General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary

F34

Deleted User wrote: »

But it's just figures you have a problem with.

Yes I actually think job bridge is a great idea for people to gain relative experience. The back to education is very much worth it for some people if they progress into employment some don't and stay on a course merry go round and waste valuable resources.

Edit:

I want transparency and accountability from our Government god knows they are paid enough with a high salary and expenses I really don't think that's to much to ask do you?

It wasnt me123

F34 wrote: »

Yes I actually think job bridge is a great idea for people to gain relative experience. The back to education is very much worth it for some people if they progress into employment some don't and stay on a course merry go round and waste valuable resources.

Edit:

I want transparency and accountability from our Government god knows they are paid enough with a high salary and expenses I really don't think that's to much to ask do you?

I agree, Job Bridge would be great for the youth and young people with little or no employment history behind them - great experience. But I don't think they should put highly skilled people on schemes just to get them off the dole, its demeaning and embarrassing and it should be limited to under 30's. I also think they should encourage businesses to create apprenticeships - much better than a 3 mth scheme with a real chance of a job at the end of the apprenticeship.

questionmark?

EternalHope wrote: »

They are included in job statistics as jobs. so the unemployment rate would be higher if they did not exist

what are the real figures for unemployment if you deduct CE and other 'employment' schemes

The figures that should be broadcast more is the actual number of people working not just those not working. Even with the emigration of the past few years the population has increased but unemployment has gone down quite a bit.

The issue people face in places like Tipperary is that big companies want to be in the cities near critical infrastructure and large quantities of potential employees. As the world becomes more urbanised it's going to be a bigger challenge for rural areas to hold onto it's youth and build businesses.

PearlJ

Anyone listening to Tipp FM?. The wonderful Independant candidate Michael Dillon is on. His main issue will be the Hostabuls apparently.
The dude is bat **** crazy.

touts

PearlJ wrote: »

Anyone listening to Tipp FM?. The wonderful Independant candidate Michael Dillon is on. His main issue will be the Hostabuls apparently.
The dude is bat **** crazy.

Did he actually pay the deposit? His local publican will be annoyed.

screamer

I think I heard an economist from ucd last week day there are 300 000 on CE schemes and these are not real jobs. I agree. The failure of CE is that it appears to be eternal. People never get a chance to move to proper employment. It's just welfare in another form used by the government to massage unemployment figures.

EternalHope

screamer wrote: »

I think I heard an economist from ucd last week day there are 300 000 on CE schemes and these are not real jobs. I agree. The failure of CE is that it appears to be eternal. People never get a chance to move to proper employment. It's just welfare in another form used by the government to massage unemployment figures.

That is my point in asking what are the real figures. People on schemes are 'employed' for statistics

EternalHope

EternalHope wrote: »

That is my point in asking what are the real figures. People on schemes are 'employed' for statistics

He got it from a woman who does not want to be named

questionmark?

screamer wrote: »

I think I heard an economist from ucd last week day there are 300 000 on CE schemes and these are not real jobs. I agree. The failure of CE is that it appears to be eternal. People never get a chance to move to proper employment. It's just welfare in another form used by the government to massage unemployment figures.

This number seems huge! Will have to try and find some sort of evidence for that claim.

screamer

screamer wrote: »

I think I heard an economist from ucd last week day there are 300 000 on CE schemes and these are not real jobs. I agree. The failure of CE is that it appears to be eternal. People never get a chance to move to proper employment. It's just welfare in another form used by the government to massage unemployment figures.

These are the actual figures "There are no plans to expand CE beyond the 25,300 places already budgeted for in 2015." https://www.kildarestreet.com/wrans/?id=2015-03-05a.5

Participants only serve one year on CE schemes now and the double payment for single parents or those on Disability or other such payment has gone.

blackbird99

82309 according to the journals research not counting supervisors, which make up a significant number as well.
http://www.thejournal.ie/ge16-election-2016-ireland-fact-check-job-activation-unemployment-2601799-Feb2016/

Interesting reading. Shows that Numbers in work are up and number unemployed is down.

