National Hunt 14/15 thread

Gringo180

radharc wrote: »

Given a decent novice campaign he would be much shorter than 7s on the day

I wouldnt back him at that price myself. He should be 7s just to turn up. Should keep him over hurdles for another year, is he still only a 6yo?

shmeee

cack_handed wrote: »

Well looks like Vautour is very likely Arkle bound judging by Mullins' comments today so where that leaves UDS is hard to know. Odd Mullins talked about so many of his stable stars today but no mention at all of UDS unless I missed something

Arkle : UDS
JLT : Vautour
Annie Power - Chasing, schooling starting next week.

Harry Angstrom

My Tent Or Yours out for the season.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=4033824&category=0

Dr. Bre

Road to Riches being aimed at the big chase in Down royal soon. JNW I think its called

ste2010

It's hard to believe no novice will go down the champion route this season unless cue card steps back in trip .
Without discrediting sire de grugy too much I think he bet a band bunch this season and with all the waffle coming from the Henderson yard it's hard to keep the belief that sprinter sacre will ever be the same again..
The question I would ask is whether it would be Nicky Henderson or Willie Mullins that would have the gonads to pitch a novice in the champion chase..
Josses hill looks absolutely made for chasing but henderson doesn't have the luxury of many superstar chasers in the making that Mullins has. Given how protective Mullins is its hard to believe he would do something as extreme as that but you'd have to consider it with the stock he has! Has to be the weakest champion chase in a long time

Backstreet Moyes

ste2010 wrote: »

It's hard to believe no novice will go down the champion route this season unless cue card steps back in trip .
Without discrediting sire de grugy too much I think he bet a band bunch this season and with all the waffle coming from the Henderson yard it's hard to keep the belief that sprinter sacre will ever be the same again..
The question I would ask is whether it would be Nicky Henderson or Willie Mullins that would have the gonads to pitch a novice in the champion chase..
Josses hill looks absolutely made for chasing but henderson doesn't have the luxury of many superstar chasers in the making that Mullins has. Given how protective Mullins is its hard to believe he would do something as extreme as that but you'd have to consider it with the stock he has! Has to be the weakest champion chase in a long time

Un De Sceaux if he goes chasing?? But hopefully champion hurdle.

jimjamcos

It's hardly going to be a weak Champion Chase if Sprinter Sacre and SDG show up at their best. And if Sprinter doesn't, Simonsig will drop back and romp it! :-)

Backstreet Moyes

jimjamcos wrote: »

It's hardly going to be a weak Champion Chase if Sprinter Sacre and SDG show up at their best. And if Sprinter doesn't, Simonsig will drop back and romp it! :-)

If SS turns up at his best it's a no contest interesting to see how he gets on when he returns. But ye if he doesn't come back Simonsig will win it doing handstands.

ste2010

jimjamcos wrote: »

It's hardly going to be a weak Champion Chase if Sprinter Sacre and SDG show up at their best. And if Sprinter doesn't, Simonsig will drop back and romp it! :-)

I am concerned that the last sprinter sacre we seen is the one that will return. All flags coming from Henderson yard would be pointing in that direction..every week a different tune..that's stinks to me
He said 4weeks ago sprinter sacre needs a lot more work but would probably appear the latter half of the season. Then a week later he said he was back to to him old self and schooling with a another and flying..I don't believe any of it..and I have a feeling when he does come back he won't be even close to the superstar he was unfortunately. Sir De grugy with all due respect beat somersby by 6L in last years champion a horse that is hardly progressing as a 10yr old that couldn't cut it with the finest over the past few seasons.
That to me is a weak champion chase. Cue card should be the one who takes up the mantle this year and show them what it's all about over 2m..it would be great to sprinter sacre back to him old self again but can't see it happening

skippymac6

ste2010 wrote: »

I am concerned that the last sprinter sacre we seen is the one that will return. All flags coming from Henderson yard would be pointing in that direction..every week a different tune..that's stinks to me
He said 4weeks ago sprinter sacre needs a lot more work but would probably appear the latter half of the season. Then a week later he said he was back to to him old self and schooling with a another and flying..I don't believe any of it..and I have a feeling when he does come back he won't be even close to the superstar he was unfortunately. Sir De grugy with all due respect beat somersby by 6L in last years champion a horse that is hardly progressing as a 10yr old that couldn't cut it with the finest over the past few seasons.
That to me is a weak champion chase. Cue card should be the one who takes up the mantle this year and show them what it's all about over 2m..it would be great to sprinter sacre back to him old self again but can't see it happening

Nicky just needs to give him a bit of that juice he stores away

madmoose

Downroyal looks good tomorrow with the wkd hurdle, wonder if little king robin can progress in this company vs tiger roll, arctic fire etc. when looking into it i didnt realise she ran in the mares at chelt at 100/1!!

