Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

dacogawa

M.T. UPDATE _ Thursday 7 March 2013 _ 1930h
_______________________________________

There has been a slight upgrade in the model consensus for the potential of significant snowfalls Sunday night and Monday and the chances are probably at least 70% for accumulations (in the range of 5-15 cm mainly) over large parts of Ulster and Leinster, accompanied by gusty northeast winds in the range of 50-80 km/hr and bitterly cold temperatures falling to about -1 C.

This could even produce blizzards in some areas, including Meath, Dublin and Wicklow.

The chances for the south coast are also fairly high and part of the potential there would be interaction between the cold air mass and the low off to the south, but also the activity from Leinster could spill over into parts of Munster as the winds will be strong enough to advect the snow possibly as far as Limerick to Cork, more definitely as far as Tipps and Waterford.

The northwest is also included in the snow-watch as wind directions there will be fairly close to an ideal NNE by later Monday especially, so in fact the only regions less likely to see snow would probably be around Galway Bay and Kerry-coastal Clare. And these areas could see passing snow showers by Tuesday as winds come around to a more favourable (for them) NW direction.

The rest of the week then looks more settled and continuing rather cold although the days will warm up somewhat under the strong March sun to values around 5-7 C. The following weekend still looks cold and wet with the potential for rain to turn to snow as a reinforcement of arctic air begins to develop during the passage of the storm system currently affecting New England but centered well off to the south (almost due north of Bermuda now). That situation is far from settled at this stage and if the colder air "digs in" during the week to come, that storm might have a hard time lifting enough warm air to change the temperature enough to prevent another snowfall, but in the meantime, I have growing confidence in the outlook for a near-blizzard situation developing Sunday night and persisting through most of Monday, with the focus of heaviest snow likely to shift south during the day although it may begin with two separate events in east Ulster and south coast then begin to merge the two, so those details are yet to be totally worked out.

We should stress the volatile nature of the situation as much colder air will be rushing into the region and this is a more explosive pattern than anything seen earlier in the recent winter season. There could be thunder with some of the hail and snow during the transition later Sunday and a continuing potential for thunder-snow in streamers on Monday. However, there will likely be breaks between bursts of snow and even some bright sunshine at times on Monday. Travel may become difficult in Leinster and Ulster as well as some parts of the south. The impacts will likely be less severe in the west but it will become bitterly cold everywhere -- even the normally temperate outer coasts of Kerry could see a bit of snow from this.

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Deank

^^^^ You beat me to it, I was on mobile and had to crank up the desktop to quote.

dacogawa

Deank wrote: »

^^^^ You beat me to it, I was on mobile and had to crank up the desktop to quote.

Only just... now everyone run for cover, the snow bunnies will mass :eek:

Deank

dacogawa wrote: »

Only just... now everyone run for cover, the snow bunnies will mass :eek:

I think we need to ramp this a bit more to tempt them out, something like this.



and then we'll see this.


and this



and then of course the bunnies will be replaced by the crazy ducks.

:pac::D

H2UMrsRobinson

Ok I'll reserve my ticket now, but I'm not climbing aboard until Saturday morning. It's still 4 days away and I've seen it go pearshaped at less than 24 hours. So can we all just CALM THE FCUK DOWN !

Deank

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

Ok I'll reserve my ticket now, but I'm not climbing aboard until Saturday morning. It's still 4 days away and I've seen it go pearshaped at less than 24 hours. So can we all just CALM THE FCUK DOWN !

No calming down here, this is on, all the models are in agreement, we should be ramping the fu€k out of it and if it doesn't come off so what, symptomatic of the winter just gone, one last ramp and a bit of fun, C'MON;)

dave1982

Rougies

Deank wrote: »

No calming down here, this is on, all the models are in agreement, we should be ramping the fu€k out of it and if it doesn't come off so what, symptomatic of the winter just gone, one last ramp and a bit of fun, C'MON;)

I'm all in. Our chips are running low and we've got a very good hand.

Snow bunny high five!

derekon

I have just read MT's recent post outlining his high confidence for snow for a lot of Ireland on Sunday night into Monday.

Against this I have just watched Gerry Murphy's forecast - he is saying that Sunday and Monday will be cold days with the odd wintry shower.

These forecasts are WORLDS APART.

MT, hats off to you and your forecasts and all due respect but this has not been your year in terms of forecasting snow/cold spells for Ireland. Gerry Murphy and Met Eireann have been on the money all the time.

