WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Allanjjmurphy

Has anybody any theories on earths weather and do you have any predictions for WINTER 2013/2014?

Mod Note

To all Forum Users

Everyone has the right to post here whether they use main-stream, model-based approaches to forecasting or other, perhaps less orthodox methodologies. Opposing approaches and theories can make for interesting discussions and a vibrant forum if they remain civil.

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Thanks

tylercollins

Best thread of the year Bit early though :P We gota get through Autumn first!

Popoutman

We await MTC's winter forecast with bated breath - his has usually been a good one to use for trends, at 3 of the past 4 year's forecasts have been good. And you can see them and the threads they spawned here in this forum

In his summer thread MTC said that he would be doing his forecast in September, so we'll have to wait till then for our favourite long term forecast.

I'm not sure what the other major players have started, it's a bit early for Pryce, and I haven't yet looked at Joe Bastardi's.

Dick Masterson

I'm not satisfied with Summer yet. Need more sunshine. Good growing weather lately, though.

omicron

Popoutman wrote: »

We await MTC's winter forecast with bated breath - his has usually been a good one to use for trends, at 3 of the past 4 year's forecasts have been good. And you can see them and the threads they spawned here in this forum

In his summer thread MTC said that he would be doing his forecast in September, so we'll have to wait till then for our favourite long term forecast.

I'm not sure what the other major players have started, it's a bit early for Pryce, and I haven't yet looked at Joe Bastardi's.

Bastardi hasn't been very credible over the last few winters I would have thought.

Blizzard 2010

a repeat of november/december 2010 going by CFS:D

Dick Masterson

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

a repeat of november/december 2010 going by CFS:D

Going by who? I wouldn't mind that again.

Blizzard 2010

Dick Masterson wrote: »

Going by who? I wouldn't mind that again.

By the CFS but they are probably way off the mark, you can look at their charts on Meteociel.I wouldnt mind a repeat either

maquiladora

Some beefy windstorms please.

wing52

JAMSTEC says northern/scandy blocking on their 2013-14 outputs.........

Lucreto

So far this year all the different groups got what they wanted.

People who like nice hot weather got 3 weeks of it.
People who like windy weather got a few storms and more in the coming months.
People who like thunderstorms got days of it.
People who like cold weather with light snow had nearly a month
Will the people who like heavy snow get what they want this Winter?

maquiladora

Lucreto wrote: »

So far this year all the different groups got what they wanted.

People who like nice hot weather got 3 weeks of it.
People who like windy weather got a few storms and more in the coming months.
People who like thunderstorms got days of it.
People who like cold weather with light snow had nearly a month
Will the people who like heavy snow get what they want this Winter?

We've already had two winters with very severe cold and snow within the past 5 years. Statistically it's highly unlikely we'll see a repeat of those winters again for quite a while.

Harps

Not to mention one of the coldest Springs on record this year and a blizzard that dumped several feet of snow across parts of Ulster. Windstorms on the other hand have been in short supply in the past few years, there have been a few here in Donegal but we're overdue a powerful storm that gives the country a direct hit

The cold far outstayed its welcome this year so I'd gladly take a mild winter as long as its accompanied by some interesting weather

Calibos

Harps wrote: »

Not to mention one of the coldest Springs on record this year and a blizzard that dumped several feet of snow across parts of Ulster. Windstorms on the other hand have been in short supply in the past few years, there have been a few here in Donegal but we're overdue a powerful storm that gives the country a direct hit

The cold far outstayed its welcome this year so I'd gladly take a mild winter as long as its accompanied by some interesting weather

I'd much prefer a NOV/DEC 2010 scenario from a financial perspective, which was exactly a month. ie. First Snow in Bray 26th November with Rapid Rain induced thaw on Stephens' Day. The rest of that Winter was reasonably mild after January IIRC. Well certainly nothing like 2013 which was cold enough for central heating till near end of MAY !!

The heating needs to be on most of the day come December whatever the year. Doesn't make much difference if its 7ºc damp and gloomy or -5ºc icy/snow and crisp blue skies. So Heating Bill wise DEC 2010 wasn't much different to any other year. I usually found that our OCT/NOV & FEB/MAR bill would be up a bit on our April-Sept bills. Our DEC/JAN bill would be the big one. Our FEB/MAR bill would be around the same as the slightly up OCT/NOV. In our case heating a 6 bed 2500sq/ft Victorian house that meant our April-Sept gas bills would be about €200 (Gas cooking and hot water), our Oct/Nov about €250, our Dec/Jan about €400-€500, our Feb/Mar back to about €250. 2013 was Oct/Nov €250, Dec/Jan €500, Feb/Mar €500, April/May €450. So instead of 1 big one and 2 slightly above yearly average bills in a usual year we had 3 big ones and 1 slightly above yearly average. Didn't clear the last of the 'Winter' gas bills till a few days into July FFS.

So Yeah! Gimme a short sharp shock like NOV/DEC 2010 any year over a long drawn out Winter of nothingness like 2013.

