General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary

Xenophile

Tipperary North Riding and Tipperary South Riding County Councils have been abolished and in the next General Election Tipperary will be a five seater constituency replacing the two old three seaters.

Who are going to take the seats? Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, and Sinn Fein are very weak in the constituency. The only strong candidate allied to a Party is Alan Kelly of Labour.

Prediction

Mattie McGrath
Michael Lowry
Alan Kelly
A.N.Another
A.N.Another

If Fine Gael could persuade the former Tipperary Hurler, Eoin Kelly to stand he would romp home!

questionmark?

Xenophile wrote: »

Tipperary North Riding and Tipperary South Riding County Councils have been abolished and in the next General Election Tipperary will be a five seater constituency replacing the two old three seaters.

Who are going to take the seats? Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, and Sinn Fein are very weak in the constituency. The only strong candidate allied to a Party is Alan Kelly of Labour.

Prediction

Mattie McGrath
Michael Lowry
Alan Kelly
A.N.Another
A.N.Another

If Fine Gael could persuade the former Tipperary Hurler, Eoin Kelly to stand he would romp home!

Mattie will struggle as he is not as populer as he once was plus the voters in mid and north tipp would not vote for him.

Tom Hayes has a strong enough base out west plus he will gather up the FG votes in other areas.

Alan Kelly is a safe enough bet as well.

Lowry is almost unbackable to get back in.

Is Healy planning to stand again? If he does his power base is very localised to Clonmel which could prove a problem.


So Lowry(Ind), Kelly(Lab), Hayes(FG) I think will get in but unsure about the rest at this time.

touts

There might be two FG seats but lowery has a vice like grip on one of them. He will take a lot of FG votes North and South. He may be independent but as the election approaches he will be constantly linked to propping up a FG government so the links between him and the party will be highlighted over the coming months which may help FG form the next government but will cost them a second seat in Tipp in the election.

That leaves one seat for FG. That's a straight fight between their two sitting TDs. My bet is Hayes will hold his seat. If party HQ parachute in a new candidate like Eoin Kelly there is still only one seat for them. There is no way FG will in effect take three seats out of five (Lowery, Hayes and an other) with the party down significantly from last time. Hayes won't allow someone be parachuted in to take his seat. There was talk about a year ago that Hayes would take over from Sean Barrett and therefore be returned automatically freeing up the FG vote for someone else. But Barrett seems to have survived the threat to his position so that seems unlikely now.

Alan Kelly is a dead man walking. He is really hated by the South Tipp Labour Party so they won't be going out of their way to help him in the south. Labour are in a serious decline and will be lucky to come back with 3-4 TDs and he won't be one of them unless the whole constituency rally around him.

There is probably a FF seat and it looks like Siobhan Ambrose a main candidate for a nomination. She is popular around Clonmel but no county wide profile. But she takes up a gender quota slot so she is almost certain for a nomination through the convention. There will be one FF candidate from the north but there is no clear candidate for that yet. Michael Smith Jr. wants the nomination but he blotted his copybook when he broke ranks to grab the Deputy Mayor of Tiperary job. There was a meeting of senior party members recently at which they were told he was running as Fianna Fáil or he was running as an independent and they could decide. They basically told him to **** off at that point so he is now unlikely to get through a convention. There is talk of them having two conventions North and South.

The big problem for FF is Mattie. He went on the radio with Claire Byrne and basically said he would rejoin FF after the next election when John McGuinness took over as party leader. He claimed hundreds of party members were begging him to rejoin the party. So that's Mattie playing a clever game. He is positioning himself as FF-lite in the national media so he will pick up FF votes in the North. My bet is he will take the FF seat with Ambrose and AN Other losing out. Ambrose however could get a FF nod for the Senate and be there for the seat when Mattie steps down.

Seamus Healy could be in a real scrap for his seat. He has no profile outside Clonmel and the surrounding villages. He will poll very badly in the north. His base ia also a very left wing vote. If you walk around working class estates you often see Healy stickers in the windows. Sinn Fein could threaten that base. As could the various other small left wing parties (anti-austerity alliance etc).

Sinn Fein are apparently sniffing around for a high profile candidate. Historically they have no real presence in the county but if they can parachute someone in and the party keeps rising in the national polls I think they could take a seat. But it all depends on who they pull out of the hat. There is a seat between Healy and Sinn Fein.

Renua will run a candidate. I hear they have lined up a sitting independent councillor. They have to go through the illusion of sitting up a party and holding a convention but a couple of local cllrs have already told their supporters that they are joining Renua and one of those is likely to be the candidate. The problem is they seem stuck on 1-2% so I can't see them taking a seat.

So my bet for the next election is

Lowery Ind
Hayes FG
Mattie Ind
Healy/Sinn Fein
And a real dog fight for the last seat between Ambrose, A Kelly, Coonan, and whoever else pops up.

digzy

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056966425

Why open up a new thread? were you not banging on about this topic already

Xenophile

digzy wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056966425

Why open up a new thread?

The thread you refer to was opened in June 2013, in hindsight a good deal too early, now that it's getting closer to the election I am sure that there are some posters here who may now wish to express an opinion over the course of the next few months!

digzy

The only candidate that has any chance of a cabinet position is Alan Kelly.
Lowry would do a deal with anyone to keep them in.

