The Winds of Winter (Book 6 Discussion) **SPOILERS for all books & future books**

A Neurotic

Aren't the Baratheons part Targ? And Stannis's daughter has greyscale.

Sleepy

The Baratheon's have some Targaryen blood in their veins but as Burt Mackin says, they're neither imune from disease nor fire-proof. GRRM has said many times that Danaerys surviving the pyre which birthed her dragons was a rare and powerful peace of blood-magic rather than anything to do with her bloodlines.

nerd69

Sleepy wrote: »

The Baratheon's have some Targaryen blood in their veins but as Burt Mackin says, they're neither imune from disease nor fire-proof. GRRM has said many times that Danaerys surviving the pyre which birthed her dragons was a rare and powerful peace of blood-magic rather than anything to do with her bloodlines.

But she didn't get burned in a few cases eg touching the red hot eggs that would support the claim that her bloodline or at least her has some added tolerance to heat/fire

Burt Macklin

nerd69 wrote: »

But she didn't get burned in a few cases eg touching the red hot eggs that would support the claim that her bloodline or at least her has some added tolerance to heat/fire

She may have an unusually high tolerance for heat, but she was still burned by Drogon in Daznak's pit. And again, GRRM has said several times that neither her nor any Targs are fireproof.

Turtyturd

A bit late to this but as much as I don't like it I think Aeogan is the real deal.

I think if Connington had just proclaimed him as the prince there would be room for doubt but by having Tyrion, who has time and time again been portrayed as one of the most intelligent people in the series deduce his identity it gives it credence for me.

Couple that with Varys telling Kevan about him at the end of ADWD. Why would Varys tell a man who is dying a lie rather than the truth? If there was going to be a reveal about his identity that was the point to do it, but for me Varys' speech was aimed at the readers to confirm who he is.

Mr Freeze

^ All valid points.

He could actually be off the Blackfyre line, not an actual Targaryen.

Duckworth_Luas

About 10 years ago at the Dublinia exhibition I came across a display about Lambert Simnel. When reading the books and Aegon appeared I immediately thought of him as Martin's inspiration. Aegon is a fraud, he just dosen't know it himself.

December2012

Mr Freeze wrote: »

^ All valid points.

He could actually be off the Blackfyre line, not an actual Targaryen.

In which case he's not Aegon though.

Mr Freeze

December2012 wrote: »

In which case he's not Aegon though.

Ya, agreed, I don't think he is Aegon, never did, at first I thought he was a fake, just some kid brought up to believe he was the real Aegon. And Jon Connington doesn't know any better, he too has been fooled by Varys & co.

But after reading the Dunk & Egg stuff, I think he could possibly be a Blackfyre, has Targ features, and so looks the part he is playing, although, still believing himself to be a targ.

b34mer23

December2012 wrote: »

In which case he's not Aegon though.

I like the notion that Illyrio's wife was from that much discussed female Blackfyre line and that Young Griff came from that union.

b34mer23

b34mer23 wrote: »

I like the notion that Illyrio's wife was from that much discussed female Blackfyre line and that Young Griff came from that union.

That's what I think too.

Illyrio has been too involved to it to be any other way in my opinion.

podgemonster

Purebred targaryan or not, Aegon would still mostly be considered the 3rd head of the dragon that Rhagar refers to in the House of the undying, right?

Gbear

Turtyturd wrote: »

Couple that with Varys telling Kevan about him at the end of ADWD. Why would Varys tell a man who is dying a lie rather than the truth?

There's no good answer to that question.

If he is telling the truth it's just bad storytelling to have such obvious exposition.

Turtyturd

Gbear wrote: »

There's no good answer to that question.

If he is telling the truth it's just bad storytelling to have such obvious exposition.

Personally I would consider it worse storytelling to have Varys lying just to extend the pretense that Aegon is real into the next book.

Brian?

podgemonster wrote: »

Purebred targaryan or not, Aegon would still mostly be considered the 3rd head of the dragon that Rhagar refers to in the House of the undying, right?

That's what I was thinking. Jon, Dany and Aegon.

Could well be too neat for Martin though. It just occurred to me that the Dragon riders don't necessarily have to be Targaryens. What about if they can warg into the dragons? A leftfield choice could be Rickon Stark.

