Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

Saganist

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow..

Deank

Redsunset wrote: »

You just can't please them all I guess. Roll on the short sharp blast WHOO HOO

I know is still a little away but how far inland will the showers make it, specifically asking about my back garden in North Kildare?

Youneckfreak

I'm in west Waterford, we never get any.

JanuarySnowstor

Indeed, if the gfs is right a spell of rain over the South will turn readily to snow Sunday night and give quite heavy falls over places such as Cork. Lots can and will change but that's what's showing at the moment

Youneckfreak

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Indeed, if the gfs is right a spell of rain over the South will turn readily to snow Sunday night and give quite heavy falls over places such as Cork. Lots can and will change but that's what's showing at the moment

How about Waterford? I'm on east cork west Waterford boarder.

Iancar29

Youneckfreak wrote: »

How about Waterford? I'm on east cork west Waterford boarder.

Seriously pal , calm down with the constant questions. No one can give you a perfect answer this far out. Just wait until Saturday night at least and enjoy it while it lasts.

Speak Now

Redsunset wrote: »

You just can't please them all I guess. Roll on the short sharp blast WHOO HOO

If it snowed in May people would still complain when it melted

Speak Now

Iancar29 wrote: »

Seriously pal , calm down with the constant questions. No one can give you a perfect answer this far out. Just wait until Saturday night at least and enjoy it while it lasts.

He wont be enjoying if it snows, do you not remember the ramping thread tantrums

lucernarian

The 12z output has appreciably increased the chances of a severe wintry outbreak on Monday. It is an upgrade for cold-lovers in every way. Indeed some aspects of the synoptics are better than were the case at the end of November 2010 so thundersnow should be seen in some parts of the country, especially while the LP system is not that far off the south coast.

aboyro

expecting decent surf and snow on monday down here. i'm still clinging onto snow sessions from 1978,1982,1991 and 2010. so to say i've got a little bit of a "snow horn" on at the moment is an understament.:D:D:D:D

Iancar29

Only a matter of time....:rolleyes:

lucernarian

ECM 12z also appears to have shifted the HP slightly further north as of next Monday, leading to slightly more artic-like temperatures but more importantly lower atmospheric pressure, perfect for convection and instability in such a polar airstream.

Mr Cumulonimbus

12Z ECM at +96. -10 uppers everywhere. Nice.

JanuarySnowstor

Re the Waterford question, yes you are right in the firing line Sunday night into Monday

ECM in the short term is a slight upgrade.
Indeed all of the evening runs keep the high pressure further North helping convection.
It's coming folks, let's just hope we get at least 48hours fun

TheMilkyPirate

ECM at 96hrs is a nice upgrade from the 00z

patneve2

Synoptic situation that could deliver appreciable totals to Waterford and Cork if the LP system is close enough (Sunday evening-->night). Will end up as a nowcast obviously. Monday now looks even better than previous guidance for beefy streamers on E and SE coasts, although the strong winds worry me as they usually aren't good for the extreme coastal margins.

ninebeanrows

The charts for Sunday ,Monday are extremely impressive, the depth of cold is up there with famous incursions and very rare for even -10c 850hPa temps to cover Ireland, nevermind the -12/13 possible in the east,

Lets enjoy it!!

ninebeanrows

patneve2 wrote: »

Synoptic situation that could deliver appreciable totals to Waterford and Cork if the LP system is close enough (Sunday evening-->night). Will end up as a nowcast obviously. Monday now looks even better than previous guidance for beefy streamers on E and SE coasts, although the strong winds worry me as they usually aren't good for the extreme coastal margins.

I don't see any marginality, this is frigid cold, check out the dewpoints progged!

patneve2

Weathercheck wrote: »

I don't see any marginality, this is frigid cold, check out the dewpoints progged!

its not about marginality but about the wind messing with the showers. Sometimes lower winds help the showers consolidate more, but at this stage I already don't know what I'm talking about

JanuarySnowstor

patneve2 wrote: »

its not about marginality but about the wind messing with the showers. Sometimes lower winds help the showers consolidate more, but at this stage I already don't know what I'm talking about

I would have to argue that stronger winds mean more convection and the showers being more widespread
As WC said there is no marginality such is the upper cold and dewpoints it would snow on the beach!!