I don't agree with either of them politically but voting for any of the rest is a wasted vote from a Tipperary point of view IMHO . Fair play to any mature voter who decides from a national view as opposed to local.

I find it impossible that a "Clonmel" candidate wouldn't be returned given the size of the place. Its a fair span from roscrea to Carrick.

Xenophile

digzy wrote: »

Fair play to any mature voter who decides from a national view as opposed to local.

I would agree with the above statement. Some issues even though they are anchored in particular constituencies in an indirect way impact on the country overall and in particular the taxpayer. I cite the following example,

How many people are aware that there is a proposal on the books to upgrade the N20 from Limerick to Cork as part of the "Atlantic Corridor". As part of this plan traffic from Limerick en route to Rosslare would be diverted through Mallow. This would be done at the expense of upgrading the N24. It makes no sense to add so many additional kilometers between Limerick and Waterford, keep in mind that fuel prices will not always be as low as they are now and that there is a very high volume of commercial traffic between Rosslare Port all the way to Sligo.

It has been famously said that "all politics is local" and with this in mind anyone running for election in Tipperary should keep in mind that the N24 runs from Monard on the far side of Limerick Junction to just beyond Carrick- on-Suir all this stretch of roadway is in County Tipperary.

Just take a look at a map and see how far south you would have to travel to arrive in Waterford via Mallow. It just makes no sense especially when one looks at the dangerous and congested state of the N24 through the towns of Tipperary and Carrick-on-Suir and to some extent Clonmel.

Xenophile

Independent Tipperary South TD Seamus Healy is receiving a pension from the HSE.

Why should he run again as he is also entitled to a Dail pension?

If he runs again I think he should try and join Sinn Fein as they are weak in the constituency overall, he is singing from the same hymn sheet as Sinn Fein.

Let him join Sinn Fein and let him help Sinn Fein to become a main stream party of substance. Healy's Independent base has been virtually wiped out since Clonmel Borough was abolished at the last Local elections.

mikemac1

The North of the constituency like Lorrha and Obama country :P leaves the constituency

Won't help Alan Kelly at all. I don't think he will be elected even if he is a minister

digzy

mikemac1 wrote: »

The North of the constituency like Lorrha and Obama country :P leaves the constituency

Won't help Alan Kelly at all. I don't think he will be elected even if he is a minister

My point was that it depends on the voters attitude. I'd imagine we'll get fg/lab plus a few independents or Fianna fail next time.
If you're considering "Tipperary", you want a minister at cabinet. No matter how you look at it politically Kelly being labour 2nd in command is the only one in with a shout. Independents don't get cabinet seats and ff or fg tds will be well down the pecking order. Hayes is junior ag minister. That's as far as he's gonna go.
On the other hand if you're voting locally people will return Mattie and hayes from South tipp anyway possibly Healy? Hayes would have been at family funerals over the years and I'd say he wouldn't know any of us! That stuff seems to matter to some folks though

Personally speaking I don't think it matters a jot who gets in.

I agree 100% with Digzys last line...And I hope the only seat Kelly gets,will be from Larry O' Keeffe....

Xenophile

mikemac1 wrote: »

The North of the constituency like Lorrha and Obama country :P leaves the constituency

Won't help Alan Kelly at all. I don't think he will be elected even if he is a minister

He is working hard in Southern end with a full time staff member employed in an office in a prime location in Clonmel.

Xenophile

Deleted User wrote: »

I agree 100% with Digzys last line...And I hope the only seat Kelly gets,will be from Larry O' Keeffe....

Of course it matters, on the other hand they are all on ego trips, no difference between the ego trip of Hilary Clinton and Alan Kelly, it's just a matter of some egos being more intelligent than others!

jem

touts wrote: »

There might be two FG seats but lowery has a vice like grip on one of them. He will take a lot of FG votes North and South. He may be independent but as the election approaches he will be constantly linked to propping up a FG government so the links between him and the party will be highlighted over the coming months which may help FG form the next government but will cost them a second seat in Tipp in the election.

That leaves one seat for FG. That's a straight fight between their two sitting TDs. My bet is Hayes will hold his seat. If party HQ parachute in a new candidate like Eoin Kelly there is still only one seat for them. There is no way FG will in effect take three seats out of five (Lowery, Hayes and an other) with the party down significantly from last time. Hayes won't allow someone be parachuted in to take his seat. There was talk about a year ago that Hayes would take over from Sean Barrett and therefore be returned automatically freeing up the FG vote for someone else. But Barrett seems to have survived the threat to his position so that seems unlikely now..

Agree one seat for FG. coonan waiting to see if FF run Smith if they do , he wont stand, if they don't then he will.

touts wrote: »

Alan Kelly is a dead man walking. He is really hated by the South Tipp Labour Party so they won't be going out of their way to help him in the south. Labour are in a serious decline and will be lucky to come back with 3-4 TDs and he won't be one of them unless the whole constituency rally around him.

