COLD SPELL Jan 28th Onwards: Wintry Showers/Frosty, Some Snow Accumulations

Kermit.de.frog

I guess we can open an event thread now we have cross model agreement for Wednesday and Thursday.

I think it's best to take this a step at a time in relation to the upcoming cold snap because the situation is very fluid, marginal and dynamic from Thursday evening. For Wednesday and Thursday the guidance is rock solid though.

Wednesday, Wednesday night, Thursday

Main points:

• Rapid temperature drop through Wednesday morning countrywide
• Temps 3 - 12c at first, falling to 0 - 3c through the afternoon
• Showers turning to snow before sunrise in the far west to low levels with accumulations before the afternoon away from immediate wind ward coasts
• Showers intensify through the day turning to snow in most places by late afternoon
• Snow showers widespread Wednesday night but especially Connaught, Ulster, North Leinster and West Munster
• Significant and potentially disruptive accumulations in the western half of the country overnight
• Strong northwesterly wind with gusts touching gale occasionally in exposed locations
• Some frost overnight in the east and south, limited elsewhere due to brisk wind
• Overnight temps circa -2 - +1c
• May turn slightly milder through Thursday afternoon with snow showers turning back to rain or sleet at low levels and a temporary day time thaw may set in where snow has settled
• Colder than average conditions to continue for forseeable with occasional marginal snow risk at times

Don't forget to keep up to date with MT's forecasts.

******UPDATE *************

Friday 30th January - Thursday 5th February

Overview

Hi all, an update to the OP.

The cold conditions are set to remain until at least Thursday and even this time frame could yet be extended. Winds will vary north to northwesterly and will be strong for a time tomorrow though may go southeasterly temporarily on Monday. After Tuesday winds go more northeasterly.

Temperatures

Daytime temperatures will remain low throughout generally in low single figures between 0 and 4c but night time temperatures will really tumble.

Tonight temperatures will fall to around -2 c in many areas and this brings with it frost and ice for untreated roads. Tomorrow night temperatures will fall further to around -2 or 3 c widely (slightly milder near wind ward coasts). Sunday night will see temperatures as low as -5 or -6 c particularly in the northern half of the country where snow is lying. Again frost and ice will be an additional hazard to any lying snow. Monday night again temperatures sub zero and down to -2 or -3 c generally but under cloudier skies. Again slightly milder on Atlantic coasts. Night time temperatures on current trends will plunge even further midweek and could get as low as -6 or -7 c locally.

Precipitation - Rainfall/snowfall

From tonight most of the expected precipitation will be snow. Over the weekend snow showers will mostly affect Ulster, west Connaught and west Munster settling in places particularly across Ulster. Occasionally some may get lost and end up in north Leinster or the midlands at times so don't be surprised with a random dusting one morning.

This applies to tonight, tomorrow and Sunday.

2 potential snow "events" to watch

On Monday a warm front will attempt to move in off the Atlantic but will stall somewhere near the southwest. This will be coming in to contact with very cold air over the country and the rain will turn to snow away from far southwest coastal areas. There is potential for some heavy snowfall from this that may well be disruptive.

Currently this looks to affect most of Munster and south Connaught. Another affect could be to drag in some light snowfall to eastern counties off the Irish sea.

People in these areas should keep up to date because the exact position of this is a little uncertain still and it may yet affact more than the areas mentioned but the current concensus is it is the southwest that takes the hit here.

MONDAY NIGHT

There is less certainty about Monday night. Currently it looks like an active but shallow trough or small area of developing low pressure will move down from the north. At this stage upper air temperatures and ground temperatures will be very low and it's about as close as we can get to a sure thing for snow in Ireland - on current trends. There is potential for heavy and in places significant snowfall and some disruption.

Again keep up to date with this because it could affect your journey on Tuesday morning.

The orange fonts are the two features that really need to be taken in to account in the coming days. There potentially will be severe weather at times but mostly it should be nice be to look at.

Nabber

You always need graphs DM, always need graphs. Bullet points are nice. But the lack flare

Hopefully wind speed can help lessen the sea modification and prkvide more for people at sea level

Mech1

Im in, hope your right!

Bejubby

I suppose the south east gets nothing again in terms of lying snow!

Kermit.de.frog

Nabber wrote: »

You always need graphs DM, always need graphs. Bullet points are nice. But the lack flare

:eek:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsqJFIJ5lLs

Musicman2000

Bejubby wrote: »

I suppose the south east gets nothing again in terms of lying snow!

