Sinn Féin the most popular party in latest poll (mod warnings in OP)

Scofflaw

This thread is not to become a reprise of the "level in the polls" thread. That means it does not become another Mairia Cahill thread (or another McConville thread) - and that means I'm looking at alastair specifically.

We all know what issues might have impacted support for SF in recent weeks, and their truth or falsity is not to be thrashed out yet again here. Please report posts that will drag the thread into such a discussion.

Strictly, with respect to the Cahill affair, those who refuse to accept the validity of an IRA court must use the phrase "alleged rapist", because from your perspective he has not been tried in a court of law, while those who accept the validity of IRA courts should use the phrase "rapist", because from your perspective he has.

Less humorously, everybody should use the phrase "alleged" because the law of the land - which we go by - doesn't accept the validity of an IRA court.

Dan_Solo, your contributions better be substantive.

Failure to follow this warning will lead to summary banning.

moderately,
Scofflaw

Rightwing

sonofenoch wrote: »

Gerry Adams will head an Irish government in his lifetime.....it's his destiny

That chap is a serious liability.

Doherty from Donegal should be the leader, but SF are probably being loyal to Adams.

poteen o hooley

Inda Inda Inda

OUT!!! OUT!!! OUT!!!

CZ 453

Still can't see Sinn Fein getting into Government. FF and FG have more in common and are more likely to go in together with another party before touching Sinn Fein.
Massive Sweeteners in the next budget I'd say.

dave ireland

I honestly do not care who is in charge of Sinn Fein , this water charge thing has opened my eyes and I want a change in politics, and a change is what I see in Sinn Fein. Martin Cahill or John Gilligan has more respect for peoples property than Enda Kenny has.

um7y1h83ge06nx

By the looks of things SF are going to walk the next election. Bertie was the Teflon Taoiseach, SF are the Teflon party.

You nearly need to read the history books to find a party that rose so quickly in such a short space of time.

Not sure whether to admire their savvy or be scared.

K-9

Gilmore got a bit carried away about this time from the last GE, Gilmore for Taoiseach and all that, polls are only snapshots and incomprehensible sometimes, FF were doing well a year ago! People have the budget in their heads but as shown by Shatter, it often takes time for the electorate to get the full implications of something.

All I know from polls is they are all a bit all over the place.

sid waddell

Del.Monte wrote: »

You're kidding right? The day this bunch of fascists and their fellow travellers get into power there's going to be an exodus from this country.

Fine Gael are already in power and they know all about fascism.

Rightwing

K-9 wrote: »

Gilmore got a bit carried away about this time from the last GE, Gilmore for Taoiseach and all that, polls are only snapshots and incomprehensible sometimes, FF were doing well a year ago! People have the budget in their heads but as shown by Shatter, it often takes time for the electorate to get the full implications of something.

All I know from polls is they are all a bit all over the place.

I'm not sure, give or take a few % points, it seems like a trend has developed.

Dyr

People are ignoring the fact that the independents/ an others are the second biggest grouping behind sinn fein. The big three parties that the media and business interests revolve around are losing their hegemony.

That's a fairly significant shift. Not only is there space for sinn fein to become a major player, there's also room for another new party to expolit.

Dan_Solo

Rightwing wrote: »

That chap is a serious liability.

Doherty from Donegal should be the leader, but SF are probably being loyal to Adams.

The most popular leader in Ireland's most popular political party... some liability!

Godge

Today's poll shows that a potential SF/FF coalition would have 46% of the vote. Given the fractured nature of the independent vote, that would be enough to gain them an overall majority should they agree a transfer pact.

Cuiv would do a deal with them, even if Martin wouldn't.

Sierra Oscar

Bambi wrote: »

People are ignoring the fact that the independents/ an others are the second biggest grouping behind sinn fein. The big three parties that the media and business interests revolve around are losing their hegemony.

That's a fairly significant shift. Not only is there space for sinn fein to become a major player, there's also room for another new party to expolit.

There will be a whole load of independents elected to the next Dáil. I still wouldn't rule out a SF / Labour / left independents coalition after the next election. It wouldn't last too long but when push comes to shove I think SF will be unable to resist the urge to be in power for 2016.

FF won't be entering government in any shape or form after the election. The party needs quite a bit more time to rebuild in opposition, and that process cannot really even begin properly until the party gets new faces elected to the Dáil at the next election.

Godge wrote: »

Cuiv would do a deal with them, even if Martin wouldn't.

O'Cuiv has 0 support within the parliamentary party. Martin will lead the party into the election given the fact that there is absolutely no one else really capable of taking over at the moment. Given what has happened in recent weeks between FF & SF relations I can't see a coalition on the cards.

A FG / SF coalition is more likely given that FG have a lot of their government agenda still to get through, and they will feel compelled to keep an eye on SF in government. I still think that is an unlikely outcome though, but more likely than a FF / SF coalition.

michael999999

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

There will be a whole load of independents elected to the next Dáil. I still wouldn't rule out a SF / Labour / left independents coalition after the next election. It wouldn't last too long but when push comes to shove I think SF will be unable to resist the urge to be in power for 2016.

FF won't be entering government in any shape or form after the election. The party needs quite a bit more time to rebuild in opposition, and that process cannot really even begin properly until the party gets new faces elected to the Dáil at the next election.

Under the stewardship of new face Michael martin?

alastair

Bambi wrote: »

People are ignoring the fact that the independents/ an others are the second biggest grouping behind sinn fein. The big three parties that the media and business interests revolve around are losing their hegemony.

