WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

finnbob123

Kenring wrote: »

5-6 weeks to go before a snow event that should affect most of the country.

and so the countdown begins can't wait.

Lucreto

Kenring wrote: »

5-6 weeks to go before a snow event that should affect most of the country.

I may have misread your forecast but I thought you were going for little to no snow this winter.

Can you expand on why you think we will have snow in this period?

Kenring

Lucreto wrote: »

I may have misread your forecast but I thought you were going for little to no snow this winter.

Can you expand on why you think we will have snow in this period?

I have certainly never said no snow this winter.
Here is my earlier post again in part

LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW
November, last week
December, last couple of days
January, around 8th-9th
Feb, third week
March, first week and after 19th

The reason for possible snow at the end of November includes stronger last quarter-moon winds around 25 November bringing down colder northern airflows and reaching a sudden lull around 28th/29th, with that airstream colliding with warmer air of the southern moon in perigee. A wind lull in suddenly warming air is good for snow because an ice crystal must expand to form a snowflake, which is why snow is common when temperatures suddenly rise after freezing.
From 26th-28th may be the second time maxima drop below 10C.
The first time may be around the northern moon of 20 November, which I contemplated mentioning in my list, which may bring brief snow at or near then, but not, in my opinion, lasting long, and probably not for all counties.

MiNdGaM3

Kenring wrote: »

I have certainly never said no snow this winter.
Here is my earlier post again in part

LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW
November, last week
December, last couple of days
January, around 8th-9th
Feb, third week
March, first week and after 19th

The reason for possible snow at the end of November includes stronger last quarter-moon winds around 25 November bringing down colder northern airflows and reaching a sudden lull around 28th/29th, with that airstream colliding with warmer air of the southern moon in perigee. A wind lull in suddenly warming air is good for snow because an ice crystal must expand to form a snowflake, which is why snow is common when temperatures suddenly rise after freezing.
From 26th-28th may be the second time maxima drop below 10C.
The first time may be around the northern moon of 20 November, which I contemplated mentioning in my list, which may bring brief snow at or near then, but not, in my opinion, lasting long, and probably not for all counties.

So are you expecting high pressure to our north west, dragging down cold northerlies, and low pressure to our south, bringing warmer southerlies? Something of a battle ground between cold and mild air over Ireland at the end of November?
Would it not be a very rare occurrence to have suddenly warming air that's still cold enough for snow in Ireland in November? Can you explain further how a lull in wind helps the formation of snowflakes?

jaffusmax

maquiladora

jaffusmax wrote: »

Yeah, the exact same as what he said about the previous winter....

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “We are looking at some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least 100 years. This is most likely to occur in the December to January period with the potential for widespread major snowfall across the country.

Coldest winter in 100 years on way - November 27, 2012

And he said the same the year before that...

He said the 2011-2012 winter "will be exceptionally cold and snowy with well below average temperatures. I fully expect to see records broken with the highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. It is therefore vital to start preparing now in terms of high energy bills and raising awareness amongst the most vulnerable and elderly people of society."

Possible 'Little Ice Age' for Ireland - July 7, 2011

I wonder what he'll be forecasting for winter 2014? I'll tell you what : Whatever will get headlines and expoure for his website so that more gullible people will purchase his .pdf files, thats what. :rolleyes:

Probably the most notorious charlatan in the "business".

blastit

Will it be cold or mild

maquiladora

We'll find out in a couple of months.

Lucreto

Didn't Madden give his forecast already for this year? I think it was mentioned 15 pages back.

It was what I was hoping MT would write but alas it was not to be.

Kenring

Understanding how autumn flows into winter depends on understanding the strength of the Gulf Stream. Because perigees are becoming more powerful during early winter months and are coupled with southern declination it may be assumed that the Gulf Stream could be strengthened and invigorated, warming the sea around Ireland and consequently the air temperatures. It is why November is expected to be a mild month overall, with a strong chance that November may escape snow altogether. My charts show that around 30 November SWs moving NEwards will bring on a cold front moving east, It may result only in cold rain. The reason for both a mild November and December is the expected high SSTs in November and even through December. Then because perigees begin to distance from southern declination in the first 10 days of January, so sea temps will fall dramatically. The first 10 days of January could be devastatingly cold in Scandinavia and dry but severely cold in Ireland.

eskimocat

Iancar29 wrote: »

SNOWING IN SWEDEN!!!! http://webbkameror.se/skidkameror/hemavan/hemavan_1_640.php

Looks heavenly!!!