Also i hope apache stronghold goes well on his chasing debut, had his set backs this horse but hope we see him full fill potential over a fence, had a small nibble on him at 20/1 for the jlt at the festival.

shmeee

madmoose wrote: »

Downroyal looks good tomorrow with the wkd hurdle, wonder if little king robin can progress in this company vs tiger roll, arctic fire etc. when looking into it i didnt realise she ran in the mares at chelt at 100/1!!

Also i hope apache stronghold goes well on his chasing debut, had his set backs this horse but hope we see him full fill potential over a fence, had a small nibble on him at 20/1 for the jlt at the festival.

Morning Run @ 10/11 is a steal and won't last long, bet365. Lump Job.

Oscars Well.

shmeee wrote: »

Morning Run @ 10/11 is a steal and won't last long, bet365. Lump Job.

shmeee

Oscars Well. wrote: »

Seemed I got the last of it. Value got anyway.

ste2010

Great to see road to riches win for Noel
Meade today. Finally after the bugs in his yard he's back in the big time with some really nice horses .
I wouldn't read too Much into his win today gold cup wise. Never expected Boston bob to win as although he's won
His first races each season his running is usually below par first. The gold cup is made for Boston bob (the distance, the oace, the course) in my opinion however I think champagne fever may turn out to be something special over this distance and the gold cup will be a season too late for Boston bob! Nice to see his price drifting out though...
Wouldn't read too much into silviniaco contis run either..Taquin de Seuil could be one to take out of the race today, his jumping was appalling but definitely got the trip

Huntley

Boston Bob is a suspect candidate for me, he hit a serious vein of form last year but I'd have serious reservations over his physicality in Gold Cup terms.

As someone who staunchly followed TDS last year I had high hopes for him in this years staying division. That effort today was very disappointing, he was soundly beaten and with the weight and fitness advantage it was a tame display. He ran on at the end but it wasn't a performance that would put him anywhere near the top of this years stayers. He seems to hold plenty back for himself as well, wouldn't be surprised to see them try something to sharpen him up next time.

I'm very much of the thinking that Silviniaco Conti wins the Betfair.

ste2010

Huntley wrote: »

Boston Bob is a suspect candidate for me, he hit a serious vein of form last year but I'd have serious reservations over his physicality in Gold Cup terms.

As someone who staunchly followed TDS last year I had high hopes for him in this years staying division. That effort today was very disappointing, he was soundly beaten and with the weight and fitness advantage it was a tame display. He ran on at the end but it wasn't a performance that would put him anywhere near the top of this years stayers. He seems to hold plenty back for himself as well, wouldn't be surprised to see them try something to sharpen him up next time.

Down royal is a funny track for some horses and I didn't think it would suit him particularly FTO. He is quite a small horse and can get caught for toe sometimes but if he jumps safely he stays and seems to gain ground as opposed to just staying on in fast paced races making up for the least ground lost to toe..He reminds me a little of bobs worth.
I definitely think 3m 2 is right up his alley and I thought the Newbury Hennessy would have been a great race to aim for last season. I believe we would see him at his strongest over this distance on a track like Cheltenham.

I thought TDS jumping upset his rhythm on a number of occasions today but he did stay. The jewson he won last year wouldn't have been the strongest but I thought 3m would have brought him on a bit. I get what your saying re holding himself back. Do you think headgear of some sort would do the trick or something more evasive?

