If Greece can do it, Ireland certainly can..

Call me Al

tara73 wrote: »

I could be wrong, but my guess is, money is already waiting in line from Mr. Putin. Don't you think?

Tsipras visited him a few weeks ago, was no secret trip, all over the media...

Maybe a more appropriate question to be asked in their referendum is if they choose to take help from Russia, and all the consequences that brings (if it is indeed how their left-wing Tsipras has lined things up unbeknownst to them), over EU/IMF, or paddle their own canoe.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Firstly, Russia are in no position to be propping up a banana republic like Greece currently is. The EU would rain down sanctions like there's no tomorrow. Secondly, Russia is a country whose people are used to hardship and admire toughness and strength. Can't see Putin saying "Ah yeah Syriza, fire ahead and let the hair dressers retire at 55 while I get my peasants to pay for it". Putin's no mug and Greece is clearly a total economic basket case. Thirdly, Greece is a NATO member, if they got into bed with Russia the military implications would be interesting to say the least, especially since the Greek army is well funded and quite proud. Finally, what exactly would Russia get out of saving Greece if they were in a position to do it? A black hole down which they will be pouring money for the foreseeable future? Not going to happen.

Jim2007

twinytwo wrote: »

We have a ticking time bomb of all the soverign debt that will go off 10/12 years down the line.

The country is paying off it's debt to the IMF ahead of time and refinancing further debts at a lower rate. In 10 or 12 years time the country will be in a far better place! As on Swiss banker commented to me: "if you are continuously selling more than you're buying it is hard not to work your way out of such a mess"

tara73

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Firstly, Russia are in no position to be propping up a banana republic like Greece currently is.

how do you know? yes, there's always the saying russia is so poor, but you forget that russia is operating a bit different, meaning there are some private people called oligarchs who own vast amounts of money and then there are the majority of very poor people. does that sound familiar? it is actually familiar to the culture in greece!
and I can imagine putin has some friends within this oligarchs who might like to help him in the situation russia finds itself in atm. (explained later)

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

The EU would rain down sanctions like there's no tomorrow.

you know that the european union is already sanctioning russia? but will they do it 'like there's no tomorrow'? I strongly doubt they can effort this, because it is shooting themself in the own foot, many european companies/farmers etc. who were exporting to russia are loosing money already.

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

secondly, Russia is a country whose people are used to hardship and admire toughness and strength. Can't see Putin saying "Ah yeah Syriza, fire ahead and let the hair dressers retire at 55 while I get my peasants to pay for it". Putin's no mug and Greece is clearly a total economic basket case.

As I said, the paesants will not pay for it, it will be the big money from oligarchs and whoever we don't know about.
And the claim greek people are too lazy to support is not playing a role in the bigger picture for russia. And directly here comes your next point into play...

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Thirdly, Greece is a NATO member, if they got into bed with Russia the military implications would be interesting to say the least, especially since the Greek army is well funded and quite proud. Finally, what exactly would Russia get out of saving Greece if they were in a position to do it? A black hole down which they will be pouring money for the foreseeable future? Not going to happen.

...this is exactly the main point for russia.

you know what the ukrainian conflict (and beforehand mentioned sanctions) is about? It's about the nato getting involved in the ukraine, the ukraine is in many ways important for russia, and they really don't like the prospect of the country falling into US power.

after the berlin wall fell and the negotiations between russia and the west allies/nato started what to do with germany/east germany, the russians, as we all know, gave up their set up in eastern germany and gave it away to create a reunited germany and consequently gave it away to the USA/nato without any fights or war action!!
this is apparently not fixed in a written contract, but there seemed to be a verbal pact that if the russians give away eastern germany, the allies/nato will not set foot in countries adjoining russia. since then, how many countries adjoining russia have joined the european union/nato? Can't count them.
so russia felt kind of betrayed all this years countries joining the eu/nato but didn't say anything. Except now with ukraine. they don't want to let go of that country (which, besides, from my point of view, is understandable, but that is another subject).

So for Mr. Putin, it would be a great thing to have a foot in a european country, as a military strategic base, and last but not least showing the allies/nato that there will be counteraction from russia if they think they can operate as they wish with ukraine or in general for the future.


guys, before you all get agitated, be aware, I know this is speculation and maybe russia will not get involved in greece with a penny, but it's a possibility I see and for some reason I want to share. Next week will definately be interesting in what will happen:).