Lads what happened in Sweden? I popped in to look if there was snow. Is it a light? or explosion? can anyone figure it out?

riggerman

Looks like they turned on every single light on the ski slope and the reflection is messing with the Web cam

camroc1

First post. Been a lurker for several years !

The only other site I regularly post on is Planet Rugby, so I suspect I will have to mind my Ps and Qs.

Moderators be gentle on me.

Anyway, regarding MTs forecast; I am interested in the wheres and howfors. I gather that you restrict your variables and parameters greatly, and have your own 'patent' blend of both that you look at. Having done some work on solving highly non linear laplace equations in the transform domain yonks ago, I am intrigued as to whether what you do is strictly maths based, or 'hunch' based; as I have a very poor view of any model being able to forecast anything beyond a couple of hours beyond radar.

Elmer Blooker

eskimocat wrote: »

Lads what happened in Sweden? I popped in to look if there was snow. Is it a light? or explosion? can anyone figure it out?

It looks like one of those artificial snow guns, they are clearly in a hurry to get the season up and running.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowmaking

lapua20grain

got this from the winter webcam thread looks nice we can only dream
http://longyearbyen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php

jaffusmax

I saw this over on netweather it is some of the methods RJS/MT Cranium uses to produce his forecast. I am still scratching my head

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75437-roger-smiths-developing-lrf-model/page-3?hl=winter+forecast#entry2623031

jaffusmax

Svalbard WebCam



http://longyearbyen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php

Calibos

jaffusmax wrote: »

I saw this over on netweather it is some of the methods RJS/MT Cranium uses to produce his forecast. I am still scratching my head

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75437-roger-smiths-developing-lrf-model/page-3?hl=winter+forecast#entry2623031

No wonder there have been no public spats between boards' golden boy and the medias golden boy. Sounds like they are using similar methods for their long range forecasts. The difference being one is also a good conventional near/mid term forecaster while the other relies on the unconventional methods for near/mid term too. One is capable of admitting when he gets it wrong while the other always tries to wiggle out of admitting he was wrong. I have noticed a trend over the last while of the regulars not being as deferential. Perhaps they realised that the methods of both weren't as dis-similar as they thought.

Or have I gotten the wrong end of the stick?

jaffusmax

Calibos wrote: »

Or have I gotten the wrong end of the stick?

I have came to a similar conclusion to yourself although it about how honestly forecast are made and presented that is the deal breaker for me.

patneve2

Browsing through the weatheronline.co.uk site, I came across their seasonal outlook. Seems to tie in with mt cranium's thoughts.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Seasonal-outlook

icesnowfrost

patneve2 wrote: »

Browsing through the weatheronline.co.uk site, I came across their seasonal outlook. Seems to tie in with mt cranium's thoughts.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Seasonal-outlook

Well I'm hoping they are wrong

jaffusmax

Possible cold spell Last Third of Nov

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=seasonaloutlook&DAY=20131020

'Seasonal outlook - October 20, 2013
Mild December
Cold January
Issued: Sunday 20th October 2013
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob


*December*
There are strong indications from various forecast models that December is going to a month dominated by westerly winds.
This means that conditions are likely to be rather mild overall, although this does not preclude the possibility of cooler weather making an appearance from time to time, especially later in the month.
It is likely to be a wetter than normal December, especially in Ireland, northern England and Scotland, with conditions to the far south being drier at times.
Snow events may effect Scotland on a few days, mostly confined to high ground behind clearing cold fronts.

*January*
Agreement between long range forecast models at the present time that January turns into a significantly colder month.
Lower pressure is expected over the south of the country with a block of high pressure building to the north. Should this pattern become established winds will be turning to the east or northeast for many bringing chilly conditions and periods of rain, sleet and snow.
Drier generally in northern and western Scotland as well as western Ireland although feeling cold.

Captain Bob & Simon Keeling
Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk'

I am going with this set up from Simon Keeling!

rickdangerouss

The amount of snow in Russia, for this time of year is allot. Should help with backing the idea of a colder January with some snow.



Sea Ice has got going very strong too, when measured against the last few years.

finnbob123

http://youtu.be/4Bd29lA0g94
im not sure if this was already posted but looks interesting for all the snow lovers.

icesnowfrost

finnbob123 wrote: »

http://youtu.be/4Bd29lA0g94
im not sure if this was already posted but looks interesting for all the snow lovers.

