Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

Oscar Bravo

A 2307 upate from Met Eireann:
Headline : Very cold at first with severe frost at night and a risk of wintry showers, a little less cold from midweek onwards and drier, but still frost at night.

Saturday night: Becoming cold in the northern half of the country with a sharp frost developing, staying milder further south with outbreaks of rain. Breezy with moderate to fresh easterly winds.

Sunday: Becoming very cold everywhere with temperatures falling to low single figures as the day goes on. Many places will be fairly dry and bright, but scattered showers will affect eastern coastal areas and these could turn wintry later. Rain might linger for a time near south coasts as well. Widespread severe frost will develop on Sunday night.

Monday: Extremely cold with temperatures a few degrees above freezing at best in stiff northeast winds. Many places dry and bright, but a few wintry showers are likely in the east and north. Severe frost again at night.

Tuesday: Still very cold and mainly dry, but probably becoming a bit less cold in the north with occasional showers. Winds turning northerly and easing.

Further outlook: Looking less cold everywhere, but temperatures still below normal for this time of year with widespread frost at night. Mainly dry at first, increasing risk of rain later

Saganist

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

A 2307 upate from Met Eireann:
Headline : Very cold at first with severe frost at night and a risk of wintry showers, a little less cold from midweek onwards and drier, but still frost at night.

Saturday night: Becoming cold in the northern half of the country with a sharp frost developing, staying milder further south with outbreaks of rain. Breezy with moderate to fresh easterly winds.

Sunday: Becoming very cold everywhere with temperatures falling to low single figures as the day goes on. Many places will be fairly dry and bright, but scattered showers will affect eastern coastal areas and these could turn wintry later. Rain might linger for a time near south coasts as well. Widespread severe frost will develop on Sunday night.

Monday: Extremely cold with temperatures a few degrees above freezing at best in stiff northeast winds. Many places dry and bright, but a few wintry showers are likely in the east and north. Severe frost again at night.

Tuesday: Still very cold and mainly dry, but probably becoming a bit less cold in the north with occasional showers. Winds turning northerly and easing.

Further outlook: Looking less cold everywhere, but temperatures still below normal for this time of year with widespread frost at night. Mainly dry at first, increasing risk of rain later

WOW.

MidMan25

Tropheus

Looks like I won't have to break out the Huskies.

Not the real Gerald Fleming

A Reserved Met Eireann outlook. We may get little or no snow from this cold snap. A few Hail or sleet showers with snow over the mountains perhaps. time will tell, tomorrows 0z should be interesting though:)

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

Wicklow Weather

Jazus it would be catastrophic of this was to fall apart now. The Daily Express have just jumped on board so thats the event jinxed. Expect a total turn around now. Sunny, mild, heatwave dust off the BBQ.

pistolpetes11

Bit of a dilema here for the baul Pistol , Ive been good and showed a lot of Patience this year waiting on my fix , no toys were thrown , no weather warnings were given to F&F on all our previous false dawns ,

Now here I find myself bearing down the barrel of proper wintry blast , a last hurrah ..............................................

And her indoors in due next week !!!

Dont know if I want this cold spell to happen or not :eek::eek::eek:

Newbridge to the Coombe could be tricky in a Blizzard :pac::pac::pac::pac:

Rougies

The late evening met.ie forecast is written by the forecaster that was on duty for the 9 o'clock TV forecast. So the latest update was written by Gerry Murphy and will rarely deviate much from his 9 o'clock news forecast.

The afternoon met.ie website update is written by whoever is on duty for the 6 o'clock news ... usually the same forecaster.

So whoever is on duty does the afternoon website forecast, the 6 news, 9 news and the late website forecast.

EDIT: This is not fact and could easily be completely false. But I can usually tell who's going to be presenting the evening news forecasts going by the afternoon update. Especially if it's Siobhan Ryan, she's very easy to detect

Redsunset

Only getting back online and loved reading through the thread. This baby seems to be coming like a freight train. Fingers crossed.

Someone suggested that the Watch should be changed to an event.

Well it is still only a watch The Evolution of this little beauty.

Turning very cold with snow showers still holds true until we get near a more certain Hi Res picture of what to champion.

Until then sit back and just enjoy the potential amazingness of the Evolution.

dacogawa

Redsunset wrote: »

Someone suggested that the Watch should be changed to an event.

Fine with 'event' closer to the time but someone else suggested another 'ramping' thread. No to ramping thread! when it started the models never worked out, as soon as it was closed this came along...

Say No to ramping thread, besides the people are angry over there

Oneiric 3

While still relatively favourable for some wintry showers on Sunday eve/Monday on the 18z, it still is a fairly big downgrade from the 12z. Td 12z - 18z comparison for Monday noon, a roughly 3/4 degree difference.




One thing that might be of concern is that although 850 temps are progged to be quite low, troughing at the 500 hPa level is not all that deep and this could serve to cap, or at least modify, any potential vigorous convection over the Irish Sea. This is of course is based only on the current runs and there is nothing to say that significant upgrades won't occur in later runs!