The Southeast never dose well from a NorthWesterly. But you never know if the winds are strong enough you will see a few showers but probably marginal . Hopefully we might get an Easterly or North Easterly in mid February.

Kermit.de.frog

With instability comes embedded trough lines that can really beef up activity at times. I'd say most are going to see snow over the 48 hour period even the far southeast.

Bejubby

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

With instability comes embedded trough lines that can really beef up activity at times. I'd say most are going to see snow over the 48 hour period even the far southeast.

The previous north Westerly brought showers as far as the Comeragh mountains and then they had disintegrated by the time they hit the south east.
They ended up as cloudy days with no precipitation.
So ye hopefully well have big beefy showers this time.

FWVT

GFS sounding for around north Kildare at 18Z on Wednesday. Plenty of snow in that. Massive saturated cold layer forming oodles of snow crystals. Plenty of graupel and proper snow flakes. Warm and dry sub 3 degree surface layer of only around 150 m deep should mean that these flakes should survive to all levels.

Saganist

Bejubby wrote: »

The previous north Westerly brought showers as far as the Comeragh mountains and then they had disintegrated by the time they hit the south east.
They ended up as cloudy days with no precipitation.
So ye hopefully well have big beefy showers this time.

Looks good for now.

BLIZZARD7

Interesting period of weather coming up- Will feel very cold from midweek in all parts. Snow showers should be quite widespread at times - possibly mixing with sleet/hail/rain later in the week away from the north before another surge of cold air moves south but thats too far away to look at in detail.

I'd expect accumulations to be mainly over higher ground away from the north and west but possible in all areas overnight or if the showers are beefy enough.

All in all looking very good for cold weather starting this week compared to what the models were showing just a few days ago. The East may even get in on the action properly for the first time this winter if we can get a north-easterly tilt to the wind later on.

flanzer

Wow, that year went quick! :pac:

I bailed out of the last snow thread wishing everyone the best, as the chance of snow had passed :pac:

I'm back again for my fix :(:)

Bejubby

Saganist wrote: »

Looks good for now.

Sure does ,and loads to follow from the Atlantic.

Be great if it happens.
Kids will be delighted.

jack o shea

it wont snow so no need for this thread unless you live on a mountain.

MOD NOTE

Having just had the pleasure of going through all of your postings on this weather forum , all posts bar one have been one liners looking for a reaction , Im happy enough to say goodbye to you and your trolling ways, thanks for the memories , it's been emotional !

yorlum11

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I guess we can open an event thread now we have cross model agreement for Wednesday and Thursday.

I think it's best to take this a step at a time in relation to the upcoming cold snap because the situation is very fluid, marginal and dynamic from Thursday evening. For Wednesday and Thursday the guidance is rock solid though.

Wednesday, Wednesday night, Thursday

Main points:

• Rapid temperature drop through Wednesday morning countrywide
• Temps 3 - 12c at first, falling to 0 - 3c through the afternoon
• Showers turning to snow before sunrise in the far west to low levels with accumulations before the afternoon away from immediate wind ward coasts
• Showers intensify through the day turning to snow in most places by late afternoon
• Snow showers widespread Wednesday night but especially Connaught, Ulster, North Leinster and West Munster
• Significant and potentially disruptive accumulations in the western half of the country overnight
• Strong northwesterly wind with gusts touching gale occasionally in exposed locations
• Some frost overnight in the east and south, limited elsewhere due to brisk wind
• Overnight temps circa -2 - +1c
• May turn slightly milder through Thursday afternoon with snow showers turning back to rain or sleet at low levels and a temporary day time thaw may set in where snow has settled
• Colder than average conditions to continue for forseeable with occasional marginal snow risk at times

I wonder would the mods mind changing this thread as we go along. I think it worked well last time.

Quality post KDF, followed your last thread and found it most useful. Keep up the good work. Roll on the snow

yorlum11

Musicman2000 wrote: »

The Southeast never dose well from a NorthWesterly. But you never know if the winds are strong enough you will see a few showers but probably marginal . Hopefully we might get an Easterly or North Easterly in mid February.

I certainly see your point as I have often watched as an easterly deposited snow on the East and South only for a northerly to appear and help us out. Point is looking at this a N/E or indeed and easterly is not out of the question later on. This spell looks solid up to the weekend but uncertain after that. Potential looks good going forward.

Fingers crossed for all corners of Eire!!

HankSchrader

Bejubby wrote: »

Sure does ,and loads to follow from the Atlantic.

Be great if it happens.
Kids will be delighted.