JanuarySnowstor

Looks messy by Thursday as any useful cold evaporates
We really do need deep cold at this time of year.
To summarise, cold and snowy Sunday night into Monday for East and South.
Icy start to Tuesday and feeling cold though mainly dry.
A decent 48hour event that will deliver for some

Super hoop

How far north(along the east coast) will this snow hit?

lucernarian

patneve2 wrote: »

its not about marginality but about the wind messing with the showers. Sometimes lower winds help the showers consolidate more, but at this stage I already don't know what I'm talking about

A legitimate concern in my opinion! So far there I've seen mixed signals relating to wind direction and shear at higher atmospheric levels but that may lead to prolonged spells of lighter snow if worst came to worst.

dopolahpec

Much happier with what the models are showing this afternoon. Significant upgrades on the early morning runs. Much snowier looking. Hope it holds firm now as we move within 72 hours. Those tightly packed isobars on the GFS in particular look sweet indeed for a good showery feed.

ninebeanrows

I'm looking forward to ,'perhaps a few wintry showers on high ground', sometimes I despair at them

mothel

RTE's forecast quite underwhelming?!

Speak Now

mothel wrote: »

RTE's forecast quite underwhelming?!

That forecast will not have taken latest ECM into account yet not that the 0z was bad either. Expect them to "ramp" tomorrow if the ECM holds up over night. Will be inside T72 at that stage.

patneve2

met e being cautious and quite wise to do so. They will probably call it tomorrow eve if charts stay the same.

I am interested by the recent model runs shifting the low into a slightly more favourable position. Can we get further slight upgrades that show a further lowering heights?

ninebeanrows

One for the favourites folder and @96hrs. Yumm Yumm..!

Wintry showers on high ground? Yea........... right.

Deank

Check out MT's ramp on the daily forecast form, tis beautiful so it is.:D

UPDATE _ Thursday 7 March 2013 _ 1930h
_______________________________________

There has been a slight upgrade in the model consensus for the potential of significant snowfalls Sunday night and Monday and the chances are probably at least 70% for accumulations (in the range of 5-15 cm mainly) over large parts of Ulster and Leinster, accompanied by gusty northeast winds in the range of 50-80 km/hr and bitterly cold temperatures falling to about -1 C.

This could even produce blizzards in some areas, including Meath, Dublin and Wicklow.

The chances for the south coast are also fairly high and part of the potential there would be interaction between the cold air mass and the low off to the south, but also the activity from Leinster could spill over into parts of Munster as the winds will be strong enough to advect the snow possibly as far as Limerick to Cork, more definitely as far as Tipps and Waterford.

The northwest is also included in the snow-watch as wind directions there will be fairly close to an ideal NNE by later Monday especially, so in fact the only regions less likely to see snow would probably be around Galway Bay and Kerry-coastal Clare. And these areas could see passing snow showers by Tuesday as winds come around to a more favourable (for them) NW direction.

The rest of the week then looks more settled and continuing rather cold although the days will warm up somewhat under the strong March sun to values around 5-7 C. The following weekend still looks cold and wet with the potential for rain to turn to snow as a reinforcement of arctic air begins to develop during the passage of the storm system currently affecting New England but centered well off to the south (almost due north of Bermuda now). That situation is far from settled at this stage and if the colder air "digs in" during the week to come, that storm might have a hard time lifting enough warm air to change the temperature enough to prevent another snowfall, but in the meantime, I have growing confidence in the outlook for a near-blizzard situation developing Sunday night and persisting through most of Monday, with the focus of heaviest snow likely to shift south during the day although it may begin with two separate events in east Ulster and south coast then begin to merge the two, so those details are yet to be totally worked out.

We should stress the volatile nature of the situation as much colder air will be rushing into the region and this is a more explosive pattern than anything seen earlier in the recent winter season. There could be thunder with some of the hail and snow during the transition later Sunday and a continuing potential for thunder-snow in streamers on Monday. However, there will likely be breaks between bursts of snow and even some bright sunshine at times on Monday. Travel may become difficult in Leinster and Ulster as well as some parts of the south. The impacts will likely be less severe in the west but it will become bitterly cold everywhere -- even the normally temperate outer coasts of Kerry could see a bit of snow from this.