Who's your idea of a gold cup winner at the moment? looks like a very weak renewal is on the cards

Peintre Celebre

Nice beginners chase at Fairyhouse tomorrow. Azorian, The Tullow Tank and Mala Beach

supremenovice

I read Willie Mullins stable tour in the RP today.
OMG, the amount of novice chasers he has this season. They include:

Abbey Lane
Abbyssial
Adrianne des Mottes
Annie Power (maybe)
Blood Cotil
Clondaw Court
Don Poli
Outlander
Perfect Gentleman
Tennis Cap
Vautour
Un de Sceaux
Un Atout
Val de Ferbet
Valseur Lido

Incredible firepower on that list!

skippymac6

supremenovice wrote: »

I read Willie Mullins stable tour in the RP today.
OMG, the amount of novice chasers he has this season. They include:

Abbey Lane
Abbyssial
Adrianne des Mottes
Annie Power (maybe)
Blood Cotil
Clondaw Court
Don Poli
Outlander
Perfect Gentleman
Tennis Cap
Vautour
Un de Sceaux
Un Atout
Val de Ferbet
Valseur Lido

Incredible firepower on that list!

And you're forgetting this years RSA winner Pont Alexandre!!

Andalucia

its insane the talent Willie Mullins has available, don't see Point Alexandre taking high rank amongst the novices though

Shemale

Holywell will win the Gold Cup

Mountainlad

New to following horses from this early in a season and studying form.

Just looking at the big race in Exeter tomorrow where Cue Card makes his seasonal bow. Second favourite generally behind Balder Succes.

Have looked at some of the factors involved and having watched previous race footage in the Grade 1s he has competed in, I would be thinking Cue Card is the best horse in the race.

I'm just wondering, how important (or how you would decide how do you gauge the significance you place in it as a factor) is weight in a race like this? Say Hinterland, 3rd in the market, is 20 pounds lighter (if I'm reading right) and say last year when Cue Card finished 3rd he was the same weight now, whereas in the Betfair Chase a few weeks later he was carrying 3 pounds less, the same as the previous year when he won this race.

Second thing, I read the Oddschecker preview which is undoubtedly brief but one thing that was mentioned was the fact that the betfair chase is in around 3 weeks time and that may be the short term target. To what extent would that be a consideration towards deciding the winner? Would the suggestion be in relation to the training done, how hard will the jockey push the horse (seems a bit hard to try and predict something like that) or what exactly?

Could see the potential merit to either as a cause for caution when comparing them to the horse's 3rd last year in this race and the 1st 2 years ago, given the weight being given last year and also the fact that two years ago the horse didn't run again for 50 days as opposed to 18 this year and last?

Sorry if that's a bit of a ramble, any advice would be much appreciated.

NaiveMelodies

Mountainlad wrote: »

New to following horses from this early in a season and studying form.

Just looking at the big race in Exeter tomorrow where Cue Card makes his seasonal bow. Second favourite generally behind Balder Succes.

Have looked at some of the factors involved and having watched previous race footage in the Grade 1s he has competed in, I would be thinking Cue Card is the best horse in the race.

I'm just wondering, how important (or how you would decide how do you gauge the significance you place in it as a factor) is weight in a race like this? Say Hinterland, 3rd in the market, is 20 pounds lighter (if I'm reading right) and say last year when Cue Card finished 3rd he was the same weight now, whereas in the Betfair Chase a few weeks later he was carrying 3 pounds less, the same as the previous year when he won this race.

Second thing, I read the Oddschecker preview which is undoubtedly brief but one thing that was mentioned was the fact that the betfair chase is in around 3 weeks time and that may be the short term target. To what extent would that be a consideration towards deciding the winner? Would the suggestion be in relation to the training done, how hard will the jockey push the horse (seems a bit hard to try and predict something like that) or what exactly?

Could see the potential merit to either as a cause for caution when comparing them to the horse's 3rd last year in this race and the 1st 2 years ago, given the weight being given last year and also the fact that two years ago the horse didn't run again for 50 days as opposed to 18 this year and last?

Sorry if that's a bit of a ramble, any advice would be much appreciated.

Welcome!

You are correct re Cue Card- he is top class and the best horse in the race.

Weight is very important in a race like this because it is a handicap.
Basically the point of a handicap is to ensure every horse taking part has an even chance of winning. The horses weight, or rating, is dictated by the handicapper, and is based on all known form.
The higher the rating, the better the horse is deemed to be by the handicapper.
So say Cue Card was racing Hinterland and they were both the same weight.. Hinterland would on all known form be 20 pounds worse off.

