WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

derekon

Snowmaker wrote: »

Early days indeed, and I guess I'm not the only one grasping at straws to find proof that this year could just be like 2010...without saying it definitely will be the same... see here ---> http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=87336204&postcount=7

The saying "clutching at straws" comes to mind Best way to play this winter is to anticipate a mild winter (MT is pretty accurate so I am placing my bets on him).

If you anticipate a mild winter, you might be surprised with one or two decent cold spells and some snow. These can of course occur in mild winters too. However if you are anticipating a 2010 event again, I think you could be disappointed. That was a 1 in 50 year event and I think after the disappointing winters of 2011 and 2012 (snow wise), people need to start lowering their expectations to match what most Irish winters produce (mild muck with a lot of close misses in terms of decent snow).

D

delw

I think the cold easterly v's mild Atlantic muck only a hundred or so miles to our east was the worst kick in the teeth,snow all over Wales while we had drizzly/rain muck over us :mad:

icesnowfrost

derekon wrote: »

The saying "clutching at straws" comes to mind Best way to play this winter is to anticipate a mild winter (MT is pretty accurate so I am placing my bets on him).

If you anticipate a mild winter, you might be surprised with one or two decent cold spells and some snow. These can of course occur in mild winters too. However if you are anticipating a 2010 event again, I think you could be disappointed. That was a 1 in 50 year event and I think after the disappointing winters of 2011 and 2012 (snow wise), people need to start lowering their expectations to match what most Irish winters produce (mild muck with a lot of close misses in terms of decent snow).

D

1 in 50 event but 2010 was a back to back cold/snowy winter from 2009

There is always hope for us cold lovers lol. we will always wish for a cold winter with widespread snow.

derekon

I am all for a heavy fall of snow but that is something quite rare in Irish cities. Also lets get real here, for the Dublin region at least, December 2010 was a monster month for snow. Late 09 and early 10 didnt have a patch on it for snow depth!

D

Snowmaker

derekon wrote: »

The saying "clutching at straws" comes to mind Best way to play this winter is to anticipate a mild winter (MT is pretty accurate so I am placing my bets on him).
If you anticipate a mild winter, you might be surprised with one or two decent cold spells and some snow. .... However if you are anticipating a 2010 event again, I think you could be disappointed. .... people need to start lowering their expectations to match what most Irish winters produce (mild muck with a lot of close misses in terms of decent snow).
D

That's the expression I was looking for!
Sensible words... and yes, if I were a betting man I's put a tenner on MT's outcome, but then I'd still put two quid on a cold & snowy winter purely out of hope :-)

Don't confuse expectation with hope/desire/insanity... I'm not expecting much, but hoping for lots :-) ... and with each passing mild-muck year, the chances (and therefore the hope) start to build in my/our favour ... it's a vicious cycle.

Late Jan and early Feb is my marked period for some decent cold .. here's hoping!

Gonzo

personally I'd be more worried if things were colder than usuall over past 2 to 3 months which they have not been, the warm summer and very mild autumn leading into a mild start to winter is a good thing imo. This could eventually lead to a break in the mild pattern after christmas with some cold spells in January and February when we really need them! I've a feel at some stage I will see more snow this winter than the past 2 winters where I saw next to nothing.

derekon

Gonzo wrote: »

personally I'd be more worried if things were colder than usuall over past 2 to 3 months which they have not been, the warm summer and very mild autumn leading into a mild start to winter is a good thing imo. This could eventually lead to a break in the mild pattern after christmas with some cold spells in January and February when we really need them! I've a feel at some stage I will see more snow this winter than the past 2 winters where I saw next to nothing.

I would be of that view myself Gonzo. I don't see the recent mild weather (and the mild weather due next week) as a bad thing. If we are going to get some decent cold, then December and January are the key months for this. I understand February is probably the coldest month in Ireland however the sun begins to get stronger in Feb so give me December or January snow any day!

D

Lets not forget the very long and brutal cold spell this spring, if this had happened in winter it would have been severe.

remember the fodder shortages and the fields brown ? yes it was a very bad cold spring.

This Autumn reminds me of 09/10 where we had very mile wet Autumn.

Who knows, we do live mostly at that fighting edge of cold V warmth. Anything can happen.

