National Hunt 14/15 thread

madmoose

Bookies badly overreacting about josses hill going 16/1 arkle, to be fair they needed to get a run in him and was carrying plenty of condition. Yes he made a few novicey jumps but still made it round and was beaten by a fitter horse. All that matters is march and at 16/1 its a great price. Will be 7/1 again when he wins next time. UDS the one to beat though if vautour goes JLT.

Shemale

madmoose wrote: »

Bookies badly overreacting about josses hill going 16/1 arkle, to be fair they needed to get a run in him and was carrying plenty of condition. Yes he made a few novicey jumps but still made it round and was beaten by a fitter horse. All that matters is march and at 16/1 its a great price. Will be 7/1 again when he wins next time. UDS the one to beat though if vautour goes JLT.

The yard are in rotten form too, all told it wasn't too bad given the above and his jumping performance.

I can't see anything beating UDS, he won so snugly and while he is hard to gauge the time of the race was 4m10 and he won taking a pull, he is a machine.

Does anyone know the quickest Arkle time, he may well worry it.

jimjamcos

Shemale wrote: »

The yard are in rotten form too, all told it wasn't too bad given the above and his jumping performance.

I can't see anything beating UDS, he won so snugly and while he is hard to gauge the time of the race was 4m10 and he won taking a pull, he is a machine.

Does anyone know the quickest Arkle time, he may well worry it.

Couldn't agree more, he's a monster. Have had a small bet on the UDS/Vautour double with Boyles at 19/1. The fastest time was by Tiutchev in 2000; his time was 3m 46.

ComplyOrDie

uds won't be mapped in March unless they get him settled (unlikely), and considering Willie's Chase record..... Avoid like the plague

sting60

Au quart de tour in my opinion is going to be very special for willie Mullins.he won at dromahand in a hack canter from globalisation who has won under rules for Rebecca Curtis.we have seen some lovely horses from Mullins in bumpers this year but i think this is his best but time will tell as he needs 3 miles with time as he is about 17 hands.

nobody told me

Why not run un de sceaux in the queen mother? I know it prob won't happen but what difference does it make if it's a queen mother or an arkle he will go off like a scalded cat in both

rossom

nobody told me wrote: »

Why not run un de sceaux in the queen mother? I know it prob won't happen but what difference does it make if it's a queen mother or an arkle he will go off like a scalded cat in both

I think we'll see him or Vautour in the Queen Mother. Can't see both running in the Arkle and I don't think they'll want to step Vautour up in trip for a lesser race in the JLT (for all its now a Grade 1)

Mullins has nothing of any note to run in the QMCC if those two stick to the Novice races and I think he might go for the big one in what looks, at this time, a very average renewal if Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy don't make it.

jimjamcos

rossom wrote: »

I think we'll see him or Vautour in the Queen Mother. Can't see both running in the Arkle and I don't think they'll want to step Vautour up in trip for a lesser race in the JLT (for all its now a Grade 1)

Mullins has nothing of any note to run in the QMCC if those two stick to the Novice races and I think he might go for the big one in what looks, at this time, a very average renewal if Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy don't make it.

I'd be absolutely shocked if Mullins threw a novice into open company for the first time in a QM. It would go against everything he's done previously. I know it's a cliche but himself and particularly Ruby are only concerned with Gr1 winners, honestly don't think they care who they win a festival race with as long as they win it. HF was probably the exception last year but given that they raced Vautour over 2m4 at Punchestown, I think the only way he doesn't run in JLT is if Un De Sceaux doesn't go.

Going by Christmas entries, it looks like Ballycasey is being mapped for QM, which is very interesting as he's always been held in the highest regard, particularly by Kirk, and has serious form over shorter trips.

Arctic89

rossom wrote: »

I think we'll see him or Vautour in the Queen Mother. Can't see both running in the Arkle and I don't think they'll want to step Vautour up in trip for a lesser race in the JLT (for all its now a Grade 1)

Mullins has nothing of any note to run in the QMCC if those two stick to the Novice races and I think he might go for the big one in what looks, at this time, a very average renewal if Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy don't make it.