The 'kids'

Nabber

If some one comes on and says 'loads of snow here'. ... without
1. Saying where 'here' is
2. No pictures
3. Saying winter is over now (when it stops)

I am going to hunt you down......

Bejubby

HankSchrader wrote: »

The 'kids'

And me:)

mickger844posts

Bejubby wrote: »

The previous north Westerly brought showers as far as the Comeragh mountains and then they had disintegrated by the time they hit the south east.
They ended up as cloudy days with no precipitation.
So ye hopefully well have big beefy showers this time.

This summed up our situation perfectly. Although rare if winds are strong enough showers can make there way to the far south east. A good example of this was in Feb. 2013 when we had a few cm's of lying snow in Waterford City from a North Westerly.

www.waterfordweather.com

Bejubby

mickger844posts wrote: »

This summed up our situation perfectly. Although rare if winds are strong enough showers can make there way to the far south east. A good example of this was in Feb. 2013 when we had a few cm's of lying snow in Waterford City from a North Westerly.

www.waterfordweather.com

That's right and here's a pic of a snowman I built with my 3 yr old son.
Tiny but he got the jist.

Bejubby

Pic disappeard

pistolpetes11

Im getting interested , very interested :P

JanuarySnowstor

Well the 18 continues the trend.

Wednesday is the day really with widespread heavy snow showers and surely lying snow in many areas by Thursday morning.
Thursday continue with more of the same though ppm is modelled to ease off later.
I would think disruption.....school closures etc look highly likely further West.

Beyond Thursday looks the wrong side of marginal for a couple of days before a reload on Sunday

All in all some fascinating weather lies in store and I for one will be loving it no matter how long or short

JCX BXC

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

school closures etc look highly likely further West.

School closes, I have an excuse to stay at home:P
That would make 3 Thursdays in a row I've had an excuse to stay at home. Now, define west..

Rougies

Carnacalla wrote: »

School closes, I have an excuse to stay at home:P
That would make 3 Thursdays in a row I've had an excuse to stay at home. Now, define west..

That's actually a good question. If you do a google images search of "regions of Ireland" you get a lot of different opinions on the different regions. They're mostly politically or touristy based though and not much use for snow bunnies deciphering metE forecasts.

I think some kind of Euler-diagram map of regions for meteorological/geographic regions would be better than trying to define specific borders. I might try to conjour one up in photoshop for the craic.

For you I would consider Clare to be mostly west but somewhat southwest too (which also could be both, or neither!).

Oneiric 3

The set up for Wednesday looks nice for some potential thunderstorms as well, especially for NW coastal counties.

JCX BXC

It appears that the forecasts issued in November (With the obvious exception of the dope James Madden) were actually quite accurate.

http://clareherald.com/2014/11/04/long-range-winter-forecast-for-ireland-and-uk-34535/

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The set up for Wednesday looks nice for some potential thunderstorms as well, especially for NW coastal counties.

RuthieRose

What's the northern midlands looking at here? Namely Cavan/Monaghan & Longford areas? I've gotta be on the road a bit with work this week so need to organise my diary. Don't want to be driving up a back road on Thursday when I could have do it on Tuesday... If you catch my drift. ;()

Oneiric 3

Carnacalla wrote: »

It appears that the forecasts issued in November (With the obvious exception of the dope James Madden) were actually quite accurate.

http://clareherald.com/2014/11/04/long-range-winter-forecast-for-ireland-and-uk-34535/

Quote from the Weather Services International in that article.

"WSI (Weather Services International), the company behind The Weather Channel, says winter 2014-15 will be a season of two halves with the coldest weather likely to occur during January and February.

Now, call me cynical..

kittyn

RuthieRose wrote: »

What's the northern midlands looking at here? Namely Cavan/Monaghan & Longford areas? I've gotta be on the road a bit with work this week so need to organise my diary. Don't want to be driving up a back road on Thursday when I could have do it on Tuesday... If you catch my drift. ;()

My advice Ruthie is get as much of your driving done tomorrow and Tuesday if you can so your covered

mickger844posts

Not on the same scale but parallels can be drawn to the famous "Greenland Express" as MT dubbed it in 2010. A rapid onset of frigid air with gale force winds from Wednesday. Exciting times ahead. All aboard the express train once again.

