Sinn Féin the most popular party in latest poll (mod warnings in OP)

PhilipJ

That is a scary analysis and quite right too I think personally.

DazMarz wrote: »

As the Irish Water debacle and every other thing drags on further, I am becoming more and more disillusioned with Fine Gael.

I was never a Fine Gael voter. I never liked them. I never voted for them. But... Until relatively recently, I thought Fine Gael were doing a pretty OK job in running the show, given the shíte hand they were dealt in 2011... cleaning up Fianna Fáil's mess. But then... between Garda whistleblowers, Shattergate, McAnulty, Irish Water, etc. etc. ETC... I'm not so sure.

The biggest one is Irish Water. If Fine Gael and Co. wanted to start a revolution, I don't think they could have done a better job. The country is like a powder keg at the moment. The government could collapse and a General Election could be called within the next few months, never mind in March 2016.

It is also worth remembering this: Enda Kenny would sell his wife, daughter, mother and grandmother up the river in a heartbeat to secure a second term in power for Fine Gael. It has never been done before, and would the bould Enda ever love to go down in the history books as the first Fine Gael Taoiseach to win back-to-back elections. So, you can be damn sure that in order to do so, Kenny will do anything and everything to try and curry the voters' favour in between now and the next GE.

And... final thought. Right now, austerity measures are bad, no doubt. But Enda Kenny is looking into a General Election in about 18 months' time. He cannot go overboard with the austerity, or risk losing power, like has happened to Fine Gael so many times in the past. But... if Kenny is still Taoiseach after the 2016(?) General Election... Austerity? You ain't seen nothing yet! He'll rip into the Irish populace with more austerity, because why worry? No more elections for a while, let's grease em up and fúck em!

I'm actually more scared now of Enda getting back in than I am of Sinn Féin getting in. And that is saying something. :eek:

twowheelsgood

My name is URL wrote: »

Why do you say that? I'd wager that they'd jump into bed with each other before SF

And hopefully they do. No better way to decimate a junior party.

It simply isn't a runner, not for any good reasons mind.

FF would prefer SF to FG. As indeed would FG. SF don't want to dance at all with anyone IMO.

It will be Martin's last (only) chance at Taoiseach so he might be keener than most in his party to go with FG (plus they would hate to be out for two terms) but I still think it won't happen.

And I don't think FF are for decimating. If they survived 2008-2011 (and prospered!) I don't think they can be killed.

dave ireland

FF are very quit these days,,,

Sierra Oscar

dave ireland wrote: »

FF are very quit these days,,,

Playing the long game, looking forward to the SF / FG government.

poteen o hooley wrote: »

Finny Gale are DOOMED DOOMED DOOMED!!!

Only a matter of time before gov collapses.

I still can't really see the government collapsing given the huge majority that they have. Why would they call an election now, surely they are better off holding out and allowing the economy recover? Although the coalition must be very worried that the last budget has not satisfied the public. If they had handled the Irish Water crisis properly then things could be very different now.

The only way I can see the government collapsing is if Labour call an end to Irish Water which would cause a snap election in the hope that they will get a bounce in support. Risky strategy through considering there was no bounce following the budget.

sid waddell

alastair wrote: »

Even if SF became the largest party in the Dail, they still need to find enough coalition partners to garner 79 seats. They don't have that, whereas FG, or, less likely, FF do.

A FG/FF coalition would likely result in a situation where FG and FF then don't have enough seats to form another coalition between them at the election after next.

It would damage FG, but FF stand to lose the most from that as they are more vulnerable to Sinn Fein taking their traditional vote.

FF will do everything in their power to avoid going in as a junior partner to FG. You cannot underestimate the weight of tradition and historical force that permeates the mindsets of the membership of FF. Going into government as the junior partner to FG would be the ultimate humiliation for them.

Your assertion that Sinn Fein would find it difficult to find coalition partners is in my view naive and wishful thinking.

alastair

maccored wrote: »

are we talking about financial aspects that the parties in the north have no control over again, or can you please supply an example?

