General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary

EternalHope

EternalHope wrote: »

It is not a secret
first link to examiner
56% it seems now

That is a link to a newspaper opinion piece and not the poll itself.

EternalHope

Deleted User wrote: »

That is a link to a newspaper opinion piece and not the poll itself.

i think this is it
http://www.redcresearch.ie/1834-2/

EternalHope

EternalHope wrote: »

i think this is it
http://www.redcresearch.ie/1834-2/

Thanks. A good, interesting read. Key Findings & Summary are:

/ Public attitudes as to where the government should focus from a budgetary point of view are quite polarised.
/ In total over half of all adults claim to be in favour of investment in both expenditure on public service (36%) and reducing the national debt (20%), while the rest are more in favour of reducing the tax burden either through abolishing the Universal Social Charge (33%) or further Tax Cuts (10%).
/ Those in Dublin, from more professional and clerical backgrounds, and older age groups are most in favour of investment, while cuts are more favoured by those in the middle 35-54 year olds aged groups.
/ Just over 2 in 5 claim that they have actually felt the benefit of the recovery, primarily coming from more professional and clerical households, those in younger 18-34 year old age groups and those living in Dublin.
/ It is no surprise as a result that most adults (79%) believe that any economic recovery has been on a two tier bases, particularly among those living in Connaught and Ulster regions of the country.
/ While the perception among many (61%) is that the economic recovery is here to stay for at least the next 5 years, there is some uncertainty around this figure; with only 22% very sure in their belief that it will last the next 5 years.
/ When asked opinions about various possible tax changes or incentives, there is universal agreement that businesses should be incentivised for creating jobs in Rural Ireland – this is the case across all demographics.
/ Measures to promote long term rental agreements are also favourably viewed with 86% believe they should be promoted particularly among those aged 25-34, arguably key renting age groups.
/ While tax relief on childcare costs are also favoured by a significant proportion of all adults (83%), which rises to 87% among those with dependent children.
/ The majority (77%) agree that mortgage regulations need to be reviewed to make it easier to get on the property ladder or trade up – this is especially significant among this core audience of those aged 18-34 and lower social grades.
/ While, extending social housing to 20% of all new developments should also be restored, according to 3 in 4 of all adults, especially those from more working class background and those living in Dublin.
/ There is however much less agreement (36%) with the notion that returning emigrants might receiving a preferential tax rate. However agreement is higher among those potentially more affected, aged 18-24.

Xenophile

Latest Betting !


Michael Lowry (Ind) ........... 1/100

Alan Kelly (Labour) .............. 3/10

Tom Hayes (Fine Gael)........... 1/3

Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fail) ........4/11

Michael Smith (Fianna Fail) .......4/11

Seamus Healy (WUAG) ........... 4/5

Mattie McGrath (Ind) ............... 11/10

Xenophile

Xenophile wrote: »

Latest Betting !


Michael Lowry (Ind) ........... 1/100

Alan Kelly (Labour) .............. 3/10

Tom Hayes (Fine Gael)........... 1/3

Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fail) ........4/11

Michael Smith (Fianna Fail) .......4/11

Seamus Healy (WUAG) ........... 4/5

Mattie McGrath (Ind) ............... 11/10

I'd be very surprised if Seamus Healy didn't get in. I am hearing loads of good stories about the bould Mattie Mc too. It is going to be very interesting.

Xenophile

Xenophile wrote: »

*******Latest Betting ! *************


Michael Lowry (Ind) ........... 1/100.................Denis O'Brien must have put a few million on him, he must be the hottest favourite in the election

Alan Kelly (Labour) .............. 3/10........Working Clonmel as he sees the potential there. Now second in the betting!

Tom Hayes (Fine Gael)........... 1/3...............A bit smug

Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fail) ........4/11...........No profile in South of County

Michael Smith (Fianna Fail) .......4/11...........No profile in South of County

Seamus Healy (WUAG) ........... 4/5.............Clonmel people are fed up of all the cul de sacs he has brought them down. + no influence

Mattie McGrath (Ind) ............... 11/10.......................... No influence, has told too many untruths during the campaign. And maybe many people resent the fact that he was the only TD in Dail Eireann to urge a NO vote in The Marriage Equality Referendum[/QUOTE

Xenophile

Half of voters claim no benefit from two tier recovery.

Hard to feel the recovery in your pocket when so much of the wealth being created is going to pay down credit card and mortgage debt.

touts

Xenophile wrote: »

Half of voters claim no benefit from two tier recovery.

Hard to feel the recovery in your pocket when so much of the wealth being created is going to pay down credit card and mortgage debt.

