Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

Deank

leahyl wrote: »

And kept moving west...!

Yup, north west

whitebriar

mothel wrote: »

No upgrade in Gerry's forecast? "becoming much colder and brighter on Sunday"

Nothing unusual there.
If today's models verify and Gerry is still on duty on Sunday, his forecast tonight and on Sunday will be chalk and cheese.
That's another thing we've learned about Gerry.He delivers an assessment which he's usually not in a hurry to re do 2 days out,never mind four.
He more than likely will change that assessment radically by Sunday unless there's monumental model turnarounds.
As it stands,the atmosphere the models tell us will mean precip is snow or hail,so the term a few wintry showers is ridiculous tbh.
I do think its wrong of met.ie not to use percentage risks when the outcome at this stage does look like snow.
But there you go.

Calibos

I'm actually glad that in the end its come to this. Potential for more than a dusting to mess about in but short lived so no massive effect on business or heating bills like a month long 2010 type event. In our case the loss in earnings in passing trade from the older folks afraid to come out will be offset by the increase in passing trade from all the walkers and kids coming down to enjoy the snow on the promenade/beach. In 2010 we got 2 days of increased kids and walkers before they got their fill/ got bored of it but lost 4 weeks of custom from the older folks which is a big part of our business. Surely everyone wins except the extremophiles if this comes off as described.

lucernarian

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Yeah the Meto have obviously picked up the fact that the overhang from the low pressure to our South will prevent any convection. Interesting one hadn't thought of that.
I still think we will get snow Sunday night with uppers so cold, but nothing is certain yet!
Roll on the 18z

I don't understand this: how will the "overhang" from the low pressure to the south prevent any convection?

patneve2

Low pressure further north on 18z gfs, tighter squeeze. interesting times

whitebriar

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I don't understand this: how will the "overhang" from the low pressure to the south prevent any convection?

If there's a front it would.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

patneve2 wrote: »

Low pressure further north on 18z gfs, tighter squeeze. interesting times

Yep, those precip charts looking more pink !

lucernarian

whitebriar wrote: »

Nothing unusual there.
If today's models verify and Gerry is still on duty on Sunday, his forecast tonight and on Sunday will be chalk and cheese.
That's another thing we've learned about Gerry.He delivers an assessment which he's usually not in a hurry to re do 2 days out,never mind four.
He more than likely will change that assessment radically by Sunday unless there's monumental model turnarounds.
As it stands,the atmosphere the models tell us will mean precip is snow or hail,so the term a few wintry showers is ridiculous tbh.
I do think its wrong of met.ie not to use percentage risks when the outcome at this stage does look like snow.
But there you go.

The problem is that graupel is not the same as hail which is not the same as snow, so I think wintry showers is a perfectly appropriate term in this instance when the nature of precipitation is hard to define. Some variables are more conducive to showers than others on Monday but the CAPE forecasts are not particularly impressive.

Not expressing the uncertainty that does exist over amounts of "frozen precipitation" is more a matter of presentation style and it's not a serious issue.

ninebeanrows

Alarm Bells ringing in southeast England.

Snow Blizzard alarms ringing in Ireland!

dacogawa

Happy enough with this so far

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013030718/gfs-1-90.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013030718/gfs-1-102.png?18

ninebeanrows

midday temps March 11th!

ninebeanrows

If the 18z came off Cheltenham would probably be under half a foot of snow Tuesday morning

dopolahpec

18z shows more precipitation but have a look at the spread of uppers during Sunday/Monday. -10s in far north but a balmy 0 in Cork. Surely this may mean a division of rain/sleet/snow as you progress north?

Edit: by t90 hours we are all laughing anyway

Verdict: major upgrade for snow

Deank

Weathercheck wrote: »

If the 18z came off Cheltenham would probably be under half a foot of snow Tuesday morning

More frozen equines so:pac:

red_bairn

Deank wrote: »

More frozen equines so:pac:

Stored away for Aldi - Oops!

snowstorm445

In addition to the snow temperatures are looking low, down to -7C in some rural areas in the midlands and south on Monday night into Tuesday!

snowstorm445

Not the best of runs for the south coast though. The uppers are far to high during Sunday night and into Monday meaning precipitation will likely fall as rain.