The government in NI have control over aspects of the economy and spending, and it's not been pretty.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-29562432

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ni-executive-set-to-bust-budget-over-282m-cuts-requirement-1.1949233

http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/regional/executive-s-fiscal-dishonesty-coming-home-to-roost-agnew-1-6392227

Dan_Solo

DazMarz wrote: »

A lot of people will vote Independent at the next GE. It will be a very good year for Indo's.

True. I'd prefer more independents too.

Dan_Solo

alastair wrote: »

The government in NI have control over aspects of the economy and spending, and it's not been pretty.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ni-executive-set-to-bust-budget-over-282m-cuts-requirement-1.1949233

http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/regional/executive-s-fiscal-dishonesty-coming-home-to-roost-agnew-1-6392227

"Aspects"? You're fooling nobody with you legalese word selection there alastair. They're not in sole power. End of.

alastair

guinnessdrinker wrote: »

The way the polls are going currently, a FF/FG coalition will not secure enough seats to from a government.

That's neither true, or required, to ensure SF wouldn't form a part of the next coalition.

dave ireland

I wonder what would it be like with no FF or FG in power at all, They have been there since 1922 in some shape or form,

The brown envelope factory will close down for a start "LOL"

Phoebas

guinnessdrinker wrote: »

The way the polls are going currently, a FF/FG coalition will not secure enough seats to from a government.

There are some dangers in trying to translate poll findings into election results.
1. We are a long way out from the election and things can change drastically between then and now - in any direction.
2. Polls ask about first preferences (at least this poll does) and transfers play a big part in elections.
3. Poll results can be skewed for parties who don't have strong presence across all constituencies (LAB, SF to a lesser extent and the minor parties) because no matter what the poll says, if you aren't running a credible candidate, you can't win.
4. Polls that show a very strong showing for INDs can be skewed for reason 2 and 3.

alastair

Dan_Solo wrote: »

"Aspects"? You're fooling nobody with you legalese word selection there alastair. They're not in sole power. End of.

They wouldn't be in sole power here either - so what's their record in NI? It's as articulated by those links. They had to go cap in hand back to Westminster because they couldn't keep within budget. The record of financial mismanagement in government services in NI makes us look good!

Silentcorner

dave ireland wrote: »

FF are very quit these days,,,

The first thing FF did in opposition was enforce a ban on corporate funding.

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/ireland/News/Irish_News/article621699.ece

In doing so ensuring that no new political movement could gather the massive finances it takes to erect a nationwide organisation, I am very surprised at how this change in legislation is seldom if ever mentioned by the established media.

We have a very clear message from all 4 corners of this republic that the electorate is looking for alternatives, but the only alternative to establish themselves is SF, possibly the most cash rich political party in the state.

FF know, that all they have to do is keep a fairly low profile, in the knowledge that they have made it extremely difficult for a new political movement to emerge.

FF threw the Irish people to the wolves and locked the gate behind them.

alastair

Phoebas wrote: »

There are some dangers in trying to translate poll findings into election results.
1. We are a long way out from the election and things can change drastically between then and now - in any direction.
2. Polls ask about first preferences (at least this poll does) and transfers play a big part in elections.
3. Poll results can be skewed for parties who don't have strong presence across all constituencies (LAB, SF to a lesser extent and the minor parties) because no matter what the poll says, if you aren't running a credible candidate, you can't win.
4. Polls that show a very strong showing for INDs can be skewed for reason 2 and 3.

And even if you assumed the poll results did equate to a general election result, a FG/FF coalition would provide a majority, without a third coalition partner (just about).

Sierra Oscar

dave ireland wrote: »

I wonder what would it be like with no FF or FG in power at all, They have been there since 1922 in some shape or form,

The brown envelope factory will close down for a start "LOL"

It will be fascinating. Those that are voting for SF and certain independents will be hoping for radical change. I am not too sure if they will be able to deliver on the radical change that some of their supporters expect. FG & Labour don't seem to have been able to deliver the change that many people had hoped for.