Agree, the candidate from Roscrea in locals that almost made it has left labour. Kelly despised in North End as well as south.Also a large part around Nenagh gone into Offaly

touts wrote: »

There is probably a FF seat and it looks like Siobhan Ambrose a main candidate for a nomination. She is popular around Clonmel but no county wide profile. But she takes up a gender quota slot so she is almost certain for a nomination through the convention. There will be one FF candidate from the north but there is no clear candidate for that yet. Michael Smith Jr. wants the nomination but he blotted his copybook when he broke ranks to grab the Deputy Mayor of Tiperary job. There was a meeting of senior party members recently at which they were told he was running as Fianna Fáil or he was running as an independent and they could decide. They basically told him to **** off at that point so he is now unlikely to get through a convention.

This did not happen, Smith didn't tell anyone that he would stand as independant. Also that is untrue with regard to the "Deputy Mayor of Tiperary job." there was a shaft done with regard to the Chairman of the Thurles/ Templemore area, Smith was nominated by the non FF/Fg members came to a tie and he voted for himself.
Will be a very interesting convention and will largely depend on one for whole of tipp or one for North and one for south, if the latter will be a straight fight between smith and cahil for nomination- hanifin has pulled out and hogan has as much chance as yogi bear.

touts wrote: »

The big problem for FF is Mattie. He went on the radio with Claire Byrne and basically said he would rejoin FF after the next election when John McGuinness took over as party leader. He claimed hundreds of party members were begging him to rejoin the party. So that's Mattie playing a clever game. He is positioning himself as FF-lite in the national media so he will pick up FF votes in the North. My bet is he will take the FF seat with Ambrose and AN Other losing out. Ambrose however could get a FF nod for the Senate and be there for the seat when Mattie steps down.

Thing is Mattie has very little support up North, and Lowery will eat into the independent vote down south

touts wrote: »

Seamus Healy could be in a real scrap for his seat. He has no profile outside Clonmel and the surrounding villages. He will poll very badly in the north. His base ia also a very left wing vote. If you walk around working class estates you often see Healy stickers in the windows. Sinn Fein could threaten that base. As could the various other small left wing parties (anti-austerity alliance etc).

Sinn Fein are apparently sniffing around for a high profile candidate. Historically they have no real presence in the county but if they can parachute someone in and the party keeps rising in the national polls I think they could take a seat. But it all depends on who they pull out of the hat. There is a seat between Healy and Sinn Fein.

Agree Sinn Fein will be there or there abouts for a seat, did well in locals in all areas, whether or not vote was for the person or the party will be interesting, cant see healy making it.

touts wrote: »

Renua will run a candidate. I hear they have lined up a sitting independent Councillor. They have to go through the illusion of sitting up a party and holding a convention but a couple of local cllrs have already told their supporters that they are joining Renua and one of those is likely to be the candidate. The problem is they seem stuck on 1-2% so I can't see them taking a seat.

touts wrote: »

So my bet for the next election is

Lowery Ind
Hayes FG
Mattie Ind
Healy/Sinn Fein
And a real dog fight for the last seat between Ambrose, A Kelly, Coonan, and whoever else pops up.

My bet is
Lowry
hayes
Smith
Mattie
and dog fight for last seat between Shin Fein/ Healy and Kelly with Sinn Fein taking it.

touts

jem wrote: »

This did not happen, Smith didn't tell anyone that he would stand as independant. Also that is untrue with regard to the "Deputy Mayor of Tiperary job." there was a shaft done with regard to the Chairman of the Thurles/ Templemore area, Smith was nominated by the non FF/Fg members came to a tie and he voted for himself.
Will be a very interesting convention and will largely depend on one for whole of tipp or one for North and one for south, if the latter will be a straight fight between smith and cahil for nomination- hanifin has pulled out and hogan has as much chance as yogi bear

Unfortunately for Smith it did happen. It wasn't Smith himself who said it but I have it from two FF people who were at the CDC constituency meeting where it was put to the meeting by a person VERY close to Smith in those blunt terms. The quote from both of them was "he'll run for Fianna Fáil or he'll run as an independent. You decide". It went down very badly at the meeting among representatives from North and South. His only chance of a nomination is from HQ and after the Chairman thing he is unlikely to get that as they will not want to be seen to reward disloyalty. Smith allowed himself to get played by the Lowery camp who dangled a carrot of a made up meaningless title in front of him and now he is in trouble.

jem

touts wrote: »

Unfortunately for Smith it did happen. It wasn't Smith himself who said it but I have it from two FF people who were at the CDC constituency meeting where it was put to the meeting by a person VERY close to Smith in those blunt terms. The quote from both of them was "he'll run for Fianna Fáil or he'll run as an independent. You decide". It went down very badly at the meeting among representatives from North and South. His only chance of a nomination is from HQ and after the Chairman thing he is unlikely to get that as they will not want to be seen to reward disloyalty. Smith allowed himself to get played by the Lowery camp who dangled a carrot of a made up meaningless title in front of him and now he is in trouble.