There isn't a prayer Ruby Walsh will allow a novice to run in open company. If they both make it to March, one will run in the JLT, probably Vautour.

zpehtsfd

jimjamcos wrote: »

I'd be absolutely shocked if Mullins threw a novice into open company for the first time in a QM. It would go against everything he's done previously.

I would argue that WM has never had a novice chaser like Vautour before. If UDS makes it to Cheltenham and the top 2 in the CC are absent then i'd say there is a better then 50/50 chance he goes the CC. GL.

ste2010

Would the fact that UDS is an unrestrainable front runner would it really make a difference what company he runs in?

jimjamcos

Arctic89 wrote: »

There isn't a prayer Ruby Walsh will allow a novice to run in open company. If they both make it to March, one will run in the JLT, probably Vautour.

Agree with you there (bar UDS obviously :-)) and the latest ATR video with Mullins has a quote when asked about Vautour being ready for Christmas, he says "Vautour is ready for anything" with an arrogance you rarely see from him. Plenty seem to agree with you too, as low as 8/1 for QM on exchanges now.

Backstreet Moyes

ste2010 wrote: »

Would the fact that UDS is an unrestrainable front runner would it really make a difference what company he runs in?

It might make a difference to Willie. I have little doubt the reason UDS didn't run in the Champion Hurdle last year because it wouldn't have suited Hurricane Fly.

skippymac6

zpehtsfd wrote: »

I would argue that WM has never had a novice chaser like Vautour before. If UDS makes it to Cheltenham and the top 2 in the CC are absent then i'd say there is a better then 50/50 chance he goes the CC. GL.

Trainers like to mull over the idea of sending a novice to one of the championship races but the fact of the matter is that they would do well enough to win their own novice race. The last two novices in the last few years that were entertaining the novice step up were My Tent Or Yours and Grand Crus for the champ hurdle and gold cup respectively. Both ended up sticking to Novice company and both were beaten.

I know the race looks poor enough but it is a step up and both those horses are so full of potential that I can't see Mullins stepping them up. As someone said above, he values Grade 1 races (Quevaga to Mares, Annie Power to Mares grade 1 at Punchestown etc) and doesn't listen to the public on popular decisions (UDS to champ hurdle, AP to champ hurdle etc). I'd be very surprised if they didnt stay in novice company for the year. The JLT is a poor "historical" grade 1 but remember Sir Des Champs ran in that a few years back when that was a gd 2. I understand that was due in part to gigginstown having First Lieutenant for the RSA too though

Shemale

I think UDS is most likely to end up highest rated of the pair. Its a big statement but I would have UDS in a similar bracket to Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre, sure he had a bit to prove but thats where I see him headed

Oscars Well.

Don't get the big wankfest over UDS. He has beaten sweet fxck all. Sure his times look great but lets see how he gets on when he's put under pressure by proper horses

Gregk961

Shemale wrote: »

Its a big statement but I would have UDS in a similar bracket to Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre, sure he had a bit to prove but thats where I see him headed

Ridiculous. His chasing career so far has been winning one micky mouse race and falling in another. Potentially a very good horse but saying he is or even could be anything close to Sprinter Sacre, a virtually unbeatable animal, is ludicrous

Nulty

Un De Sceaux is definitely exciting and has massive potential. His temperament is the worry. His exhuberance will be his downfall if anything. He's clearly extremely talented and achieved more over hurdles than Sprinter Sacre did.

I understand the guys saying he's done nothing yet and can't deny that he is nothing compared to horses who have actually proven themselves but racing is all about what comes next and the potential UDS has is hugely exciting.

As per the other x vs y discussion currently raging in the forum, UDS could be Frankel to Sprinter Sacres Sea The Stars

Arctic89

Oscars Well. wrote: »

Don't get the big wankfest over UDS. He has beaten sweet fxck all. Sure his times look great but lets see how he gets on when he's put under pressure by proper horses

This.

If we all agree Mullins loves winning Grade 1s above all else, then surely if UDS was good enough he'd have ran the Champion Hurdle last year, regardless of Hurricanes chances. I don't think he was good enough to deserve a Champion Hurdle run and while I think he'll run the Arkle, I think he has a massive amount to prove before we can give him a massive chance. At the end of the day, he's beaten very little of note and has a lot to prove before we crown him the Arkle winner.

jimjamcos

Arctic89 wrote: »

This.

