note I see upper European slopes are opening on time if even early this season. Google La Plagne / Hintertux webcams if you need a cold fix.

Sometimes a warm U.S means a cold Europe, meaning when the U.S is normally cold in winter Europe is generally cold.

Elmer Blooker

This may look like a chart for the coming weekend but it isn't!
This was the warmest November day ever in Ireland, 20c. The winter that followed was probably very mild too!

Gonzo

temps in southern england and London could reach 21C over the next few days according to sky news. The next week looks exceptionally mild across much of Ireland, UK, Netherlands, Belgium and into Germany.

JCX BXC

Could we be in for a blast of cold soon after just as seen in 2010?

sryanbruen

Deleted User wrote: »

Sometimes a warm U.S means a cold Europe, meaning when the U.S is normally cold in winter Europe is generally cold.

Very true!

Big example was back in February 1991 when parts of eastern US including New York reached around 20-22c and their average maximum is below 6c! Whilst we were under a very cold easterly flow with snowfall.

My proof can be seen here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hd6DuebHliY

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

temps in southern england and London could reach 21C over the next few days according to sky news. The next week looks exceptionally mild across much of Ireland, UK, Netherlands, Belgium and into Germany.

The highest I heard that could happen in the UK is 19c on Halloween.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Carnacalla wrote: »

Could we be in for a blast of cold soon after just as seen in 2010?

We can at least dream.

How November 2010 played out for reference.

1st to 18th: A period of very unsettled weather, as a series of deep depressions moved quickly
eastwards close to or over Ireland. These produced spells of rain or showers each day, together with
stormy weather at times, resulting in very high seas on western coasts. The heaviest rain fell over
the west of the country, where some falls were thundery and accompanied by hail. Temperatures
were above normal with infrequent air frost; the first four days of the month were particularly mild
for November. After a very dull start, the period around mid-month was relatively sunny.

19th to 26th: Pressure rose over Ireland as an anticyclone developed in mid-Atlantic. Winds veered
to a north or northeasterly direction, bringing progressively colder conditions, with frost becoming
widespread. Rainfall amounts in most inland and southern areas were small, but showers were
frequent in coastal areas and were heavy near the east coast on the 22nd. Most days during this
period were sunny.

27th to 30th: As the anticyclone shifted to the far northwest of Ireland, a bitterly cold northeasterly
airstream brought a sharp drop in temperatures across the country. Wintry showers, initially in
coastal areas of the east and northwest, became more widespread during the period, resulting in
accumulations of snow over most of the country. Showers were thundery at times in eastern areas.
Exceptionally low air and ground temperatures were measured in Leinster on the 28th and 29th, but
severe frost was widespread, with freezing fog in places.

sryanbruen

Mayson Polite Warmonger wrote: »

We can at least dream.

How November 2010 played out for reference.

1st to 18th: A period of very unsettled weather, as a series of deep depressions moved quickly
eastwards close to or over Ireland. These produced spells of rain or showers each day, together with
stormy weather at times, resulting in very high seas on western coasts. The heaviest rain fell over
the west of the country, where some falls were thundery and accompanied by hail. Temperatures
were above normal with infrequent air frost; the first four days of the month were particularly mild
for November. After a very dull start, the period around mid-month was relatively sunny.

19th to 26th: Pressure rose over Ireland as an anticyclone developed in mid-Atlantic. Winds veered
to a north or northeasterly direction, bringing progressively colder conditions, with frost becoming
widespread. Rainfall amounts in most inland and southern areas were small, but showers were
frequent in coastal areas and were heavy near the east coast on the 22nd. Most days during this
period were sunny.

27th to 30th: As the anticyclone shifted to the far northwest of Ireland, a bitterly cold northeasterly
airstream brought a sharp drop in temperatures across the country. Wintry showers, initially in
coastal areas of the east and northwest, became more widespread during the period, resulting in
accumulations of snow over most of the country. Showers were thundery at times in eastern areas.
Exceptionally low air and ground temperatures were measured in Leinster on the 28th and 29th, but
severe frost was widespread, with freezing fog in places.

November 2010 was one of the most perfect months for me ever! The sunshine wasn't too warm and there was plenty - what I love! Plenty of snowfall at the end of the month.

My favourite months ever weather wise

1. December 2010
2. November 2010
3. March 2011
4. April 2011
5. March 2012
6. December 2009
7. June 2010
8. November 2011
9. July 2006
10. July 2013
11. June 2006
12. September 2014
13. July 2014
14. June 2014
15. April 2014
16. November 2014
17. August 2010
18. September 2010
19. October 2010
20. November 2009 - I love the rain of this month - same with 2014
21. December 2001
22. April 2007
23. April 2015

As ya can see, I really had a passion for 2010 and 2014 . What are your favourite months ever? Are there any Winter months that ya wish this Winter would repeat again? I definitely would love a repeat of November and December 2010 - or the whole of 2010 for that matter - because it was a perfect year for weather here. I wasn't alive during the 1995 Summer - am I lucky or very unlucky for that? but I'm sure at least one of the months during that Summer would make it to my favourites! Anyway... as I said what are your favourite months ever weather wise and are any of them Winter months? If yes, then do you wish they would repeat again?

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Sometimes a warm U.S means a cold Europe, meaning when the U.S is normally cold in winter Europe is generally cold.

Hmmm to many days on shift this week. haha

but ye know what I meant lol

Sometimes a warm U.S means a cold Europe, meaning when the U.S is normally warm in winter Europe is generally cold.

Elmer Blooker

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

This may look like a chart for the coming weekend but it isn't!
This was the warmest November day ever in Ireland, 20c. The winter that followed was probably very mild too!