Unfortunatly, your source is either telling you porkies, spinning you or has very poor memory.
I was at the last cdc for ff in Tipperary in the Ragg and it didn't happen. I have also made inquiries form others who also say that it didn't happen.
perhaps someone is very worried that the biggest FF vote getter in Tipperary will get the nomination and the seat.

touts

jem wrote: »

Unfortunatly, your source is either telling you porkies, spinning you or has very poor memory.
I was at the last cdc for ff in Tipperary in the Ragg and it didn't happen. I have also made inquiries form others who also say that it didn't happen.
perhaps someone is very worried that the biggest FF vote getter in Tipperary will get the nomination and the seat.

Well I'm not a member of FF and I don't have a horse in this race so I'll bow to your clear knowledge on this.

But certainly down around Clonmel and Carrick on Suir Fianna Fail people maintain this happened and think Smith has blown his chances of a nomination so next time you are talking to him you might want to advise your mate that he is in a spot of bother for the nomination.

jem

What will be interesting is whether or not there is two or one convention.
have said since hogan decided to scrap north Tipp and south Tipp and make one that Smith's hardest bit would be getting the nomination. Get that and he will win seat.
Interesting times ahead in Tipp.

Xenophile

touts wrote: »

Alan Kelly is a dead man walking. He is really hated by the South Tipp Labour Party so they won't be going out of their way to help him in the south.

That was a good input and much appreciated even though I am not familiar with all the detail.

South Tipperary has no Labour organisation, he will be elected on a personal vote based on his ability.

It is almost beyond comprehension that the Labour Party should have run Phil Prendergast in the last European Election. My guess is on that day she would have been hard pressed to get a seat on Tipperary County Council.

Kelly's competence is beyond question and I am sure his profile will be raised over the next few months.

Interesting that Kelly's office in Clonmel is just across the street from where the Labour Party was founded.

Xenophile

Mattie McGrath is urging a NO vote in the forthcoming Marriage Equality Referendum. He must be the only Politician in the country doing so. I hope he does not expect to get the votes of the young and not so young voters.

Mattie being the wily old fox that he is knows that there are plenty of conservative and church led people around to elect him.

I wonder if he was ever at the funeral of a young gay person who died by suicide, he well knows that many young people have committed suicide as a result of not being able to deal with the stigma and the perceived shame and guilt associated with being born gay.

I urge the electors, young and not so young people of Tipperary to skip past his name on the Ballot Paper in the next General Election.

Xenophile

Kelly: €312m social housing plan is just the first trancheLISTEN: Every local authority is due to get a cut of the funding

Every local authority in the country is set to benefit from a new €312m social housing plan.

The government has unveiled the latest phase of it housing strategy, worth a total of €4bn.

Some 1,700 new homes are set to be completed by 2017.

Some projects will only bring forward a small number of homes, but some councils in the Dublin area will use the money to fund projects of more than 50 units.

An estimated 300 jobs will also be provided in the construction phases of the developments.

The announcement is part of the first phase of 'direct-build' under the government's social housing strategy, which aims to bring 35,000 units on-stream by 2020.

The target is to bring housing waiting lists down by a quarter over the next two years.

Speaking in Clonmel to Tipp FM, the Environment Minister Alan Kelly said there will be further announcements in the months ahead.


I saw Alan Kelly on the TV news last night announce on site, 20 social housing units fo Clonmel in the Glenconnor area. Say what you like nobody other than a Cabinet Minister, certainly no Independent T.D. could have this influence.

Kelly will work Clonmel to the bone to assure he will be re-elected.

TheCowboy

Xenophile wrote: »

Kelly: €312m social housing plan is just the first trancheLISTEN: Every local authority is due to get a cut of the funding

Every local authority in the country is set to benefit from a new €312m social housing plan.

The government has unveiled the latest phase of it housing strategy, worth a total of €4bn.

Some 1,700 new homes are set to be completed by 2017.

Some projects will only bring forward a small number of homes, but some councils in the Dublin area will use the money to fund projects of more than 50 units.

An estimated 300 jobs will also be provided in the construction phases of the developments.

The announcement is part of the first phase of 'direct-build' under the government's social housing strategy, which aims to bring 35,000 units on-stream by 2020.

The target is to bring housing waiting lists down by a quarter over the next two years.

Speaking in Clonmel to Tipp FM, the Environment Minister Alan Kelly said there will be further announcements in the months ahead.


I saw Alan Kelly on the TV news last night announce on site, 20 social housing units fo Clonmel in the Glenconnor area. Say what you like nobody other than a Cabinet Minister, certainly no Independent T.D. could have this influence.

Kelly will work Clonmel to the bone to assure he will be re-elected.[/QUOTE
You sound like kellys pr man.he won't be forgotten for Irish water champagne socialist that he is

touts

Xenophile wrote: »

Kelly: €312m social housing plan is just the first trancheLISTEN: Every local authority is due to get a cut of the funding

Every local authority in the country is set to benefit from a new €312m social housing plan.

The government has unveiled the latest phase of it housing strategy, worth a total of €4bn.

Some 1,700 new homes are set to be completed by 2017.

Some projects will only bring forward a small number of homes, but some councils in the Dublin area will use the money to fund projects of more than 50 units.

An estimated 300 jobs will also be provided in the construction phases of the developments.

The announcement is part of the first phase of 'direct-build' under the government's social housing strategy, which aims to bring 35,000 units on-stream by 2020.