So I am sticking with Gerry Murphy for the time being and am not buying into the ramping -we have been here so many times during the past winter only to be let down at the last minute.

Unless the charts are saying snow on Saturday evening, I am saying NO TO SNOW!!

.........but will gladly eat my hat if Gerry is wrong and MT is right :eek:

D

Deank

Rougies wrote: »

I'm all in. Our chips are running low and we've got a very good hand.

Snow bunny high five!

This lads chomping at the bit for snow....

Deank

derekon wrote: »

I have just read MT's recent post outlining his high confidence for snow for a lot of Ireland on Sunday night into Monday.

Against this I have just watched Gerry Murphy's forecast - he is saying that Sunday and Monday will be cold days with the odd wintry shower.

These forecasts are WORLDS APART.

MT, hats off to you and your forecasts and all due respect but this has not been your year in terms of forecasting snow/cold spells for Ireland. Gerry Murphy and Met Eireann have been on the money all the time.

So I am sticking with Gerry Murphy for the time being and am not buying into the ramping -we have been here so many times during the past winter only to be let down at the last minute.

Unless the charts are saying snow on Saturday evening, I am saying NO TO SNOW!!

.........but will gladly eat my hat if Gerry is wrong and MT is right :eek:

D

I hope you've have a strong constitution and teeth to get through that hat, although this season has been a let down in terms of snow it has been marginal at best, MT was never very far off with his forecasts.

This latest ramp however is very different, we haven't had all the models in agreement this year like they are now, and if we don't get snow I'll eat a cake.....;):p

irish1967

LuckyLloyd

If this misses it shall really suck. One time for a hold of the current model output!!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Hi-Res models will be interesting tomorrow, the 18z and on

Hopefully they are a sight to behold !

derekon

Deank wrote: »

I hope you've have a strong constitution and teeth to get through that hat, although this season has been a let down in terms of snow it has been marginal at best, MT was never very far off with his forecasts.

This latest ramp however is very different, we haven't had all the models in agreement this year like they are now, and if we don't get snow I'll eat a cake.....;):p

LOL, Deank I truly hope I am wrong! ...........and I hope you are not eating cake and we get lots of snow!

Anyway, I am trying to play Devil's advocate amid the hysteria breaking out on this forum. Here is a summary just posted by Gibby over on NetWeather UK and his synopsis for next week:

In Summary next week looks like it is going to be cold with widespread and sharp night frosts. Snow though is unlikely to be a major problem for many unless the Low pressure shown on the GFS operational materialises through the middle of next week. Far more likely is clear and crisp weather with some sunshine by day but a few snow showers near windward coasts with most areas staying largely dry.

Reality check anyone? :rolleyes:

D

Deank

derekon wrote: »

LOL, Deank I truly hope I am wrong! ...........and I hope you are not eating cake and we get lots of snow!

Anyway, I am trying to play Devil's advocate amid the hysteria breaking out on this forum. Here is a summary just posted by Gibby over on NetWeather UK and his synopsis for next week:

In Summary next week looks like it is going to be cold with widespread and sharp night frosts. Snow though is unlikely to be a major problem for many unless the Low pressure shown on the GFS operational materialises through the middle of next week. Far more likely is clear and crisp weather with some sunshine by day but a few snow showers near windward coasts with most areas staying largely dry.

Reality check anyone? :rolleyes:

D

Reality check in the winter weather forums on boards, hardly, one last ramp for the laugh if nothing comes of it but cold weather and no snow so be it, last ramp of the season is always the best, so let's see this season out in style and ramp it up big time.....;)

Tom Cruises Left Nut

derekon wrote: »

LOL, Deank I truly hope I am wrong! ...........and I hope you are not eating cake and we get lots of snow!

Anyway, I am trying to play Devil's advocate amid the hysteria breaking out on this forum. Here is a summary just posted by Gibby over on NetWeather UK and his synopsis for next week:

In Summary next week looks like it is going to be cold with widespread and sharp night frosts. Snow though is unlikely to be a major problem for many unless the Low pressure shown on the GFS operational materialises through the middle of next week. Far more likely is clear and crisp weather with some sunshine by day but a few snow showers near windward coasts with most areas staying largely dry.