Lost interest after 5 min. His voice would put u asleep. Lol

andrioolis

finnbob123 wrote: »

http://youtu.be/4Bd29lA0g94
im not sure if this was already posted but looks interesting for all the snow lovers.

thats being forecasted every year

M.T. Cranium

Just to clarify one point being discussed, two forecasters might have theories in the same area (in my case, solar system magnetic field sectors) but the theories could be vastly different in content and therefore the results could be much different. I don't want to get into way too much detail, but the basic idea behind my method is fairly simple to visualize. I subject all past data to signal analysis for many different signals that are postulated to be rather small or at best moderate in size. If there were only one or two of these, they would not produce very much variation in temperature (or other variables). As there are many dozens of them in my analysis, the output has a larger swing from higher to lower temperatures and whatever the accuracy, the output looks like actual weather data, so my task now is to keep studying errors in the forecast output to see if I can reduce those errors. My validation studies show that this task is working out to some extent because the average error is slowly decreasing. But with all this detail and complexity, advances are likely to come very slowly and incrementally and this is what I have come to expect. In fact, the biggest problem to solve now is what to do with the work towards the end of my probable working life, nature does not give us the luxury of a 100-year time window but more like 30-40 and I am just about into the fourth quarter now (or perhaps overtime).

Since the method became this complicated, I have noticed that my "subjective feel" for what's going on has been replaced with a reliance on the method. This is similar to what happens when you make a lot of short-range forecasts, you can get rather hypnotized by the model output. As to skill levels in different time scales, I don't make claims of skill but in any case my approach is exactly the same as professional forecasters with just a very small amount of research application in rare cases where there's a major energy peak of some kind and I find it helpful to incorporate the research results. To be honest, the short-range models are so accurate in general these days that I don't expect my research to outperform them from known starting conditions, so I don't generate the forecasts from the research, just on rare occasions there might be a bit of a modification in the 3-7 day and then from 8 to 15 days I tend to try to blend what I see on the model runs with what my research indicates. Hope that helps to explain some of those points, but to repeat the original point, just because two sources announce they are using some kind of space weather approach to forecasting will not mean their two forecasts will necessarily be similar, it all depends on what theory we use in each case. One thing I can promise you is that my method eliminates subjective bias, I am not in this to fit evidence to desired results (so-called ramping) and not every winter forecast from me is going to be day after tomorrow worst winter in living memory stuff, over time there will very likely be equal numbers of mild and cold monthly outlooks because the research model is recycling past data which over a long period of time will by definition contain equal amounts of mild and cold (or hot and cool in summer).

That thread on net-weather about my research is rather complicated to follow but you're welcome to dive in and give it a look, just keep in mind as you go, these are many, many different factors and each one taken alone would only give a signal of about half to one full Celsius degree, whereas the total variability of UK and Ireland climate is more like 5-6 deg in winter and 3-4 deg in summer (individual days about twice that much). But as there are many dozens of factors, you can get some fairly large accumulated ups and downs. Part of my research is to study how many different factors interact because it probably isn't quite as simple as saying you add them all up and go with the cumulative effect. Some of the factors involve blocking or retrograde flow, and these factors can interact differently with other output. That may be the biggest current challenge in the research and I don't claim to have finished with this question by any means. Analogues can be useful in understanding what happens when X and Y interact.

dopolahpec

The polar vortex is winding in tight toward the pole now, very typically late autumn/early winter weather. Rough Atlantic. Today it feels muggy still, but that will certainly soon change with increased zonality westerly and northwesterly winds will pull in cooler air, and I can see the potential now for a frost in the coming fortnight. Would be nice to see the Atlantic rage and roar, and subside into a ballooning high with mist and frost later in November. Some crisp mornings wouldn't go amiss at all.

Tabnabs

Winter has arrived to the mountains in Norway too

http://www.bt.no/kamera/videokamera/Finse-stasjon-2479956.html

Villain

rickdangerouss wrote: »

The amount of snow in Russia, for this time of year is allot. Should help with backing the idea of a colder January with some snow.



Sea Ice has got going very strong too, when measured against the last few years.

Ya Joe Bastardi tweeted the image below and commented

Worth the repeat and retweet. Stunning increase in snow/ice 2007 vs now