The target is to bring housing waiting lists down by a quarter over the next two years.

Speaking in Clonmel to Tipp FM, the Environment Minister Alan Kelly said there will be further announcements in the months ahead.


I saw Alan Kelly on the TV news last night announce on site, 20 social housing units fo Clonmel in the Glenconnor area. Say what you like nobody other than a Cabinet Minister, certainly no Independent T.D. could have this influence.

Kelly will work Clonmel to the bone to assure he will be re-elected.

Only a cabinet minister could get 20 houses into Clonmel???? That's setting the bar a little low. As we saw in recent years any chancer with a couple of diggers and a bank loan could build 20 houses. Come back to me when he gets 20 businesses into Clonmel.

Anyway the general media reaction to yesterday's announcement seems to be broadly "too little too late". By lunchtime the headlines had changed to focus on Fr Peter McVerry calling it "insignificant". Now I think that was harsh (McVerry does a lot of very good work but I'd like to hear him say thank you to the hard pressed taxpayer even just once) but it was how the story evolved so I actually think Kelly came out of yesterday's announcement with a little more of his Teflon scraped off.

TheCowboy

touts wrote: »

Only a cabinet minister could get 20 houses into Clonmel???? That's setting the bar a little low. As we saw in recent years any chancer with a couple of diggers and a bank loan could build 20 houses. Come back to me when he gets 20 businesses into Clonmel.

Anyway the general media reaction to yesterday's announcement seems to be broadly "too little too late". By lunchtime the headlines had changed to focus on Fr Peter McVerry calling it "insignificant". Now I think that was harsh (McVerry does a lot of very good work but I'd like to hear him say thank you to the hard pressed taxpayer even just once) but it was how the story evolved so I actually think Kelly came out of yesterday's announcement with a little more of his Teflon scraped off.

they are not even certain - subject to planning

Xenophile

TheCowboy wrote: »

they are not even certain - subject to planning

All building is subject to planning. Kelly knows just how many working class votes there are in the Clonmel area. Just watch him work the Clonmel area over the next few months.....:).... and good luck to him.

TheCowboy

Xenophile wrote: »

All building is subject to planning. Kelly knows just how many working class votes there are in the Clonmel area. Just watch him work the Clonmel area over the next few months.....:).... and good luck to him.

you are obsessed with the working class going round estates to see who has healy stickers in the windows. you also seem to think you are in some way superior to what you call "working class"

All building is subject to planning.

i know that. but the point is they may not get planning permission so the houses are not even certain. Another labour pseudo promise

Xenophile

TheCowboy wrote: »

you are obsessed with the working class going round estates to see who has healy stickers in the windows. you also seem to think you are in some way superior to what you call "working class"

Your ridiculous statements do not merit a reply!

Vizzy

Xenophile wrote: »

Your ridiculous statements do not merit a reply!

Why did you reply then ??

Xenophile

Vizzy wrote: »

Why did you reply then ?

A reply without substance is really a non reply. Certain allegations are best left not to go totally ignored. For example your own post!

zurbfoundation

the point about Eoin Kelly romping home, should he run, is a good one - there is a stagnant little pool of personalities there for the new constituency - even though its late in the day, a person with a bit of a profile could still crash the party in an area like Tipp.

Sure Mick Wallace only announce he would run 3 weeks out and he topped the poll.

Xenophile

Mattie McGrath has shown himself to be out of touch with the electorate and especially out of touch with young people.

Despite his high media profile campaign for a NO vote Tipperary voted as follows in the Marriage Equality Referendum.

Tipperary South 56.12% Yes

Tipperary North 54.68% Yes

pooch90

Xenophile wrote: »

Mattie McGrath has shown himself to be out of touch with the electorate and especially out of touch with young people.

Despite his high media profile campaign for a NO vote Tipperary voted as follows in the Marriage Equality Referendum.

Tipperary South 56.12% Yes

Tipperary North 54.68% Yes

He has completely shot himself in the foot,nobody I know under 50 would consider voting for him now.

touts

Xenophile wrote: »

Mattie McGrath has shown himself to be out of touch with the electorate and especially out of touch with young people.

Despite his high media profile campaign for a NO vote Tipperary voted as follows in the Marriage Equality Referendum.

Tipperary South 56.12% Yes

Tipperary North 54.68% Yes

Mattie doesn't need 50%+ to win a seat. Be needs 20% or slightly less. IONA have been complaining that no one in the Dail represents the 37% who voted No. Well in Tipperary now Mattie can. I think he was on the wrong side but I don't think for a moment because he was on that side because he believes in it. He was on that side because it got him airtime. Mattie resigned from Fianna Fail over attempts to limit the numbers of breeding bitches puppy farmers could keep in appalling conditions in a shed. That was purely about him getting off the Titanic. His No stance was purely about raising his profile among the 20% of his new constituents in North Tipp he needs to vote for him next year.

solerina

pooch90 wrote: »

He has completely shot himself in the foot,nobody I know under 50 would consider voting for him now.

