COLD SPELL Jan 28th Onwards: Wintry Showers/Frosty, Some Snow Accumulations

munsterlegend

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

All FI stuff as it always was, Wednesday/Thursday still as is for west and North. Everyone else just sticking their tongue out in hope

the Met Eireann forecast see showers as fairly widespread. the west and north will certainly do well but other areas could as well. anyway it will be radar watching from tomorrow evening on no matter what happens today.

vicwatson

Oh to be in Boston or New York, now thats real snow.

JCX BXC

vicwatson wrote: »

Oh to be in Boston or New York, now thats real snow.

Dream stuff. I don't know if the Irish could handle it

munsterlegend

Carnacalla wrote: »

Dream stuff. I don't know if the Irish could handle it

yeah we'd be in an awful way and completely under prepared. I want snow but a few cm's will do.

maquiladora

Looking at the HIRLAM, the northwest and parts of the west could see up to around 10cm by Wednesday night. Elsewhere about 1-3cm, depending on where showers end up before dying out. Wouldn't expect anything more than a dusting for some southern or eastern parts.

Ogie84

Carnacalla wrote: »

Dream stuff. I don't know if the Irish could handle it

No chance we'd be able to cope... TV3 would have to make a series of documentaries on it

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Looking at the HIRLAM, the northwest and parts of the west could see up to around 10cm by Wednesday night. Elsewhere about 1-3cm, depending on where showers end up before dying out. Wouldn't expect anything more than a dusting for some southern or eastern parts.

the Hirlam looks very heavy for north cork wednesday night Thursday morning. Maq are the temps and dp ok nationwide for snow?

hotwhiskey

Looking at the 96z fax it has embedded troughs moving down from the North. This will really beef up the bands of showers which in turn will move much further inland on the strong NW.

Rebelbrowser

I'm a huge fan of MTs forecasts and what he does for us for free but I wonder if having overplayed snow events previously he has resolved to be more conservative this winter? A few examples of that to date. He could be right (in general you won't lose too much money betting on rain in Ireland) but I genuinely don't think his forecast reflects the models or, more importantly, the local knowledge we have of how these events have played out before. Let's see though. As always I'm gormlessly optimistic!

maquiladora

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Looking at the 96z fax it has embedded troughs moving down from the North. This will really beef up the bands of showers which in turn will move much further inland on the strong NW.

By Friday this will be more likely to be falling as rain rather than snow, apart from on high ground. Conditions won't be as favorable as on Wednesday/Thursday morning.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

the Hirlam looks very heavy for north cork wednesday night Thursday morning. Maq are the temps and dp ok nationwide for snow?

On the Estonian site HIRLAM looks very poor for snow in the south Wednesday, only trace amounts in spots. Thursday morning does show more precip reaching the south, though its shown as a mix of snow/rain.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

On the Estonian site HIRLAM looks very poor for snow in the south Wednesday, only trace amounts in spots. Thursday morning does show more precip reaching the south, though its shown as a mix of snow/rain.

thanks Maq. as ever nothing straightforward when it comes to snow in these parts.

however from past experience of these set ups I'd be optimistic for my location. by the coast down south could be a problem though.

the Met Eireann update is very wintry at 9 07 for all parts of the country which is another positive.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

JanuarySnowstor

For Cork

Expect sleet and wet snow throughout Wednesday with very little lying even on hills. Later on Wednesday night and more so early Thursday a more organised band of snow will move down giving accumulations of several cm over the hills. City Centre shouldn't see much if any sticking but could still be icy
More sleet and snow showrs through Thursday adding to deposits over the hills.

In general not a bad 48 hours for us but widespread disruption looking less likely now due to daytime maxes being well above zero.

Could be better could be worse c'est la vie ☺

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

For Cork

Expect sleet and wet snow throughout Wednesday with very little lying even on hills. Later on Wednesday night and more so early Thursday a more organised band of snow will move down giving accumulations of several cm over the hills. City Centre shouldn't see much if any sticking but could still be icy
More sleet and snow showrs through Thursday adding to deposits over the hills.

In general not a bad 48 hours for us but widespread disruption looking less likely now due to daytime maxes being well above zero.

Could be better could be worse c'est la vie ☺

Thanks JS. Outside of Cork city on lower levels could be a good bit of lying snow if it falls as snow of course.

Oneiric 3

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Ecm is vile long term

Inclined to agree. Just seems to be falling back into what is the normal pattern this winter so far with a regular procession of weak, drizzle-laden fronts followed by largely weak polar incursions. If this is what the remainder of the winter is to be like, then I'd rather it finished sooner rather than later. :P

DIF

munsterlegend wrote: »

Thanks JS. Outside of Cork city on lower levels could be a good bit of lying snow if it falls as snow of course.

