General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary

tipptom · 21-02-2016 6:35pm

EternalHope wrote: »

youd want to be some gombeen to vote for mattie going around in that van. he is like killnascully or ritchie kavanagh. no wonder ireland is in such a state when people like him are in the Dail

Nope.Ireland is in the state it is in because we keep voting in corrupt and incompetent politicians who's only objective is the party over the people.

Einstein must have been thinking of politics in Ireland when he said the definition of Insanity "is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result"

It like a perpetual 5 year Lanigans ball groundhog day.

I wish there was a Social Democrats candidate running in Tipp.

21-02-2016 6:39pm

EternalHope wrote: »

youd want to be some gombeen to vote for mattie going around in that van. he is like killnascully or ritchie kavanagh. no wonder ireland is in such a state when people like him are in the Dail

Or Michael Lowrey and his variety of old VW Beetles chugging aroung the county!

Xenophile · 21-02-2016 6:51pm

tipptom wrote: »

Insanity "is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result"

It like a perpetual 5 year Lanigans ball groundhog day.

We will be lucky if it is not every five months after the results of this election !

digzy · 21-02-2016 7:22pm

The sooner this election is over the better.
Fingers crossed we'll get a Fianna Fáil/ Fine Gael coalition. Fine Gael have been driving with the handbrake on for the last 5 years with labour.

It's only proper order that those who go out to work get to keep a little bit more of their own money without it being squandered into the black hole that social welfare and the hse have become.

The Lost Sheep · 21-02-2016 8:10pm

tipptom wrote: »

[/B] Nope.Ireland is in the state it is in because we keep voting in corrupt and incompetent politicians who's only objective is the party over the people.

Einstein must have been thinking of politics in Ireland when he said the definition of Insanity "is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result"

It like a perpetual 5 year Lanigans ball groundhog day.

I wish there was a Social Democrats candidate running in Tipp.

I agree that would be great to have a Soc Dem candidate running but hopefully if they gain a few seats this time we may see one the next time..
But irish politics is very much sorting out the local people over national issues which is very much the people over the party.....

digzy wrote: »

The sooner this election is over the better.
Fingers crossed we'll get a Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael coalition. Fine Gael have been driving with the handbrake on for the last 5 years with labour.

It's only proper order that those who go out to work get to keep a little bit more of their own money without it being squandered into the black hole that social welfare and the hse have become.

Why would a FF/FG coalition be so great?

digzy · 21-02-2016 8:48pm

The Lost Sheep wrote: »

I agree that would be great to have a Soc Dem candidate running but hopefully if they gain a few seats this time we may see one the next time..
But irish politics is very much sorting out the local people over national issues which is very much the people over the party.....

Why would a FF/FG coalition be so great?

I didn't say 'great'.
Just look at their positions on various topics. Personally speaking the tax rates are a priority. I'd pay less tax with them in than the lefties.

EternalHope · 22-02-2016 3:01pm

tipptom wrote: »

[/B] Nope.Ireland is in the state it is in because we keep voting in corrupt and incompetent politicians who's only objective is the party over the people.

and mattie is competent? he does not give that impression with his music road show

The Lost Sheep · 22-02-2016 3:07pm

digzy wrote: »

I didn't say 'great'.
Just look at their positions on various topics. Personally speaking the tax rates are a priority. I'd pay less tax with them in than the lefties.

I know you didn't but I don't see anything so much better coming from the 2 coming together and being in power. A left dominated government is a must and Ive seen nothing from FF to show that they deserve to be back in power since they left in 2011.

digzy · 22-02-2016 9:12pm

The Lost Sheep wrote: »

A left dominated government is a must .

Why?

The Lost Sheep · 22-02-2016 11:18pm

digzy wrote: »

Why?

