If Greece can do it, Ireland certainly can..

TheDD

GREECE is a perfect example on how not to run a country

Lisa2011

I guess it was not run properly as many people were left get away with not paying taxes etc. Still though the IMF and EU have no clue what they are doing. You dont continue to throw money at anyone knowing it cant be paid.

I think Greece needs to be left exit the Euro and EU and then start paying back the money when they are in a better financial position.

Carlos Orange

Lisa2011 wrote: »

Still though the IMF and EU have no clue what they are doing. You dont continue to throw money at anyone knowing it cant be paid.

Kinda hard to know when that is when the countries government is a bunch of liars.

The Corinthian

Lisa2011 wrote: »

I guess it was not run properly as many people were left get away with not paying taxes etc.

We were all like that not so long ago. I remember the scandal of the 'baby pensioners' in Italy around 1996 and prior to the late nineties, tax evasion was the national sport in Ireland. The difference is most European nations began to tackle these issues and reform (some more than others), while Greece didn't change anything.

Still though the IMF and EU have no clue what they are doing. You dont continue to throw money at anyone knowing it cant be paid.

It depends on how much it would cost not to throw money at said problem.

TheDD

.
No country ever pays its debt
.
They just keep rolling it over.
.
Greece's current government has the combined IQ of a goat.
.

duffman13

TheDD wrote: »

.
No country ever pays its debt
.
They just keep rolling it over.
.
Greece's current government has the combined IQ of a goat.
.

That's very insulting to goats! The whole government is coming across as an xfactor wannabe, dying for success but deep down knowing the inevitable failure isn't far away.

Is this referendum still going ahead?

Grandpa Hassan

duffman13 wrote: »

That's very insulting to goats! The whole government is coming across as an xfactor wannabe, dying for success but deep down knowing the inevitable failure isn't far away.

Is this referendum still going ahead?

Yes, it is according to the press I have seen this morning.

Personally, I think exit is inevitable, and they should just get on with doing it now. If an agreement is reached, what is being done now will just be repeated down the line, but with the country in a worse position. It is inevitable. I can't believe that the troika persist with implementing these models when they clearly will not work. Sure, a few years ago you would have told people to pay their taxes, but even if people did that now, employment is falling off a cliff. Where do the taxes come from? From where does Greece generate any revenue? Nothing can be done on that side of things other than a keynsian approach to boost growth. It is too far gone.

So what about the other side? There is no way that Greece can cut their way out of this mess. They might be able to tinker around the edges, but the amounts needed a re too big.

So what is the alternative. Debt forgiveness, which will never happen. Or exit, which at least leaves some hope. The model being foisted on Greece by the EU is only going to drive them deeper into the hole, as there is nothing left that will drive revenues and cuts can only go so far before social cohesion completely collapses.

The only question IMO is how quickly do the Greek people want this to play out

catbear

The Corinthian wrote: »

Do you have an address..?

Kantonsstrasse 16, 7302 Landquart, Switzerland

Carlos Orange

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

The model being foisted on Greece by the EU

The EU did not foister the Euro on Greece. The Greeks did.

Grandpa Hassan

psinno wrote: »

The EU did not foister the Euro on Greece. The Greeks did.

I'm not talking about the euro. That's in the past anyway. I'm talking about the supposed strategy / model for Greece to get out of this current mess. Which will clearly not work. The troika's models are failing and yet keep being pushed

catbear

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

I'm not talking about the euro. That's in the past anyway. I'm talking about the supposed strategy / model for Greece to get out of this current mess. Which will clearly not work. The troika's models are failing and yet keep being pushed

The greeks asked for a bailout, they got one. Creditors are entitled to attached conditions.
If I applied for a loan I have to meet those conditions. If I argue with them then on and blame for lending to me they'll have no option but to call in the debt collector. Bankruptcy is the final result.
The EU has been far more flexible than a bank, each Irish person will lose nearly €600 each on a Grexit but poor Malta stands to €1300 per head!

Grandpa Hassan

catbear wrote: »

The greeks asked for a bailout, they got one. Creditors are entitled to attached conditions.
If I applied for a loan I have to meet those conditions. If I argue with them then on and blame for lending to me they'll have no option but to call in the debt collector. Bankruptcy is the final result.
The EU has been far more flexible than a bank, each Irish person will lose nearly €600 each on a Grexit but poor Malta stands to €1300 per head!