I am well under 50 and I would vote for him, I don't agree with his views on the marriage referendum but that's not the only reason to vote/not to vote for him...if you need something he will get it sorted for you, that's the reason most people will vote for him...the others will talk the talk but if you need them for any reason- you can forget about it !! I can look at him in more than one dimension, and I am sure others can too !!

pooch90

I said nobody I knew, I don't know you!

solerina

pooch90 wrote: »

I said nobody I knew, I don't know you!

I was merely saying that the people you know may not be representative Many of those under 50 as you implied !!!

touts

FG have selected Noel Coonan and Tom Hayes to contest the election. It is a two candidate (1 North 1 South) strategy so I understand Eoin Kelly will not be added to the ticket.

FF have their selection convention tonight. They are running two candidates (again 1 North 1 South) but only one will be picked tonight. The North Slot is between Michael Smith Jnr and Jackie Cahill. John Carroll was running but has apparently pulled out because of the enforced 1 North 1 South choice. He wanted both slots decided tonight in the hope of getting two from the North and none from the South and figured there were enough FF members in the North to get that. The South Slot is between Martin Mansergh, Siobhan Ambrose & Imelda Goldsboro. They will all vote for one candidate and then FF HQ will nominate the second person from the unrepresented area (North or South). Apparently Jackie Cahill is proving very popular both North and South based on his ICMSA president background and could spring a surprise over the longer established names.

Xenophile

Councillor Jackie Cahill was selected to contest the general election for the party in Tipperary.

Just wondering if this is the same Jackie Cahill who writes on a regular basis in the Examiner on Tipperary GAA?

touts

Xenophile wrote: »

Councillor Jackie Cahill was selected to contest the general election for the party in Tipperary.

Just wondering if this is the same Jackie Cahill who writes on a regular basis in the Examiner on Tipperary GAA?

No. That Jackie Cahill is a sports journalist who has been knocking around a few media outlets for a few years.

Reading the reports in the Times and Independent it seems Cahill was just behind Smith Jnr on the first count but basically hovered up the second preferences and comfortably won the nomination in the end. Looks like Smith pissing people off in the build up might have cost him in the end. They either voted for him from the start or they didn't touch him.

On a 1 from the North and 1 from the South strategy it looks like it will be a straight choice between Ambrose and Goldsboro for the second slot. Anyone know which of those polled better last night? I'm assuming Mansergh is not in the running given his age, gender and low support at the convention. I'm also assuming there isn't a celeb candidate they can pull out of the hat. It will be interesting to see if Smith now spits out his dummy and runs as an independent.

I'd say Cahill could be a real threat for a seat. His ICMSA background will be popular in a constituency with a lot of farmers. He'll also do Mattie McGrath a lot of damage as now the rural FF vote that went to Mattie may have new home. Mattie's strategy of playing footsie with John McGuinness under the radio studio table may have to change now as he can't continue to say he is an independent who will join FF after the election. Maybe that's why he jumped on the conservative catholic bandwagon in the referendum.

Alan Kelly & Lab have had a good week with the Marriage Equality result but the water bills are starting to hit now and he's the man who will be in the firing line between now and the election.

Based on all that I'll revise my previous prediction of who will win the seats to:

Michael Lowery Ind
Tom Hayes FG
Mattie McGrath Ind
Healy/Sinn Fein
Jackie Cahill FF

jem

first Pref votes from last night
mm 37
Goldsboro 82
ambrose 173
cahil 260
smith 300

Assume FF will put ambrose on ticket.
Then there is a problem.
Cahil in home town Lowry. sitting
Up north Coonan sitting ( last time Hoctor got very poor vote from Roscrea/Templemore FF)
to the west kelly sitting
so has to go south for votes .

Coonan so so happy today. Would have lost seat had smith stood, now home and hosed.
My revised prediction
Lowry ind
Coonan fg

fight for 3.
sinn fein
mcgrath
kelly
hayes
ambrose/cahil

gut says Sinn fein has enough to get seat
Likewise mcgrath will pick votes

so down to kelly/hayes and a FF.
Ambrose will be hoping to get ahead of Cahill (hence her huge transfer to Cahill 3/1)

FF might and only might scrape seat (60/40 against)

the dark phantom

Xenophile wrote: »

I would agree with the above statement. Some issues even though they are anchored in particular constituencies in an indirect way impact on the country overall and in particular the taxpayer. I cite the following example,

How many people are aware that there is a proposal on the books to upgrade the N20 from Limerick to Cork as part of the "Atlantic Corridor". As part of this plan traffic from Limerick en route to Rosslare would be diverted through Mallow. This would be done at the expense of upgrading the N24. It makes no sense to add so many additional kilometers between Limerick and Waterford, keep in mind that fuel prices will not always be as low as they are now and that there is a very high volume of commercial traffic between Rosslare Port all the way to Sligo.

It has been famously said that "all politics is local" and with this in mind anyone running for election in Tipperary should keep in mind that the N24 runs from Monard on the far side of Limerick Junction to just beyond Carrick- on-Suir all this stretch of roadway is in County Tipperary.

Just take a look at a map and see how far south you would have to travel to arrive in Waterford via Mallow. It just makes no sense especially when one looks at the dangerous and congested state of the N24 through the towns of Tipperary and Carrick-on-Suir and to some extent Clonmel.

