COLD SPELL Jan 28th Onwards: Wintry Showers/Frosty, Some Snow Accumulations

weatherfiend

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z HIRLAM shows showers turning back to rain again in the northwest from 10am Thursday morning. So low level accumulations may be fairly short lived.

Maq are you a fan of Hirlam rather than the other guys? I mean would Hirlam be your "go to" model ahead of the others?

Oneiric 3

Pangea wrote: »

after all this build up, typical.

You could be in with another shot later this coming weekend Pangea, as another bank of cold air moves down from the north once again.

icesnowfrost

lets see if this comes to pass tomorrow.

Oneiric 3

redsteveireland wrote: »

I think it's time to let it go, Tuam is not getting the dream thundersnow you long for. :-D

Have had thundersnow two winters running now, so there. :P

Kermit.de.frog

FWVT wrote: »

This is the comparison of the Hirlam and Euro4 for 00Z Thursday. Bear in mind that the Euro4 total is for 3 hours while the Hirlam is only 1 hour, however it does show that the Hirlam is more of a wintry mix than full-on snow (orange = sleet, green = rain).

Perhaps there is a bit too much modification for Atlantic counties at low levels but it was always marginal for coastal counties. The southwest has the biggest burden of marginality where they may well be the wrong side. The midlands, east and north should be ok assuming we get sufficient precipitation and most of the country is on the right side in the early hours of Thursday. It's a case now of just seeing what happens. There is no more forecasting to be done. We'll find out tomorrow.

If there is to be disappointment that is just the way the cookie crumbles sometimes.

doccy

Here's a nice time lapse gif for Boston today.

Oneiric 3

Gerry Murphy just on RTE 1. Showers widespread & turning increasingly to snow tomorrow night.

JCX BXC

After watching the Weather on Six One news, I am now excited. Looks like I may get some sneachta oder Schnee!

Oops69

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Gerry Murphy just on RTE 1. Showers widespread & turning increasingly to snow tomorrow night.

Did he really say 'snow' ?, he usually just about manages to say 'wintery showers' mostly

Oneiric 3

Oops69 wrote: »

Did he really say 'snow' ?, he usually just about manages to say 'wintery showers' mostly

Yep, and he did not even allude to high ground.

Oops69

Carnacalla wrote: »

After watching the Weather on Six One news, I am now excited. Looks like I may get some sneachta oder Schnee!

As long as it's not schleety schyte , I don't care what language it speaks .

Brianmeath

Oops69 wrote: »

Did he really say 'snow' ?, he usually just about manages to say 'wintery showers' mostly

Gerry no crack Murphy said raiiiiiiiiiiiiSNOW

ElizaT33

Still 6+ degrees here in North Meath - yesterday of last week I got up in the morning to - (minus) -6.5 degrees!!

It's warm tonight(!) in comparison to that!

Really hoping for some snow!

Loving 'Graces7' posts - sounds like an idyllic place and way to live:)!

Chris_5339762

It'll be warm until early tomorrow morning then within the space of not more than a couple of hours, it'll drop by 10º.

Villain

The NMM4 shows showers mainly as sleet south of Meath but even high res charts struggle to define the difference.

howlinwolf

it seems increasingly like a borderline event for most parts tomorrow, will it be sleet or snow, will the showers make it across the country, at least for the northwest its looking good and anybody up at a decent height. not expecting too much in this part of the world but you never know:D
maybe we will have the opposite to what new york had, they hyped it up as the storm of all storms and it didnt quite work out like that ( at least for new york anyway) if we play it down we might end up with a blizzard;)

Joe Doe

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

....within the space of not more than a couple of hours, it'll drop by 10º.

This is what happened at the start or the movies 'Sharknado' and possibly also '2012'. Hold on to the hats...

Villain

A forecast I did for my Carlow Weather followers on Facebook:

Weather warnings in operation for Snow-Ice and Wind!

