WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Larbre34

Xenji wrote: »

Met Eireann were on the radio there and Gerry Flemming reckons we will not have a severe winter, and it could be quite mild, I hope it is all lies though :pac:

Im surprised he expressed an opinion really, they are usually so reticent about seasonal forecasting and making themselves a hostage to fortune. Although in fairness he's on solid enough ground predicting a generally mild winter, it must happen about 8/10 times. That doesn't rule out a few short cold interludes of course - in fact you could get a week of 30cm of lying snow and it wouldnt preclude a winter with temps above the Mean if you got a lot of SW'lys the rest of the time.

DOCARCH

Larbre34 wrote: »

That doesn't rule out a few short cold interludes of course - in fact you could get a week of 30cm of lying snow and it wouldnt preclude a winter with temps above the Mean if you got a lot of SW'lys the rest of the time.

Indeed, if you looked statiscally at Winter 2010/11, the winter as a whole was not all that exceptional as while December ('10) had record breaking cold, it was balanced by a pretty mild January and February ('11).

patneve2

DOCARCH wrote: »

Indeed, if you looked statiscally at Winter 2010/11, the winter as a whole was not all that exceptional as while December ('10) had record breaking cold, it was balanced by a pretty mild January and February ('11).

Agreed. Winter 2009/2010 was more notable from a below-temperature average point of view.

Xenji

DOCARCH wrote: »

That's just an opinion...not a forecast.

I wouldn't be surprised if he threw in the old 'we do not look beyond 5 to 10 days' caveat somewhere in the interview?

Oh I know, actually he did not throw it in, was a bit surprised by it.

vickers209

Feels like a summers day today 17C herein east wicklow

Iancar29

May not be the under the setup ( high pressure ) but cold it may be !
Cold clear frosty night , id accept that anyday!!




EDIT : Actually , just looking at the ECM for the same time and it has a weak low to the SE . With that , perhaps something interesting to come in off the irish sea for high ground ( cold pool isnt as strong as gfs )



Still... INTERESTING times

DOCARCH

Xenji wrote: »

Met Eireann were on the radio there and Gerry Flemming reckons we will not have a severe winter, and it could be quite mild, I hope it is all lies though :pac:

I see now Gerald Flemming being quoted (on Breaking News) as saying:

"All I would say about the coming winter is that we have no reason to believe that it will be particularly severe. There's nothing in the runes [sic...presumably they meant to say runs] to suggest that it will be anything other than a normal winter, bringing its share of wet weather, windy weather and some frosty nights."

Hopefully (for the snow bunnies sake) Gerald has just had his 'Michael Fish' moment!

maquiladora

Yes, some kind of a cold snap/spell is still on the cards for later in the month, the models have been showing the possible Atlantic ridge on and off for days now. A lot will depend on how amplified the ridge will be and what lows end up spilling down on our side of it. Still around 10 days away so a long way from any certainty regarding details. Considering the time of year and the source of the air I wouldn't be expecting low level snow whatever happens, but there is potential for a couple of days of colder weather with possible snow on high ground I think and/or some frosty dry days. For anything more significant or longer lasting than that we'd need to see more than just an Atlantic ridge, we'd need to see the high pressure extend up to Greenland to form a block that could allow some real cold to head our direction, there is no sign of that happening right now and probably very little chance that will happen.

sully2010

DOCARCH wrote: »

I see now Gerald Flemming being quoted (on Breaking News) as saying:

"All I would say about the coming winter is that we have no reason to believe that it will be particularly severe. There's nothing in the runes [sic...presumably they meant to say runs] to suggest that it will be anything other than a normal winter, bringing its share of wet weather, windy weather and some frosty nights."

Hopefully (for the snow bunnies sake) Gerald has just had his 'Michael Fish' moment!

If there's one thing Ive noticed about Met Eireann over the years, its got to be their consistently bad forecasting of cold and severe cold. Id say its a fairly high ratio of wrong calls on severe weather.

Suffice to say I'm delighted to hear Gerrys comments today

Elmer Blooker

sully2010 wrote: »

If there's one thing Ive noticed about Met Eireann over the years, its got to be their consistently bad forecasting of cold and severe cold. Id say its a fairly high ratio of wrong calls on severe weather.

Suffice to say I'm delighted to hear Gerrys comments today

To be fair to ME cold weather is very difficult to forecast in our maritime climate, a little bubble of warm air or a warm sector can appear out of nowhere.
This chart looks great doesn't it, but in fact there was an unexpected thaw on this day (Sunday) after ME correctly imo, advised the Govt to keep schools shut on the Monday.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2010/brack/bracka20100110.gif

Weathering

I wouldn't care if Gerry Murphy predicted 3 months of snow. It means nothing. LR forecasting is nonsense, no matter the arguments for it show me a report in to a successful detailed LR forecast and not vague instances were they said x and it was x-ish around that time.

I still enjoy reading peoples thoughts and predictions but I take it with a pinch of salt. LR forecasts is a guessing of a
guess game whatever way you try to spin it

sully2010

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

To be fair to ME cold weather is very difficult to forecast in our maritime climate, a little bubble of warm air or a warm sector can appear out of nowhere.
This chart looks great doesn't it, but in fact there was an unexpected thaw on this day (Sunday) after ME correctly imo, advised the Govt to keep schools shut on the Monday.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2010/brack/bracka20100110.gif

Totally agree snow is very hard to predict in Ireland and I have no problems with ME as I do consider them to be very good overall. But I'm surprised they have come out today and said those comments considering they have been wrong so many times predicting cold and snow as far back as I can remember in the 80s.