Gonzo

my preferred choice would be an unseasonably warm autumn with temperatures hitting 21C during first week of october followed by a rapid transition into winter within a matter of 2 to 3 weeks and heavy snowfall in November and December, similar to 2010.

Dick Masterson

Gonzo wrote: »

my preferred choice would be an unseasonably warm autumn with temperatures hitting 21C during first week of october followed by a rapid transition into winter within a matter of 2 to 3 weeks and heavy snowfall in November and December, similar to 2010.

Those be the ingredients for thundersnow.

Harps

Calibos wrote: »

So Yeah! Gimme a short sharp shock like NOV/DEC 2010 any year over a long drawn out Winter of nothingness like 2013.

I'd hardly call 2010 short, its just about the most prolonged cold spell I think I've ever experienced!

Agreed with the rest though, a short & sweet cold spell in early Winter would do nicely, I always find that I get fed up with cold weather by the end of January so a good northerly blast in December would be perfect. Throw in a few proper storms after that and some good crisp sunny weather in January and everyone should be happy!

leahyl

Harps wrote: »

I'd hardly call 2010 short, its just about the most prolonged cold spell I think I've ever experienced!

Agreed with the rest though, a short & sweet cold spell in early Winter would do nicely, I always find that I get fed up with cold weather by the end of January so a good northerly blast in December would be perfect. Throw in a few proper storms after that and some good crisp sunny weather in January and everyone should be happy!

Ooooh yeah!!:D

Snowmaker

Well, well, well... a winter thread! About time! I think last year it was set up in June :-)
Good to see the snow already hitting the hills in Svalbard/Longyearbyen already (when the clouds lift)... http://longyearbyen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php
May it progress, deepen, and share it's whiteness with us for both the meteorological & the astronomical winter.

Lucreto

maquiladora wrote: »

We've already had two winters with very severe cold and snow within the past 5 years. Statistically it's highly unlikely we'll see a repeat of those winters again for quite a while.

Two?

My memory must he hazy but we had the November 2010 big one. I remember we had a a little bit of snow of New Year 2010.

Anyway I hope for some snow this winter. I bought a snow shovel in 2010 and I want to use for its intended purpose.

joebloggs32

Lucreto wrote: »

Two?

My memory must he hazy but we had the November 2010 big one. I remember we had a a little bit of snow of New Year 2010.

Anyway I hope for some snow this winter. I bought a snow shovel in 2010 and I want to use for its intended purpose.

We had a very big chill for Dec/Jan in 09/10 and it followed up again in Nov/Dec 2010.
As a teacher I had no snow days ever before and then had numerous ones two academic years in a row.

dopolahpec

It has been a long while since we had a winter with prolonged calm/frosty and sunny weather. I don't mind what we get as long as it isn't too heavy on the horizontal wet muck.

The weather has been weird this year, the atlantic has been a strangely tame beast, since spring time even.

Harps

Lucreto wrote: »

Two?

My memory must he hazy but we had the November 2010 big one. I remember we had a a little bit of snow of New Year 2010.

Anyway I hope for some snow this winter. I bought a snow shovel in 2010 and I want to use for its intended purpose.

2009/10 was the coldest winter in the past 50 years, I was in Letterkenny at the time and we had lying snow on and off from around the 18th of December right through to mid February.

2008/09 was cold as well with quite a few snowfall events so we've really been spoiled in the past few years

lycan238

Oh yeah a repeat of 2009/2010 please. Was in my second year in College in Cavan and despite the bad weather only failed to turn up for one optional days classes/lectures.

hows that for dedication @joebloggs32

rickdangerouss

Looking at the sea ice,

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

If some early autumn storms hit, the ice could be as low as last year. Would be interested to see what affects if any low sea ice will have this Winter.

Loved the summer and would love a snowy cold winter too. Greedy.

maquiladora

Lucreto wrote: »

Two?

My memory must he hazy but we had the November 2010 big one. I remember we had a a little bit of snow of New Year 2010.

Anyway I hope for some snow this winter. I bought a snow shovel in 2010 and I want to use for its intended purpose.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Winter2009-10.pdf

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/ColdSpell10.pdf

Aiel

As someone already said it was June last year when a winter thread was started.What's wrong with all of ye this year,slow off the blocks:).I think i'll start a Summer 2014 thread in September:).

rickdangerouss

I understand that the link below is a little OT. Sea ice again.

However, the graphs cover allot of weather information that relates to winter for Ireland.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

nacho libre

Give me a foot of snow followed by a week of very cold weather and i'll be happy.

Kippure

nacho libre wrote: »

Give me a foot of snow followed by a week of very cold weather and i'll be happy.

Sorted bud. Done and Done.;)

Weathering

Snow and storms please. As long as it isn't bland and dreary for weeks and weeks on end which has happened a lot with me over the last few Winters. As long as its interesting and action packed I'm happy.

I can already smell the fear,tantrums,arguments and the good old disappointment of the upcoming Irish Winter not to mention the sleepless nights,waiting on the next model run and the one after etc etc. And how could I forget the infamous lampost. It's a vicious cycle/mentally and physical draining but we wouldn't have it any other way...

