WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

icesnowfrost

How is the weather looking in comparison to this time last year. Iv also heard that a few storms before the winter kicks in is a good sign for a cold set up.

Or am I way off the mark.

Kippure

icesnowfrost wrote: »

How is the weather looking in comparison to this time last year. Iv also heard that a few storms before the winter kicks in is a good sign for a cold set up.

Or am I way off the mark.

Last year we had snow just like today, then about the end of the first week of Novemember she went down to minus 27 over night. Stayed like that up to the end of march. (Fort Mackay, northern Alberta)

Some times we don't get snow just very cold temputures. And when it snows it stays around for months on end.

We are meant to get a cold winter this time round. Below average temputures.

That means one thing.

Its going to be a really cold winter. I,d expect average day time temputures to be around minus 30 instead of minus 20 ish.

icesnowfrost

Kippure wrote: »

Last year we had snow just like today, then about the end of the first week of Novemember she went down to minus 27 over night. Stayed like that up to the end of march. (Fort Mackay, northern Alberta)

Some times we don't get snow just very cold temputures. And when it snows it stays around for months on end.



We are meant to get a cold winter this time round. Below average temputures.

That means one thing.

Its going to be a really cold winter. I,d expect average day time temputures to be around minus 30 instead of minus 20 ish.

I mean in Ireland

Kippure

icesnowfrost wrote: »

I mean in Ireland

Havent a clue, don't live there anymore.:) I just follow MT. And Joe B. And I go by what they suggest winter will be like.

touts

icesnowfrost wrote: »

How is the weather looking in comparison to this time last year. Iv also heard that a few storms before the winter kicks in is a good sign for a cold set up.

Or am I way off the mark.

I suppose its as good a way of giving a long term forecast as any and it certainly beats smelling fox pee or whatever it is your man in Donegal does.

cornee

Saw a few flocks of wild geese heading south over the past week. Is it a bit early for this or is this a sign of a hard winter.

MidMan25

cornee wrote: »

Saw a few flocks of wild geese heading south over the past week. Is it a bit early for this or is this a sign of a hard winter.

It's a sign of geese heading south! :pac:

rickdangerouss

Snow cover has increased in the last two weeks.
NOAA is down allot on this time last year.




Last year this time.


http://www.climate4you.com/index.htm

Blizzard 2010

rickdangerouss wrote: »

Snow cover has increased in the last two weeks.
NOAA is down allot on this time last year.




Last year this time.


http://www.climate4you.com/index.htm

America/Canada snow is less extensive than this time last year. Thats an excellent site

Kenring

While it is interesting discussion Canada's winter bears little resemblance to that of Ireland. Canada should get regular snow whereas Ireland should get off comparatively lightly. In Calgary in the third week in November should be about 5 days of snow, and then fairly continuously from the first week of December until just before Xmas. Temperatures have the potential to reach the -30Cs in Calgary in the second week of December and then reoccur regularly during January and February. But Ireland is unlikely to get colder than -10C this winter.

Speak Now

How often do Ireland get temps below -10??

jaffusmax

Kenring wrote: »

But Ireland is unlikely to get colder than -10C this winter.

Kenring

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

How often do Ireland get temps below -10??

Not often. Does happen occasionally though. e.g.
In Armagh on 23 and 24 January 1963, 2 March 1965, and 16 February 1969.
In Dublin: 23 February 1947 and 31 December 1961.
Probably other counties too but I haven't looked them up.

ninebeanrows

Kenring wrote: »

Not often. Does happen occasionally though. e.g.
In Armagh on 23 and 24 January 1963, 2 March 1965, and 16 February 1969.
In Dublin: 23 February 1947 and 31 December 1961.
Probably other counties too but I haven't looked them up.

I would of thought every other winter somewhere in Ireland gets a minima of -10c or below.

Not that rare at all.

- open to correction

Red Pepper

It will be at least -10C on top of Mount Brandon or Galtymore a few times over the winter and I aim to be there for some of them!

jaffusmax

Colder Mid Nov?

icesnowfrost

Kenring wrote: »

Not often. Does happen occasionally though. e.g.
In Armagh on 23 and 24 January 1963, 2 March 1965, and 16 February 1969.
In Dublin: 23 February 1947 and 31 December 1961.
Probably other counties too but I haven't looked them up.

Are we forgetting 2010

Danno

Getting -10c and below in Ireland during winter can be defined as...

One climatological station reading a temperatures of -10c or below... something that would probably happen 3 or 4 times a decade in my estimation.

OR

Widespread -10c and below readings such as December 2010...

either way both are true outcomes. The widespread outcome will be what everyone expects to happen when reading predictions from K.Ring, MTC et all... this is the sword they fall on when the time comes to pass and people look back on the winter that was and the predictions that came before it.