Mr.Micro

Jim2007 wrote: »

The country is paying off it's debt to the IMF ahead of time and refinancing further debts at a lower rate. In 10 or 12 years time the country will be in a far better place! As on Swiss banker commented to me: "if you are continuously selling more than you're buying it is hard not to work your way out of such a mess"

We have the possibility of FF winning the election in 2016, this would destroy all that hard work.

If Greece accepts Russian help, there will be a price to pay, the Greek Prime Minister may be too naive to realise that.

RobertKK

Mr.Micro wrote: »

We have the possibility of FF winning the election in 2016, this would destroy all that hard work.

If Greece accepts Russian help, there will be a price to pay, the Greek Prime Minister may be too naive to realise that.

The bailout plan was mostly still the same plan as agreed when FF were in power. Just tweaks and then some added concessions due to Greek concessions.

The thing is following an agreed plan worked.

Agree with your second paragraph.

glacial_pace71

Jim2007 wrote: »

The country is paying off it's debt to the IMF ahead of time and refinancing further debts at a lower rate. In 10 or 12 years time the country will be in a far better place! As on Swiss banker commented to me: "if you are continuously selling more than you're buying it is hard not to work your way out of such a mess"

However, we could still see an Italian, Irish, Portuguese and Spanish stampede on our banks. If a euro isn't really a euro any more then why wouldn't capital flow to a hard euro (future euro-mark?) area banking system like Finland or Germany? In the short term there are quite a number of moving parts to watch and contagion effects, however unjustified by the underlying fundamentals, can take on a dynamic of their own. We need Greece to remain in the eurozone in the short term, and less racism from Noonan about feta cheese or whatever his latest sneer happens to be.

johnnyskeleton

JustTheOne wrote: »

No offence but you're talking ****e

Wanderer78 wrote: »

ah listen to them. its just easier. theres so much info in those podcasts. im only processing it all now. i find it very hard to write stuff as well

Saipanne wrote: »

How lazy. And you expect us to take you seriously...

Mod: just a friendly reminder to be civil to each other, and yes if you want to make a point you need to say it on thread and not just rely on a long podcast. Some people have limited data access

loyatemu

Polls suggesting "Yes" will win comfortably in Greece on Sunday, presumably if that happens Tsipras will have to resign having achieved precisely nothing accept creating several months of chaos for Greece.

loyatemu

loyatemu wrote: »

Polls suggesting "Yes" will win comfortably in Greece on Sunday, presumably if that happens Tsipras will have to resign having achieved precisely nothing accept creating several months of chaos for Greece.

He's done more than that. Lasting socio-political and economic damage would be his legacy if a Yes vote and subsequent resignation were to occur.

There's been enormous movements backwards in terms of the recovery of the economy, and the mood of the country would be even further fractured and resentful.

jmayo

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Firstly, Russia are in no position to be propping up a banana republic like Greece currently is. The EU would rain down sanctions like there's no tomorrow.

Don't make us laugh.
The EU are incapable of raining down anything bar bullsh**, unless of course you are Irish and take anything that is offered.
See how long it took them to do anythign about Yugoslavia until US and NATO got really involved.
And then there were even less members to cajole.

Half of EU rely on Russian gas to keep them warm.
Coming into autumn/winter it would not be the most apt time to invite the Russians to have your population freezing, especially in cold Northern and Eastern Europe.

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Thirdly, Greece is a NATO member, if they got into bed with Russia the military implications would be interesting to say the least, especially since the Greek army is well funded and quite proud.

This is the interesting one and if push comes to shove could lead to a coup by the military.
If Tsipras hasn't considered this then he is an even bigger muppet than we thought.
The Americans already operate out of bases like Souda so it would be very interesting if he offered a base on one of the other islands.

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Finally, what exactly would Russia get out of saving Greece if they were in a position to do it? A black hole down which they will be pouring money for the foreseeable future? Not going to happen.

It is the two fingers that they would give to the meddling EU, NATO and ultimately the US that would be the prize for Putin.
Apart from that and a base I can't see many pluses for him, given the money it would cost.
Tsipras is trying to bluff his way.

