National Hunt 14/15 thread

zpehtsfd

Gregk961 wrote: »

Do people really think the fly will go to Cheltenham again? Mullins seemed to be suggesting that it wasn't in doubt after the race today. I had assumed with the rise of faugheen he would be staying local until retirement

The horse is clearly in great health so there is no reason why he can't be campaigned exactly like last year. If i was the owner i would insist on him going to Cheltenham especially since it will be his last time and win/lose the crowd will give him some rapturous applause on his swan song. Here's hoping.

Backstreet Moyes

I don't think he will go. Ruby won't want to get off Hurricane Fly and he also won't want to see Townend winning on Faugheen.

oPATCHo

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

theyd be better off leaving hurricane fly at home, wont place in another champion hurdle. leave him to mop up the grade 1s in ireland although id fancy jezki to beat him again after cheltenham

Agreed

Try and get one more Grade 1 victory under his belt.... but he's 11 this week and I think its time to give this fellow his retirement. He owes nothing more!

All it takes is one bad jump (although he's a class act), and I'd rather not see a legend go out like that!

There's no need to take him back to Cheltenham. He had Faugheen and if worse comes to worse, he can run Annie Power at the CH.

Retire him, sooner rather than later

sting60

The Lexus is the race for the gold cup IMO.I loved the run off Boston bob/lord windermere.I naped lord Windermere last year and he will not be out of the first three if he gets good ground but Boston bob will be very hard to beat.based on the last race hurricane fly/jezki have zero chance of winning unless the ground helps jezki.one horse stood out big big time for Cheltenham and should win .

Backstreet Moyes

Anyone know where Apache Stronghold will go for Cheltenham. Been following him and he ran very well just outstayed. He travels and jumps well and if he goes for the JLT i think 20/1 looks big.

Also looking at backing The Young Master every week for the RSA i presume he will more than likely go for the RSA.

sting60

Nuts102 wrote: »

Anyone know where Apache Stronghold will go for Cheltenham. Been following him and he ran very well just outstayed. He travels and jumps well and if he goes for the JLT i think 20/1 looks big.

Also looking at backing The Young Master every week for the RSA i presume he will more than likely go for the RSA.

I spoke to Paul carbury last year and he told me"top top horse but I cannot touch him with whip as he has sores all over".

Mountainlad

Nuts102 wrote: »

Anyone know where Apache Stronghold will go for Cheltenham. Been following him and he ran very well just outstayed. He travels and jumps well and if he goes for the JLT i think 20/1 looks big.

Also looking at backing The Young Master every week for the RSA i presume he will more than likely go for the RSA.

Would Apache not be better for the RSA? Was pretty comprehensively outpaced by Valseur Lido over the shorter trip. He did well on good ground chasing home Vautour at Punchestown.

Thought Boston Bob was good given Mullins said he was worried about the ground pre race. Ruby said something about if declarations were made with the ground known he might have rode On His Own. Wins at Aintree and Punchestown the back end of last year and he looks better than a lot at 20/1 for the gold cup to me.

But Dynaste can't be anywhere near a 33/1 shot surely if he turned up. I know Pipe said that he'd rather win a Ryanair than place in a Gold Cup but would he rather finish runner up in a Ryanair or runner up in a Gold cup? Conti is deserving favourite, but Dynaste maybe the one to take from it after making up 4-5 lengths on him after the Betfair. Proven form at Cheltenham, was within a 2 lengths of Conti on the better ground at Aintree, and with the likes of Champagne Fever and possibly Cue Card rerouting to the Ryanair it might be stiffer competition than last year. The Gold cup looks open like last year so would make sense, so if you're reading this Mr Pipe, send him there.

Be interested to here what ye think on that.