Because I don't see why we need yet another completely centric government and we need a distinctly left-wing party to achieve a balance between left wing populism and centrist mediocrity. Ireland will never vote in hard wing left/right parties but we need to go beyond the big parties who never stray far from the centre...

touts · 23-02-2016 6:53am

EternalHope wrote: »

youd want to be some gombeen to vote for mattie going around in that van. he is like killnascully or ritchie kavanagh. no wonder ireland is in such a state when people like him are in the Dail

Is it any worse to vote for a lad like Mattie who while he may be a bit of a gombeen glorified local councilor but seems smart enough or a lad like Smith who has feck all going on between his ears and is running purely on the basis of his father was a minister 20 years ago so the seat is his by right. Neither of them are getting my No.1 but I'll tell you if I needed help it's Mattie I'd prefer to have in my corner than Smith.

zurbfoundation · 23-02-2016 7:09am

I had to look up what the whole "pizzagate" thing was about - must be some Craic in the daíl bar of an evening - Toss Hayes must have had a skinful that night with his four mates to dream up a prank like that. I think even a bunch of 16 year olds would be embarrassed if they were caught doing that.

jem · 23-02-2016 10:03am

touts wrote: »

Is it any worse to vote for a lad like Mattie who while he may be a bit of a gombeen glorified local councilor but seems smart enough or a lad like Smith who has feck all going on between his ears and is running purely on the basis of his father was a minister 20 years ago so the seat is his by right. Neither of them are getting my No.1 but I'll tell you if I needed help it's Mattie I'd prefer to have in my corner than Smith.

Do you know Ml Smith personally to make such a slur?
I do very well.
And what you said couldn't be further from the truth. He is a highly intelligent, motivated young man who has put in a huge amount of work in the past 12 years in his own right.
He is rightly proud of his father but far from sees its his seat by right. Rather he would like to take his hard work to the Dail and represent Tipperary there.
He is definitely getting my No. 1.

touts · 23-02-2016 10:22am

jem wrote: »

Do you know Ml Smith personally to make such a slur?
I do very well.
And what you said couldn't be further from the truth. He is a highly intelligent, motivated young man who has put in a huge amount of work in the past 12 years in his own right.
He is rightly proud of his father but far from sees its his seat by right. Rather he would like to take his hard work to the Dail and represent Tipperary there.
He is definitely getting my No. 1.

I'm basing it on what I heard on the debates and his utter disaster on Vincent Brown when Vincent basically had to push him into saying something before the camera switched off. The lad is utterly unimpressive. Vote Young Smith is his slogan and most of the reasons I've seen to vote for him are things his daddy did 30 years ago. The era of family inheritance is long gone. Cahill, Hayes, Coonan, Ambrose, Healy, Morris, Mattie etc have all come across as much more impressive. I just don't think the lad is remotely at the standard we need in the dail. That's just my personal impression and talking to people I'm not alone in that view. I've yet to meet anyone who thinks he has anything going for him beyond being the sperm that won the race.

jem · 23-02-2016 10:31am

you are very wrong.
on the vb show he was trying to get in a lot.
He did very well in the Tipp FM debate and was excellent at the debate in Roscrea where lowry, kelly coonan the green and dillion were in attendance.
he is a very intelligent hard working politician who has served extremely well for the past 12 years as a Councillor topping the poll the last two and the highest first preferences in all Tipperary.

touts · 23-02-2016 11:24am

jem wrote: »

you are very wrong.
on the vb show he was trying to get in a lot.
He did very well in the Tipp FM debate and was excellent at the debate in Roscrea where lowry, kelly coonan the green and dillion were in attendance.
he is a very intelligent hard working politician who has served extremely well for the past 12 years as a Councillor topping the poll the last two and the highest first preferences in all Tipperary.

I wasnt at the VB debate I only got to see it on the TV but if you were there and say he was trying to get in I'll take your word for it. As to the radio debates he finished up one shouting something about "we're hurling fair" at another candidate and to be honest at that point he lost my vote. It was a real cringe gombeen moment.

Look I hope you are correct. If the newspapers are to be believed he looks like taking a seat so clearly lots of people think he is worth voting for. Its just Tipperary can't afford to send another lad to just make up the numbers. We need strong representatives and I don't see it in him or in many of the Candidates. In comparison when you look at the respective CVs I think Cahill has a proven record at a national level. I think Mattie for all his ills has fought for a lot of issues and people. I think Kelly is obnoxious but he is doing stuff. In comparison I DONT think Hayes, Coonan or Healy are really much good and we hear little from them until they need something from us (I.e votes). My impression of Smith is that he will fall firmly into the latter bunch picking up the cheque and doing little for it.

jem · 23-02-2016 12:12pm

touts wrote: »

I wasnt at the VB debate I only got to see it on the TV but if you were there and say he was trying to get in I'll take your word for it.