Oddschecker would have been referring to the fact that Cue Cards owners wouldn't give a toss if he came last tomorrow- tomorrow is a prep run for the Betfair Chase( words of the trainer). The Jockey won't be giving Cue Card the hardest race in the world and the horse(as will most of the runners) should be fitter next time out.
Cue Card ultimately is at his optimum over a longer trip than this too. The horse is also back from a long injury- which stopped him from winning the Gold Cup ;-)
However the horse is classy and might be good enough to give this weight to the field and win.

For me, I would be looking at which horse looks to be on a good mark(forget the weight when looking at form, the official rating is what you should be looking at) in relation to its previous runs, and how the form of horses in their previous runs has worked out.
Take last years race- Cue Card was running off 172, Somersby off 155. Somersby is now 164, Cue Card 172.
Technically, all other things being equal, Cue Card is 9 pounds better off when they met last year. If we say 1 pound equates to one length- maths dictate that Cue Card wins by 3 lengths.
I'm not sure what a pound would equate to(someone else can answer!).

Lots have things need to be considered including ground, record when fresh, optimum distance and to a lesser extent record on right handed tracks, jockey on board and the trainers form(imo).

Your questions will be better answered by others but I thought I'd give it a shot.


Personally, I think this race is a very tough one to crack and there is no standout bet for me.
I think Hinterlands record when fresh(3 from 3 on his seasonal debuts) and possibly lenient rating(some horses he has beaten and run against in the past year have performed reasonably well since) give him the strongest credentials.

However Balder Success, Somersby, Gods Own all have their claims and even Pepite Rose might have a squeak- and I'm not being smart. Very competitive race given every horse, bar Somersby, could quite feasibly be open to improvement.

posturingpat

I think Naive Melodies covered most of it well there.

As for todays race i wouldn't touch Cue Card with counterfeit.
I had a decent punt on him last year(thankfully got my money back in the Betair at Haydock) in this as the word i was getting was the horse wasn't far off being at full fitness,he failed to raise a gallop at all that race and was soundly beaten, i believe Tizzard said after the race he'd never run the horse over as short a trip as this ever again as it no longer suited the horse yet here he is today,that added to his time off with injury has me avoiding at all costs. If anything i'd be thinking of laying him but he's too big a price.

If forced to have a punt i'd be leaning towards Gods own getting plenty of weight,he beat Balder success off levels at Punchestown and now gets 7lb off him(9lb off Somersby and 17lb off cue card), Balder was given a poor ride that day trying to go toe to toe from the front with Champagne fever but i still think Gods own getting 7lb off a horse he beat on their most recent encounter yet being more than double the price is a squeak of value. I'm almost certain Gods own also still has his Novice status this season so the fact Tom george sends him here rather than a Novice chase says a lot.

It's a watching brief for me though unless my mind changes as the day goes on.

A race worth watching today is the Beginners chase at Fairyhouse,Tullow tank,Mala Beach and Azorian all make chase debuts,I think the ground will be too quick for Mala beach so it's between the other 2 for me,Azorian's too big for me at 10's e/w and i'll probably try a reverse f/c with the Tullow tank too.

paddy no 11

Was a strange one last year - they also said they had a virus in the yard when he got beat last year. Realistically though he was up against two classy up and comers who had weight in hand plus he goes much better left handed. 172 is just too high i think but wouldnt be surprised if he won, would chance hinterland myself.

Peintre Celebre

Yeah Hinterland for me too but not keen enough to have a bet. Giving that much weight away is an awful big ask. Not impossible but it would need to be a very good performance especially for a horse who hasn't ran in so long

Peintre Celebre

Le Bec unlikely to race ever again following an injury at Ascot. What a shame thought he could have been a really nice chaser this year

skippymac6

Andalucia wrote: »

its insane the talent Willie Mullins has available, don't see Point Alexandre taking high rank amongst the novices though

I think it will obviously depend on if he is fully recovered from last years injury. He was always considered a chaser and given the amount of hype he was getting before the Neptune two years ago I don't think it would be too far fetched to see him up around the top of the novice stayin chasers.

That said I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see other hurdlers like Un Atout, Abyssial etc surpass him but I'll be disappointed if injury free, that he doesn't hold his own at the top level.

Huntley

Is Silviniaco Conti being a slow horse the chic contemporary view now for certain horse enthusiasts? I don't recall hearing much of it last year but even his trainer is following suit now.