General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary

tipptom

Deleted User wrote: »

Its a worry that Xenophile hasn't mentioned Alan in a while...:D...He is drifting a wee bit with Paddy,but he will probably be the leader when Joan becomes chairless....

If that happens and they are saying Coppinger will take the last seat then she will be the third Taniste in a row to lose their seat.

touts

tipptom wrote: »

If that happens and they are saying Coppinger will take the last seat then she will be the third Taniste in a row to lose their seat.

With Michael Martin looking a good bet to be Tainiste in the next government and struggling a bit in his own constituency (he'll take a seat but they say it might be the 3rd seat, it seems people like their TDs filling potholes and chasing coffins) there is a good possibility of a 4 in a row when FF discover that they aren't immune to the junior party curse that saw the PDs, Greens and Labour all wiped out.

Xenophile

Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies. Groucho Marx !

Aren't we lucky that this des not apply to Tipperary !

touts

Xenophile wrote: »

Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies. Groucho Marx !

Aren't we lucky that this des not apply to Tipperary !

At last. A definition of Irish Politics.


Anyway we're in the last days of General Election 2016 (or at least General Election 2016 Episode 1 - The Phantom Promises). Anyone want to do a prediction game..... I'll start:

Seat 1: Michael Lowry on the first count with close to 2 quotas.
Seat 2: Noel Coonan. Starts mid table on the first count but will get ahead of Hayes on Lowry's Surplus and that will see him home.
Seat 3: Seamus Healy. Clonmel Votes & Seamie Morris's transfers will see him keep his seat.
Seat 4: Jackie Cahill. He'll be behind Smith on the first count but Smith is too isolated up at the Northern end of the constituency and Cahill will be more transfer friendly and will overtake him.
Seat 5: Mattie McGrath: He'll beat Kelly for the last seat because by that time there will be three candidates elected from the North and geography will be a huge factor.
With so many big names on the ballot paper it will be a bad day for the small candidates. Gearóid Fitzgibbon, Marie Murphy & Michael Dillon will all lose their deposits.

Colt Knost

touts wrote: »

At last. A definition of Irish Politics.


Anyway we're in the last days of General Election 2016 (or at least General Election 2016 Episode 1 - The Phantom Promises). Anyone want to do a prediction game..... I'll start:

Seat 1: Michael Lowry on the first count with close to 2 quotas.
Seat 2: Noel Coonan. Starts mid table on the first count but will get ahead of Hayes on Lowry's Surplus and that will see him home.
Seat 3: Seamus Healy. Clonmel Votes & Seamie Morris's transfers will see him keep his seat.
Seat 4: Jackie Cahill. He'll be behind Smith on the first count but Smith is too isolated up at the Northern end of the constituency and Cahill will be more transfer friendly and will overtake him.
Seat 5: Mattie McGrath: He'll beat Kelly for the last seat because by that time there will be three candidates elected from the North and geography will be a huge factor.
With so many big names on the ballot paper it will be a bad day for the small candidates. Gearóid Fitzgibbon, Marie Murphy & Michael Dillon will all lose their deposits.

While im no fan of his, I think you are underestimating Hayes.
He has all of West Tipperary to himself.
Think he will get the second seat
1- Lowry
2- Hayes
3- Cahill
4- Healy
5- Mattie

Xenophile

Siobhan Ambrose will poll better than most people expect and enable to FF Candidates to be elected in the North of the county.

Michael Lowry (Ind)

Tom Hayes (Fine Gael)

Michael Smith (Fianna Fail)

Alan Kelly (Labour)

Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fail

touts

Xenophile wrote: »

Siobhan Ambrose will poll better than most people expect and enable to FF Candidates to be elected in the North of the county.

Michael Lowry (Ind)

Tom Hayes (Fine Gael)

Michael Smith (Fianna Fail)

Alan Kelly (Labour)

Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fail

No way there are two FF seats in North Tipp. That barely happened back in the days when Fianna Fail was getting overall majorities. And I would doubt that there are Four seats in North Tipp. If that happens then the people of South Tipp deserve to have their infrastructure, hospital, schools, etc asset stripped and shipped North because that's basically what will happen if 4 out of the 5 TDs are fighting for the money to go to shore up their home bases in Nenagh, Thurles, Roscrea etc.

realdanbreen

Spare a thought for us voters here in Borrisokane, Co Offaly !:mad:

touts

realdanbreen wrote: »

Spare a thought for us voters here in Borrisokane, Co Offaly !:mad:

Yea ye're rightly screwed. Is there anyone local to you running. If there was I'd be voting for them regardless of party.

realdanbreen

touts wrote: »

Yea ye're rightly screwed. Is there anyone local to you running. If there was I'd be voting for them regardless of party.

