WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

patneve2

Villain wrote: »

Ya Joe Bastardi tweeted the image below and commented

And unfortunately only years with extremely poor ice extensions are quoted by the media

maquiladora

patneve2 wrote: »

And unfortunately only years with extremely poor ice extensions are quoted by the media

Well last year was a record loss, thats why it got so much media coverage. This year the loss hasn't been as severe, but still lower then average for 2000's, 1990's and 1980's. So while not as horrific as last season, it's still poor overall.

dopolahpec

patneve2 wrote: »

And unfortunately only years with extremely poor ice extensions are quoted by the media

Not so sure, of course the loss of the ice-caps is newsworthy. Is this year the start of a trend of recovery? I've actually heard more about the increased ice this year than I have heard of the decreasing ice in previous years, but maybe that's just on weather forums.

Hooter23

Have not heard this mentioned on the news - Antarctic Ice sets new all time record

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/10/19/antarctic-ice-sets-new-all-time-record-in-october/

Didnt we also have one of the coldest springs on record:rolleyes: it felt very cold anyway!

Records for heat/cold are broken all the time anyway because the records dont go back long enough we are not seeing extremes at all compared to a few hundreds of years ago when there was mini ice ages in europe we aint seen nothing yet in modern times!

maquiladora

Cold weather fans in need of a fix should check out the latest CFS, 850 temps don't rise above 0 degrees at any time from Jan 28 to March 8. The average 850 temp for Feb is -7 with an average 2m temperature for the month at just 1 degree in the midlands.

jaffusmax

maquiladora wrote: »

Cold weather fans in need of a fix should check out the latest CFS, 850 temps don't rise above 0 degrees at any time from Jan 28 to March 8. The average 850 temp for Feb is -7 with an average 2m temperature for the month at just 1 degree in the midlands.

This is what watching the CFS is like

rickdangerouss

maquiladora wrote: »

Cold weather fans in need of a fix should check out the latest CFS, 850 temps don't rise above 0 degrees at any time from Jan 28 to March 8. The average 850 temp for Feb is -7 with an average 2m temperature for the month at just 1 degree in the midlands.

Better chance of both you and me winning the lotto tonight with one line each.

CFS has stamped on my cold fix to many times now.
However its fun to see.

maquiladora

rickdangerouss wrote: »

Better chance of both you and me winning the lotto tonight with one line each.

CFS has stamped on my cold fix to many times now.
However its fun to see.

I enjoy CFS charts the same way I enjoy looking at archive charts from the past, it's eye candy.

Kenring

maquiladora wrote: »

Cold weather fans in need of a fix should check out the latest CFS, 850 temps don't rise above 0 degrees at any time from Jan 28 to March 8. The average 850 temp for Feb is -7 with an average 2m temperature for the month at just 1 degree in the midlands.

If it interests any, my estimated average maxima across Ireland for February is around 6degC, with the estimate for average minima at 1degC. The same 1degC minima figure reoccurs in my model for March, as winter is expected to drag right into that month, however as one would expect March maxima should be a degree up on February.
The 3rd and 4th weeks of January may see maxima in double digits for all counties, sometimes reaching 13degC.
I expect the last week of February to also be mild, with some places hitting 12degC. My description for the 2013-14 winter would be solidly mild.
You have to add the error factor to all of the above, which for my method is around 80-85% okay, meaning I expect to unavoidably fail about 15-20% of the time.

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

If it interests any, my estimated average maxima across Ireland for February is around 6degC, with the estimate for average minima at 1degC. The same 1degC minima figure reoccurs in my model for March, as winter is expected to drag right into that month, however as one would expect March maxima should be a degree up on February.
The 3rd and 4th weeks of January may see maxima in double digits for all counties, sometimes reaching 13degC.
I expect the last week of February to also be mild, with some places hitting 12degC. My description for the 2013-14 winter would be solidly mild.
You have to add the error factor to all of the above, which for my method is around 80-85% okay, meaning I expect to unavoidably fail about 15-20% of the time.

I thought you said previously your model wasn't accurate for Temps?

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

I enjoy CFS charts the same way I enjoy looking at archive charts from the past, it's eye candy.

A be it it is

lapua20grain

even the evening herald is quoting james madden
http://www.herald.ie/news/forecaster-predicting-big-winter-freezeup-29686304.html

Loughc

lapua20grain wrote: »

even the evening herald is quoting james madden
http://www.herald.ie/news/forecaster-predicting-big-winter-freezeup-29686304.html

Oh you tease herald. I suppose a headline saying a mild wet winter expected doesn't have the same ring to it.

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

I thought you said previously your model wasn't accurate for Temps?