Popoutman

As long as there is enough rain to allow the river levels to be at where they can be kayaked well - specifically Curragower wave and the Clare Glens; and as long as the nights can be clear and steady enough to allow my stargazing to happen often enough, I really don't mind what the weather holds. I think I'd like some crispy cold spells and go mountain biking on the frosty trails, and a day or two of decent blowy storm. As long as we don't get month after month of light drizzly grey dank rotting weather I really don't mind.

snowstorm445

Weathering wrote: »

Snow and storms please. As long as it isn't bland and dreary for weeks and weeks on end which has happened a lot with me over the last few Winters. As long as its interesting and action packed I'm happy.

I can already smell the fear,tantrums,arguments and the good old disappointment of the upcoming Irish Winter not to mention the sleepless nights,waiting on the next model run and the one after etc etc. And how could I forget the infamous lampost. It's a vicious cycle/mentally and physical draining but we wouldn't have it any other way...

The lamppost watching is truly awful stuff. Unless its absolutely guaranteed to snow heavily (unlikely down here in Cork ), I'm not going to bother with lamppost watching this winter, I'll just wait and see what's there in the morning. I spent hours last winter endlessly refreshing the Met Eireann radar and peeping out the window to see if any stray flakes were falling, total time wasting, often only getting to see the odd snizzle shower (a term which I think was coined last winter!)

DOCARCH

snowstorm445 wrote: »

....the odd snizzle shower (a term which I think was coined last winter!)

Snizzle has always been.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

DOCARCH wrote: »

Snizzle has always been.

Snizzle is the worst, it teases you !

Bejubby

Its going to be a cold and snowy winter with no influence from the atlantic this time:)

lapua20grain

Bejubby wrote: »

Its going to be a cold and snowy winter with no influence from the atlantic this time:)

we can only hope:)

tylercollins

UK Weather Forecast Winter Outlook - Kris Surtees

At this stage, we are only able to offer our very preliminary thoughts on the upcoming winter. We should be able to provide you with our more in depth preliminary winter forecast during the Autumn, before releasing the final forecast some time in November.

At present, our expectations are of a cooler than average winter, carrying on the trend from the last few winters, with snowfall likely to be more frequent than was the case during the milder winters of the 90′s/00′s. December currently looks like it will finish slightly above average temperature wise, though rather unsettled conditions are likely to dominate.

January and February, as things stand, look likely to finish below average temperature wise, with some frequent colder spells particularly during February.

These very early indications are based upon the analogues used in our Summer 2013 forecast, and as such are very open to change. The biggest wildcard for the current forecast has been the recent uptick in solar activity, along with an unpredictable QBO state heading into the winter. Most of our clues for the winter tend to come through the month of October. We will update this page as and when we are able to.

Blizzard 2010

Winter will probably start off where it stopped in March. Below average temperatures with a lot of snow. November and December will be interesting.

Danno

Greenland is currently very cold by August standards with some stations running -10c below average. Looks like the cold is building early.

martinsvi

Danno wrote: »

Greenland is currently very cold by August standards with some stations running -10c below average. Looks like the cold is building early.

can you share your source please? I checked this myself few days ago, and few stations I checked reported temperatures close to average high for given day. Double checked just now - same story. Can I no longer trust wunderground.com?

Allanjjmurphy

Umm, I loved this year, great weather. Now, let winter be a real snowy one!

Allanjjmurphy

Bring it on.. That's a perfect weather pattern..

Lucreto

Danno wrote: »

Greenland is currently very cold by August standards with some stations running -10c below average. Looks like the cold is building early.

Looking at the ice melt around the north pole and it looks like it won't be as bad at last year.

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Winter will probably start off where it stopped in March. Below average temperatures with a lot of snow. November and December will be interesting.

Hopefully with a bit more snow that will stick. I got a decent snowfall but it didn't stick at all. I hope this year is different.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Yeah, no lying snow really was a disappointment, onward and upward lads !

Snow beers WILL be had

dexter647

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

Yeah, no lying snow really was a disappointment, onward and upward lads !

Snow beers WILL be had

tylercollins

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/statuses/369796589289619457
Recent CFSv2 keeping some consistency as well over a possible Greenland high/northern blocking pattern for the winter http://pic.twitter.com/biZRkYh3tO

The message you have entered is too short. Please lengthen your message to at least 1 characters.

ninebeanrows

tylercollins wrote: »

The message you have entered is too short. Please lengthen your message to at least 1 characters.

Nice to look at these things if they are showing you something you want to see but in reality they are likely less successful than climatology.

tylercollins

Yeah I know that it will definitely change, but it's good to dream of that white winter :P

shootie

I don't think I've ever seen a "prediction" for a mild winter.

dopolahpec

shootie wrote: »

I don't think I've ever seen a "prediction" for a mild winter.

True, I've seen about 3 'forecasts' already, and every single one of them is talking about 'colder than average' again...it's click bait I'm sure