Employment
The CSO measures the number of people employed in the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS), which is released (as the name suggests) every three months.
At the end of September 2015 (the most recent data available), there were 1,983,000 people employed in some way in Ireland.
The number for the first quarter of 2011, when Fine Gael and Labour took office, was 1,841,800, meaning there has been an increase of 141,200 or 7.67%.
Source: CSO.ie
The live register
The live register is, in short, a measure of those unemployed, looking for work, and registering for some kind of unemployment assistance.
It does not include anyone on a job activation scheme.
In December, there were 321,616 people on the live register. In March 2011, when Fine Gael and Labour took office, that number was 441,193, so there’s been a a drop of 119,577, or 27.1%.
Source: d mg

http://www.thejournal.ie/ge16-election-2016-ireland-fact-check-job-activation-unemployment-2601799-Feb2016/

EternalHope

Deleted User wrote: »

Interesting reading. Shows that Numbers in work are up and number unemployed is down.

Employment
The CSO measures the number of people employed in the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS), which is released (as the name suggests) every three months.
At the end of September 2015 (the most recent data available), there were 1,983,000 people employed in some way in Ireland.
The number for the first quarter of 2011, when Fine Gael and Labour took office, was 1,841,800, meaning there has been an increase of 141,200 or 7.67%.
Source: CSO.ie
The live register
The live register is, in short, a measure of those unemployed, looking for work, and registering for some kind of unemployment assistance.
It does not include anyone on a job activation scheme.
In December, there were 321,616 people on the live register. In March 2011, when Fine Gael and Labour took office, that number was 441,193, so there’s been a a drop of 119,577, or 27.1%.
Source: d mg

http://www.thejournal.ie/ge16-election-2016-ireland-fact-check-job-activation-unemployment-2601799-Feb2016/

that is they massage they figures

EternalHope

EternalHope wrote: »

that is they massage they figures

If you look at the figures in Blackbird99s post, you will see that even with those figures taken into account, there are still 60,000 more in work now than 5 years ago. But, I doubt you'll agree with those figures either. You could also look at the tax intake since 2011. That is up also. Whether you like it or not, the economy IS improving.

Xenophile

The merger of the two three-seaters of Tipperary North and South to make one five-seater, means at least one of the six outgoing TDs must lose.

But more may fall if, as expected, Fianna Fáil claw back a seat in what was for decades their heartland.

The biggest question being asked nationally is whether Environment Minister Alan Kelly can hold his seat with a heavy national trend against his party. Kelly lost a large swathe of territory in the north of the county to the new adjoining three-seat constituency of Offaly.

Meanwhile, all the parties and Independents are preparing for the demands of "playing the full pitch" this time out.

Long-time Independent Michael Lowry, who had almost 30pc of the vote last time in the old Tipperary North, is on target to be a poll-topper. Junior Agriculture Minister Tom Hayes is also expected to hold his own for Fine Gael.

Thereafter, up to six candidates will be bunched with little more than a thousand votes between them. And the sequencing of eliminations will tell a lot.

Independent Séamus Healy, of the breakaway trade union grouping Workers & Unemployed Action Group (WUAG), will be hard to shift. Despite local election reverses for his grouping in 2014, he has a good reputation around Clonmel where the bulk of the population lives.

High-profile Independent Mattie McGrath from Newcastle, close to Clonmel, faces a fight. He was a long-time Fianna Fáil member but fell out with the party in June 2010, and decided to sever his links entirely and stand as an Independent in February 2011. His high national profile may help him across the entire county.

Fine Gael's Noel Coonan of Roscrea is deemed most vulnerable but he argues that he has always been fighting an uphill battle. "A constituency can benefit from having junior or senior ministers. But they also need somebody who grinds out the day-to-day results for local people. That is what I do and the people know that," Deputy Coonan told the Irish Independent.

That comment identifies the enemy as Environment Minister Alan Kelly.

Fianna Fáil are reduced to having no TD in the entire county and this time they field three candidates in efforts to redress this. These are Cllr Michael Smith of Roscrea, Cllr Siobhán Ambrose of Clonmel, and Cllr Jackie Cahill of Thurles. Smith is son of Michael Smith, a long-time TD, senator and minister.

The rivalry between all three will be intense but party managers hope this of itself will help. The clear risk is that they could hopelessly split the vote and drag each other down. Cllr Jackie Cahill is a former president of the Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers' Association and he won the selection convention in May. Cllrs Smith and Ambrose were later added to spread the load.

Local canvassers expect the battle is between Cahill and Smith, with Cahill's more central location and identification as a farm union leader a distinct advantage.

But Michael Smith's father, a long-time TD and Cabinet minister, is active on his son's campaign and has overcome such obstacles in the past.