The model I use could be called a lunar/solar/magnetic one, along similar lines to how MTC appears to be describing his. I believe the lunar component more often determines the timing of weather events and the solar more often the varying intensities and magnitudes, although there is much crossover in nature, and our science tries a little too much to neatly categorise at times, which brings confusion.
I suspect that this is because our brains are a function of sequence and pattern, and we sometimes fail to satisfy our own arbitrary criteria, assuming that they are universal which they are probably not. We can be left with a pile of coincidences that cannot be explained with known theories.
But coincidences have no place in science - everything is for good reason, and this clause allows alternative viewpoints to gain traction. It is just as well science has had its mavericks, astrologers like Copernicus, Galileo, Kepler, Laplace and Newton, or there would have been no advance in science.
The magnetic compnent describes the stress on the earth's crust and therefore also turbulence in air, land and sea, driven primarily by the land tide with its transference to ocean currents. It is this factor that I believe largely responsible for seismic events.
All these factors are cyclic and therefore somewhat predictable. The error enters when e.g. local factors can interrupt the lunar vector and events may be delayed or displaced.
The solar force is less predictable than the moon and is chiefly governed by positions of planets, mainly the gas giants Jupiter and Saturn. For instance the solar cycle averaging 11 years can vary between 9-14 years.
Temperatures are the domain of solar factors but are also subject to lunar declination. Because solar is the harder to pattern accurately, temperatures are harder to get right than event timing.
Back in January I suggested to Irish media that 9 July would bring heatwaves of up to 30degC because of trends, not literal temperature figures. I had noticed that the closest perigee for this year was due to combine with southern declination in the last week of June, which could cause record high SSTs over the summer. If this was not a causal factor for the heatwaves then these lunar factors must be dismissed as coincidence and another reason found for the ensuing high air temperatures.
When discussing trends one must have a poiint of focus, which is why I do suggest certain temperature trends, but with the riders I have proposed, so that readers know that this is not an exact science but at least an effort to provide something useful for planning purposes, and at least better than having nothing.
I am the first to admit that like every method this one too has failures, but I believe the method has value because failures are outweighed by successes.
If one combines the solar component of 11 years and the lunar of roughly 8-10 and 17-19 years, one can arrive at algorithms that yield a 9-11 year cycle. it is probably why MTC called 1987 an equivalent year in some aspects, and I would tend to agree.
But it is not enough to take just one year, one must utilise all the cycles and come up with a trend. The pity is that in many cases we do not possess verifiable data beyond half a century ago, allowing 30 years for the establishment of national averages.
I hope that helps to answer your question.

Snowmaker

In fairness to Ken - he stands by his methods and keeps posting/contributing here despite the belief or disbelief of some posters. Fair play to him for composing the explanation above. A contribution, no matter how plausible, is a contribution nonetheless, and makes the forum richer as a whole.

Villain

Snowmaker wrote: »

In fairness to Ken - he stands by his methods and keeps posting/contributing here despite the belief or disbelief of some posters. Fair play to him for composing the explanation above. A contribution, no matter how plausible, is a contribution nonetheless, and makes the forum richer as a whole.

I'm aware mods don't want this thread to go off topic but for reasons of fairness and balance I feel have to reply to the above.

I would have to strongly disagree based on previous threads here and the fact that I actually put a full years forecast from him to the test.

highdef

Villain wrote: »

I'm aware mods don't want this thread to go off topic but for reasons of fairness and balance I feel have to reply to the above.

I would have to strongly disagree based on previous threads here and the fact that I actually put a full years forecast from him to the test.

It's a forecast/prediction and therefore is liable not to be correct for some/all of the time. Others have given their thoughts and forecasts for the winter, some just by "what they think" will happen. However these people have not have replies/comments such as the above. Ken is most definitely victimised by the same few people here and it really does need to stop. Grow up kids!!!

Villain

highdef wrote: »

It's a forecast/prediction and therefore is liable not to be correct for some/all of the time. Others have given their thoughts and forecasts for the winter, some just by "what they think" will happen. However these people have not have replies/comments such as the above. Ken is most definitely victimised by the same few people here and it really does need to stop. Grow up kids!!!

Sorry but my reply above is based on several threads here in the past in which I have tried to discuss long range forecasts with Ken and as for your comment that others didn't get the same treatment I think you will find I made a comment on MT's and also on Madden's and Farrell's, the big difference though is Ken charges for his long range forecasts.

The main issue I have with any long range forecast is that the professionals i.e. Met Eireann and the UK Met Office etc say there is no scientific basis for them and the media print them when they forecast extremes and then forums like this one have people talking about them as if they are valid, imo they are similar to horoscopes and while I have nothing against people believing horoscopes most people know the chance of a horoscope being correct is low however they seem to think long range forecasts are likely to be correct!