I was and he was

touts wrote: »

As to the radio debates he finished up one shouting something about "we're hurling fair" at another candidate and to be honest at that point he lost my vote. It was a real cringe gombeen moment.

Dont agree and kelly turned the whole debate from before it went on air until after it went off air into a total farce. the ego had landed into the bus that day.

touts wrote: »

Look I hope you are correct. If the newspapers are to be believed he looks like taking a seat so clearly lots of people think he is worth voting for. Its just Tipperary can't afford to send another lad to just make up the numbers. We need strong representatives and I don't see it in him or in many of the Candidates. In comparison when you look at the respective CVs I think Cahill has a proven record at a national level. I think Mattie for all his ills has fought for a lot of issues and people. I think Kelly is obnoxious but he is doing stuff. In comparison I DONT think Hayes, Coonan or Healy are really much good and we hear little from them until they need something from us (I.e votes). My impression of Smith is that he will fall firmly into the latter bunch picking up the cheque and doing little for it.

Far from it. he is exceptionally hard working. and works for all in his constituency. I personally called to a house last night which would always have been a very very strong FG house and the chap we met would have been a card carrying member of FG. He needed something looked at over 18 months ago, had asked Coonan a load of times and nothing done eventually went to Smith and was sorted immediately so now voting no 1 Smith .
Look at the taste of Roscrea Christmas market. His brain child that has been on the past 3 years.
This has helped businesses in Roscrea and has raised a huge amount for charity as well.
One thing about smith he does the work as opposed to talking about it unlike many others.
How many other County Councillors have had a staffed office open , paid from their own pocket for years.
TD's do, very very rarely do Councillors. This has been an invaluable resource.

One other thing is that you don't get the vote that he got in the local elections that he did ( the highest in Tipperary) without being a hard worker.

touts · 23-02-2016 1:16pm

jem wrote: »

I was and he was

Dont agree and kelly turned the whole debate from before it went on air until after it went off air into a total farce. the ego had landed into the bus that day.

Far from it. he is exceptionally hard working. and works for all in his constituency. I personally called to a house last night which would always have been a very very strong FG house and the chap we met would have been a card carrying member of FG. He needed something looked at over 18 months ago, had asked Coonan a load of times and nothing done eventually went to Smith and was sorted immediately so now voting no 1 Smith .
Look at the taste of Roscrea Christmas market. His brain child that has been on the past 3 years.
This has helped businesses in Roscrea and has raised a huge amount for charity as well.
One thing about smith he does the work as opposed to talking about it unlike many others.
How many other County Councillors have had a staffed office open , paid from their own pocket for years.
TD's do, very very rarely do Councillors. This has been an invaluable resource.

One other thing is that you don't get the vote that he got in the local elections that he did ( the highest in Tipperary) without being a hard worker.

Ok. Well that's the way he came across to me and to many others. You as a close friend and member of his campaign team think he's great. We clearly won't agree. Good luck to him and to you on the day. If elected I hope he has good committed advisors around him like you.

EternalHope · 23-02-2016 6:14pm

touts wrote: »

Is it any worse to vote for a lad like Mattie who while he may be a bit of a gombeen glorified local councilor but seems smart enough or a lad like Smith who has feck all going on between his ears and is running purely on the basis of his father was a minister 20 years ago so the seat is his by right. Neither of them are getting my No.1 but I'll tell you if I needed help it's Mattie I'd prefer to have in my corner than Smith.

i would not be going to either of them for help so i cannot say which wouldbe better. What could mattie do that smith can't. none of them can get you anything you are not entitled to

EternalHope · 23-02-2016 6:18pm

jem wrote: »

I personally called to a house last night which would always have been a very very strong FG house and the chap we met would have been a card carrying member of FG. He needed something looked at over 18 months ago, had asked Coonan a load of times and nothing done eventually went to Smith and was sorted immediately so now voting no 1 Smith .

could he not have done it himself.