Reality check anyone? :rolleyes:

D

Don't mind that ! ha, just ramp ! :pac:

Daniel2590

Sure that doesn't matter for those of us on the coasts who'll be getting the streamers

Smidge

Can we change the "Watch" to "Event" now?:D

Deank

t|nt|n wrote: »

Don't mind that ! ha, just ramp ! :pac:

Based on the current charts TNT what do reckon the chances of seeing some decent snowfall down our way on Sun thru Mon???

derekon

Deank wrote: »

Reality check in the winter weather forums on boards, hardly, one last ramp for the laugh if nothing comes of it but cold weather and no snow so be it, last ramp of the season is always the best, so let's see this season out in style and ramp it up big time.....;)

OK go on then Deank

Folks, snow boots at the ready late Sunday and for all of Monday. The Beast from the East will be visiting our shores late this weekend with a various selection of treats - sub zero night time temperatures, harsh frost and heavy snow fall. We might even get Thunder Snow and Blizzards. Ladies and Gentlemen, roll up, roll up, winter 2012/2013 has a definite bite in its tail. M50 traffic watch out, Dublin Airport watch out!! It gonna get messy!!!

How is that for a ramp? :cool:

D

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Deank wrote: »

Based on the current charts TNT what do reckon the chances of seeing some decent snowfall down our way on Sun thru Mon???

Kildare always does well out of these events, if it comes we will get it would be my advice

dopolahpec

Hmmmm I think talk of blizzards into Meath and all is a ramp too far. I'm hoping for a decent few showers along the east coast with lying snow. Not so sure about 'blizzards'.

Smidge

I'd say the sale of "F5" buttons will go through the roof between now and Sunday:P

Deank

derekon wrote: »

OK go on then Deank

Folks, snow boots at the ready late Sunday and for all of Monday. The Beast from the East will be visiting our shores late this weekend with a various selection of treats - sub zero night time temperatures, harsh frost and heavy snow fall. We might even get Thunder Snow and Blizzards. Ladies and Gentlemen, roll up, roll up, winter 2012/2013 has a definite bite in its tail. M50 traffic watch out, Dublin Airport watch out!! It gonna get messy!!!

How is that for a ramp? :cool:

D

Love it D, my god you can ramp , now for the high res watching over the next day or so. Let's hope this brings all that is promised to see this season out.:D

Jesus and you said thunder snow:eek: now there's a ramp....

Deank

t|nt|n wrote: »

Kildare always does well out of these events, if it comes we will get it would be my advice

I may have to (ahem) work from home on Monday so, actually if it does come down heavy I'll never be able to get to work:eek:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Deank wrote: »

I may have to (ahem) work from home on Monday so, actually if it does come down heavy I'll never be able to get to work:eek:

Im of monday anyway

leahyl

Oh you guys :-D ye make things so exciting :-P

dacogawa

derekon wrote: »

I have just read MT's recent post outlining his high confidence for snow for a lot of Ireland on Sunday night into Monday.

Against this I have just watched Gerry Murphy's forecast - he is saying that Sunday and Monday will be cold days with the odd wintry shower.

These forecasts are WORLDS APART.

MT, hats off to you and your forecasts and all due respect but this has not been your year in terms of forecasting snow/cold spells for Ireland. Gerry Murphy and Met Eireann have been on the money all the time.

So I am sticking with Gerry Murphy for the time being and am not buying into the ramping -we have been here so many times during the past winter only to be let down at the last minute.

Unless the charts are saying snow on Saturday evening, I am saying NO TO SNOW!!

.........but will gladly eat my hat if Gerry is wrong and MT is right :eek:

D

Got to point out here that the charts are in agreement on this (for the first time this year), RTE will be using the 0z for the 6pm news & change to the 12z after the 9pm news, I think you might see an upgrade then but also there mightn't be until they are 100% sure as everyone will end up running out to buy milk/coal/bread. Probably the right way to go by Gerry at the moment but as said before the charts are in agreement (the ECM used by Met.ie/RTE) & they're 96 hours out...

Roll on the 9:30 GFS

maquiladora

Well it looks like the cold snap is pretty much nailed now. Not as extreme as the models were previously showing (that -14 air reaching the west coast is gone) but a period of -10 to -12 uppers looks more likely than not now.

But what people are really interested in is snow. To me, it looks like it will be fairly dry in most places during that spell of colder air, eastern and southern coastal counties most likely places to see some snow. I'd guess a couple of cm in some places, and not much more than a dusting elsewhere.

If you are expecting a major snow event from this, I'd like to see the precip charts on the models you're looking at. :P

If this had been in the middle of winter, with proper blocking and something a bit longer than just a snap then it could have been really interesting. But thats life!