Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

derekon

maquiladora wrote: »

Well it looks like the cold snap is pretty much nailed now. Not as extreme as the models were previously showing (that -14 air reaching the west coast is gone) but a period of -10 to -12 uppers looks more likely than not now.

But what people are really interested in is snow. To me, it looks like it will be fairly dry in most places during that spell of colder air, eastern and southern coastal counties most likely places to see some snow. I'd guess a couple of cm in some places, and not much more than a dusting elsewhere.

If you are expecting a major snow event from this, I'd like to see the precip charts on the models you're looking at. :P

If this had been in the middle of winter, with proper blocking and something a bit longer than just a snap then it could have been really interesting. But thats life!

Now there is a man speaking sense :cool:

D

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

If you are expecting a major snow event from this, I'd like to see the precip charts on the models you're looking at. :P

I don't think anybody is expecting anything major. In saying that, we know the mesoscale models don't handle convection well so we're looking at the very favorable ingredients that could deliver something major, although indeed unfortunately short lived.

derekon

BBC Weather just now confirmed a change to much colder weather from Sunday. However no disruptive snow anticipated.

Health warning folks, thinks twice before telling family and friends it will snow. It usually doesn't.

D

Deank

leahyl wrote: »

Oh you guys :-D ye make things so exciting :-P

Welcome back, you took your time...

Speak Now

Any chance of ramping thread re opening so we could keep some sensible possible event discussion here? If i see one more bunny pic I'll go hopping nuts....

Derek - MT is only saying what the models are currently showing. Met Eireann are sensibly being cautious until nearer the possible event.

Gibby gives a UK forecast, they Dont have our Irish Sea snow making machine ;-)

If current charts materialise its gonna be interesting to see what kinda daytime minima they bring on Monday if nothing else.

Potentially an exciting event to bring us into spring!

aboyro

maquiladora wrote: »

Well it looks like the cold snap is pretty much nailed now. Not as extreme as the models were previously showing (that -14 air reaching the west coast is gone) but a period of -10 to -12 uppers looks more likely than not now.

But what people are really interested in is snow. To me, it looks like it will be fairly dry in most places during that spell of colder air, eastern and southern coastal counties most likely places to see some snow. I'd guess a couple of cm in some places, and not much more than a dusting elsewhere.

If you are expecting a major snow event from this, I'd like to see the precip charts on the models you're looking at. :P

If this had been in the middle of winter, with proper blocking and something a bit longer than just a snap then it could have been really interesting. But thats life!

but sure we'll take it any maq, its all good. nice cold snap and a bit of sneachta for the kids, feckin brill

Deank

Rougies wrote: »

I don't think anybody is expecting anything major. In saying that, we know the mesoscale models don't handle convection well so we're looking at the very favorable ingredients that could deliver something major, although indeed unfortunately short lived.

But the Irish Sea could deliver some sweet streamers from this event if so that can't really be forecast it's more a case of watching the radar and hopefully see them coming in thick and fast.

Speak Now

derekon wrote: »

BBC Weather just now confirmed a change to much colder weather from Sunday. However no disruptive snow anticipated.

Health warning folks, thinks twice before telling family and friends it will snow. It usually doesn't.

D

Yer some man for the health warnings Derek!!!!!

pad199207

Going to be a cold week alright with some decent frosts, might get a dusting of Graupel on Sun, Mon here! It looks a bit too dry for any significant snow

Rougies

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Any chance of ramping thread re opening so we could keep some sensible possible event discussion here? If i see one more bunny pic I'll go hopping nuts....

Use the Model/Technical Discussion Only thread then?

Deank wrote: »

But the Irish Sea could deliver some sweet streamers from this event if so that can't really be forecast it's more a case of watching the radar and hopefully see them coming in thick and fast.

Yeah, that's what I meant.

Deank

Rougies wrote: »

Use the Model/Technical Discussion Only thread then?




Yeah, that's what I meant.

Thought that's what you meant alright, Jerry must be having an off day, he usually likes a ramp too, it;s gonna be a fun few days watching this develop.

derekon

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Any chance of ramping thread re opening so we could keep some sensible possible event discussion here? If i see one more bunny pic I'll go hopping nuts....