EternalHope · 23-02-2016 6:23pm

The nationalist said mattie was FG

http://www.nationalist.ie/news/home/203011/APOLOGY-TO-MATTIE-McGRATH.html

Mattie smells a conspiracy says he is getting legal advice

Xenophile · 23-02-2016 7:05pm

EternalHope wrote: »

Mattie smells a conspiracy says he is getting legal advice

If Mattie gets elected I wonder will he give a few quid to FG and to The Nationalist for the "fortunate" blunder.

If he is not elected it could have the makings of an interesting court case if The Nationalist does not settle with him in advance. Pity the poor person who made the typo error.

Xenophile · 23-02-2016 7:21pm

The betting in Tipperary has just got very interesting !

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-constituencies?ev_oc_grp_ids=2250577

CrowdedHouse · 23-02-2016 7:28pm

Someone must have put a euro each way on........

Xenophile · 23-02-2016 7:35pm

CrowdedHouse wrote: »

Someone must have put a euro each way on........

A good idea, my money is on ...............................!

touts · 24-02-2016 6:36am

Xenophile wrote: »

The betting in Tipperary has just got very interesting !

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-constituencies?ev_oc_grp_ids=2250577

OK I'll admit I haven't a clue how odds etc work but how exactly is 6 candidates odds on to take a seat in a 5 seat constituency interesting. Throw in Healy at 6/5 and basically you have 7 candidates at pretty much evens or worse. If it was a horse race you'd tell Paddy Power to forget about it. The only one that looks in any way tempting is Ambrose at 25/1. I'd say she has as good a shot as Morris at 7/1 (especially with Cahill and Smith kicking the **** out of each other and dividing the FF vote in a fairly bloody FF Civil War in the North). But Ambrose & Morris are both outsiders so I wouldn't put money on either that I wasn't prepared to lose. How exactly do punters make money at those sorts of crazy odds? Do they do a multiplier on all 5 or something?

zurbfoundation · 24-02-2016 7:33am

Xenophile wrote: »

The betting in Tipperary has just got very interesting !

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-constituencies?ev_oc_grp_ids=2250577

Wonder where they pull these numbers from. Do we really see two new FF TDs in ahead of a sitting FG TD - especially with the Hayes and Lowery transfers to filter down? I don't

touts · 24-02-2016 7:59am

zurbfoundation wrote: »

Wonder where they pull these numbers from. Do we really see two new FF TDs in ahead of a sitting FG TD - especially with the Hayes and Lowery transfers to filter down? I don't

Cahill & Smith's teams are supposed to have spent quite a bit in the bookies. Its a clever tactic in that it gets them in the headlines but in reality it is meaningless as there is no way the two of them are taking seats. One probably but not two.

24-02-2016 9:51am

touts wrote: »

OK I'll admit I haven't a clue how odds etc work but how exactly is 6 candidates odds on to take a seat in a 5 seat constituency interesting. Throw in Healy at 6/5 and basically you have 7 candidates at pretty much evens or worse. If it was a horse race you'd tell Paddy Power to forget about it. The only one that looks in any way tempting is Ambrose at 25/1. I'd say she has as good a shot as Morris at 7/1 (especially with Cahill and Smith kicking the **** out of each other and dividing the FF vote in a fairly bloody FF Civil War in the North). But Ambrose & Morris are both outsiders so I wouldn't put money on either that I wasn't prepared to lose. How exactly do punters make money at those sorts of crazy odds? Do they do a multiplier on all 5 or something?

It wouldn't be unusual for candidates to spend some of their campaign money betting on themselves in order to raise their profile. You will notice that the only bookies quoted are Paddy Powers, so they don't seem to be spreading the money around, as that wouldn't have the effect they want.

24-02-2016 8:30pm

Its a worry that Xenophile hasn't mentioned Alan in a while...:D...He is drifting a wee bit with Paddy,but he will probably be the leader when Joan becomes chairless....

tipptom · 24-02-2016 9:37pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Its a worry that Xenophile hasn't mentioned Alan in a while...:D...He is drifting a wee bit with Paddy,but he will probably be the leader when Joan becomes chairless....