Joh Hannigan Ind , yes he will be getting all the no 1' around here.

maudgone

Colt Knost wrote: »

While im no fan of his, I think you are underestimating Hayes.
He has all of West Tipperary to himself.
Think he will get the second seat
1- Lowry
2- Hayes
3- Cahill
4- Healy
5- Mattie

This definitely won't be the result. All candidates from south of Thurles, no representative from Templemore/Roscrea/Nenagh!!!
My prediction is;
1- Lowry
2- Healy
3- Smith
4- Hayes
5- Kelly.
Mattie hasn't got enough first preferences from last time to get near a quota, and he won't get any support from North Tipp.
Coonan was always struggling, and won't be helped by Gleeson's closing, and Roscrea's downgrading of Dean Maxwell home.
Cahill won't get enough support from outside his own area, as Lowry mops up most of the Thurles area.
Nenagh will certainly get one TD in from Kelly/Morris, with Kelly just sneaking in for the last seat.

EternalHope

Where is the count for Tipp being held?

tipptom

maudgone wrote: »

This definitely won't be the result. All candidates from south of Thurles, no representative from Templemore/Roscrea/Nenagh!!!
My prediction is;
1- Lowry
2- Healy
3- Smith
4- Hayes
5- Kelly.
Mattie hasn't got enough first preferences from last time to get near a quota, and he won't get any support from North Tipp.
Coonan was always struggling, and won't be helped by Gleeson's closing, and Roscrea's downgrading of Dean Maxwell home.
Cahill won't get enough support from outside his own area, as Lowry mops up most of the Thurles area.
Nenagh will certainly get one TD in from Kelly/Morris, with Kelly just sneaking in for the last seat.

I agree with most of your lineup,maybe could switch Cahill for Smith but hard to call,cant see Morris being in the shake up for the last seat.

realdanbreen

EternalHope wrote: »

Where is the count for Tipp being held?

The count is being held in Thurles. The count for NorthNorth Tipp is being held in Tullamore!

tipptom

Mattie has called for the end to the free election postage scheme.
Right at the end of the election when I bet Mattie got all his postage out under the free election scheme.

tipptom

tipptom wrote: »

Mattie has called for the end to the free election postage scheme.
Right at the end of the election when I bet Mattie got all his postage out under the free election scheme.

It's ridiculous that, in our case, 4 separate, individually addressed leaflets were posted to our house by most of the candidates.

Xenophile

realdanbreen wrote: »

Joh Hannigan Ind , yes he will be getting all the no 1' around here.

I regret to say that Joe would have been better off to spend his energies as Chairman of the Tipperary football board. Thanks Joe for your efforts on behalf of the footballers. Bet you he will be in Mullingar on Sunday chilling out watching the footballers.

Xenophile

tipptom wrote: »

Mattie has called for the end to the free election postage scheme.
Right at the end of the election when I bet Mattie got all his postage out under the free election scheme.

On a personal level I do not think it will affect Mattie on a personal level in the future !

Xenophile

realdanbreen wrote: »

Spare a thought for us voters here in Borrisokane, Co Offaly !:mad:

You can always make a submission to the Electoral Commission !

Xenophile

realdanbreen wrote: »

The count is being held in Thurles.

Thanks, it makes sense, just off two motorways. In the centre of the county !

haveringchick

Xenophile wrote: »

Thanks, it makes sense, just off two motorways. In the centre of the county !

Where in Thurles? Thanks

Xenophile

haveringchick wrote: »

Where in Thurles? Thanks

Not sure but Thurles is a very small town !

CrowdedHouse

haveringchick wrote: »

Where in Thurles? Thanks

Presentation Secondary School

https://goo.gl/maps/iEBt63K4nsK2

digzy

Xenophile wrote: »

Siobhan Ambrose will poll better than most people expect and enable to FF Candidates to be elected in the North of the county.

Michael Lowry (Ind)

Tom Hayes (Fine Gael)

Michael Smith (Fianna Fail)

Alan Kelly (Labour)

Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fail

TBF Lowry's a cert
Hayes has the west to himself
FF will get one candidate in
healy
1 from mattie/kelly

I think Healy's a cert. He will mop up the anti water charges aaa/pbp vote
Clonmel is too big a town not to have one td.

ibFoxer

realdanbreen wrote: »

Joh Hannigan Ind , yes he will be getting all the no 1' around here.

If i could vote twice for him i would.

touts

digzy wrote: »

TBF Lowry's a cert
Hayes has the west to himself
FF will get one candidate in
healy
1 from mattie/kelly

I think Healy's a cert. He will mop up the anti water charges aaa/pbp vote
Clonmel is too big a town not to have one td.

I'd agree Healy is safe. He's all over Facebook tonight saying that he isn't but that's just his attempt to make sure neither Ambrose or Mattie get in and pose a threat to his Clonmel base next time. Healy would love to be the only TD in the south. He trades on telling people how miserable their lives are and if the south is left behind in the race for investment and jobs that suits Healy.

Use your vote wisely. May the best candidates get elected. Interesting times ahead.

jem

final prediction in order
lowry
hayes
healy
smith
kelly

mattie coming in just short in 6th

Xenophile

jem wrote: »

final prediction in order
lowry
hayes
healy
smith
kelly

mattie coming in just short in 6th

Fair play to you for going public with your predictions, if Healy gets a seat it will be number 5. I regret that his politics have been too negative and he no longer has a big team around him since Clonmel Borough Council has been abolished !

Mr. Guappa

Anyone else get a text yesterday encouraging support for Michael Lowry?

Where is he getting my number from? OH got the same text.