Could this be Cork in a few days time... eh no.... but we can dream!

Pangea

Almost forgot I was in the thread for the impending snowfest in the North West with the above comments, the 'I wish winter is over thread' is that way guys!

Larbre34

munsterlegend wrote: »

Thanks JS. Outside of Cork city on lower levels could be a good bit of lying snow if it falls as snow of course.

The chances of any low level snow in Cork are poor all week in fairness. I cant see evidence for anything but upper level lying snow for about 100 kms inland from the coasts in a swathe from Meath, Dublin, Wicklow, Wexford, Waterford, Cork and Kerry.

munsterlegend

Larbre34 wrote: »

The chances of any low level snow in Cork are poor all week in fairness. I cant see evidence for anything but upper level lying snow for about 100 kms inland from the coasts in a swathe from Meath, Dublin, Wicklow, Wexford, Waterford, Cork and Kerry.

thanks for bursting that bubble! what is the main problem?dp? temp?

Larbre34

munsterlegend wrote: »

thanks for bursting that bubble! what is the main problem?dp? temp?

In descending order I'd say lack of energy, modified air, temps and DPs. The days are lengthening, daily maxes are too high for too long into the night,especially in stiff breezes and you will have decent ground warming as the sun will appear a lot in sheltered counties. Maybe a bit of night time ninja snow on Wednesday night but overall just a couple of fairly raw bracing days for Munster and Leinster.

munsterlegend

the best time i find for snow down here anyway is from 5-8 am in the morning. i think we'll get some lying snow where I am which is not near the coast though within the 100km coast range. the fact Met Eireann are on board re falling snow makes me even more optimistic but you could well be right.

davidsr20

Ok we really need to move on from cork lol

munsterlegend

davidsr20 wrote: »

Ok we really need to move on from cork lol

Galway looks well placed away from the Coast. anyway no matter what else is said today it will be a nowcast from tomorrow afternoon on.

FWVT

Larbre34 wrote: »

In descending order I'd say lack of energy, modified air, temps and DPs. The days are lengthening, daily maxes are too high for too long into the night,especially in stiff breezes and you will have decent ground warming as the sun will appear a lot in sheltered counties. Maybe a bit of night time ninja snow on Wednesday night but overall just a couple of fairly raw bracing days for Munster and Leinster.

The sun factor is not such an issue yet. At 53N the direct radiation is around 620 W/m2, up from around 520 on Dec 21st and still a long way from the 1050 W/m2 in mid summer. Today's radiation is the same as around November 15th, however the land is several degrees cooler, therefore a lot of this radiation has this much more work to do in heating it up. It is not strong enough to affect melting of the airborne snowflakes eithr.

It is this lack of diabatic heating which is going to kill many showers on their way across the country. I think the total accumulated precip chart I posted last night could still be looking very likely and it will be pot luck for anyone in the eastern third of the country.

redsteveireland

munsterlegend wrote: »

Galway looks well placed away from the Coast. anyway no matter what else is said today it will be a nowcast from tomorrow afternoon on.

At 20-25kms inland I'm hoping to get something out of this event. I got a decent 4-5cms of powdery snow mixed with pellets recently but it had thawed by late afternoon.

AnotherYear

Met office updated their snow warning for the North. Sticking to 5-10cm for low levels and over 15cm for higher ground. Blizzard conditions at times with lightning possible. Snow showers will be driven well inland on strong to gale force Northwesterly winds.

maquiladora

Euro4, for what it's worth, though it does have a habit of overdoing the longevity of showers so take it with a pinch of road salt.

hotwhiskey

Dewpoints for Friday are not good holding around 1 to 0c in these parts. But increasing as you go further south.

Tomorrow before the front moves through hitting double figures along the south coast.



6hrs later.



Friday 6am not so good if we have precipitation but in heavier showers snow is certainly possible more so at elevation.


But dewpoints falling back once again as we move through Saturday into Sunday.



I know living in these parts with this set we are in for many inches over a 48 hour period. Friday into Saturday has a big one of these ?.

Anyways the chart below over ten years ago we got 4 inches on Christmas morning and its not to disampler to Thursday chart.

2004


2015

Gonzo

looks like very little to see here for eastern coastal counties once again and back to mild from next Tuesday, meh!

Kristopherus

Just watched the WF on the Beeb News channel. Showed a lot of snow possible north of a line from Galway to Dublin with a few rogue showers making it further south. All this to happen tomorrow/evening/night to early Thursday.