Gbear

Turtyturd wrote: »

Personally I would consider it worse storytelling to have Varys lying just to extend the pretense that Aegon is real into the next book.

Or he could've just not said anything to the fella he was about to murder.

Or just "Sorry I'm murdering you. No hard feelings eh?"

Unveiling his dastardly plan is just odd.

Paddy Cow

Gbear wrote: »

Or he could've just not said anything to the fella he was about to murder.

Or just "Sorry I'm murdering you. No hard feelings eh?"

Unveiling his dastardly plan is just odd.

I don't think so. Everyone likes to gloat and/or reveling in their cleverness. Vary's doesn't have anyone to spar with anymore now that Baelish has gone on his own business. He's simply enjoying being able to bask in the awesomeness of his plan, knowing that the person he is talking to ain't going to be passing on the tale.

Turtyturd

Either of those 2 scenarios wouldn't bother me. In Gbear's one readers would probably piece it together from Varys' loyalty to the Targearyns.

Again the 2nd one fits in character with Varys but only if he is telling the truth. If Aegon is an imposter he would have said it there, especially if the whole point of revealing the plan was to torment Kevan before he died. 'We are going to rip your family from the throne and replace them with a fake dragon' probably would have been just as effective.

It could be explained by Varys saying the walls have ears in the red keep but if that is the case he probably shouldn't be saying anything....let alone slitting throats or firing crossbows.

intellectual dosser

Varys didn't have any issues arranging the assassination of Danaerys in the first book. He channeled the intelligence from Jorah Mormont back to Robert's small council and then arranged for the assassin that Jorah himself thwarted.

I'm thinking about this even as I type, the assassin was never confirmed to be Robert's, but Varys told Ned Stark that he had arranged it and couldn't undo the plan.

My point here is that I don't think Varys is completely loyal to the Targearyans.

Mr Freeze

intellectual dosser wrote: »

My point here is that I don't think Varys is completely loyal to the Targearyans.

He may have been at one point, but its more likely that he is on the side of his fake Aegon.

I was reading up on this, and I think its a safe bet that Varys is definitely behind this Aegon, but Aegon is most definitely not a Targearyan, could be randomer or a Blackfyre.

From:
http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Aegon_Targaryen
http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Aegon_Targaryen/Theories

A key problem with the pisswater prince story is that it should not have been possible for Varys to know in advance that Aegon would be killed in such a manner as to leave him unrecognizable. If the pisswater prince's face had remained intact after his death as Rhaenys' was, no one would have been fooled. Moreover, the Valyrian features of silver-gold hair and purple eyes are so rare in Westeros that it is extremely unlikely that the pisswater prince could have had them. Pale blond hair may pass for silver-gold if there is very little left and it's covered in blood, but Varys could not have known in advance that Aegon's whole head would be smashed. The pisswater prince plot only makes sense retrospectively, knowing that the baby presented by Tywin was not recognizable as Aegon. It seems more likely that Varys cooked up this plot after the real Aegon had died to exploit the shred of doubt that the corpse's condition had created.

Vary's goal is for the good of the realm. He & Illyrio have created Aegon to be this perfect leader through his upbringing. I agree that it is very odd that he didn't object to Dany being murdered it doesn't make much sense. I don't think Vary's cares which family sit on the throne once it is a proper leader.

intellectual dosser

Mr Freeze wrote: »

From:
http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Aegon_Targaryen
http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Aegon_Targaryen/Theories

I'm not sure, I think it would be easy for Martin to fill the gaps and join the dots there.

I'm trying to research my theory above on the ASOIAF wiki and it says this about Danaerys confronting Jorah about his informing:

After Meereen is taken Dany confronts Jorah in the Great Pyramid with regard to his spying on her on behalf of Varys. He confesses that he took the eunuch's gold and learned some ciphers and wrote some letters. He admits to her that that he suspected that the wine intended for her in Vaes Dothrak had been poisoned after reading a letter from Varys brought there by caravan. He tells her that Varys wanted her watched, but not harmed. Dany banishes Ser Jorah for his betrayal - which means that Varys lost an excellent means of gathering intelligence on her.