That's totally wrong on so many points. Although the N24 is a shocking road, The N20 to Mallow is just as crap, And won't be upgraded anytime soon.

The AC was never planned to replace the N24, Its planned to improve south eastern access(Wexford, Waterford) to Cork, And access along the west (Limerick/Galway/Ennis/Sligo) from south (Cork) to north (Letterkenny/Derry).

touts

jem wrote: »

first Pref votes from last night
mm 37
Goldsboro 82
ambrose 173
cahil 260
smith 300

Assume FF will put ambrose on ticket.
Then there is a problem.
Cahil in home town Lowry. sitting
Up north Coonan sitting ( last time Hoctor got very poor vote from Roscrea/Templemore FF)
to the west kelly sitting
so has to go south for votes .

Coonan so so happy today. Would have lost seat had smith stood, now home and hosed.
My revised prediction
Lowry ind
Coonan fg

fight for 3.
sinn fein
mcgrath
kelly
hayes
ambrose/cahil

gut says Sinn fein has enough to get seat
Likewise mcgrath will pick votes

so down to kelly/hayes and a FF.
Ambrose will be hoping to get ahead of Cahill (hence her huge transfer to Cahill 3/1)

FF might and only might scrape seat (60/40 against)

Lowry is still strongly associated with FG, picks up a lot of old FG votes and as the election approaches those links will be highlighted as he will be constantly mentioned as propping up a FG led government. If your prediction comes about that means there are in effect three FG seats from 5. Can't see it unless they have one hell of a turnaround in the polls. 2011 yes they would have done it with the tidal wave of support that carried them to power. Lots of 2nd seats were won on transfers which they will lose this time. There is a seat between Hayes and Coonan but the question is which one is the vulnerable second seat. My bet is with Cahill now taking a lot of the farmer & rural vote in the North Coonan could be in big trouble. Just can't see any way he will keep his seat to be honest.

I'd also agree that there is a left wing seat but it will be a fight between Healy and Sinn Fein. It'll depend on who Sinn Fein run. If it is a popular name (not another elderly party hack like they have run in recent elections) they will unseat Healy. But they would need to find someone fairly quickly.

Ambrose won't beat Cahill for the FF seat. But I could see her get a Senate nod (assuming it is still Cllrs only voting).

touts

the dark phantom wrote: »

That's totally wrong on so many points. Although the N24 is a shocking road, The N20 to Mallow is just as crap, And won't be upgraded anytime soon.

The AC was never planned to replace the N24, Its planned to improve south eastern access(Wexford, Waterford) to Cork, And access along the west (Limerick/Galway/Ennis/Sligo) from south (Cork) to north (Letterkenny/Derry).

Neither road will be upgraded in the next 10-15 years. The two projects are dead in the water. Any candidate who promises otherwise is telling fairytales.

jem

touts wrote: »

Lowry is still strongly associated with FG, picks up a lot of old FG votes and as the election approaches those links will be highlighted as he will be constantly mentioned as propping up a FG led government. If your prediction comes about that means there are in effect three FG seats from 5. Can't see it unless they have one hell of a turnaround in the polls. 2011 yes they would have done it with the tidal wave of support that carried them to power. Lots of 2nd seats were won on transfers which they will lose this time. There is a seat between Hayes and Coonan but the question is which one is the vulnerable second seat. My bet is with Cahill now taking a lot of the farmer & rural vote in the North Coonan could be in big trouble. Just can't see any way he will keep his seat to be honest.

I'd also agree that there is a left wing seat but it will be a fight between Healy and Sinn Fein. It'll depend on who Sinn Fein run. If it is a popular name (not another elderly party hack like they have run in recent elections) they will unseat Healy. But they would need to find someone fairly quickly.

Ambrose won't beat Cahill for the FF seat. But I could see her get a Senate nod (assuming it is still Cllrs only voting).

first of all I am not saying ambrose will get ahead but that is her hope and part of the 3/1 transfer last night.
had smith been in the field Coonan was gone.
now he is in with great chance. Cahil will pick up few votes in Roscrea area. Seen as a back stabber.also bear in mind his small vote in the locals (elected without reaching the quota) and Roscrea area wanting a localish TD.
Roomer has it that sinn fein trying its damnedest to get healy to run for them.
Lowry long past the FG tag, it is a huge personal vote and his preferences dont go to FG any more than other parties

touts

jem wrote: »

first of all I am not saying ambrose will get ahead but that is her hope and part of the 3/1 transfer last night.
had smith been in the field Coonan was gone.
now he is in with great chance. Cahil will pick up few votes in Roscrea area. Seen as a back stabber.also bear in mind his small vote in the locals (elected without reaching the quota) and Roscrea area wanting a localish TD.
Roomer has it that sinn fein trying its damnedest to get healy to run for them.
Lowry long past the FG tag, it is a huge personal vote and his preferences dont go to FG any more than other parties

Out of curiosity why is Cahill considered a backstabber?

tipptom

jem wrote: »

first of all I am not saying ambrose will get ahead but that is her hope and part of the 3/1 transfer last night.
had smith been in the field Coonan was gone.
now he is in with great chance. Cahil will pick up few votes in Roscrea area. Seen as a back stabber.also bear in mind his small vote in the locals (elected without reaching the quota) and Roscrea area wanting a localish TD.
Roomer has it that sinn fein trying its damnedest to get healy to run for them.
Lowry long past the FG tag, it is a huge personal vote and his preferences dont go to FG any more than other parties

If Coonan holds his seat ill eat my hat.
Think Kelly will struggle as well with Labours vote decimated nationally and will struggle with transfers.

jem

tipptom wrote: »

If Coonan holds his seat ill eat my hat.
Think Kelly will struggle as well with Labours vote decimated nationally and will struggle with transfers.