Scofflaw

One for the Krugman fans:

Mark Weisbrot has been arguing, for some time now, that Greece must try to emulate Argentina; that is, to default on its debts not as a bargaining strategy that yields a New Deal within the Eurozone but, rather, in the context of exiting the Eurozone altogether and going it alone. Recently, Paul Krugman has endorsed this position (see here and here). I think they are profoundly wrong.

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2012/05/16/weisbrot-and-krugman-are-wrong-greece-cannot-pull-off-an-argentina/

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw

And the Commission's statement on Greek capital controls:

The European Commission takes note of temporary restrictions on the free movement of capital which were announced by the Greek authorities on Sunday evening and have now been published in the official gazette.

In accordance with the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, Member States may take measures in respect of capital movements which are justified on grounds of public policy or public security.

In accordance with the case law of the Court of Justice of the European Union, measures may also be introduced for other overriding reasons of general public interest. Such exceptions to the principle of the free movement of capital must be interpreted very strictly, and be non-discriminatory, as well as suitable and proportionate in light of the objective. This also means that capital controls must be applied for the shortest possible period.

As guardian of the Treaties and with a view to safeguarding the integrity of the single market, the Commission has made an immediate, preliminary assessment of the Greek measures that introduce the controls and finds them to be, prima facie, justified.

In the current circumstances, the stability of the financial and banking system in Greece constitutes a matter of overriding public interest and public policy that would appear to justify the imposition of temporary restrictions on capital flows. Maintaining financial stability is the main and immediate challenge for the country.

While the imposed restrictive measures appear necessary and proportionate at this time, the free movement of capital will however need to be reinstated as soon as possible in the interest of the Greek economy, the Eurozone, and the European Union's single market as a whole. The Commission will closely monitor the situation and the implementation of the imposed restrictive measures on capital movements.

The Commission stands ready to assist the Greek authorities with the technical aspects of this work.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Idbatterim

Polls suggesting "Yes" will win comfortably in Greece on Sunday, presumably if that happens Tsipras will have to resign having achieved precisely nothing accept creating several months of chaos for Greece.

so will the greek electorate / politicians going forward now know that they can forget large write offs or an easy solution and go for fiscally prudent / conservative parties (If they have such a thing)? Why bother with the unnecessary chaos, the vast majority want to stay in Euro and the hard "we will take you down negotiations" have gotten them nowhere but in a worse position...

Wanderer78

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Mod: just a friendly reminder to be civil to each other, and yes if you want to make a point you need to say it on thread and not just rely on a long podcast. Some people have limited data access

....and some are dyslexic and find it difficult to express their opinions in written form!

daheff

micosoft wrote: »

Seriously? What planet are you on? The overall outcome has been revealed. The Irish approach was right - we have economic growth and the question is how rich we will become and how low our unemployment will get. Greece has become a failed state. Would you seriously prefer to be a Greek today?

the biggest reason for Ireland coming out of the bailout so quickly is because of the fall of the value of the Eur. As our biggest trading partners (UK & US) are outside the EUR, any drop in value makes out output more competitive, so they buy more. They buy more, we get more taxes & jobs. Lets our national accounts look better. We're still saddled with 200bn of national debt that needs paying off. (Modest) Inflation would help lessen the burden on the country.

micosoft wrote: »

The difference is that Iceland had an economy based on Fish, Energy and some tourism to fallback on.
Greece had an economy based on ripping off the rest of Europe to pay for their lifestyle. The Russians are not that stupid.

And the Greeks have shipping and tourism.

One thing people always forget is that somebody made the decision to loan money to Greece/Ireland/Spain etc. Somebody who had the money thought they could pay it back (or were guaranteed by the ECB/EU that they'd get their money back). Because of this ease getting money, its allowed countries like Ireland/Spain/Greece/Portugal/Italy be somewhat reckless in their borrowings.

There are two sides to this problem, but currently its only the borrower who is being penalised. Is that fair? not at all.

Interest is paid on loans to compensate for risk. If there isn't enough interest paid, then the lendor is not adequately preparing themselves for default. And in my view deserves to be on the bad side of a default.

daheff

daheff wrote: »

the biggest reason for Ireland coming out of the bailout so quickly is because of the fall of the value of the Eur. As our biggest trading partners (UK & US) are outside the EUR, any drop in value makes out output more competitive, so they buy more. They buy more, we get more taxes & jobs. Lets our national accounts look better. We're still saddled with 200bn of national debt that needs paying off. (Modest) Inflation would help lessen the burden on the country.