If that happens and they are saying Coppinger will take the last seat then she will be the third Taniste in a row to lose their seat.

touts · 25-02-2016 6:10am

tipptom wrote: »

If that happens and they are saying Coppinger will take the last seat then she will be the third Taniste in a row to lose their seat.

With Michael Martin looking a good bet to be Tainiste in the next government and struggling a bit in his own constituency (he'll take a seat but they say it might be the 3rd seat, it seems people like their TDs filling potholes and chasing coffins) there is a good possibility of a 4 in a row when FF discover that they aren't immune to the junior party curse that saw the PDs, Greens and Labour all wiped out.

Xenophile · 25-02-2016 6:56am

Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies. Groucho Marx !

Aren't we lucky that this des not apply to Tipperary !

touts · 25-02-2016 7:11am

Xenophile wrote: »

Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies. Groucho Marx !

Aren't we lucky that this des not apply to Tipperary !

At last. A definition of Irish Politics.

Anyway we're in the last days of General Election 2016 (or at least General Election 2016 Episode 1 - The Phantom Promises). Anyone want to do a prediction game..... I'll start:

Seat 1: Michael Lowry on the first count with close to 2 quotas.
Seat 2: Noel Coonan. Starts mid table on the first count but will get ahead of Hayes on Lowry's Surplus and that will see him home.
Seat 3: Seamus Healy. Clonmel Votes & Seamie Morris's transfers will see him keep his seat.
Seat 4: Jackie Cahill. He'll be behind Smith on the first count but Smith is too isolated up at the Northern end of the constituency and Cahill will be more transfer friendly and will overtake him.
Seat 5: Mattie McGrath: He'll beat Kelly for the last seat because by that time there will be three candidates elected from the North and geography will be a huge factor.
With so many big names on the ballot paper it will be a bad day for the small candidates. Gearóid Fitzgibbon, Marie Murphy & Michael Dillon will all lose their deposits.

Colt Knost · 25-02-2016 9:16am

touts wrote: »

At last. A definition of Irish Politics.

Anyway we're in the last days of General Election 2016 (or at least General Election 2016 Episode 1 - The Phantom Promises). Anyone want to do a prediction game..... I'll start:

Seat 1: Michael Lowry on the first count with close to 2 quotas.
Seat 2: Noel Coonan. Starts mid table on the first count but will get ahead of Hayes on Lowry's Surplus and that will see him home.
Seat 3: Seamus Healy. Clonmel Votes & Seamie Morris's transfers will see him keep his seat.
Seat 4: Jackie Cahill. He'll be behind Smith on the first count but Smith is too isolated up at the Northern end of the constituency and Cahill will be more transfer friendly and will overtake him.
Seat 5: Mattie McGrath: He'll beat Kelly for the last seat because by that time there will be three candidates elected from the North and geography will be a huge factor.
With so many big names on the ballot paper it will be a bad day for the small candidates. Gearóid Fitzgibbon, Marie Murphy & Michael Dillon will all lose their deposits.

While im no fan of his, I think you are underestimating Hayes.
He has all of West Tipperary to himself.
Think he will get the second seat
1- Lowry
2- Hayes
3- Cahill
4- Healy
5- Mattie

Xenophile · 25-02-2016 1:19pm

Siobhan Ambrose will poll better than most people expect and enable to FF Candidates to be elected in the North of the county.

Michael Lowry (Ind)

Tom Hayes (Fine Gael)

Michael Smith (Fianna Fail)

Alan Kelly (Labour)

Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fail

touts · 25-02-2016 1:26pm

Xenophile wrote: »

Siobhan Ambrose will poll better than most people expect and enable to FF Candidates to be elected in the North of the county.