Yes, but creditors shoot themselves in the foot if the conditions can't be met, and also if the conditions are based on an economic recovery model which is flawed. Which it is, IMO, as Greece cannot possibly meet the revenue side of the equation. In fact, cuts will be offset by further declines in revenue. So, yes, bankruptcy is the final result, and exit from the Euro. It's just a question of when, as far as I can see. If it is going to happen anyway, then might as well happen now

catbear

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

It's just a question of when, as far as I can see. If it is going to happen anyway, then might as well happen now

I agree. After the missed IMF deadline it was over. The fundamental nature of the EU cannot change for Greece's situation without months and possibly years of negotiations.
I really feel sorry of the greek people but they'll have to establish a new relationship with the EU where it will not let itself become a resentful vassal state.
No one wins in this whole thing, it's been a horrible disappointment.

Grandpa Hassan

I don't believe that anyone in the EU, ECB or IMF actually believe that there is any way out of this for Greece. It is just that they need Greece to make the decision about exit. They can hold their line and send a strong message to other countries, as they know that there is little point negotiating, as it ultimately will make no difference to Greece's ability to survive in the euro.

What's the point in negotiating if it will not change the ultimate outcome and just make you look weak?

The Corinthian

catbear wrote: »

Kantonsstrasse 16, 7302 Landquart, Switzerland

I see. In Graubunden. Thank you.

catbear

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

What's the point in negotiating if it will not change the ultimate outcome and just make you look weak?

If they tried to interject before Tuesday in the internal affairs of the the GReek state it would have given more oxygen to Syriza who would then accuse the EU of imperialism.
No one is actually negotiating anything now and if it's a yes vote no one is entirely sure what there is to discuss on monday.
It's better for the EU if there is a No vote, at least then it can say it respects the right of the greek people and Syriza will be facing a technical committee rather their fellow EU members.

K-9

IrishTrajan wrote: »

Well look at what it's divided into. The German part does all the work, the French complain about the Germans and the Italians don't pay their taxes!

There's a Yes Minister quote in there about that, indeed there is:

Hacker: wrote:

You know what they say about the average Common Market official. He has the organising ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans, and the modesty of the French. And that's topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch and the intelligence of the Irish.

Wouldn't get away with saying that now.

I think the big difference between Greece and us is I can't imagine the foreign multinationals and the IFSC being too happy if we played the same game as them.

Referendum Website up and running.

Looks extremely independent to me alright!!!

Dohnjoe

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Varoufakis says the banks will have cash next week, other sources saying the banks are almost dry (due to run out on Monday apparently)

Perhaps he's been tasked to tell porky pies to keep public confidence high as economy is grinding to a halt who knows

In fairness not all banks in Greece are equally troubled. There's probably a good deal of overnight interbank lending going on within the Greek financial system.

Varoufakis may be referring to this, or he may be referring to a parallel currency, or he may simply foresee the ECB increasing its liquidity cap to the Greek banks, none of which possibilities are unreasonable.

Deleted User wrote: »

Referendum Website up and running.

Looks extremely independent to me alright!!!

Not every country has rules like the Irish rules on constrained government resources during referendum campaigns. Even the UK doesn't.

Carlos Orange

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Not every country has rules like the Irish rules on constrained government resources during referendum campaigns. Even the UK doesn't.

I think the UK used to but they decided to get rid of them for the EU referendum.

kidneyfan

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Varoufakis says the banks will have cash next week, other sources saying the banks are almost dry (due to run out on Monday apparently)

Perhaps he's been tasked to tell porky pies to keep public confidence high as economy is grinding to a halt who knows

Maybe they are planning to print Euro in order to keep the economy ticking over.

Good article by Simon Kuper in today's FT. Everybody knows the political origins of the euro, but it's worth reading Kuper's experience as a financial journalist of the consensus around Greek entry to ERM.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e1926c6a-1a22-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996.html

My stuff usually appeared on page 33. The boredom hardly lifted when improbable countries such as Greece and Italy entered the ERM. Greece’s entry didn’t even get me on to the front page. The Greeks joined partly just to solve a short-term problem: entering the ERM helped fix the drachma’s rate against other European currencies, and thus stopped the market’s attack. Most traders scarcely noticed. They weren’t paid to think about little Greece. They saw it as merely an amusing subplot: the Greeks had lucked into the euro and would now be fine.

“Greece’s economy is too small for any other country to care much about the price of the drachma”, I wrote. Nobody then imagined (or perhaps cared) that Greek entry into the euro would one day produce Europe’s biggest headache. Few in the markets in 1998 asked: “Will the euro work?” They considered that an issue for the long run, when they would all be dead or, with luck, growing wine on their own estates in Tuscany. Instead, traders asked questions like: “Will Greek ERM entry tomorrow move the Deutschmark?”