I think those producing forecasts should bear this in mind, and especially look at population distributions across the island. Saying -10c will be reached in Ireland may not equate to the 2 million people in the immediate areas around Dublin, where as if -10c was recorded in south Leitrim - a home to 30,000 folk - it makes a huge huge difference.

Mesut Ozil

When a high pressure settles over the country and the frosty nights kick in, I've never really seen Met Eireann forecast anything colder than -6*C or -7*C.

If we see -10*C it's because Siberia came to visit.

dopolahpec

Winter still seems a long way away. We've phased from a prolonged period of stagnant murky and extraordinarily mild autumn weather, into an equally prolonged period of Atlantic wind and depressions. What's the next big change gonna be? ;')

DanWall

I moved and lagged my storage tank in the attic after 2010, but its never been as cold since, I monitor the temperature via a wireless sensor; 2010 = 2 deg when I would switch the heater on, 2012 -2013 = 5 deg, no heater required, I also bought some grips to go on my shoes 3 year ago and have not had to use them. so where is the cold spells?

derekon

Kenring wrote: »

Not often. Does happen occasionally though. e.g.
In Armagh on 23 and 24 January 1963, 2 March 1965, and 16 February 1969.
In Dublin: 23 February 1947 and 31 December 1961.
Probably other counties too but I haven't looked them up.

I am sorry Ken I am going to have to correct you on this one.

Dublin Airport recorded a temperature of -11.4oC on the night of December 23rd into December 24th, 2010.

Also if memory serves me correct, it dropped even lower again on Christmas night (before the mild air swept back in) and I think Casement, Co Dublin recorded a low of -15oC on Christmas night, 2010.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/dublin-airport-records-lowest-december-temperature-of-114c-486911.html

D

Elmer Blooker

you will find that temperatures of -10c or lower in Ireland are only recorded when there is lying snow.

Kenring

derekon wrote: »

I am sorry Ken I am going to have to correct you on this one.

Dublin Airport recorded a temperature of -11.4oC on the night of December 23rd into December 24th, 2010.

Also if memory serves me correct, it dropped even lower again on Christmas night (before the mild air swept back in) and I think Casement, Co Dublin recorded a low of -15oC on Christmas night, 2010.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/dublin-airport-records-lowest-december-temperature-of-114c-486911.html

D

Sorry, I don't understand, we all know about 2010 because it is in recent memory so I was reaching further back. I was referring to pre recent years as examples. I seek to know what are you correcting me on. My figures came from Met Eireann records, so I presume they are correct.

Kenring

Danno wrote: »

Getting -10c and below in Ireland during winter can be defined as...

One climatological station reading a temperatures of -10c or below... something that would probably happen 3 or 4 times a decade in my estimation.

OR

Widespread -10c and below readings such as December 2010...

either way both are true outcomes. The widespread outcome will be what everyone expects to happen when reading predictions from K.Ring, MTC et all... this is the sword they fall on when the time comes to pass and people look back on the winter that was and the predictions that came before it.

I think those producing forecasts should bear this in mind, and especially look at population distributions across the island. Saying -10c will be reached in Ireland may not equate to the 2 million people in the immediate areas around Dublin, where as if -10c was recorded in south Leitrim - a home to 30,000 folk - it makes a huge huge difference.

I agree and have agreed not to use the word "widespread" in this forum going forward because it can be misinterpreted. It is why I named the particular counties of Armagh and Dublin in my post.
Perhaps a more accurate policy may be to refer to counties as north, south, southwest, central west etc., rather than all Ireland. Would that be more helpful?

pad199207

Im pretty sure Oak Park recorded negative double temps in 2009/10 and 2010/11. Correct me if im wrong please...

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

I agree and have agreed not to use the word "widespread" in this forum going forward because it can be misinterpreted. It is why I named the particular counties of Armagh and Dublin in my post.
Perhaps a more accurate policy may be to refer to counties as north, south, southwest, central west etc., rather than all Ireland. Would that be more helpful?

Not providing such long range forecasts at all would be better imo, it saddens me when the likes of Electric Ireland email customers saying you predicted a cold winter, many people don't realise that you can't forecast that far ahead and believe these forecasts!

rickdangerouss

Villain wrote: »

Not providing such long range forecasts at all would be better imo, it saddens me when the likes of Electric Ireland email customers saying you predicted a cold winter, many people don't realise that you can't forecast that far ahead and believe these forecasts!

Electric Ireland, Sells the things that will heat people up in winter.
So, If they see that "forecaster A" has a following and presents a forecast that could increase the usage of Electricial items\heating, this might cause a email or two been sent to customers.

"forecaster A" does not have to be correct\wrong in anyway.

Mesut Ozil

Good times:

starskey77

jaffusmax your top in my book when it comes to predictions