Alba Frere

+1. Dynaste already has a Ryanair, be crazy not to go for the Gold Cup. Definitely capable of winning and no reason why he wouldn't have as much claims as Silviniaco Conti. I was really impressed with SC in the KG but since then the more I think about his chances, the more I'm beginning to doubt him.

jimjamcos

Dynaste doesn't stay dourly enough for the dogfight of a GC. That's a definite. Less talented animals like Lord Windermere, Boston Bob and On His Own would take advantage of this. He'll go for the race he can win, Ryanair, then onto Aintree.

madmoose

Dynaste will have a tougher race on his hands thia year for the ryanair compared to last when he meets don cossack, also would fancy cue card and taquin du seuil at a good price 16/1 to drop back from 3miles and go well.

Backstreet Moyes

Good laugh off Paddy Power's new year special bet. Faugheen to win the next 3 champion hurdles 11/1 what comedy gold.

Shemale

Nuts102 wrote: »

Good laugh off Paddy Power's new year special bet. Faugheen to win the next 3 champion hurdles 11/1 what comedy gold.

Thats retarded, 11/1 for him still be hurdling in 3 years is plenty skinny enough.

Juwwi

Nuts102 wrote: »

Good laugh off Paddy Power's new year special bet. Faugheen to win the next 3 champion hurdles 11/1 what comedy gold.

God that's the worst bet I've ever seen ,I'd love to know if anyone actually
backed that .
I'd say you'd be more likely to lose your docket before March 2017
than the bet actually coming up.

Harry Angstrom

Too many silly races at Cheltenham these days. I'm beginning to think that the three-day festival was far better. Ante post betting is dead, as far as the novice chasers and novice hurdlers are concerned. I'm only waiting for them to introduce a 2½ mile all-aged Grade One hurdle race to push punters completely over the edge.

Shemale

Could be very tempted to have a smash into Simonsig for Gold Cup at 33s. No guarantees he stays but if he does there isnt one horse in the field I would be worried about.

Shemale

Hills have Don Poli at 20/1 for 2016 Gold Cup, lunacy

klairondavis

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Too many silly races at Cheltenham these days. I'm beginning to think that the three-day festival was far better. Ante post betting is dead, as far as the novice chasers and novice hurdlers are concerned. I'm only waiting for them to introduce a 2½ mile all-aged Grade One hurdle race to push punters completely over the edge.

Edward Gillespie who has pushed through all these silly new races was awarded an OBE today! The quality of the festival has definitely been diluted over the last ten years. A fifth day and a Saturday Gold Cup can't be that far off.

longshotvalue

klairondavis wrote: »

Edward Gillespie who has pushed through all these silly new races was awarded an OBE today! The quality of the festival has definitely been diluted over the last ten years. A fifth day and a Saturday Gold Cup can't be that far off.

Id disagree strongly with this, even the worst races at the festival are very good strong NH races and id would have any of them over 99% of flat racing ..

There should be a couple more of the really good handicaps if anything, as they are great races..

klairondavis

aidankkk wrote: »

Id disagree strongly with this, even the worst races at the festival are very good strong NH races and id would have any of them over 99% of flat racing ..

They might be good races but they are diluting the overall quality. The Ryanair basically replaced the Cathcart which was a great stepping stone race for second season novices on the up. Now we have horses running in the Ryanair who would have genuine each way claims in either the Champion Chase or the Gold Cup. The Mares Hurdle has denied us the opportunity of seeing Quevega having a crack at Big Bucks and it now looks certain that Annie Power will end up in it rather than another crack at one of the big races. The addition of the Albert Bartlett and the JLT has enabled novice hurdlers and chasers to duck one another. Black Jack Ketchum was stepped up in trip to avoid Denman and Nicanor. The Arkle was always a great race for potential future stayers learning their way as novice chasers. These horses are going for the 2m5 now rather than taking on the speedsters over the minimum trip. Would we see Kicking King taking on Well Chief now that the JLT is an option?

An argument can be made that the introduction of the Fred Winter has made the Triumph less of a lottery but a juvenile handicap hurdle should have no place at the elite national hunt festival. Same with the novice handicap chase. Both of those races have had ten runnings now and none of the twenty winning horses have lived long in the memory. Most of these new races wouldn't stand out on an average Saturday.

Backstreet Moyes

Just had a discussion last night with a friend. He thinks Ruby will ride Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle i think he would ride Faugheen.