I do think that both FG & Labour had good intentions when entering government. However they could not deliver on the high expectations that people had, and they only have themselves to blame considering they promised things that they knew they could not deliver on during GE11. Sinn Féin are also promising stuff that they know they just simply cannot deliver on in government. The 75% of the electorate that do not support them will be expecting them to compromise in government, while their core supporters will expect really radical change should they enter government. It could end up being quite explosive.

Fascinating times ahead in Irish politics as our party system goes through its first major change since the Civil War. Lets just hope we don't have to endure a second one.

Scofflaw

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It will be fascinating. Those that are voting for SF and certain independents will be hoping for radical change. I am not too sure if they will be able to deliver on the radical change that some of their supporters expect. FG & Labour don't seem to have been able to deliver the change that many people had hoped for.

I do think that both FG & Labour had good intentions when entering government. However they could not deliver on the high expectations that people had, and they only have themselves to blame considering they promised things that they knew they could not deliver on during GE11. Sinn Féin are also promising stuff that they know they just simply cannot deliver on in government. The 75% of the electorate that do not support them will be expecting them to compromise in government, while their core supporters will expect really radical change should they enter government. It could end up being quite explosive.

Fascinating times ahead in Irish politics as our party system goes through its first major change since the Civil War. Lets just hope we don't have to endure a second one.

People do act as if Ministers simply wave wands and the desired things happen, and it doesn't work that way. And any party that gets into government under the existing system by definition has an interest in the continuance of that system

However, I would say that of all the parties SF are the most likely not to use the existing apparatus of eighteenth century government Ireland has retained.

cordially,
Scofflaw

alastair

Scofflaw wrote: »

However, I would say that of all the parties SF are the most likely not to use the existing apparatus of eighteenth century government Ireland has retained.

Which aspects are you referring to?

Yarf Yarf

As sorry as I feel for Maria Cahill, the attempts to politicize her case and use her as a political pawn were painfully transparent and I'm glad it is seemingly backfiring. I think most people are just sick of hearing the same ****e about cases that happened years and years ago and, frankly, don't really have any bearing on the day to day lives of people in the Republic today. I feel for Maria Cahill, but this whole circus has been a feeble attempt at diverting attention away from relevant issues of the here and now and it should be exposed for what it is.

dave ireland

Yarf Yarf wrote: »

As sorry as I feel for Maria Cahill, the attempts to politicize her case and use her as a political pawn were painfully transparent and I'm glad it is seemingly backfiring. I think most people are just sick of hearing the same ****e about cases that happened years and years ago and, frankly, don't really have any bearing on the day to day lives of people in the Republic today. I feel for Maria Cahill, but this whole circus has been a feeble attempt at diverting attention away from relevant issues of the here and now and it should be exposed for what it is.

Yes I thought the same but giving the nature of the subject was unwilling to mention it,,

twowheelsgood

Yarf Yarf wrote: »

As sorry as I feel for Maria Cahill, the attempts to politicize her case and use her as a political pawn were painfully transparent and I'm glad it is seemingly backfiring.

That attributes a fairly noble interpretation to those sampled in this poll. And what you say may be the case. (I’m not sure if it has been noted on thread but Adams personal satisfaction is down quite a bit, suggesting the Cahill story is having an impact on him rather than on SF)

A less benign interpretation might be found by looking at the likes of Lowry and some FF types who it would seem, by accident or design to have reached a state where criticisms from outside only serve to galvanize rather than alienate their support.

I genuinely do not think any criticisms levelled at Adams, valid or not, will have an impact. He seems to have acquired Bertie’s Teflon coating of 15 years ago.

ChicagoJoe

eigrod wrote: »

I suspect that SF doing well will hurt FF and Labour much more than it will FG.

alastair wrote: »

That's neither true, or required, to ensure SF wouldn't form a part of the next coalition.