I wouldn't throw out the salt and vinegar so.
He had 0% chance with Smith in the field.
Kelly I would have said had maybe 20/30% chance at best.
Now all up in the air cant see the swath of Roscrea/Templemore/ Nenagh with no TD.

tipptom

jem wrote: »

I wouldn't throw out the salt and vinegar so.
He had 0% chance with Smith in the field.
Kelly I would have said had maybe 20/30% chance at best.
Now all up in the air cant see the swath of Roscrea/Templemore/ Nenagh with no TD.

Could be a big swathe from clonmel to Carrick on Suir with no rep possibly to.
Think a lot of people were put of by Kellys speech in the Dail(incl some in his own party) during the water debacle (in which I thought he done well)about HIS Legacy
Think Coonan was lucky to hold his seat last time even with the FG bounce and the FF wipeout,must be the luckiest TD in the country due to circumstances but his luck will run out next time.


Not a supporter of FF by any stretch but if I was in the party I would have objected to him even running for a nomination never mind getting a nomination from head office and I think it would be foolish to run him never mind leaving the south unattended,foolish to run 3.




There are a lot of final seats in the last election that FG TDs scraped in and will not hold this time and there are a lot of seats that FF can regain incl Tipp,can see FF hitting 35+.


See people on here mentioning SF having a chance of a seat in Tipp,wouldnt have said that was on the cards in Tipp,who are they running?

Xenophile

tipptom wrote: »

[/B]
Could be a big swathe from clonmel to Carrick on Suir with no rep possibly to.
Think a lot of people were put of by Kellys speech in the Dail(incl some in his own party) during the water debacle (in which I thought he done well)about HIS Legacy
Think Coonan was lucky to hold his seat last time even with the FG bounce and the FF wipeout,must be the luckiest TD in the country due to circumstances but his luck will run out next time.


Not a supporter of FF by any stretch but if I was in the party I would have objected to him even running for a nomination never mind getting a nomination from head office and I think it would be foolish to run him never mind leaving the south unattended,foolish to run 3.




There are a lot of final seats in the last election that FG TDs scraped in and will not hold this time and there are a lot of seats that FF can regain incl Tipp,can see FF hitting 35+.


See people on here mentioning SF having a chance of a seat in Tipp,wouldnt have said that was on the cards in Tipp,who are they running?

No credible politicians in FF or FG with the potential of getting a seat at the cabinet table.

Lowry will sit on the fence and vote for Kenny as Taoiseach, and maybe be rewarded for this.

Sinn Fein so far are non runners, their promises are so off the wall, we are hardly that gullible in Tipperary.

Alan Kelly is Tipperary's only hope for a seat in the cabinet position.

Healy and McGrath naysayers.

tipptom

Xenophile wrote: »

No credible politicians in FF or FG with the potential of getting a seat at the cabinet table.

Lowry will sit on the fence and vote for Kenny as Taoiseach, and maybe be rewarded for this.

Sinn Fein so far are non runners, their promises are so off the wall, we are hardly that gullible in Tipperary.

Alan Kelly is Tipperary's only hope for a seat in the cabinet position.

Healy and McGrath naysayers.

Will be hard for him to hold a cabinet position when he will be of a party that will be wiped out in the next GE as any by election and council elections have shown heretofore never mind his own difficulties holding his seat.
SF will hold treble of Labours seats in the next GE and I am basing that on them not gaining anything like their polls are showing them gaining at the moment as they will not get the transfers.


More likely a FG/FF axis with an Independent grouping.


I think Hayes might be the only one in Tipp with any hope of a sniff of a junior cabinet position and that's highly unlikely.


Cant see how Lowry will have any influence on Enda Kenny being Taoisigh.

Xenophile

tipptom wrote: »

Will be hard for him to hold a cabinet position when he will be of a party that will be wiped out in the next GE as any by election and council elections have shown heretofore never mind his own difficulties holding his seat.
SF will hold treble of Labours seats in the next GE and I am basing that on them not gaining anything like their polls are showing them gaining at the moment as they will not get the transfers.


More likely a FG/FF axis with an Independent grouping.


I think Hayes might be the only one in Tipp with any hope of a sniff of a junior cabinet position and that's highly unlikely.


Cant see how Lowry will have any influence on Enda Kenny being Taoisigh.

I agree with most of what you say. I would not be surprised if Labour are included with FG and FF in the formation of the next Government as so far they have proved to be very reliable in this Government and no one will want to touch Sinn Feinn with a barge pole. However in this scenario the big debate will be in the Labour party as to whether or not they are prepared to enter Govt. again.