I know respected posters on here have gone for a mild theme this winter also but I wouldn't discount a few big surprises along the way. There was a severe enough winter predicted last winter which didn't quite pan out so anything can happen.

ninebeanrows

A chilly enough ECMWF 12z this evening.

It isn't predicting impending snow-mageddon but would be a definite chill with the first wintry showers in parts.

DOCARCH

That should be the lesson for the day....

sully2010 wrote: »

....anything can happen.

....no matter what any forecaster has to say*!

* Unless they are forecasting for the next 48 to 72 hours that is.

delw

Breaking news link to "No big freeze"
With a bonus message from our leader
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/no-big-freeze-this-year-says-met-eireann-612901.html

Victor Meldrew

delw wrote: »

Breaking news link to "No big freeze"
With a bonus message from our leader
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/no-big-freeze-this-year-says-met-eireann-612901.html

I thought you meant M.T.

Then I saw Inda....

In fairness, Gerry can't predict long range, and that is all he says....

A non story, just that we have shed loads of salt....

M.T. Cranium

Not sure if the quotes are referring to calendar year 2010 or winter 2010-11 (either way, probably the same total usage of road salt etc). While I tend to agree with Gerald Fleming's assessment as already discussed here, the spectrum of probability on this winter is rather wide because of a cold signal in early to mid January. While that doesn't appear to have the strength of the Nov-Dec 2010 events, it does come at the most favourable time for heavy snowfall, so if my method comes even close to working out, I would be advising people to hedge their bets and keep a similar supply to what was used in 2010, then if as the forecasts assume, less than half is used, you're well ahead of the game for the following winter which, by the way, has a preliminary model output showing more severe potential than this coming winter. It would not surprise me if there was one fairly large snowfall event in that colder period, with seas running rather warm the right circulation could deliver a lot of snow to eastern counties. Would even speculate the most likely timing is second week of January and on a coarser scale first half of January.

Hints on recent model runs of a 2-3 day wintry turn later this month (around nine or ten days from now). There could be some snow or ice to salt and grit at least in parts of the north and east. OTOH, not seeing any reason to change my very mild Christmas outlook, the large-scale features that I have identified for this from the research output are currently in predicted positions, so no changes in timing for my seasonal outlook.

We'll soon have a thread opened up for a winter forecast contest, look for that one. Our consensus summer forecast from that contest was actually quite close to reality. I think it outperformed all but five of the entrants. Maybe the boards consensus is the missing link in this puzzle.

Victor Meldrew

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

.....you're well ahead of the game for the following winter which, by the way, has a preliminary model output showing more severe potential than this coming winter. ......

What can predict 12 months ahead? What models apply here?

Just curious. I thought no high level predictions (slightly warmer / colder) could be made anymore than 3 months away....?

wildefalcon

I think MT has developed/is developing a long range indicative model that he hopes will give a better outlook than conventional forecasting.

I think he'd be the first to say that it is only his viewpoints codified, he is only testing his own theories.

But if you don't hypothesise, form models to test hypotheses, and draw conclusions then you aren't applying the Scientific Method.

dopolahpec

Looking more likely that a significant cool down is on the cards, a very traditional transition into winter I hope. We may see widespread frost, hopefully some lovely hoar frost, clear winter sunshine bringing out the last autumn colours and even some sleet and snow on the hills. Great stuff altogether, before winter proper gets going. Nice to have the cool down now, it definitely doesn't look like any really unseasonably mild weather is on the cards for a long time. Some nice crisp evenings looking at the Christmas lights in town will be just what the doctor ordered.

Iancar29

Some nice eye candy for those in the north on the 6z GFS ensembles

patneve2

Not a bad GFS 12Z run. Cold Northerly with wintry showers in North and widespread frost followed by more potential in FI.

icesnowfrost

Simon keeling is saying it looks like this cold weather is going to set in with maybe some shleet or hill snow, some frost as well. Hope it does.

jamo2oo9

Isn't it too warm for snow to stick now at this stage of the year? Looks cold tonight but I don't see any precipitation about so snow on the mountains are unlikely to happen. Frost is definite but no snow if I'm reading these charts correctly.

maquiladora

jamo2oo9 wrote: »

Isn't it too warm for snow to stick now at this stage of the year? Looks cold tonight but I don't see any precipitation about so snow on the mountains are unlikely to happen. Frost is definite but no snow if I'm reading these charts correctly.

Talking about a week or so from now.

physioman

looked up long term weather on yr.no and seems possibilty of snow towards end of november

Oscar Bravo

Met Eireann 2210hrs update-Further Outlook : Early indications are for some rain on Monday, followed by much colder conditions in the following days, with sunny spells and a risk of wintry showers and with severe night frosts, especially from Tuesday night onwards.

Hooter23

"Coldest Winter Freeze on the way" according to The Daily Express :cool:

Looks like the met Eireann are picking up on some cold next week!

Quote

Sunday : Mainly dry, with sunny spells. Turning colder, with frost on Sunday night.

Further Outlook : Early indications are for some rain on Monday, followed by much colder conditions in the following days, with sunny spells and a risk of wintry showers and with severe night frosts, especially from Tuesday night onwards.

Though a severe frost to Met Eireann is 0 - -2 degrees !

I dunno what the rest of the country is like but the Northeast hasn't had the breeziness promised each day and we've had very few frost-free mornings. It's already cold enough up here.