Politicians barely noticed such technicalities at all. They tended to see the euro as a political project: “building Europe”. We now know the euro did the opposite: it ended the construction of Europe that had begun in Messina in 1955. Today the European project consists of trying to digest the euro.

Jelle1880

So far it seems like No will win by quite a large margin:

http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/e/public/index.html?lang=en#

And Varoufakis doesn't like it when a journalists asks him questions when he's 'celebrating'...

https://twitter.com/nevilleskynews/status/617624661329870848

alaimacerc

psinno wrote: »

I think the UK used to but they decided to get rid of them for the EU referendum.

The UK has, after all, an "unwritten constitution".

This is often pretty much a euphemism for "rule-by-decree lite".

I can't see any logical alternative except an ECB refusal to increase the ELA facility cap, and a refusal or an inability (because of time constraints) of the Eurogroup and European Council to agree to a new bailout programme. How could ELA and a new bailout be justified?

Of course, this assumes that the European institutions will behave logically, which hasn't happened in the past.

Has Greece even formally submitted a new bailout request yet? The Commission can only recommend a bailout if the financial stability of the EA is under threat.

A 1%-1.5% fall in European equities is hardly a threat to the financial stability of the EA.

But I say again, it's too early to conclude that a logical approach will be taken.

DublinWriter

twinytwo wrote: »

Problem is the EU cant let greece sink

Any why can't they?

Just in case we're all feeling a little smug, just remember that while Greece is a country of 10 million people and a national debt of €320bn, Ireland remains of country of 4 million people with a national debt of €200bn.

Per capita, we owe more than Greece.

Jelle1880

DublinWriter wrote: »

Any why can't they?

Just in case we're all feeling a little smug, just remember that while Greece is a country of 10 million people and a national debt of €320bn, Ireland remains of country of 4 million people with a national debt of €200bn.

Per capita, we owe more than Greece.

Again: That is not how debt works.

Ireland has a viable economy that can sustain a debt like that so countries and banks are more than happy to loan money to Ireland.

Greece does not have such an economy and their debt will only continue to grow unless either it gets dropped altogether (will never happen) or unless they completely change their economy to one that can pay back parts of it.

Jelle1880

Jelle1880 wrote: »

Again: That is not how debt works.

Ireland has a viable economy that can sustain a debt like that so countries and banks are more than happy to loan money to Ireland.

Irish Government debt is probably sustainable, but I suspect you're ignoring domestic corporate debt and household debt.

Their debt will only continue to grow unless either it gets dropped altogether (will never happen) or unless they completely change their economy to one that can pay back parts of it.

False dichotomy.

There are alternative and painless methods of improving Greek debt sustainability, such as lengthening maturities on Greece's official debt to the EU and EFSF-ESM, and by reducing the interest rates on the former so that the EU doesn't actually make a profit on them. This would massively contribute to Greek debt sustainability, since these combined liabilities comprise the greatest portion of Greece's sovereign debt.

Bruegel has estimated the NPV benefit as being €30 billion, or 17% of GDP

http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1533-how-to-reduce-the-greek-debt-burden/

Fratton Fred

DublinWriter wrote: »

Any why can't they?

Just in case we're all feeling a little smug, just remember that while Greece is a country of 10 million people and a national debt of €320bn, Ireland remains of country of 4 million people with a national debt of €200bn.

Per capita, we owe more than Greece.

Yes, but much better fiscal controls and a far better method of collecting taxes.

Fratton Fred

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Yes, but much better fiscal controls and a far better method of collecting taxes.

Really? Greece posted a primary budget surplus when Ireland was still in deficit, even despite their challenges with revenue collection. You seem to be distinguishing fiscal controls and tax collection, so what are the superior fiscal controls you speak of?

Ireland is one of only three EU countries which the Commission has said “require decisive policy action and specific monitoring,” and is one of only eight countries in the EU in MIP categories 4 & 5, in other words, it is one of the eight worst performers in terms of fiscal balance (cast in with the likes of Portugal, Slovenia and Bulgaria).

Ireland seems to suffer from this chronic case of fiscal narcissism, loudly condescending to the Greeks on its supposed fiscal soundness, whilst ignoring or dismissing extraordinary and ongoing domestic profligacy, both governmental and household. It's like Celtic Tiger attitudes never died.