If we all agree Mullins loves winning Grade 1s above all else, then surely if UDS was good enough he'd have ran the Champion Hurdle last year, regardless of Hurricanes chances. I don't think he was good enough to deserve a Champion Hurdle run and while I think he'll run the Arkle, I think he has a massive amount to prove before we can give him a massive chance. At the end of the day, he's beaten very little of note and has a lot to prove before we crown him the Arkle winner.

There's absolutely no doubt that UDS had shown enough to merit a place in the CH lineup. There's only one horse which Mullins clearly shows a bias for and that's Hurricane Fly. He's a world record holder and no matter how many Mullins trains for the rest of his life, he'll never have another achieve that, and he knows it. Sure he's sending the unbeaten red-hot Champion Hurdle fav to England to help HF keep on winning in Ireland. Says it all really

Shemale

Gregk961 wrote: »

Ridiculous. His chasing career so far has been winning one micky mouse race and falling in another. Potentially a very good horse but saying he is or even could be anything close to Sprinter Sacre, a virtually unbeatable animal, is ludicrous

Its ridiculous to say he has the potential to be up there with Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre?

He beat a 148 horse 12 lengths giving him 3 pounds in soft ground on the bit.

This horse has a phenominal engine, he covered 2m in Thurles in soft ground on the snaff with no company in 3m55.

What is ridiculous is saying there are many horses that can do this or trouble a horse that can.

Harry Angstrom

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Silviniaco Conti is a great bet at 4/1 for the King George. I expect him to be a much shorter price on the day. There are too many question marks about Simonsig. Al Ferof isn't a 3 miler. Champagne Fever likewise. Dynaste and Cue Card were beaten easily by Silviniaco in last year's race and there's no reason why this year should be any different. 4/1 is a very nice price for SC.

Paid for Christmas

primary 2

what a performance by faugheen today,its been a while since i have been so impressed by a horse,hopefully he can deliver another big performance in the champion hurdle although i would be a little fearfull of the new one,

paddyisreal

With everyone falling over themselves about faugheen. Jezki is serious value at 6/1 .
Will take some stopping if the ground comes up good in march and jessica is a genius at getting them there right every year. Moscow flyer anyone ? Faugheen at twos or jezki at sixs. A no brainer to me . If mullins trained jezki it would be half the price

curioser

curioser wrote: »

There was an AJM runner in the bumper that was probably just as blatant - following in the pattern of half-decent bumper horses that don't take on Mullins hotpots.
And as for Martin's Blair Perrone in Cork, looked like a pipe opener for Christmas, when presumably the owner will be home from New York.

Hmm, mixed emotions - saw the potential, then couldn't get on in time.

The horse in the first paragraph of the post runs in the 12.20 in Leopardstown Sunday - Okotoks, although it's probably a case of locking the stable door etc.

the groutch

curioser wrote: »

Hmm, mixed emotions - saw the potential, then couldn't get on in time.

The horse in the first paragraph of the post runs in the 12.20 in Leopardstown Sunday - Okotoks, although it's probably a case of locking the stable door etc.

thought it was interesting to see Malcolm Denmark send horses to tony, didnt he used to have a rake of bumper horses with Carl Llewllyn?

Peintre Celebre

curioser wrote: »

Hmm, mixed emotions - saw the potential, then couldn't get on in time.

The horse in the first paragraph of the post runs in the 12.20 in Leopardstown Sunday - Okotoks, although it's probably a case of locking the stable door etc.

Very good spot. Shame you missed it.

bit of a bogey

curioser wrote: »

The horse in the first paragraph of the post runs in the 12.20 in Leopardstown Sunday - Okotoks, although it's probably a case of locking the stable door etc.

Still one to watch. Wasn't knocked about and got a nice intro to hurdles today

Gregk961

Do people really think the fly will go to Cheltenham again? Mullins seemed to be suggesting that it wasn't in doubt after the race today. I had assumed with the rise of faugheen he would be staying local until retirement

hawkeyethenoo

theyd be better off leaving hurricane fly at home, wont place in another champion hurdle. leave him to mop up the grade 1s in ireland although id fancy jezki to beat him again after cheltenham