I'm not sure, I'm confusing myself here.

Paddy Cow

I can't remember the exact story of Aegon. Can someone tell me please what story Vary's is spinning to have people believe that the dead baby wasn't Aegon and how they managed to escape with him? Thanks.

Mr Freeze

Paddy Cow wrote: »

I can't remember the exact story of Aegon. Can someone tell me please what story Vary's is spinning to have people believe that the dead baby wasn't Aegon and how they managed to escape with him? Thanks.

From
http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Aegon_Targaryen

Aboard the Shy Maid a young man claiming to be Aegon explains his apparent survival to Tyrion Lannister. According to his account, the infant killed during the Sack of King's Landing was a tanner's infant son born at the Pisswater Bend, a street of King's Landing.

The child's mother had died at birth. The tanner sold his boy to Varys for a jug of Arbor gold wine. Varys then arranged the swap between the two infants. Elia received the tanner's son (whom Tyrion dubs the pisswater prince), while Varys took custody of the real Prince Aegon.

Tyrion Lannister deduces the rest of the story. Once the impostor infant was "safely dead", Varys smuggled the genuine Aegon Targaryen across the narrow sea. Varys first entrusted the boy to Illyrio Mopatis and eventually found an adoptive father for Aegon in the person of exiled Lord Jon Connington. Aegon does not comment on Tyrion's deductions.

Paddy Cow

Mr Freeze wrote: »

From
http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Aegon_Targaryen

Thanks for that. It's definitely plausible.

Mr Freeze

Paddy Cow wrote: »

Thanks for that. It's definitely plausible.

Except for how did Varys know that Aegon/Pisswater prince would get his head caved in, and be unrecognisable before The Mountain committed the act.

I am subscribing to the theory that Varys came up with the plot after the real Aegon was killed, and the body was unrecognisable, he saw a chance to pretend that Aegon had been switched, and went with it.

Where he got this fake Aegon from is anyone's guess.

intellectual dosser

Mr Freeze wrote: »

Except for how did Varys know that Aegon/Pisswater prince would get his head caved in, and be unrecognisable before The Mountain committed the act.

I am subscribing to the theory that Varys came up with the plot after the real Aegon was killed, and the body was unrecognisable, he saw a chance to pretend that Aegon had been switched, and went with it.

Where he got this fake Aegon from is anyone's guess.

If Aegon truly is a fraud then Varys wouldnt have had to rush about replacing the child. He could have done it weeks later. What about Lyanna - what if she had twins and Aegon is Jon Snow's brother?

On that topic - has Martin all but confirmed that Jon Snow is the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna?

Paddy Cow

Mr Freeze wrote: »

Except for how did Varys know that Aegon/Pisswater prince would get his head caved in, and be unrecognisable before The Mountain committed the act.

I am subscribing to the theory that Varys came up with the plot after the real Aegon was killed, and the body was unrecognisable, he saw a chance to pretend that Aegon had been switched, and went with it.

Where he got this fake Aegon from is anyone's guess.

He wouldn't have to. Most babies look the same and as long as the general features such as hair colour are the same, it would probably pass. I mean, would Tywin even know that the baby was supposed to look like? It's not like they had DNA sampling back then!

Mr Freeze

intellectual dosser wrote: »

If Aegon truly is a fraud then Varys wouldnt have had to rush about replacing the child. He could have done it weeks later. What about Lyanna - what if she had twins and Aegon is Jon Snow's brother?

We don't know if he rushed or not, he would have to have done it fairly soon to fool people.

Ya, thats the first time I heard that Jon Snow and Aegon brothers thing, I wouldn't believe that one at all.

On that topic - has Martin all but confirmed that Jon Snow is the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna?

Not confirmed.

intellectual dosser

Mr Freeze wrote: »

We don't know if he rushed or not, he would have to have done it fairly soon to fool people.

Ya, thats the first time I heard that Jon Snow and Aegon brothers thing, I wouldn't believe that one at all.

Yeah it's a bit too far to reach.

I have to say that Varys is a cool character and his every word is well calculated. I don't think he would have told a dying Ser Kevan about Aegon if wasn't telling the truth.