WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

jaffusmax

starskey77 wrote: »

jaffusmax your top in my book when it comes to predictions

The only prediction I will make is of a riot if there is no snow this year! Ill leave LRF's to Ken Ring and MTC.

Ill keep supplying links to reliable forecasting sources for people to make their own minds up. I believe people should learn the basic principles of weather modeling and other predictive methods then decide for themselve. Although always keep in mind that after 10 days out no one really knows what will happen with the weather.

To many people just can't seem to admit when they just don't know what will happen!

pistolpetes11

Villain wrote: »

Not providing such long range forecasts at all would be better imo, it saddens me when the likes of Electric Ireland email customers saying you predicted a cold winter, many people don't realise that you can't forecast that far ahead and believe these forecasts!

I know you dont like or give much credence to Kens work or methods but I think it will be best for everyone if you leave it at that for now , its going to take things off topic ,

As far I see Ken is trying to change his posting style which should steer him away from much confrontation and I suggest you do the same.

There will be plenty of time at the end of the winter for you to look at verification stats on his work or MT's or any other LRF,

Thanks

maquiladora

My Winter 2013/2014 forecast :

Snowmaker

I notice a bit of melted/melting snow in front of that Santa ... Maq, you're expecting snow before/around Christmas then?

Joe B. seems to be going with a very harsh, but late, winter for Europe - I can't find anything though to say that the cold will extend to Ireland/UK.. linky ---> http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/09/meteorologists-point-to-signs-of-another-upcoming-nasty-winter-for-europe-would-be-spectacular-sixth-in-a-row/ (from about 7mins onward he talks about Europe)

up for anything

maquiladora wrote: »

My Winter 2013/2014 forecast :

Good God! Santa slips on slush and dies. My kids will be devastated. :(

dopolahpec

It's no wonder it's quiet here. The models are looking grim for anyone hoping for early cold. High pressure firmly over southern europe right throughout the 6z GFS run with Ireland in a non-stop westerly/southwesterly air flow

Spring Onion

dopolahpec wrote: »

It's no wonder it's quiet here. The models are looking grim for anyone hoping for early cold. High pressure firmly over southern europe right throughout the 6z GFS run with Ireland in a non-stop westerly/southwesterly air flow

what about mid-November? I heard there was a cold snap expected.

Kenring

Spring Onion wrote: »

what about mid-November? I heard there was a cold snap expected.

Cold is relative. The northern full moon between 18-20th will probably bring a temperature dip and some precipitation, and therefore maybe some hints of snow in counties like Kerry and Roscommon, but in my opinion a real cold snap won't be until the last days of November. I think snow is unlikely in Britain and Scotland until after mid December.

ninebeanrows

Kenring wrote: »

Cold is relative. The northern full moon between 18-20th will probably bring a temperature dip and some precipitation, and therefore maybe some hints of snow in counties like Kerry and Roscommon, but in my opinion a real cold snap won't be until the last days of November. I think snow is unlikely in Britain and Scotland until after mid December.

Why these two specific counties :eek:

Kenring

Weathercheck wrote: »

Why these two specific counties :eek:

Sorry, they were just examples, could be others too.

Spring Onion

Kenring wrote: »

Cold is relative. The northern full moon between 18-20th will probably bring a temperature dip and some precipitation, and therefore maybe some hints of snow in counties like Kerry and Roscommon, but in my opinion a real cold snap won't be until the last days of November. I think snow is unlikely in Britain and Scotland until after mid December.

Anytime in November will do me. I love an early winter.
I am in Galway so not far from Roscommon and I will be aiming for higher ground anyway around then full moon.

Thanks Ken!

finnharpsboy

its getting closer to us
https://twitter.com/LucyWeather/status/396664720251297792

jaffusmax

Xmas Update

Note: This is the CFS so calm down

Elmer Blooker

funny how you never see a xmas forecast predicting 15c and southerly winds,
:rolleyes:

Kenring

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

funny how you never see a xmas forecast predicting 15c and southerly winds,
:rolleyes:

You do where I live

Rebelbrowser

jaffusmax wrote: »

Xmas Update

Note: This is the CFS so calm down

two comments on that. firstly that was a well presented forecast. who is he?

secondly i have kept an eye on cfs for the last two winters and have found it surprisingly good at trends.....so bring on this xmas eve blizzard!

leahyl

jaffusmax wrote: »

Xmas Update

Note: This is the CFS so calm down

What a dream that would be

jaffusmax

His name is Gavin Partidge and I enjoy his science based forecasts!

Cold USA jury still out on Europe!

vickers209

Looks like a the first good frost of the winter tonight!

maquiladora

patneve2

Winter is here! Heavy rain and hail shower that came out of the blue

patneve2

patneve2 wrote: »

Winter is here! Heavy rain and hail shower that came out of the blue

Looking at the radar, it is clear that it's the first bit of Irish sea convection :P

Spring Onion

Lovely frost last night. The 1st decent frost of the year really cheers me up.
Something very cleansing about it.

pad199207

Spring Onion wrote: »

Lovely frost last night. The 1st decent frost of the year really cheers me up.
Something very cleansing about it.

Yeah exactly, also hardens up the doggy poop so in the morning its handy to clear it up!
Going out in the summer heatwave was horrible! (i wont go into details)

Mesut Ozil

pad199207 wrote: »

Yeah exactly, also hardens up the doggy poop so in the morning its handy to clear it up!
Going out in the summer heatwave was horrible! (i wont go into details)

Why, is your dog's shít made from ice cream or something? I always find it easier to do in the Summer because they're dried out.

Tabnabs

Winter has arrived in the mountains in southern Norway over the weekend. This is at 860m ASL





Just look at the colour of those clouds!

From the excellent photo blog @ http://home.online.no/~sulvund/Voss_Now/

xXxkorixXx

dose anyone know if this winter is going to be freezing cold and or will it snow really hope so think im the only person in the world who hates summer and warm weather. i LOVE the cold and dark nights but then again....i love to have the fire lighting and the heat on when its cold out lmao! so what are people pridictions for winter 2013?? c'mon make me happy! cold weather

tylercollins

xXxkorixXx wrote: »

dose anyone know if this winter is going to be freezing cold

no one knows!

dexter647

Although at present the models are showing no signs at all of any cold weather for the foreseeable future I thought i'd remind you of this exact day in 2010....
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056080007 ...Early days yet;)

Snowmaker

Early days indeed, and I guess I'm not the only one grasping at straws to find proof that this year could just be like 2010...without saying it definitely will be the same... see here ---> http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=87336204&postcount=7