Redsunset

Say No to Ramping Trolling thread you mean because that is what it turned into. I was away and missed it live but rest assured, many a long vacation will be given if it happens again.

Any way off topic.

Cold Wave powers up the Snow machine.

Choo Choo I can almost hear it coming down the tracks...

mothel

Damn big downgrades :0(

dacogawa

mothel wrote: »

Damn big downgrades :0(

Where please ? The nogaps is the only chart I can see updating at the moment & it looks along the lines of the big 2

mothel

dacogawa wrote: »

Where please ? The nogaps is the only chart I can see updating at the moment & it looks along the lines of the big 2

While still relatively favourable for some wintry showers on Sunday eve/Monday on the 18z, it still is a fairly big downgrade from the 12z. Td 12z - 18z comparison for Monday noon, a roughly 3/4 degree difference.

What he said, hopefully not true?

mothel

dacogawa wrote: »

Where please ? The nogaps is the only chart I can see updating at the moment & it looks along the lines of the big 2

Sorry, was responding to last from Oneiric 3 hope they are wrong?

Redsunset

The 18z is not really plausible as only one member from the 50 Ecm ensemble shows something similar. Discard it for now.

M.T. Cranium

That map comparison is for dewpoints, not 850 mb temps, and therefore it is not a downgrade but an upgrade since it actually shows more saturated boundary layer conditions. If there's moisture and dew points of -4 to -6 that ain't gonna be rain or sleet.

Strong ESE winds at Faeroes at 03z especially above the surface, the conveyor belt is starting up.

pistolpetes11

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

That map comparison is for dewpoints, not 850 mb temps, and therefore it is not a downgrade but an upgrade since it actually shows more saturated boundary layer conditions. If there's moisture and dew points of -4 to -6 that ain't gonna be rain or sleet.

Strong ESE winds at Faeroes at 03z especially above the surface, the conveyor belt is starting up.

I can sense an epic update from you in the morning ,

Be quite apt if her indoors was to pop during a blizzard !

M.T. Cranium

Redsunset, weathercheck, step away from the GFS controls and put down your weapons, act now and there won't be any trouble.

cherryghost

0z run gives an upgrade to the south for snowy conditions, pushing inland into perhaps as far north as South Tipp. Business as usual for the rest of the country though. I said a few days ago I'd be banking on Thursday evenings charts and I have. Great coincidence too as I'm off work Monday

Redsunset

Holy God we're going to be buried if these latest charts verify. 00z Gfs I'm speechless again.
00zUKMO is super too. No words i tell you.

cherryghost

The cold reload looks like an upgrade too! Is a white Paddy's day on the cards?!

M.T. Cranium

This wouldn't be just over-running snow, it will be an explosive combination of that plus sea effect, the gradient and -12 C uppers will take care of that. In fact this output so far (GFS, GME and UK) more or less on same page although GFS has the low closer than GME and it's closer than UK ... so a range of outcomes by fine tuning, the big picture is snow and wind. If the GFS were exactly right, I would imagine this could be a blizzard of epic proportions. The UK is a bit more sedate, like 10-20 cm snow in south and local 5-15 cm east, 3-7 cm north. All these early views are suggesting snow could even cover normally barren far west with at least a light covering, although some place is always going to miss out.

I will of course wait for King Euro to speak on this subject, and also the GEM will be worth a look as so much of this pattern is controlled from the retrograde features now in Canada. The one thing is, of course, we (who would like to see snow, that is) don't want to see this low pushing any further north, but I think GFS is leading a bit too strongly, GME may be closer to reality. That said, the GFS has about 100 miles of further northward drift left to use up before the rain-snow line gets seriously into the south coast.

Redsunset

Has Spring 2013 felt sorry for us and decided to give us what Winter refused?

ninebeanrows

Jasus us Junkies are up alright, my body clock auto wakes up at this time during times of model interest, not alarm needed!

GFS 0z extremely good, lots of Ireland including CORK going to see SIG accums if were to come off!

UKM has the low a bit further south but it has been well behind the GFS of late and constantly playing catch up.

And heck, not bad chart at 72 hours?

cherryghost

MT, without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?

Redsunset

Please ECM, be kind to us snow starved folk. Oh how I wish these were tomorrow charts.

M.T. Cranium

GEM very similar to GFS, major snowstorm potential all of southern Britain also, Cornwall-Devon could be isolated from world, or world isolated from them, for days (ESE 60-90 mph gradient there, more like 40-60 mph south coast Ireland).

So all four reliable models have bitter cold running into Atlantic moisture and strong E to NE gradients. Unless the ECM shows a heat wave ... this is very close to reliable time now, the low in question has made the turn for home (just looking at satellite loops) and clearly the Greenland high has connected through to the Siberian, so it's all systems go here.

After the season of near misses and half-strength events, I hope the people are ready for the real thing, because this looks like it.