Derek - MT is only saying what the models are currently showing. Met Eireann are sensibly being cautious until nearer the possible event.

Gibby gives a UK forecast, they Dont have our Irish Sea snow making machine ;-)

If current charts materialise its gonna be interesting to see what kinda daytime minima they bring on Monday if nothing else.

Potentially an exciting event to bring us into spring!

Fair point Jerry, I had forgotten about the IRISH SEA

In either case an interesting few days ahead.

D

weatherfiend

OMG!!!! Had two eye ops and haven't been able to read most of this stuff for the last two weeks and then I log on to this?? Was already planning to put away the winter woollies but I was wondering why I was feeling chilly for the last few days. Great to have a last bit of fun before we go "mild and summer-searching". Promise I'll post pics for sandyford / stepaside / three rock!

JanuarySnowstor

Yeah the Meto have obviously picked up the fact that the overhang from the low pressure to our South will prevent any convection. Interesting one hadn't thought of that.
I still think we will get snow Sunday night with uppers so cold, but nothing is certain yet!
Roll on the 18z

snowstorm445

leahyl wrote: »

Oh you guys :-D ye make things so exciting :-P

Don't worry! The Cork Snow Shield should be well up and running come Sunday night! :P

Speak Now

Rougies wrote: »

Use the Model/Technical Discussion Only thread then?

JanuarySnowstor, Maq, Weathercheck and MT are all posting their thinkings on here. Nothing to follow over there at present.

ninebeanrows

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Yeah the Meto have obviously picked up the fact that the overhang from the low pressure to our South will prevent any convection. Interesting one hadn't thought of that.
I still think we will get snow Sunday night with uppers so cold, but nothing is certain yet!
Roll on the 18z

I don't think anybody can accurately predict the amount of precipitation but history tells us the Irish Sea can deliver upto 10mm to coastal areas quite readily even in conditions that aren't as positive as this.

So i do think its quite likely some areas will receive 10-15cm of lying snow, others maybe 3-5cm.

Again the south may see a more prolonged period of snow from the low pressure system.

These are just brush stroke estimates.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

The oul snow graphic was out for Sunday there over my house ha

aboyro

This is bad!!!!!!!!!!!! One of the kids just point at gerry murphy and said "make the bad man go away dad""

scary stuff i'll tell ya:eek:

mothel

No upgrade in Gerry's forecast? "becoming much colder and brighter on Sunday"

Deank

t|nt|n wrote: »

The oul snow graphic was out for Sunday there over my house ha

Which site did you use for the snow chart?

Rougies

Fair enough forecast from Gerry there I thought.

Remember "a few wintry showers" can turn out meaning very different things.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Deank wrote: »

Which site did you use for the snow chart?

I meant on the Met Eireann 9pm forecast

Deank

t|nt|n wrote: »

I meant on the Met Eireann 9pm forecast

Ah okay, I've been scouring the charts and seen nothing concrete yet for Sun / Mon

weatherfiend

Rougies wrote: »

Fair enough forecast from Gerry there I thought.

Remember "a few wintry showers" can turn out meaning very different things.

Yeah but he just talked about it much colder on Sunday but didn't mention that his chart was showing full snow showers over the east.

Speak Now

weatherfiend wrote: »

Yeah but he just talked about it much colder on Sunday but didn't mention that his chart was showing full snow showers over the east.

He had temps from 4 in the east to 8 in the south.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Deank wrote: »

Ah okay, I've been scouring the charts and seen nothing concrete yet for Sun / Mon

Really ?

weatherfiend

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

He had temps from 4 in the east to 8 in the south.

Sorry missed that. Was so excited to see the little snow images falling out of the clouds. Phew thought this was gone for another 7 months!

Deank

t|nt|n wrote: »

Really ?

I obviously didn't look hard enough, would be happy if that came off now.

leahyl

Deank wrote: »

I obviously didn't look hard enough, would be happy if that came off now.

And kept moving west...!