Oneiric 3

RuthieRose wrote: »

What's the northern midlands looking at here? Namely Cavan/Monaghan & Longford areas? I've gotta be on the road a bit with work this week so need to organise my diary. Don't want to be driving up a back road on Thursday when I could have do it on Tuesday... If you catch my drift. ;()

Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim & Longford can do quite well for showers in stiff WNW flow as shower trains stream in directly from Donegal Bay without much interruption from high ground on the way to weaken them. Under the right circumstances, showers can sometimes survive well into N Leinster from this direction.

mirrorwall14

I'm being induced tomorrow night in dublin. How is this looking for Dublin/kildare? Family will likely be travelling up from Mayo later in the week too?! Not the most confident of drivers either

NMB

right now my evening has been travelling from Roscommon - Mullingar raining heavily reached Dublin and it has hit 9 degrees an bucketing down 20 mins ago and now died.

Kermit.de.frog

An increasing prospect the showers remain as snow right through Thursday daytime and in to Thursday night. Remember beyond Thursday afternoon is still volatile but we are trending colder right now.

As for those dreaming of a northeasterly tint at some stage during this period...ask and you might receive

Graces7

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well the 18 continues the trend.

Wednesday is the day really with widespread heavy snow showers and surely lying snow in many areas by Thursday morning.
Thursday continue with more of the same though ppm is modelled to ease off later.
I would think disruption.....school closures etc look highly likely further West.

Beyond Thursday looks the wrong side of marginal for a couple of days before a reload on Sunday

All in all some fascinating weather lies in store and I for one will be loving it no matter how long or short

Just looked at met and they say Wednesday is rain not snow.... that snow is Thursday.. I am in South Kerry near the coast...on this depends shopping so HIGHLY vital!;)

Graces7

RuthieRose wrote: »

What's the northern midlands looking at here? Namely Cavan/Monaghan & Longford areas? I've gotta be on the road a bit with work this week so need to organise my diary. Don't want to be driving up a back road on Thursday when I could have do it on Tuesday... If you catch my drift. ;()

Same thinking here in Kerry Wise we are!

Graces7

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

I'm being induced tomorrow night in dublin. How is this looking for Dublin/kildare? Family will likely be travelling up from Mayo later in the week too?! Not the most confident of drivers either

Oh good luck! Blessings and prayers!:)

AnotherYear

UKMO-very cold
GFS-Not bad but not as good as Ukmo. Cold spell not as long
GEM-keeps us locked in the cold pattern. Much better than GFS.

Cold air getting in to the NW on Wednesday morning with an increasing risk of snow.

JanuarySnowstor

Ecm is poor this morning with a distinct lack of blocking after Sunday

Wed/Thurs still look snowy

ninebeanrows

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Ecm is poor this morning with a distinct lack of blocking after Sunday

Wed/Thurs still look snowy

Getting a real block this time was always going to be tenuous, still have 3-5 day cold shot.

But real interesting from mid Feb

Rebelbrowser

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Ecm is poor this morning with a distinct lack of blocking after Sunday

Wed/Thurs still look snowy

I suppose we will somehow have to pretend to be excited by the prospect of just the two days of snow.

AnotherYear

Weathercheck wrote: »

Getting a real block this time was always going to be tenuous, still have 3-5 day cold shot.

But real interesting from mid Feb

I wouldn't completely dismiss this upcoming cold spell to 3-5 day period just yet. By Wednesday we will have a better idea. Lots of weather to get through first. If not a 3-5 day cold spell is better than nothing lol

KingdomRushed

Very rinse and repeat on GFS and ECM this morning. Again we see phantom mid term amplification in Atlantic being crushed by a powerful jet as we get nearer the time.

GEM looks more interesting. Would be good for east coast

rickdangerouss

Weathercheck wrote: »

Getting a real block this time was always going to be tenuous, still have 3-5 day cold shot.

But real interesting from mid Feb

For any SSW'ish event or Vortex split, I am waiting to see what happens in the next week to 10 days. Its all FI and up in the air with them two.

Pangea

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I suppose we will somehow have to pretend to be excited by the prospect of just the two days of snow.

Pretend? Speak for yourself.

munsterlegend

MT's forecast this morning is very reserved with no snowmageddon forecast. Met Eireann on the other hand have several cm's of snow forecast and accumulations!

Kermit.de.frog

munsterlegend wrote: »

MT's forecast this morning is very reserved with no snowmageddon forecast. Met Eireann on the other hand have several cm's of snow forecast and accumulations!

The forecast is as in the OP. Nothing has changed. Very high level of confidence.

rickdangerouss

munsterlegend wrote: »

MT's forecast this morning is very reserved with no snowmageddon forecast. Met Eireann on the other hand have several cm's of snow forecast and accumulations!

MT'S is more up to date. Once Met review the latest outputs, that should change \downgrade to a few flakes on hills forecast. (View point from an person in Dublin)