SF on 26% are only 3% behind FG and Labour :eek:

alastair

ChicagoJoe wrote: »

SF on 26% are only 3% behind FG and Labour :eek:

And what part of that suggests SF will form part of the next coalition?

ChicagoJoe

alastair wrote: »

They wouldn't be in sole power here either - so what's their record in NI? It's as articulated by those links. They had to go cap in hand back to Westminster because they couldn't keep within budget. The record of financial mismanagement in government services in NI makes us look good!

SF received the biggest vote in the six counties at the Euros 25.5% and locals 24%. They may well be the largest party in the north after the Assembly elections next year. Not bad for a party that you in some very strange way seem to think is doing badly

alastair wrote: »

And what part of that suggests SF will form part of the next coalition?

Don't think SF want to be part of a coalition govt down here unless it's them leading a left coalition. SF will play the waiting game and let the political parties that have dominated the RoI fall on their face. Then at last we will have proper opposition politics of left and right.

alastair

ChicagoJoe wrote: »

SF received the biggest vote at the Euros 25.5% and locals 24%. They may well be the largest party in the north after the Assembly elections next year. Not bad for a party that you in some very strange way seem to think is doing badly

Their electoral success has very little to do with their record in managing the NI economy, which we can judge on outcomes.

alastair

ChicagoJoe wrote: »

Don't think SF want to be part of a coalition govt down here unless it's them leading a left coalition. SF will play the waiting game and let the political parties that have dominated the RoI fall on their face. Then at last we will have proper opposition politics of left and right.

SF are about as socialist as Bertie was! And I don't buy their aversion to being a junior in coalition, given the choices they've made in NI.

guinnessdrinker

FG and Labour secured 56% of the vote at the last general election. Today's poll shows that if FG and FF were to attempt to from a government it would be extremely difficult for them on their current combined total of 42%

I know things can change between now and the next election but if the current trend continues which seems very likely now it doesn't bode well for any of the "traditional parties".

ChicagoJoe

alastair wrote: »

SF are about as socialist as Bertie was! And I don't buy their aversion to being a junior in coalition, given the choices they've made in NI.

The Assembly is a mandatory coalition - as you know very well. Unionists like yourself must be eating your heart out today !!! The Sindo, RTE etc have two weekends wall to wall coverage of Gerry and the IRA and Mairia Cahill, and Sinn Fein top their poll. Hilarious. Looks like the people recognize a cock and bull diversion when they see it.

alastair

guinnessdrinker wrote: »

FG and Labour secured 56% of the vote at the last general election. Today's poll shows that if FG and FF were to attempt to from a government it would be extremely difficult for them on their current combined total of 42%

I know things can change between now and the next election but if the current trend continues which seems very likely now it doesn't bode well for any of the "traditional parties".

Labour were polling as the largest party in 2010 - on 32%. That didn't really work out either in 2011. Let's see what an actual general election brings.

alastair

ChicagoJoe wrote: »

The Assembly is a mandatory coalition - as you know very well. Unionists like yourself must be eating your heart out today !!! The Sindo, RTE etc have two weekends wall to wall coverage of Gerry and the IRA and Mairia Cahill, and Sinn Fein top their poll. Hilarious. Looks like the people recognize a cock and bull diversion when they see it.

SF are firm supporters of the mandatory coalition mechanism however, so it's rather disengenous to suggest that they're being coerced into a junior role in coalition. Oh, and I'm not actually a unionist, but your attempt to paint me as a bogieman is noted.

sid waddell

alastair wrote: »

SF are firm supporters of the mandatory coalition mechanism however, so it's rather disengenous to suggest that they're being coerced into a junior role in coalition. Oh, and I'm not actually a unionist, but your attempt to paint me as a bogieman is noted.

Your constant attempts to paint Sinn Fein as a bogeyman are noted.