A difficult forecast tonight with the difference between snow and sleet very difficult to call. What I can say for certain is that it is going to turn cold tomorrow and at present I expect that cold to last up to at least Monday.

Tonight will see temps of about 5c with some light rain which will clear early tomorrow morning and once that rain clears temps will drop very quickly down to 2c or 3c by 11am and showers of sleet will spread from the NW carried in strong winds with gusts up to 80kmh making it feel really bitter in a very harsh wind chill.

Trying to call where these showers will fall and whether they will be of sleet or snow is difficult, based on current data it looks likely they will be mainly of sleet during the day at lower levels but may fall as snow and begin to stick later in the evening.

The showers of sleet and snow will become more widespread later tomorrow evening and over night Wednesday night in strong gusts with the highest risk of snow at lower levels during this period.

All areas are at risk of waking to snow and icy patches on Thursday morning with a high risk of dangerous driving conditions.

Thursday then will continue to see showers during the morning but they will turn to sleet and then rain during the afternoon before once again turning to sleet and snow in the evening before dying out.

From Thursday night onwards it will remain cold but mainly dry with temps only getting up to about 4c by day and down to -4c at night, the wind chill make it feel much colder at times in strong winds.

We will have an update tomorrow evening with the latest details, please don't ask if one particular area will see snow it is not possible to forecast that accurately in these setups, the above forecast is for Carlow and surrounding areas.

Northern Chaser

Im pretty sure this calls for level two alert in NI!

Larbre34

Joe Doe wrote: »

This is what happened at the start or the movies 'Sharknado' and possibly also '2012'. Hold on to the hats...

The Day after tomorrow....

Oneiric 3

ECM Prep forecast for tomorrow night (post midnight) (yellows & whites indicate sleet or snow) Areas with no precipitation may be somewhat misleading as this model does not have the higher resolution of the likes of Euro4 or the HIRLAM Suite.

FWVT

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECM Prep forecast for tomorrow night (post midnight) (yellows & whites indicate sleet or snow) Areas with no precipitation may be somewhat misleading as this model does not have the higher resolution of the likes of Euro4 or the HIRLAM Suite.

ECM hi-res 3-hr precip up to 3 am Thursday.

typhoony

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

It'll be warm until early tomorrow morning then within the space of not more than a couple of hours, it'll drop by 10º.

it's around 8c generally so a 10c drop would bring it to -2c

Oneiric 3

FWVT wrote: »

ECM hi-res 3-hr precip up to midnight tomorrow night.

DMI 18z for Thurs 03z:



Some potentially nasty showers for likes of Donegal, Derry, Sligo and that general area.

maquiladora

I said it before and I'll say it again : Donegal is the place to be tomorrow! Especially on high ground. Heavy snow showers + windy conditions : loads of fun.

JanuarySnowstor

maquiladora wrote: »

I said it before and I'll say it again : Donegal is the place to be tomorrow! Especially on high ground. Heavy snow showers + windy conditions : loads of fun.

In all fairness maq widespread showers are forecast. We all know Donegal is the prime spot but the whole country will get a fair share

irish1967

So when should I start my lamp post watching here in Donegal Town.

JCX BXC

irish1967 wrote: »

So when should I start my lamp post watching here in Donegal Town.

Now. Straight away. Don't look away until you see snow.

BLIZZARD7

irish1967 wrote: »

So when should I start my lamp post watching here in Donegal Town.

Early tomorrow morning onwards I would think but I would get some sleep, you will have enough snow watching to do in the next few days!

Harps

maquiladora wrote: »

I said it before and I'll say it again : Donegal is the place to be tomorrow! Especially on high ground. Heavy snow showers + windy conditions : loads of fun.

Don't remind me 10C and rain forecast for here in SE England tomorrow!

Another different view on the 2km WRF which shows plenty of lying snow in the rest of Ulster but high ground only in Donegal up to midnight tomorrow. Not sure how reliable this model is though