Sinn Féin are fielding Nenagh-based councillor Séamus Morris, involved in sport and tourism promotion. He will have a good vote but unlikely to figure for a seat.

PREDICTION: 1 FG; 1 FF; 1 Lab; 2 Inds.

Candidates:5 seats

FG Noel Coonan TD, FG Tom Hayes TD, FG Marie Murphy, LAB Alan Kelly TD, FF Jackie Cahill, FF Siobhan Ambrose, FF Michael Smith, SF Seamus Morris, GP Gearóid Fitzgibbon, IND Mattie McGrath TD, IND Michael Lowry TD, IND Seamus Healy TD, IND Caroline Hofman, IND Michael Dillon.




Xenophile

Betting changes, leading bookmaker giving odds on for four of the North Tipperary Candidates to take four of the five seats.


Michael Lowry (Ind) ........... 1/50

Tom Hayes (Fine Gael)........... 2/9

Alan Kelly (Labour) .............. .1/4

Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fail) ........1/3

Michael Smith (Fianna Fail) .......4/11

.Seamus Healy (WUAG) ........... 4/6

Mattie McGrath (Ind) ............... 6/5

golfball37

Whats the betting on Morris and Coonan X?
I think both will get as high a FPV as Minister Kelly and I can't understand how he is 1/4.

EternalHope

Deleted User wrote: »

If you look at the figures in Blackbird99s post, you will see that even with those figures taken into account, there are still 60,000 more in work now than 5 years ago. But, I doubt you'll agree with those figures either. You could also look at the tax intake since 2011. That is up also. Whether you like it or not, the economy IS improving.

you need to learn to address relevant points. I never sdaid there was not more working, that i did not like it. I just asked how many are real jobs. you do not much about the politics if you did not know that CE and scheme are used to massage unemployment statistics

And since you want to broaden the argument only 42% feel there is recovery according to a new poll.

Xenophile

golfball37 wrote: »

Whats the betting on Morris and Coonan X?
I think both will get as high a FPV as Minister Kelly and I can't understand how he is 1/4.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-constituencies?ev_oc_grp_ids=2250577

tipptom

Xenophile wrote: »

Betting changes, leading bookmaker giving odds on for four of the North Tipperary Candidates to take four of the five seats.


Michael Lowry (Ind) ........... 1/50

Tom Hayes (Fine Gael)........... 2/9

Alan Kelly (Labour) .............. .1/4

Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fail) ........1/3

Michael Smith (Fianna Fail) .......4/11

.Seamus Healy (WUAG) ........... 4/6
I think the spanner in the works there is how is AKs vote is going to hold up under the undoubted massive tsunami the Lab party is going to be hit by nationally.
He will transfer well from FG but will his personal vote be good enough to take advantage of the tow from his government partners alone?


I think he is going to be in for a shock at his personal vote in an election that is going to be full of shockers nationally across the party's.

EternalHope

EternalHope wrote: »

you need to learn to address relevant points. I never sdaid there was not more working, that i did not like it. I just asked how many are real jobs. you do not much about the politics if you did not know that CE and scheme are used to massage unemployment statistics

And since you want to broaden the argument only 42% feel there is recovery according to a new poll.

And I gave you the answer to that question.

CE schemes have been around for decades and they actually do some great work, both for their participants and those who sponsor them.

As for broadening the argument, There are some who will never admit to seeing a recovery! They only see the glass half empty and will never change their position!

EternalHope

Deleted User wrote: »

And I gave you the answer to that question.

you didn't you tried to engage me in a strawman argument and m,isquoted me

CE schemes have been around for decades and they actually do some great work, both for their participants and those who sponsor them.

i never said they didn't. the issue is they are used to massage figures. That is a fact

As for broadening the argument, There are some who will never admit to seeing a recovery! They only see the glass half empty and will never change their position!

All 58% who do not see it?

EternalHope

I read the SF poster were taken down in Clonmel last night. They claim they have photo of who did it. But i would say they are bluffing, if they had photo they would publish it

EternalHope

EternalHope wrote: »

you didn't you tried to engage me in a strawman argument and m,isquoted me

i never said they didn't. the issue is they are used to massage figures. That is a fact

All 58% who do not see it?

