WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

maquiladora

Villain wrote: »

Lowell maybe no met stations did but many places saw higher totals than those.

Max snow depth at a Met Eireann station in 2010 was 27cm at Casement. Most stations recorded depths below 20cm. Significant yes, but not a one off event in terms of snowfall.

Elmer Blooker

That 38cm at Malin Head on 19/1/1958 is worth a visit to the archives, looks to me that a polar low aka The Holy Grail was responsible.
not a bad Greenie too!

finnharpsboy

has anyone moved the IOM yet? dont wanna be in its shadow this year

Villain

maquiladora wrote: »

Max snow depth at a Met Eireann station in 2010 was 27cm at Casement. Most stations recorded depths below 20cm. Significant yes, but not a one off event in terms of snowfall.

I had over 40cm and I know areas that saw more.

M.T. Cranium

finnharpsboy wrote: »

has anyone moved the IOM yet? dont wanna be in its shadow this year

Why, are you in Barrow in Furness?

maquiladora

Villain wrote: »

I had over 40cm and I know areas that saw more.

I don't doubt it, but it's best to use the met eireann records when comparing events back over history since they have established records going back decades and beyond, without the variability of private weather records which come and go.

Anyway, the point I was trying to make was that 2010 was not a one off in terms of snowfall, it was just the most significant snowfall since the 80's.

Rebelbrowser

maquiladora wrote: »

It was rare in terms of cold, but not in terms of snowfall. Neither 2009 nor 2010 broke any of the 50 year snow depth records at these Met Eireann stations.

Anyone know / remember this 26cm snow event in Cork in 1978 (I aas a baba then)? First I have heard of it. Higher even than the famous 82 snow in Dublin?

average_runner

icesnowfrost wrote: »

2009 was ment to be a one off then 2010 happened. back to back cold winters.
A cold winter like them can happen any time

Yes at anytime but not very often. Odds are against it.

icesnowfrost

Correct me if I'm wrong but does this look food for cold And i no its way out. This Is from my GFS app

jaffusmax

MT does not seem convinced of any major cold outbreaks anytime soon according to his daily forecast. Still interesting to see how this will pan out!

john mayo 10

Anyone got a link to MTs winter forecast for 2013/14.Read it already but cant find it now .Thanx in advance

Lumi

john mayo 10 wrote: »

Anyone got a link to MTs winter forecast for 2013/14.Read it already but cant find it now .Thanx in advance

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=87053334&postcount=299

maquiladora

jaffusmax wrote: »

MT does not seem convinced of any major cold outbreaks anytime soon according to his daily forecast. Still interesting to see how this will pan out!

There is no sign of any major cold outbreaks, but the models have been hinting at an Atlantic ridge building which could bring a short cold spell in the second half of the month from a northerly. But it's November so not likely to be potent even if it did happen.

Harps

A northerly in November would likely just bring hail and sleet showers I would think, sea temps are still too warm for proper cold air to survive the journey. There'd probably be snow reports somewhere but nothing worth getting excited about, you'd want a sustained cold feed a la Nov 2010 to have meaningful snow this early in the season

icesnowfrost

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it looking better than this time last year. Last year nov was very mild even into early December. So is it looking better this year so far for cold weather ?

Blizzard 2010

jaffusmax wrote: »

MT does not seem convinced of any major cold outbreaks anytime soon according to his daily forecast. Still interesting to see how this will pan out!

so far he has been wrong. its nearing the middle of November and it hasnt been exactly mild as he predicted. Most places are below their mean. This cool zonal pattern appears to be going no where fast at the moment.Of course their is always the second part which could change but I doubt it very much.

Blizzard 2010

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it looking better than this time last year. Last year nov was very mild even into early December. So is it looking better this year so far for cold weather ?

According to the Met Eireann most places were at least a degree below the mean for November 2012. So there are similarities with this year so far ( Met Eireann Monthly data)

patneve2

To be honest I wouldn't mind an anticyclonic end to the month, sunny days and cool nights to bring out those autumn colours even more...

ZX7R

A lot has to do with the way everyday people see the weather some will think its cold some think its mild,I for one thinks it is your normal autumn/winter so far.Also i think we will have a white christmas this year just a hunch by me but some long range models seem to be hinting at a cold spell around that time

icesnowfrost

Look at this. I no it's at 324h but looks great.

maquiladora

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Look at this. I no it's at 324h but looks great.

Just wind and rain unless you live on the top of a mountain. That won't happen anyway, the GFS often throws up huge lows like that at in the low resolution part of the run.

icesnowfrost

maquiladora wrote: »

Just wind and rain unless you live on the top of a mountain. That won't happen anyway, the GFS often throws up huge lows like that at in the low resolution part of the run.

I'm still learning to read these charts. I thought the direction of wind and the blue colours ment cold and maybe some snow. my bad

maquiladora

icesnowfrost wrote: »

I'm still learning to read these charts. I thought the direction of wind and the blue colours ment cold and maybe some snow. my bad

Cold, but upper air temps or -2/-3, in November and being mixed over the Atlantic would only produce rain. Would be snow on hills and mountains though.

patneve2

Would be squally showers of rain, hail and sleet at low lying areas with that chart. 500 hPa charts show sub -35 temperatures so that cold would be dragged down during heavy showers. NW gales, squally showers and associated windchill would make it miserable weather. Anyways pointless as its a 300 hr chart.

Nabber

icesnowfrost wrote: »

I'm still learning to read these charts. I thought the direction of wind and the blue colours ment cold and maybe some snow. my bad

keep up the good work. Personally I said stay away from the charts. They suck you in with something crazy at 300+ hours, before you know it you are in March and Christmas is a blur.

for cold weather you'd want the air to be travelling over as little sea as possible. East being best, south west being worst.

Your chart would be misery for 99% of us.

Clonmel1000

I love people who base their theory on an event like a white Xmas on a 'hunch'. I prefer to use probability and historical data which would lead me to predict a winter of generally dull mild and wet punctured from time to time with colder snaps bringing frost and on occasion wintry showers to higher elevations.

icesnowfrost

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

I love people who base their theory on an event like a white Xmas on a 'hunch'. I prefer to use probability and historical data which would lead me to predict a winter of generally dull mild and wet punctured from time to time with colder snaps bringing frost and on occasion wintry showers to higher elevations.

So a typical winter. Not much predicting so lol

ZX7R

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

I love people who base their theory on an event like a white Xmas on a 'hunch'. I prefer to use probability and historical data which would lead me to predict a winter of generally dull mild and wet punctured from time to time with colder snaps bringing frost and on occasion wintry showers to higher elevations.

my hunch does involve some use of long range charts ,your probably right with probability and historical data ,but for me i don't follow that way of weather prediction , i like to look at medium to long range forecasts to find a trend and use my 'hunch';)

Xenji

Met Eireann were on the radio there and Gerry Flemming reckons we will not have a severe winter, and it could be quite mild, I hope it is all lies though :pac:

DOCARCH

Xenji wrote: »

Met Eireann were on the radio there and Gerry Flemming reckons we will not have a severe winter, and it could be quite mild, I hope it is all lies though :pac:

That's just an opinion...not a forecast.

I wouldn't be surprised if he threw in the old 'we do not look beyond 5 to 10 days' caveat somewhere in the interview?