And the Greeks have shipping and tourism.

One thing people always forget is that somebody made the decision to loan money to Greece/Ireland/Spain etc. Somebody who had the money thought they could pay it back (or were guaranteed by the ECB/EU that they'd get their money back). Because of this ease getting money, its allowed countries like Ireland/Spain/Greece/Portugal/Italy be somewhat reckless in their borrowings.

There are two sides to this problem, but currently its only the borrower who is being penalised. Is that fair? not at all.

Interest is paid on loans to compensate for risk. If there isn't enough interest paid, then the lendor is not adequately preparing themselves for default. And in my view deserves to be on the bad side of a default.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-10-27/europe-leaders-set-50-greek-writedown-1-4-trillion-in-debt-crisis-fight

Is this true? Lenders have not gotten off lightly at all.

tara73

at this stage, I think this Tsipras & Co are just complete nutcases.

Apparently Tsipras now wrote a letter to EU Ministers begging to start negotiations again.
I mean, I thought before they are clowns, but it seems they don't even know in the slightest what they are doing, not even basics how to play the game in politics, but they do it nevertheless. They are a disaster for greece.
where do they come from at all? every 18 year old newbie in politics seems to be smarter than them.

Greeks would be mad to vote Yes. They would be voting Yes to an agreement and a programme that doesn't even exist. So a Yes vote means new negotiations and a new programme. Any subsequent government would be under enormous strain to concede to the Authorities in the subsequent negotiations. They would have no mandate to say No. The post-referendum government would have no hand of cards to play. It would be a matter of Greece being run by Berlin.

On the other hand, things will have become so bad in Greece by that stage (presumably mid-July) that a Grexit will still be on the table, because the Greek economy will be absolutely slaughtered.

In other words, even if it's a Yes vote, this is disastrous for Greece, and for the Eurozone (which will end up paying for an aggravated crisis).

The best thing the Greeks can do is cut their losses and walk away. For their own sake, nobody else's.

loyatemu

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Greeks would be mad to vote Yes. They would be voting Yes to an agreement and a programme that doesn't even exist. So a Yes vote means new negotiations and a new programme. Any subsequent government would be under enormous strain to concede to the Authorities in the subsequent negotiations. They would have no mandate to say No. The post-referendum government would have no hand of cards to play. It would be a matter of Greece being run by Berlin.

A No vote benefits nobody - they will get the deal that was on the table at the weekend at the very least, possibly with some sweeteners. Juncker has just given a press conference urging them to vote Yes and talking about debt relief. If they vote Yes and the Syriza govt falls that's a win/win for the EU, they're hardly going to go into negotiations with the new Greek govt trying to extract an extra pound of flesh.

loyatemu

loyatemu wrote: »

A No vote benefits nobody - they will get the deal that was on the table at the weekend at the very least, possibly with some sweeteners.

The deal that was on the table has been taken off the table by the Eurogroup, which was a ridiculous own-goal, from the perspective of getting the Greeks to vote Yes.

That programme expires tomorrow.

There then has to be a new round of negotiations if Greeks vote Yes. The Greeks are voting Yes to an agreement that no longer binds the Eurogroup or the Authorities.

jmayo

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

The deal that was on the table has been taken off the table by the Eurogroup, which was a ridiculous own-goal, from the perspective of getting the Greeks to vote Yes.

That programme expires tomorrow.

There then has to be a new round of negotiations if Greeks vote Yes. The Greeks are voting Yes to an agreement that no longer binds the Eurogroup or the Authorities.

That's what I thought as well ?
The whole thing is turning into a farce.
If there is a Yes then surely the government have to resign, so who then negotiates ?
And can they have closed banks all the time it takes to sort this out ?
It looks like it has to be Grexit.

Jim2007

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

The deal that was on the table has been taken off the table by the Eurogroup, which was a ridiculous own-goal, from the perspective of getting the Greeks to vote Yes.

That programme expires tomorrow.

There then has to be a new round of negotiations if Greeks vote Yes. The Greeks are voting Yes to an agreement that no longer binds the Eurogroup or the Authorities.

If you listen to the news casts - there was no deal, they had completed the technical parts of the proposal which represented about a 3rd of the work when the Greeks left the discussions.

jmayo

jmayo wrote: »

If there is a Yes then surely the government have to resign, so who then negotiates ?

Probably a government of national unity, led by Antonis Samaras. Varoufakis has already acknowledged a Yes vote will require a reconfiguration within government.

I don't think it's particularly important who negotiates. The main problem is that by the time of the negotiations, the crisis in the Greek economy will be so serious that further austerity than originally planned will be deemed necessary by Berlin. And after a Yes vote, the new Government will have no moral authority to refuse.

It will be a case of the Greek voters undermining Greek democracy via the democratic channel. The new government will effectively have to say yes to whatever is demanded of them by the Eurogroup.

Asmooh

No need for Ireland to step out the EU, and didn't the EU paid for all those new roads over here?

Godge

Wanderer78 wrote: »

patience patience patience!

its all a game and it aint over yet. believe it or not the imf and co are equally to blame in all the panic in fact id put more blame on their side. check out some of the podcasts i posted earlier. puts a bit of a spin on things. the whole thing seems like, you're damned if you do and damned if you dont. kinna like with what happened with ireland but i think we played the game very badly. greece is showing a lot of strength in all this. its going to be very interesting to see the overall outcome of all this

Yes, Ireland is the fastest growing economy in the EU, Greece is a basket case therefore we played the game very badly.

I am a bit confused by your logic, explain it again please how Greece are doing so well with banks unable to open for a week?

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i do feel for the greek people here, this must be a very difficult time for them but in the long run, this actually might be the best thing for them. who knows. only time will tell. im sure there will be a few years of very difficult times for them but it may all settle down after that. i dont think anybody really knows whats gonna happen. we re all just speculating. i think they played the game very well.

Certainly, you don't appear to know. If Greece leaves the Euro, there will be a lost decade for them.

loyatemu

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

The deal that was on the table has been taken off the table by the Eurogroup, which was a ridiculous own-goal, from the perspective of getting the Greeks to vote Yes.

And yet Juncker stood up today and urged the Greeks to vote Yes. If the negotiations restart with a new government, they will start with more or less the same deal on the table.

Ironically, if as Juncker suggested today, debt relief is part of that deal, Tsipras can probably claim some credit for forcing their hand on that; however he'll have to resign anyway.

If they vote No, they're effectively on their own.

loyatemu

loyatemu wrote: »

And yet Juncker stood up today and urged the Greeks to vote Yes.

Sorry, what do you think this is contradicting? Of course he's urging Yes. He's hardly urging a No vote is he.

The issue is that the Authorities should have fluidly extended the proposals and programme into next week. By not doing so, they are effectively asking the Greek people to vote Yes to redundant proposals that are binding on nobody.

If the negotiations restart with a new government, they will start with more or less the same deal on the table.

The proposals will begin on Monday, after a week of capital controls, two weeks before Greece is due to default on ECB obligations.

Are you seriously suggesting to me that the fiscal metrics are stable regardless? That the current events has no effect on the stability of the Greek economy?

It was obvious since Saturday night that this was bad news. Tspiras cannot simply freeze time; As a result of shut banks, capital controls, redenomination risk and political risk, the Greek economy is plunging into a deep crisis. The Eurogroup will insist on deeper consolidation (austerity) to respond to the new landscape.

The pointless refusal to extend the programme has exacerbated this crisis. It was infuriatingly unnecessary, and it benefits nobody.

In case it hasn't been posted yet, the outline of the proposals which the Greek public are being asked to vote on, is here (see pdf attachment)

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-5270_en.htm

View

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

The pointless refusal to extend the programme has exacerbated this crisis. It was infuriatingly unnecessary, and it benefits nobody.

It was the Greeks who walked away from the negotiations, not the rest of the Eurozone.

Asking the rest of the Eurozone to loan them the money that the Greeks would need in order to tell the rest of the Eurozone to f$k off in their referendum is more than a little unrealistic to put it mildly.

If they haven't got enough money to fund themselves for the week or so until the referendum is over then they had no business calling it as refusing the deal on offer is pure economic suicide.