No, I pointed you in the direction of actual figures, suggesting that if you subtract all Schemes, Education initiatives etc from the number of extra in employment, you will still get a figure of 60,000+ extra in employment. Those are the facts. If you have figures to show otherwise, please show them, then we can engage in a discussion.

Also, where did you get the figure of 58% not seeing any of the recovery?

EternalHope

Deleted User wrote: »

No, I pointed you in the direction of actual figures, suggesting that if you subtract all Schemes, Education initiatives etc from the number of extra in employment, you will still get a figure of 60,000+ extra in employment. Those are the facts. If you have figures to show otherwise, please show them, then we can engage in a discussion.

Also, where did you get the figure of 58% not seeing any of the recovery?

and i asked where you got your figure and you then quoted me on points i did not raise. a new poll from this week said only 42% saw recovery

EternalHope

EternalHope wrote: »

and i asked where you got your figure and you then quoted me on points i did not raise. a new poll from this week said only 42% saw recovery

It's all there in Posts 702 and 703. Happy reading.

Do YOU have a source, link, to that new poll you mentioned?

touts

Xenophile wrote: »

Betting changes, leading bookmaker giving odds on for four of the North Tipperary Candidates to take four of the five seats.


Michael Lowry (Ind) ........... 1/50

Tom Hayes (Fine Gael)........... 2/9

Alan Kelly (Labour) .............. .1/4

Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fail) ........1/3

Michael Smith (Fianna Fail) .......4/11

.Seamus Healy (WUAG) ........... 4/6

Mattie McGrath (Ind) ............... 6/5

There is a complete apathy in the south. Hayes & Mattie are both struggling to engage the voters. Healy is concentrating completely on Clonmel in an all or nothing gamble. Ambrose is very active now (and to be fair has impressed me any time I've heard her speak, she is the best of the FF candidates but doesn't seem to have the same level of support from the party as the other two) but is coming from way too far back because she didn't start until the gun was fired. Murphy doesn't seem to be interested in it at all and the race is to see if her or Dillon will go out first which is a fairly damning verdict on her campaign.

So right now I see it:
Lowry is safe with close to 2 quotas.
Coonan looks likely to come in on Lowry's surplus.
Healy's Clonmel Gamble should just pay off.
Smith is by all accounts ahead of Cahill for the FF seat. The fact that they hate each other probably won't impact on the transfers.
That Leaves Kelly, Morrris and McGrath fighting for the last seat. With Kelly & Morris both coming out of Nenagh and with McGrath based in Newcastle (Healy having wrapped up Clonmel) it's likely one of Kelly or Morris will take the last seat when the other goes out.

So yes that's four out of five seats going North and that would be a complete disaster for the South. The TDs will fight for their own home bases so Nenagh, Thurles etc will all get priority over Cashel, Clonmel etc. I heard Ambrose on the radio saying South Tipp had the second highest unemployment rate in the country. Well if the South returns only one TD they'll be number one come the next election. Yet it seems to be how things are panning out. One of Mattie, Hayes or Ambrose needs to pull off something very special in the last week to rebalance things a bit.

Another observation. It's interesting that Cahill is running a very independent campaign. All his posters are yellow and blue and barely even acknowledge Fianna Fail. They look more like a PD poster than an FF poster. Were he to be elected could we be looking at the first defection to the independent ranks or even Renua from the big parties.

EternalHope

Deleted User wrote: »

It's all there in Posts 702 and 703. Happy reading.

Do YOU have a source, link, to that new poll you mentioned?

It is not a secret
first link to examiner
56% it seems now

Vizzy

For all the Mattie fans out there you need to Google "Newstalk Mattie McGrath" and then try to explain to any sane individual why you would vote for him.
Good luck
(sorry but can't post the link)

It wasnt me123

touts wrote: »

So right now I see it:
Lowry is safe with close to 2 quotas.
Coonan looks likely to come in on Lowry's surplus.
Healy's Clonmel Gamble should just pay off.
Smith is by all accounts ahead of Cahill for the FF seat. The fact that they hate each other probably won't impact on the transfers.
That Leaves Kelly, Morrris and McGrath fighting for the last seat. With Kelly & Morris both coming out of Nenagh and with McGrath based in Newcastle (Healy having wrapped up Clonmel) it's likely one of Kelly or Morris will take the last seat when the other goes out.

.

Did you forget Tom Hayes? He wouldn't be my first choice for FG but he's probably going to get the quota after that crook Lowry