We got on to do people think Mullins and Ruby don't give Faugheen as much praise as he deserves. After Faugheen won the Neptune, Ruby said Vautour was the better of them by a distance. When asked the other day about Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle, Ruby played down the performance.

Mullins said a few weeks ago the prices for the Champion Hurdle are madness and that HF is still the best. After Hurricane Fly won the other day Mullins said he was still the number 1 Champion Hurdle horse for March.

Just find it strange they always seem to put down Faugheen. Maybe it's because of the emotional attachment to Hurricane Fly.

Again Un De Sceaux last year he was denied a shot at Cheltenham. Any trainer in the world would have been delighted to have him as a Champion Hurdle horse. Instead i think mainly because his style would have done no favours to HF he didn;t go to Cheltenham. Again this year i would not be surprised if he stayed at home while Vatour goes for the Arkle.

Alba Frere

I would be stunned if Ruby didn't ride Faugheen. They may run HF in the Champion Hurdle but IMO it would be a case of letting Townend have a crack at it with no expectations. I would take no notice of what WPM and Ruby say in public.

Johner

Ruby will ride Faugheen if both line up in the Champion, he's not stupid and there's no room for sentiment.

klairondavis

I get the feeling they have been deliberately talking down Faugheen from day one because they realise just how good he could be. Mullins has never been one for talking his good horses up the way Nicholls does and Walsh is just being Walsh. There is very little chance he will stay on Hurricane Fly if the two line up in March.

krustydoyle

Shemale wrote: »

Hills have Don Poli at 20/1 for 2016 Gold Cup, lunacy

Did you see the 2/1 for the 4 miler in march with powers is mad too

jimjamcos

The very interesting Marito returns in big chase at Thurles tomorrow. Got injured when with Mullins and required 3months box rest but now with CA McBratney. Looks a competitive race for a comeback but Hacked up in a p2p up north last month and the horse behind won the recent Down Royal hunter chase impressively. Maybe not a betting proposition at 3/1 but looked a seriously well handicapped horse early last season before injury struck and if back to his best will definitely be one to follow going forward..

sting60

madmoose wrote: »

He's my ap bet at 12/1

But the worst trainer in living memory is training him.

Gregk961

For the first year in a long time I havnt had 1 antepost chelt bet coming into the new year. Struggling to find any angle at all this year.

Jezki is the one I fancy in the champion races but i have a feeling there is a better price to be head when the faugheen hype hits full swing

Soft Falling Rain

Antepost is bollix, someone had it spot on earlier on.

yaboya1

The two ante-post prices that stick out to me at the moment are Dynaste @ 33/1 for the Gold Cup (PP) and Champagne Fever @ 12/1 for the Champion Chase (WH). Obviously there's the risk that they won't show up in those races, but if they do they'll be nowhere near those prices.

They're the races I think they should target. Dynaste has already won a Ryanair and is surely worth a go at the big one. He has the ideal profile for the race imo. Champagne Fever has run at 2m three times now at the festival, winning twice and only finding one too good last year. He beat the front two in last season's Champion Hurdle in the Supreme. so hardly lacks speed. The fact that he gets further is hardly a disadvantage. Racing as keenly as he did in the KG though might be his undoing over further. It also looks a poor renewal considering the doubts over SDG & SS.

yaboya1

sting60 wrote: »

The Lexus is the race for the gold cup IMO.I loved the run off Boston bob/lord windermere.I naped lord Windermere last year and he will not be out of the first three if he gets good ground but Boston bob will be very hard to beat.based on the last race hurricane fly/jezki have zero chance of winning unless the ground helps jezki.one horse stood out big big time for Cheltenham and should win .

Seems brave/silly to write off last year's champion based on a defeat around Leopardstown by Hurricane Fly (who's 9/9 there). He ran worse in the race last year and still won at Cheltenham. That's the day he's being trained for.

Wouldn't totally disagree about Boston Bob, but he's a 10yo now and they just don't win. Kauto Star & Denman couldn't even do it at that age. I'm not so sure about the Lexus as a form guide either. 12.5l from first to last?