Michael Lowry (Ind)

Tom Hayes (Fine Gael)

Michael Smith (Fianna Fail)

Alan Kelly (Labour)

Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fail

No way there are two FF seats in North Tipp. That barely happened back in the days when Fianna Fail was getting overall majorities. And I would doubt that there are Four seats in North Tipp. If that happens then the people of South Tipp deserve to have their infrastructure, hospital, schools, etc asset stripped and shipped North because that's basically what will happen if 4 out of the 5 TDs are fighting for the money to go to shore up their home bases in Nenagh, Thurles, Roscrea etc.

realdanbreen · 25-02-2016 2:01pm

Spare a thought for us voters here in Borrisokane, Co Offaly !:mad:

touts · 25-02-2016 2:05pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Spare a thought for us voters here in Borrisokane, Co Offaly !:mad:

Yea ye're rightly screwed. Is there anyone local to you running. If there was I'd be voting for them regardless of party.

realdanbreen · 25-02-2016 2:15pm

touts wrote: »

Yea ye're rightly screwed. Is there anyone local to you running. If there was I'd be voting for them regardless of party.

Joh Hannigan Ind , yes he will be getting all the no 1' around here.

maudgone · 25-02-2016 3:13pm

Colt Knost wrote: »

While im no fan of his, I think you are underestimating Hayes.
He has all of West Tipperary to himself.
Think he will get the second seat
1- Lowry
2- Hayes
3- Cahill
4- Healy
5- Mattie

This definitely won't be the result. All candidates from south of Thurles, no representative from Templemore/Roscrea/Nenagh!!!
My prediction is;
1- Lowry
2- Healy
3- Smith
4- Hayes
5- Kelly.
Mattie hasn't got enough first preferences from last time to get near a quota, and he won't get any support from North Tipp.
Coonan was always struggling, and won't be helped by Gleeson's closing, and Roscrea's downgrading of Dean Maxwell home.
Cahill won't get enough support from outside his own area, as Lowry mops up most of the Thurles area.
Nenagh will certainly get one TD in from Kelly/Morris, with Kelly just sneaking in for the last seat.

EternalHope · 25-02-2016 3:23pm

Where is the count for Tipp being held?

tipptom · 25-02-2016 3:33pm

maudgone wrote: »

This definitely won't be the result. All candidates from south of Thurles, no representative from Templemore/Roscrea/Nenagh!!!
My prediction is;
1- Lowry
2- Healy
3- Smith
4- Hayes
5- Kelly.
Mattie hasn't got enough first preferences from last time to get near a quota, and he won't get any support from North Tipp.
Coonan was always struggling, and won't be helped by Gleeson's closing, and Roscrea's downgrading of Dean Maxwell home.
Cahill won't get enough support from outside his own area, as Lowry mops up most of the Thurles area.
Nenagh will certainly get one TD in from Kelly/Morris, with Kelly just sneaking in for the last seat.

I agree with most of your lineup,maybe could switch Cahill for Smith but hard to call,cant see Morris being in the shake up for the last seat.

realdanbreen · 25-02-2016 3:43pm

EternalHope wrote: »

Where is the count for Tipp being held?

The count is being held in Thurles. The count for NorthNorth Tipp is being held in Tullamore!

tipptom · 25-02-2016 4:19pm

Mattie has called for the end to the free election postage scheme.
Right at the end of the election when I bet Mattie got all his postage out under the free election scheme.

25-02-2016 5:17pm

tipptom wrote: »

Mattie has called for the end to the free election postage scheme.
Right at the end of the election when I bet Mattie got all his postage out under the free election scheme.

It's ridiculous that, in our case, 4 separate, individually addressed leaflets were posted to our house by most of the candidates.

Xenophile · 25-02-2016 6:10pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Joh Hannigan Ind , yes he will be getting all the no 1' around here.

I regret to say that Joe would have been better off to spend his energies as Chairman of the Tipperary football board. Thanks Joe for your efforts on behalf of the footballers. Bet you he will be in Mullingar on Sunday chilling out watching the footballers.

Xenophile · 25-02-2016 6:14pm

tipptom wrote: »

Mattie has called for the end to the free election postage scheme.
Right at the end of the election when I bet Mattie got all his postage out under the free election scheme.

On a personal level I do not think it will affect Mattie on a personal level in the future !

Xenophile · 25-02-2016 6:18pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Spare a thought for us voters here in Borrisokane, Co Offaly !:mad:

You can always make a submission to the Electoral Commission !

Xenophile · 25-02-2016 6:23pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

The count is being held in Thurles.

Thanks, it makes sense, just off two motorways. In the centre of the county !

General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary

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