So thats Labour's strategy for the last week. Scolding people that it's their fault they haven't felt the recovery because they have spent too much money buying stuff. You are really gunning for zero seats!

touts

It wasnt me123 wrote: »

Did you forget Tom Hayes? He wouldn't be my first choice for FG but he's probably going to get the quota after that crook Lowry

No I didn't. Reports in the newspapers are that Lowry is eating into Hayes's vote in the south putting him and Coonan neck and neck. That's seriously bad news for Hayes (and the South) because that will mean Hayes and Coonan will be relying on Lowry's surplus to get a seat. The bulk of Lowry's vote will still come from the North and therefore when his surplus starts to be distributed that should edge Coonan ahead of Hayes meaning Coonan takes the FG seat.

Xenophile

touts wrote: »

So thats Labour's strategy for the last week. Scolding people that it's their fault they haven't felt the recovery because they have spent too much money buying stuff. You are really gunning for zero seats!

Why attack The Labour Party, they having to do with the facts that the economists are making public !

Who was that said "We all partied" !

Xenophile

We all partied !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK7w6fXoYxo

touts

Xenophile wrote: »

Why attack The Labour Party, they having to do with the facts that the economists are making public !

Who was that said "We all partied" !

The "We all partied" strategy was a stupid one that didn't work out too well in that election for Fianna Fail. Telling people "You aren't feeling the recovery because you are spending too much on your credit card" is just as stupid.

Anyway put 20 economists into a room and you'll come out with 30 theories of what might happen in the future, one of which will be roughly correct and be hailed as a victory for Economic theory.

westtipp

Xenophile wrote: »

Xenophile wrote: »

*******Latest Betting ! *************

Michael Lowry (Ind) ........... 1/100.................Denis O'Brien must have put a few million on him, he must be the hottest favourite in the election

Alan Kelly (Labour) .............. 3/10........Working Clonmel as he sees the potential there. Now second in the betting!

Tom Hayes (Fine Gael)........... 1/3...............A bit smug

Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fail) ........4/11...........No profile in South of County

Michael Smith (Fianna Fail) .......4/11...........No profile in South of County

Seamus Healy (WUAG) ........... 4/5.............Clonmel people are fed up of all the cul de sacs he has brought them down. + no influence

Mattie McGrath (Ind) ............... 11/10.......................... No influence, has told too many untruths during the campaign. And maybe many people resent the fact that he was the only TD in Dail Eireann to urge a NO vote in The Marriage Equality Referendum[/QUOTE

The odds quoted on Cahill and Smith probably represent the fact that ONE of them will be elected - the question is which one? Can't see FF getting 2 under any circumstances...
Hayes is on the drift (was 1/7) as is Healy (was 1/3). Mattie remaining fairly constant. Lowry shortening all the time (was 1/50). Morris is drifting (now 9/2).
The feeling seems to be that Kelly will be OK but then I spotted this
http://www.irishelectionstats.com/constituencies/tipperary/
Interesting - gives Kelly a 3% chance of a seat and Coonan a 68% chance!!

westtipp

golfball37 wrote: »

Whats the betting on Morris and Coonan X?
I think both will get as high a FPV as Minister Kelly and I can't understand how he is 1/4.

Morris 9/2, Coonan 9/4

Xenophile

westtipp wrote: »

Xenophile wrote: »

The odds quoted on Cahill and Smith probably represent the fact that ONE of them will be elected - the question is which one? Can't see FF getting 2 under any circumstances...
Hayes is on the drift (was 1/7) as is Healy (was 1/3). Mattie remaining fairly constant. Lowry shortening all the time (was 1/50). Morris is drifting (now 9/2).
The feeling seems to be that Kelly will be OK but then I spotted this
http://www.irishelectionstats.com/constituencies/tipperary/
Interesting - gives Kelly a 3% chance of a seat and Coonan a 68% chance!!

This is a ridiculous website whoever is behind it has an agenda.

I just checked Wexford and it also gives the Labour Minister Brendan Howlin only a 3% chance, while it gives the Sinn Fein candidate a 100% chance.

By the way this site seems to be anonymous.

I see our Green Party Candidate will give 35% of his TDs salary to Citizens Information Service. He didn't say if it was the Gross or Net Salary.

Xenophile

Deleted User wrote: »

I see our Green Party Candidate will give 35% of his TDs salary to Citizens Information Service. He didn't say if it was the Gross or Net Salary.

35% of zero is still zero.

If I earn over a million euro this year I will give a 100% of it to charity !