Has anyone heard from Joe Bastardi, anyone hear his winter forecast ? He used to cover Europe in detail but his weatherbell site he couldn't be bothered.

ninebeanrows

Something perhaps from the ECMWF this evening:

snaps

We have had our 1st snowfall overnight (south east Poland). We are fairly elevated, house at 602m, land to our west goes to 1725m (babia gora national park) and land to our south goes 2790m (tatra mountains/Slovakia). Snow at our level is very patchy, but 800m's and above is quite thick. Temp 2c, dew point 0. Uppers don't seem that cold, 0 to -5c.

Lenny5

Had MT put out his winter forecast yet?

Lumi

Lenny5 wrote: »

Had MT put out his winter forecast yet?

Yes, it's here http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=87053334&postcount=299

rickdangerouss

Lenny5 wrote: »

Had MT put out his winter forecast yet?

Yes he did.

Elmer Blooker

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif
I don't like the look of this, fortunately it's still early days but it brings back very bad memories of winter 11/12.

kkeating

Accuweather iPhone app has 5mm snow on the 18th of November.

ninebeanrows

ECMWF at extended range continues to hint at a possibly northerly set up from T240hrs

rickdangerouss

kkeating wrote: »

Accuweather iPhone app has 5mm snow on the 18th of November.

For which area?

icesnowfrost

Wer are they getting this weather from

maquiladora

I have a feeling we will get some kind of cold snap/spell in the second half of the month. There have been hints at the outer reaches of FI on the GFS and the CFS has picked it up a few times too.

talkabout

Weathercheck wrote: »

ECMWF at extended range continues to hint at a possibly northerly set up from T240hrs

Don't really see that on the charts at the moment but maybe someone could post a link as i'm obviously missing something here, thanks

kkeating

rickdangerouss wrote: »

For which area?

Dublin

donedl1

Snow in the UK, forecast seems to be for a prolonged spell.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/441370/Christmas-already-No-an-early-taste-of-a-paralysing-winter-as-snow-hits-UK

dopolahpec

donedl1 wrote: »

Snow in the UK, forecast seems to be for a prolonged spell.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/441370/Christmas-already-No-an-early-taste-of-a-paralysing-winter-as-snow-hits-UK

A covering of snow in the uplands of the far north of England in November is no big deal. The Express has a perpetual 'paralysing' winter forecast for the UK, based upon a few choice soundbites by amateur weathermen looking for media coverage with shock-jock proclamations.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

I have a feeling we will get some kind of cold snap/spell in the second half of the month. There have been hints at the outer reaches of FI on the GFS and the CFS has picked it up a few times too.

Yep , I've too been seeing it pop up on the CFS , not as strongly on the gfs though but still interesting



Proper FI material but will be fun to watch, could bring some strong northerly cold winds and by those charts , snow on the mountains

nacho libre

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif
I don't like the look of this, fortunately it's still early days but it brings back very bad memories of winter 11/12.

Well, a blocking high over mainland europe, with mild southerlies or southwesterlies being sucked up over of us is what M.T. Cranium has gone for as the dominant theme this winter.

maquiladora

It's all FI of course but the hints are there...

ChuchuBear

brass monkeys today in fairness

dopolahpec

The model output is getting interesting. Growing shape of something cold developing in FI. GFS ensembles are full of eye candy at 192 hours+. Many showing scandanvian sourced NE flow aka 2010. This is how it starts regardless of whether it delivers. Good fun

dopolahpec

From Gibby, a respected forecaster who posts on netweather UK

"In Summary this morning while this coming week remains as it has looked for some days now with High pressure building up towards the South with rain and wind becoming more infrequent the further South in the UK you go. The longer term output is looking a little more interesting this morning. It appears that High pressure may build North across the Atlantic later next week and beyond, perhaps towards Greenland. Should this verify, and it is still a very embryonic sign this morning the weather in 10-14 days time would shift towards much colder weather than we have sees so far this Autumn with the risk of sharp frosts greatly increased and the incidence of sleet or snow, in the form of showers also greatly enhanced over Northern Britain. We just need the following days outputs to grow this trend and maintain it's support throughout the various models and their ensembles."

Danno

dopolahpec wrote: »

A covering of snow in the uplands of the far north of England in November is no big deal. The Express has a perpetual 'paralysing' winter forecast for the UK, based upon a few choice soundbites by amateur weathermen looking for media coverage with shock-jock proclamations.

Thing is... that snow was all around 100m at the same latitudes of Louth, Mayo... not exactly up lands in the far north of England.