That's a fairly significant shift. Not only is there space for sinn fein to become a major player, there's also room for another new party to expolit.

Given the disparity of ideology and goals of the independents you'd be hard pressed to know what manner of party that might be.

maccored

I cant see that happening, but the day it does is the day I stop voting SF.

Godge wrote: »

Today's poll shows that a potential SF/FF coalition would have 46% of the vote. Given the fractured nature of the independent vote, that would be enough to gain them an overall majority should they agree a transfer pact.

Cuiv would do a deal with them, even if Martin wouldn't.

nuac

Pocoyo wrote: »

Non profit government factories that pay the living wage covering costs by producing goods or services.

Won't work in an open economy such as Ireland's

twowheelsgood

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

There will be a whole load of independents elected to the next Dáil. I still wouldn't rule out a SF / Labour / left independents coalition after the next election. It wouldn't last too long but when push comes to shove I think SF will be unable to resist the urge to be in power for 2016.

Yes, it wouldn't last long, which is why SF would be mad to go for it. But yeah, the 1916 stuff would be a carrot for them they might find hard to resist.

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

FF won't be entering government in any shape or form after the election.

I wouldn't bet too much that they won't!

alastair

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

There will be a whole load of independents elected to the next Dáil. I still wouldn't rule out a SF / Labour / left independents coalition after the next election. It wouldn't last too long but when push comes to shove I think SF will be unable to resist the urge to be in power for 2016.

The numbers just aren't there. And that's ignoring the record of infighting amongst the various 'far' left parties. Labour are going to have precious few seats after the next election and certainly will be adverse to going into any sort of coalition - they'll need to step back and rebuild.

guinnessdrinker

alastair wrote: »

Given the disparity of ideology and goals of the independents you'd be hard pressed to know what manner of party that might be.

Would hopefully at the very least be better than the lack of ideology from the current government parties!

twowheelsgood

maccored wrote: »

I cant see that happening, but the day it does is the day I stop voting SF.

There are no babes for SF in the Dáil ballroom!

You have to get into bed with someone. There may not be much of Labour left next time out so if you rule out FF, do you think SF will be enthused about teaming up with FG?

But you are exposing the kind of problems that SF will encounter once they countenance entering government. They will have to make difficult decisions that their supporter won't like.

And any realistic coalition party they opt for will see many people, like you, dessert them.

dave ireland

I do not understand why the lesser ranks of F-Gael don't do something, look whats going on around them. Rome burns while Nero plays, Hitlers bunker, why don't they do something.

alastair

guinnessdrinker wrote: »

Would hopefully at the very least be better than the lack of ideology from the current government parties!

What would? My point is that there's space for whatever shade of ideology you would care to point to, libertarianism possibly excepted, or indeed another ideology-free pragmatic grouping. The nature of what people want in a party that they're not getting from the existing parties, isn't evident from the broad swath of independents they do vote for.

twowheelsgood

guinnessdrinker wrote: »

Would hopefully at the very least be better than the lack of ideology from the current government parties!

If ideology is your thing. Personally I would be thrilled with any government that could match the economic recovery that the current government is delivering.

michael999999

dave ireland wrote: »

I do not understand why the lesser ranks of F-Gael don't do something, look whats going on around them. Rome burns while Nero plays, Hitlers bunker, why don't they do something.

As long as the wages are going in every week, there happy!

rozeboosje

Sadly, I'm not surprised. One major political party completely flurked up this country when they were in power. Then the other one took over, bulldozed its junior coalition partner into an untenable position as all too often happens in coalitions such as these, and then proceeded to rape the people who were already suffering over and over and over again in order to balance the books. All of this plays perfectly into the agenda of populist scumbags, just like it always has. I dare say the outcome will also be only too predictable.

Dan_Solo

rozeboosje wrote: »

Sadly, I'm not surprised. One major political party completely flurked up this country when they were in power. Then the other one took over, bulldozed its junior coalition partner into an untenable position as all too often happens in coalitions such as these, and then proceeded to rape the people who were already suffering over and over and over again in order to balance the books. All of this plays perfectly into the agenda of populist scumbags, just like it always has. I dare say the outcome will also be only too predictable.

Ah yes, if you don't like something popular call it populist.
You think FG and FF are bending arse over tit to be populist and get some votes?

K-9

Rightwing wrote: »

I'm not sure, give or take a few % points, it seems like a trend has developed.

Bambi wrote: »

People are ignoring the fact that the independents/ an others are the second biggest grouping behind sinn fein. The big three parties that the media and business interests revolve around are losing their hegemony.

That's a fairly significant shift. Not only is there space for sinn fein to become a major player, there's also room for another new party to expolit.

Well yes, the 2 and a half party system is gone, that's for sure, but there has been no major change yet from the elections, the polls are too unpredictable.

SF were doing poorly in the polls a few months back, now doing well. I don't see what the reason is for either tbh, the 2 opposition parties have been poor for me and it's more disillusionment from Labour voters and even a few FG that's causing the unpredictability.

Dan_Solo

twowheelsgood wrote: »

If ideology is your thing. Personally I would be thrilled with any government that could match the economic recovery that the current government is delivering.

Interesting economic recovery where everybody has less and less money every year.

alastair

Dan_Solo wrote: »

Interesting economic recovery where everybody has less and less money every year.

1. Everybody does not have less money each year.
2. The state and therefore everyone that benefits from the state, is better off in terms of economic security.