CrowdedHouse

Deleted User wrote: »

I see our Green Party Candidate will give 35% of his TDs salary to Citizens Information Service. He didn't say if it was the Gross or Net Salary.

He followed me on twitter today which I thought was pretty random.

CrowdedHouse

CrowdedHouse wrote: »

He followed me on twitter today which I thought was pretty random.

Be afraid, be VERY afraid!

touts

CrowdedHouse wrote: »

He followed me on twitter today which I thought was pretty random.

I think that makes you a member of the green party. Kind of like how everyone who dies gets made a Mormon by the Mormons.

touts

westtipp wrote: »

Xenophile wrote: »

The odds quoted on Cahill and Smith probably represent the fact that ONE of them will be elected - the question is which one? Can't see FF getting 2 under any circumstances...
Hayes is on the drift (was 1/7) as is Healy (was 1/3). Mattie remaining fairly constant. Lowry shortening all the time (was 1/50). Morris is drifting (now 9/2).
The feeling seems to be that Kelly will be OK but then I spotted this
http://www.irishelectionstats.com/constituencies/tipperary/
Interesting - gives Kelly a 3% chance of a seat and Coonan a 68% chance!!

I wouldn't see anyone bar Lowry and possibly Healy as a dead cert. They say there is a FG seat but its so tight that I wouldn't put money on it. I certainly DONT think Hayes is anywhere near an odds on favourite. As to FF well they are so divided it will probably come down to who else gets eliminated around them. It'll be mayhem for the last couple of seats and Fianna Fail are so divided Mattie could still pip them to that seat.

No one is sharing poll data (the parties will all have done them) and I think that's telling because it probably all so tight no one, bar us anonymous boardies, wants to call it and turn out wrong.

Xenophile

westtipp wrote: »

Quote:


Originally Posted by Xenophile Westtipp View Post


The odds quoted on Cahill and Smith probably represent the fact that ONE of them will be elected - the question is which one? Can't see FF getting 2 under any circumstances...
Hayes is on the drift (was 1/7) as is Healy (was 1/3). Mattie remaining fairly constant. Lowry shortening all the time (was 1/50). Morris is drifting (now 9/2).
The feeling seems to be that Kelly will be OK but then I spotted this
http://www.irishelectionstats.com/co...ies/tipperary/
Interesting - gives Kelly a 3% chance of a seat and Coonan a 68% chance!!

The above post was originally submitted by Westtipp see post number 734

[/B

********************

]This is a ridiculous website whoever is behind it has an agenda.

I just checked Wexford and it also gives the Labour Minister Brendan Howlin only a 3% chance, while it gives the Sinn Fein candidate a 100% chance.

By the way this site seems to be anonymous.

tom_tarbucket

Jaysus, Michael Lowry must have gone to about 3 funerals a day for the last 2 years.

zurbfoundation

tom_tarbucket wrote: »

Jaysus, Michael Lowry must have gone to about 3 funerals a day for the last 2 years.

He had his troops out in force in Clonmel today - I am very interested to see how he polls south of the border

tippspur

zurbfoundation wrote: »

He had his troops out in force in Clonmel today - I am very interested to see how he polls south of the border

Babs Keating canvassing with him I heard.

golfball37

tippspur wrote: »

Babs Keating canvassing with him I heard.

And Eoin Kelly, Lowry should be sent to Syria to sort it out over there if he can get the two lads on the same hymn sheet.

Xenophile

golfball37 wrote: »

And Eoin Kelly, Lowry should be sent to Syria to sort it out over there if he can get the two lads on the same hymn sheet.

If Eoin Kelly came to my door I would like to ask him why he is canvassing for Michael Lowry !

No need to ask Babs ! He would probably tell me that he is just looking for a bit of publicity until the hurling gets going !

touts

golfball37 wrote: »

And Eoin Kelly, Lowry should be sent to Syria to sort it out over there if he can get the two lads on the same hymn sheet.

I suppose there will be a few big state contracts going to the highest briber to rebuild Syria when the war ends.

tipptom

Xenophile wrote: »

If Eoin Kelly came to my door I would like to ask him why he is canvassing for Michael Lowry !

No need to ask Babs ! He would probably tell me that he is just looking for a bit of publicity until the hurling gets going !

Lowry is well in with Coolmore,Babs is probably looking for tips seeing as Johnny Murtagh is a bit quiet at the moment.


To be fair Babs and Lowry raised a lot of money together for Tipp hurling when they were going bad back in the day.

EternalHope

youd want to be some gombeen to vote for mattie going around in that van. he is like killnascully or ritchie kavanagh. no wonder ireland is in such a state when people like him are in the Dail