Imagine the sensational pro Global warming headlines if that were today ?

If I remember correctly the first of the really cold winters we had had a really mild and very wet November with lots of flooding ? 2010 ?

sryanbruen

Deleted User wrote: »

Imagine the sensational pro Global warming headlines if that were today ?

If I remember correctly the first of the really cold winters we had had a really mild and very wet November with lots of flooding ? 2010 ?

No that was 2009 which was the wettest month on record in places, including Valentia Observatory which recorded 345mm.

See this for example of a deluge in Cumbria (worst affected area during the month) on the 19th November 2009 - wettest day on record in the UK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gS31aySTfaA

On the same day, Cork Airport recorded 51mm.

Another link here on the 13th which was a huge low covering nearly all of the country overnight. The winds were exceptionally strong.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8stSbT_M1Kw

sryanbruen

Watch this about 2010's snowfall and cold weather

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dIzjwLikbQ

Calibos

I'm the STATman...Bebop de be do bop....

jack o shea

5 months of mild wet **** weather for us.

jirafa

What are the prospects for the weather in the coming winter? Jeff Knight, from the Met Office Monthly to Decadal Prediction team explains.


http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/10/29/what-are-the-prospects-for-the-weather-in-the-coming-winter/

Westernyelp

jack o shea wrote: »

5 months of mild wet **** weather for us.

A bit like summer so

Gonzo

I never believe any of those winter predictions, no matter how reliable the source is. 9 times out of 10 they are wrong or very far off the mark. We can kinda see what's happening up to 2 to 3 weeks from now but nobody has a bulls clue what the weather will be like this December, January or February. Same with the summer predictions, rarely ever work out the way the experts say. I'll just take each week as it happens and go from there.

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

I never believe any of those winter predictions, no matter how reliable the source is. 9 times out of 10 they are wrong or very far off the mark. We can kinda see what's happening up to 2 to 3 weeks from now but nobody has a bulls clue what the weather will be like this December, January or February. Same with the summer predictions, rarely ever work out the way the experts say. I'll just take each week as it happens and go from there.

Well said Gonzo, for all we know December and January could turn out to be colder than average. Nobody really knows past 3-4 weeks, especially in this volatile part of the world.

droidman123

Gonzo wrote: »

I never believe any of those winter predictions, no matter how reliable the source is. 9 times out of 10 they are wrong or very far off the mark. We can kinda see what's happening up to 2 to 3 weeks from now but nobody has a bulls clue what the weather will be like this December, January or February. Same with the summer predictions, rarely ever work out the way the experts say. I'll just take each week as it happens and go from there.

The funny thing is,there are actually some people on here that have themselves convinced that they CAN predict the weather for Ireland that far ahead,and even funnier,there are some people that actually believe it!

HighLine

droidman123 wrote: »

The funny thing is,there are actually some people on here that have themselves convinced that they CAN predict the weather for Ireland that far ahead,and even funnier,there are some people that actually believe it!

What shocks me is that there are a lot of people!! Funny how none of these long range forecasts picked up on the impending unseasonably mild spell due next week.... but then again, they couldn't possibly because that would have been outside the 10-14 day window that it is possible to predict weather.

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

The funny thing is,there are actually some people on here that have themselves convinced that they CAN predict the weather for Ireland that far ahead,and even funnier,there are some people that actually believe it!

Hahaha its very funny isn't it? All these people aren't exactly James Madden and his followers.

I don't believe you can forecast the weather for 3 months away, but you can describe the most likely possibilities and why you think that. We can compare signs from previous winters to this winter. I'm happy to do this and I'm sure others are too. If you don't agree with this, that's fine you don't need to consistently talk down on the speculation.

droidman123

Carnacalla wrote: »

Hahaha its very funny isn't it? All these people aren't exactly James Madden and his followers.

I don't believe you can forecast the weather for 3 months away, but you can describe the most likely possibilities and why you think that. We can compare signs from previous winters to this winter. I'm happy to do this and I'm sure others are too. If you don't agree with this, that's fine you don't need to consistently talk down on the speculation.

Hold on,forecasting the weather that far ahead and describing the most likely possibilities that far ahead is kind of the same thing.In relation to me consistently talking down on the speculation,why would I not? People consistently try to long range the forecast so would I not have my opinion?

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

Hold on,forecasting the weather that far ahead and describing the most likely possibilities that far ahead is kind of the same thing.In relation to me consistently talking down on the speculation,why would I not? People consistently try to long range the forecast so would I not have my opinion?

I don't accept the "COLEST WINTER IN 600MILLIOM YEARS" headlines. But forecasts that are realistic I will accept. From what I've seen it will be relatively mild until at least December. You can have your opinion like the rest of us without talking down. The above post by Gonzo was perfect for describing your opinion, your list was perfect for trying to silence people.

droidman123

Carnacalla wrote: »

I don't accept the "COLEST WINTER IN 600MILLIOM YEARS" headlines. But forecasts that are realistic I will accept. From what I've seen it will be relatively mild until at least December. You can have your opinion like the rest of us without talking down. The above post by Gonzo was perfect for describing your opinion, your list was perfect for trying to silence people.

Thats not my intention,i,m just living in the real world and not fantasy island and wishful thinking.by your own admission nobody can forecast the weather for 2/3 months ahead but you gripe at me and not the consistant drivel being posted here about "oh i have a feeling we are in for a cold winter" or oh i,m forecasting a mild and damp winter ahead" etc etc. My opinion is based on fact,not what i have a feeling about.