Snowmaker

So shall we leave it at that and not derail the thread? :-)
Everyone is entitled to their input, forecast, outlook, and guesstimate - and everyone else is entitled to question the method by which they came to their conclusion. It can be modified/changed with each change in variable input factor. That's what makes this forum so enjoyable...especially in silly-season, but lets get back on topic now yeh? :-)

So, here's some eye-candy.. unfortunately it's way out and doesn't form part of an overall trend for that week, it's just cold - not too many other indicators for snow, but sure 'tis a sight to behold - Frosties for breakfast that morning! And my feeling for this winter is that it won't really get going until late-January. My method: Nature's balancing act + gut feeling + guesstimate.

Old diesel

Snowmaker wrote: »

In fairness to Ken - he stands by his methods and keeps posting/contributing here despite the belief or disbelief of some posters. Fair play to him for composing the explanation above. A contribution, no matter how plausible, is a contribution nonetheless, and makes the forum richer as a whole.

Agreed - im not a Ken ring fan in terms of his methods - but id be disappointed if the man wasn't able to post any more.

I welcome the fact he is posting here - and seeing his views - I think its so much better that way.

It benefits the forum to have a diverse contribution - and I thank Ken for contributing to the site with his views and contributions .

finnbob123

take a look at this for cold weather.
http://youtu.be/yFSO68PX9lg

doccy

highdef wrote: »

It's a forecast/prediction and therefore is liable not to be correct for some/all of the time. Others have given their thoughts and forecasts for the winter, some just by "what they think" will happen. However these people have not have replies/comments such as the above. Ken is most definitely victimised by the same few people here and it really does need to stop. Grow up kids!!!

In fairness you have to decide what kind of weather forum you/we want. If you read MT's Seasonal forecasts in depth, there is some out of the box research too (which Ken eluded too). Ken predicts the weather months from now, but read weather forums and they can't tell you what Sundays weather will do with precision. If we want Daily Mail headlines lets link them in, if we want science lets question … or maybe we should "grow up."

Blizzard 2010

I would say we are in a for a few surprises next month. By mid november a quite considerable drop in temperatures maybe. the mountain torque over asia presently may have some implications for the Stratosphere.

MiNdGaM3

Here's an update on theose CFS blocking grahs I posted up here a while ago. For an an explanation on what they mean and how they were made, check this post http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=87038570&postcount=290
The 5 day mean has been changed to the 10 day mean, that's the only difference.

Here's November, the y axis shows the strength of SLP anomalies to our north based on the 12z CFS. The blue bars are the daily values, the red line is the 10 days mean and the trend is in black.



The trend has gone very much downhill since I first posted the graphs. The 10 day mean reached it's minimum on Monday, but has since climbed back toward neutral. Over the last 7 days, 2 runs have show -ve SLP anomalies to our north, 2 have shown neutral and 3 have shown positive. This is an improvement on the previous 7 days, but still offers little in the way of a useful signal for November.

Below is December



The trend is now going downward, but it's still averaging in the slight to moderate blocking category. The last 7 days have seen 2 runs with -ve SLP anomalies to our north, none with neutral and 5 with positive, which still suggests a blocked December is most likely on the cards.

March has shown the most consistent blocking by far, with just 2 out of the last 42 runs showing -ve SLP anomalies to our north!

Kippure

A taste of winter today in Calgary.:D

nacho libre

Kippure wrote: »

A taste of winter today in Calgary.:D

My friend from Edmonton was telling me about this a few minutes ago. She said it can get down to -30 over there during the depths of winter. Call me crazy, but I would to like experience that!

Kippure

nacho libre wrote: »

My friend from Edmonton was telling me about this a few minutes ago. She said it can get down to -30 over there during the depths of winter. Call me crazy, but I would to experience that!

Try minus 50c with wind chill. That's hardcore.

nacho libre

Kippure wrote: »

Try minus 50c with wind chill. That's hardcore.

Was that in the northern most part of the state? To be honest the coldest temperature i experienced over there was -15 in a gale force wind. That was in Winterpeg

Kippure

nacho libre wrote: »

Was that in the northern most part of the state? To be honest the coldest temperature i experienced over there was -15 in a gale force wind. That was in Winterpeg

Just north of Fort MacMurray. Ive experienced minus 54c with windchill. Even though you have all the gear, your hands and face still suffer. Its a tough place to work.

nacho libre

Kippure wrote: »

Just north of Fort MacMurray. Ive experienced minus 54c with windchill. Even though you have all the gear, your hands and face still suffer. Its a tough place to work.

i must tell the people i work with of this, next time they're bitching again about having to work outside in temperatures of 2 degrees:pac: