Sinn Féin the most popular party in latest poll (mod warnings in OP)

sid waddell

rozeboosje wrote: »

Sadly, I'm not surprised. One major political party completely flurked up this country when they were in power. Then the other one took over, bulldozed its junior coalition partner into an untenable position as all too often happens in coalitions such as these, and then proceeded to rape the people who were already suffering over and over and over again in order to balance the books. All of this plays perfectly into the agenda of populist scumbags, just like it always has. I dare say the outcome will also be only too predictable.

Yes, because of course Fine Gael and Labour weren't a bit populist before the last election. And Fianna Fail never did populism, never.;)

The nature of democratic politics is that it is populist.

"Scumbags". Great, insightful contribution there.

twowheelsgood

Dan_Solo wrote: »

Interesting economic recovery where everybody has less and less money every year.

Er, yeah. That's to be be expected when we found ourselves with an eye-watering deficit of €20b.

Do you know of a plan to close a deficit where does not leave people with less money?

alastair

K-9 wrote: »

Well yes, the 2 and a half party system is gone, that's for sure, but there has been no major change yet from the elections, the polls are too unpredictable.

SF were doing poorly in the polls a few months back, now doing well. I don't see what the reason is for either tbh, the 2 opposition parties have been poor for me and it's more disillusionment from Labour voters and even a few FG that's causing the unpredictability.

SF were doing poorly in actual elections two weeks ago. So I'll wait and see what a general election brings, but unless there's a greater shift than this poll suggests, we still won't be seeing SF in government after that election. Improving economic matters will not do SF any favours in the mid term.

catallus

God, so much noise over a flash-in-the-pan opinion poll. Worse than the football pundits.

Banjo String

alastair wrote: »

SF were doing poorly in actual elections two weeks ago. So I'll wait and see what a general election brings, but unless there's a greater shift than this poll suggests, we still won't be seeing SF in government after that election. Improving economic matters will not do SF any favours in the mid term.

By getting the most first preference votes?

alastair

Banjo String wrote: »

By getting the most first preference votes?

By not winning a seat that they were expected to get. Not much point in first preferences if you lose on transfers.

sid waddell

Obviously this poll makes good reading for Sinn Fein. But the reality of the constituency system and its focus on local matters and the importance of grass roots organisation (in which Sinn Fein still lags behind FG anf FF) means that the likelihood is that SF will only be the third biggest party come 2016.

The way I see it playing out is that Fine Gael will drop to somewhere in the 50s in terms of seats. I find it hard to see Fianna Fail not having enough of a core vote to pick up an average of roughly one seat per constituency, which will mean they end up on around 40 seats. Sinn Fein I imagine will have something in the high 30s but a comparative lack (as yet) of grass roots organsation in rural constituencies will probably hold them back in the same way that Labour hit a ceiling.

FG/Labour will very likely not have enough seats after the next election to form a government. I wouldn't rule out any coalition combination happening, but the outcome is likely to be uncharted territory either way in that it will likely lead to either Sinn Fein as part of a government or a FG/FF coalition.

Sinn Fein will have a choice similar to that faced by Labour in 2011. Stay out of government and effectively force Fianna Fail to go in with Fine Gael or go in as a junior partner after which they will likely lose support significantly. Labour chose to go in and have destroyed themselves as an electoral force for the forseeable future. If Sinn Fein stay out of government and force FF in as junior partners there is a possibility they can destroy FF as a signficant electoral force for good and position themselves to lead a government in 2021.

A Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein coalition is a possibility. The really interesting outcome will be if SF get more seats than FF.

dave ireland

alastair wrote: »

SF were doing poorly in actual elections two weeks ago. So I'll wait and see what a general election brings, but unless there's a greater shift than this poll suggests, we still won't be seeing SF in government after that election. Improving economic matters will not do SF any favours in the mid term.

I was on the water march yesterday (first time ever to go on a protest) believe me don't mind the polls SF are in next time, The water bills and court cases start rolling all through next year nice and fresh in peoples mind on election year 2016

alastair

dave ireland wrote: »

I was on the water march yesterday (first time ever to go on a protest) believe me don't mind the polls SF are in next time, The water bills and court cases start rolling all through next year nice and fresh in peoples mind on election year 2016

SF are in at the moment, but their being in, after the next election, doesn't mean that they'll be in government. Doubt that those who went on the protests automatically support SF either.

rozeboosje

sid waddell wrote: »

Yes, because of course Fine Gael and Labour weren't a bit populist before the last election. And Fianna Fail never did populism, never.;)

The nature of democratic politics is that it is populist.

"Scumbags". Great, insightful contribution there.

Oh, don't get me started on the quality of Irish politicians. But there is a difference between the shameless opportunism of parties such as FF, FG and yes, even Labour, and the populism that a party like SF likes to run with. Still, at least you guys don't have someone like Geert Wilders to contend with.

[shudder]

catallus

rozeboosje wrote: »

Oh,... Still, at least you guys don't have someone like Geert Wilders to contend with.

[shudder]

That guy has got some serious hair.:D

sid waddell

alastair wrote: »

SF are in at the moment, but their being in, after the next election, doesn't mean that they'll be in government. Doubt that those who went on the protests automatically support SF either.

If Sinn Fein are not in government after the next election, that will likely mean a FG/FF coalition, and Sinn Fein's support will continue to grow, meaning they will likely be in a position to become the largest party and lead a government at the election after next.

A FG/FF coalition in 2016 would likely be abolutely toxic electorally to both parties and result in both of them suffering heavily electoral losses at the following election.

DazMarz

Godge wrote: »

Today's poll shows that a potential SF/FF coalition would have 46% of the vote. Given the fractured nature of the independent vote, that would be enough to gain them an overall majority should they agree a transfer pact.

Cuiv would do a deal with them, even if Martin wouldn't.

maccored wrote: »

I cant see that happening, but the day it does is the day I stop voting SF.

And this is the biggest problem that would face Sinn Féin, in my opinion.

Sinn Féin supporters absolutely despise Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil/Labour. Entering into government with any of them would be seen as the ultimate slap in the face from the party to its supporters. They would rapidly see themselves becoming vilified, especially if it was as a minor coalition partner.

Give it 7 years or so, and Sinn Féin (if things remain on the same trajectory) will have a real, fighting chance of being a huge player in running the show.

But, as they say, a week is a long time in politics. The time to the next General Election, therefore, is an eternity. The GE after the next one is positively a lifetime. Who knows what the hell will happen between hither and yon.

I still maintain that Sinn Féin's transfer toxicity will hurt them more than anything else. In my own county, they did very well at the local elections, garnering a huge percentage of the first preferences. But in terms of seats, they came in 4th behind Independents, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

You can be damn sure that Dublin will be a major area of support for Sinn Féin. But Fianna Fáil, despite the polls, will also gain significant seats.

I still think that the next general election will result in something like this, in terms of seats won (and this doesn't take into account any new parties, however).

FG: 50-55 seats
FF: 30-35 seats
SF: 20-25 seats
Lab: 10-15 seats
Oth/Ind: 20-30 seats

However, that could be totally off. It still stands that the bookies' favourite is an FF/FG coalition. And I've yet to see a bookie on a bicycle. Them lads are never far wrong.

rockatansky

alastair wrote: »

SF are in at the moment, but their being in, after the next election, doesn't mean that they'll be in government. Doubt that those who went on the protests automatically support SF either.

No doubt about it, they don't.

twowheelsgood

sid waddell wrote: »

A FG/FF coalition in 2016 would likely be abolutely toxic electorally to both parties and result in both of them suffering heavily electoral losses at the following election.

Even though a FF/FG coalition is a better fit than almost any other (ignoring FF recent past) it is the least likely to happen.

rockatansky

Good to see a decent debate for once on Sinn Fein, hope it doesn't descend into the usual mad house.

Dan_Solo

rockatansky wrote: »

No doubt about it, they don't.

Although they would need to be a bit schizo to go on the water marches and be planning on voting FG/LB next time out.

DazMarz

alastair wrote: »

SF are in at the moment, but their being in, after the next election, doesn't mean that they'll be in government. Doubt that those who went on the protests automatically support SF either.

This. The "United Left" of Ireland is anything but. The biggest case in point of this will be the constituency of Dun Laoghaire. Last General Election, Richard Boyd Barrett and Sinn Féin struck a deal; SF would not run a candidate in Dun Laoghaire to open the door for RBB, and it worked as he scraped in ahead of Mary Hanafin.

However... this time out, seeing as how well SF polled in the Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown local elections, you can be sure they'll tell RBB to stick his deal up his arse. This will split the left-wing vote, and could easily see RBB lose his seat and, shudder, open the door for Gilmore to scrape in. I would have no love for RBB, but I openly despise that poisonous, pompous dwarf Gilmore and I'd love to see his face when the returning officer announces:

"We will now eliminate the next candidate with the lowest amount of votes and distribute their transfers. That is Eamon Gilmore. Thank you."

sid waddell wrote: »

If Sinn Fein are not in government after the next election, that will likely mean a FG/FF coalition, and Sinn Fein's support will continue to grow, meaning they will likely be in a position to become the largest party and lead a government at the election after next.

A FG/FF coalition in 2016 would likely be abolutely toxic electorally to both parties and result in both of them suffering heavily electoral losses at the following election.

I wonder... see, if the economy continues to recover, if employment continues to rise, if if if if if... If a lot of things happen and if the country starts to get back to some semblance of normality. If the government actually treats the public like human beings and so on... it's a hard one to call.

I also said earlier that austerity could become far worse if Enda (or just FG basically) got in again. While that could very easily happen, if it is only ramped up for the first two years of the next term, and then for the last years of the term it is scaled back... who knows.

It is a tough one to predict, due to chaos theory, in that anything could happen in the next few years. Hell, some farmer out Wesht could strike oil and we'll become an oil rich nation and it'll be all rosy until the United States Marine Corps arrive to topple our Dear Leader and lead to armed rebellion across the country.

Or Mother Russia could nuke Western Europe. Or the North Koreans could start a war with China. Or Enda Kenny could grow a brain.

Who knows what the future holds?!

DazMarz

Dan_Solo wrote: »

Although they would need to be a bit schizo to go on the water marches and be planning on voting FG/LB next time out.

A lot of people will vote Independent at the next GE. It will be a very good year for Indo's.

My name is URL

twowheelsgood wrote: »

Even though a FF/FG coalition is a better fit than almost any other (ignoring FF recent past) it is the least likely to happen.

Why do you say that? I'd wager that they'd jump into bed with each other before SF

And hopefully they do. No better way to decimate a junior party.

sid waddell

rozeboosje wrote: »

Oh, don't get me started on the quality of Irish politicians. But there is a difference between the shameless opportunism of parties such as FF, FG and yes, even Labour, and the populism that a party like SF likes to run with. Still, at least you guys don't have someone like Geert Wilders to contend with.

[shudder]

Fine Gael, the party who were going to burn the bondholders and fix the health system.

Labour, who told us that it would be their way or Frankfurt's way.

Fianna Fail, who signed the IMF deal under which Irish Water was set up and water charges were brought in, and who now claim they're against it.

I really don't see much difference, except that the populism of FG. FF and Labour has already been proven to be a sham whereas Sinn Fein's hasn't.

Disillusionment with establishment political parties is at an all-time high everywhere in Europe. As I've already said, every attack from Fine Gael and Enda Kenny and the Denis 'Brien media only strengthens Sinn Fein.

rockatansky

Dan_Solo wrote: »

Although they would need to be a bit schizo to go on the water marches and be planning on voting FG/LB next time out.

You'd be surprised. 20% of the electorate would like to see Fianna Fail back in power, what does that tell you!

michael999999

rockatansky wrote: »

You'd be surprised. 20% of the electorate would like to see Fianna Fail back in power, what does that tell you!

The building trade is picking up and they need planning permission?

Scofflaw

DazMarz wrote: »

A lot of people will vote Independent at the next GE. It will be a very good year for Indo's.

If not so much for the Indo's, particularly the Sunday one.

cordially,
Scofflaw

DazMarz

Scofflaw wrote: »

If not so much for the Indo's, particularly the Sunday one.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Wheh wheh wheh...

alastair

sid waddell wrote: »

If Sinn Fein are not in government after the next election, that will likely mean a FG/FF coalition, and Sinn Fein's support will continue to grow, meaning they will likely be in a position to become the largest party and lead a government at the election after next.

A FG/FF coalition in 2016 would likely be abolutely toxic electorally to both parties and result in both of them suffering heavily electoral losses at the following election.

Even if SF became the largest party in the Dail, they still need to find enough coalition partners to garner 79 seats. They don't have that, whereas FG, or, less likely, FF do.

sid waddell

Dan_Solo wrote: »

Although they would need to be a bit schizo to go on the water marches and be planning on voting FG/LB next time out.

I remember a feature on PrimeTime before the 2011 election, they were interviewing people in Leitrim. One woman in her 20s talked at length about the need for change, change was her big buzzword and she mentioned it several times. When asked how she'd vote, she said "I'll probably be crucified for this but....I'm going to vote Fianna Fail". Plenty of these type of people exist.

alastair

sid waddell wrote: »

I really don't see much difference, except that the populism of FG. FF and Labour has already been proven to be a sham whereas Sinn Fein hadn't.

Except in their record of governance in NI, where they have.

maccored

are we talking about financial aspects that the parties in the north have no control over again, or can you please supply an example?

alastair wrote: »

Except in their record of governance in NI, where they have.

guinnessdrinker

alastair wrote: »

Even if SF became the largest party in the Dail, they still need to find enough coalition partners to garner 79 seats. They don't have that, whereas FG, or, less likely, FF do.

The way the polls are going currently, a FF/FG coalition will not secure enough seats to from a government.