Weathering

Weathercheck wrote: »

If the 18z came off Cheltenham would probably be under half a foot of snow Tuesday morning

Lol they"ll be some crying in the bookies
Go on u good...fck

dopolahpec

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Not the best of runs for the south coast though. The uppers are far to high during Sunday night and into Monday meaning precipitation will likely fall as rain.

True and it wouldn't take much to have those less cold uppers move even farther north.

Musicman2000

dopolahpec wrote: »

True and it wouldn't take much to have those less cold uppers move even farther north.

Are we looking at the same Charts?

JanuarySnowstor

dopolahpec wrote: »

True and it wouldn't take much to have those less cold uppers move even farther north.

The further North the better as they are always going to slide South
The 18z throws up another variation but in general I think it's an upgrade.

BTW I thought Gerry's forecast this evening was pathetically inaccurate but of course time will tell. The odd wintry shower..........let's see

M.T. Cranium

Sometimes the 18z GFS is off on a bender and in any case, the 12z GFS was already trending further north with that low than most of the guidance. But on the face of it, the uppers would support snow everywhere but maybe Sherkin Island and the very outer coast, the cold air would be banked up so deep across the rest of the country that it would probably be 0/0 S+ at Cork and something like -1/-2 S+ at Shannon and Casement by midnight Sunday ... if that map verified. However, if it's too far north then we're in the same good place we were in before, much colder air slightly unstable rushing into the country across open water ... can't ask for much better, except for the short duration but it's not so short that the event can't generate itself.

This will evolve into something big, I'm pretty certain, there's a couple of factors in play that aren't available to the models or the competition, and those are very conducive to streamer formation. My lips are sealed, but I feel very optimistic that streamers will be quick to develop anywhere "behind" the push of the -8 C upper contour and that comes south on Sunday afternoon or at very worst evening. It gives all day Monday (midnight to midnight) for streamer development.

As I hinted in my forecast update, there could be some blizzard-like streamers and probably two of these in play (the IOM shadow if it happens would likely be cast a little to south of Dublin Bay but these two streamers could converge due to different generating wind vectors). If the "slider low" to the south gets heavily involved, then these streamers will turn into enhanced snowfall zones in a nearly country-wide snowstorm. There's no way this would mix except on outer south coast, too cold.

Can't wait for 00z runs, this whole scenario has been constantly upgrading on the large scale (never bought the -14 uppers, I think -12 must be the lower limit for Ireland at this time of year). Just looking at those lows spinning around in circles over the central Atlantic and the recent 1077 mb Greenland high, these are massive synoptics and even the winter of 2012-13 should be able to make something out of this recipe (after a few dodgy efforts in the kitchen earlier on).

dacogawa

Yeah doubters, what ^ said

mickger844posts

Fantastic set of runs today. IMBY pretty much the dream scenario for decent snowfall but a lot will see the white stuff if these runs verify. We await the 0Z runs with great expectation and excitement.

Geomy

Will there be any chance of Co Clare getting some snow ?

bb1234567

Geomy wrote: »

Will there be any chance of Co Clare getting some snow ?

MT says the whole country will get snow bar the costal fringes of the south. But thats just his opinion dont take it for gospel.

delw

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This will evolve into something big, I'm pretty certain, there's a couple of factors in play that aren't available to the models or the competition, and those are very conducive to streamer formation. My lips are sealed, but I feel very optimistic that streamers will be quick to develop anywhere "behind" the push of the -8 C upper contour and that comes south on Sunday afternoon or at very worst evening. It gives all day Monday (midnight to midnight) for streamer development.

As I hinted in my forecast update, there could be some blizzard-like streamers and probably two of these in play (the IOM shadow if it happens would likely be cast a little to south of Dublin Bay but these two streamers could converge due to different generating wind vectors). If the "slider low" to the south gets heavily involved, then these streamers will turn into enhanced snowfall zones in a nearly country-wide snowstorm. There's no way this would mix except on outer south coast, too cold.

People take note,this is how to ramp
Cheers MT

maquiladora

The pub run does have more precip than previous runs. But we'd need to see that appear on more runs & on the other models before taking it seriously.

vicwatson

bb1234567 wrote: »

MT says the whole country will get snow bar the costal fringes of the south. But thats just his opinion dont take it for gospel.

No he didn't...

He said...

If the "slider low" to the south gets heavily involved, then these streamers will turn into enhanced snowfall zones in a nearly country-wide snowstorm.

H2UMrsRobinson

Nope - I'm STILL not playing.