Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

Redsunset

Ok after me experiencing this mornings early emotions.

I have composed myself and decided that this is NOT a done deal yet. The horse needs to run a bit longer. Still a watch and thread title is good.

dopolahpec

MrFrisp wrote: »

At the moment,,,M.E. seem to be really playing this down...


Sunday: Becoming very cold everywhere with temperatures falling to low single figures as the day goes on. Many places will be fairly dry and bright, but scattered showers will affect eastern coastal areas and these could turn wintry later. Rain might linger for a time near south coasts as well. Widespread severe frost will develop on Sunday night.

Monday: Extremely cold with temperatures a few degrees above freezing at best in stiff northeast winds. Many places dry and bright, but a few wintry showers are likely in the east and north. Severe frost again at night.

Tuesday: Still very cold and mainly dry, but probably becoming a bit less cold in the north with occasional showers. Winds turning northerly and easing.

Further outlook: Looking less cold everywhere, but temperatures still below normal for this time of year with widespread frost at night. Mainly dry at first, increasing risk of rain later.

Yes, and I still believe they are right to. What do we expect them to say? Snowmageddon? Time for a run on Aldi beans? On the basis of what? the GFS? Looking at the ECM there is a much lower threat of significant precipitation as the low tracks further south, this also means less intense easterly flow north of it. They will probably upgrade to 'heavy wintry showers' at some stage today, but I doubt they will be issuing any warnings on the basis of the current output.

I don't buy the snowmageddon hype myself. I saw a poster from Clare saying they were taking the day off work, I hope they see some significant snow that far west, but my feeling is this will be concentrated in the north-east/east/south east and the south. Probably something equivalent to one heavy streamer day from 2010, of which remember there were many, and even then the distribution of snow was very varied along the east coast.

Redsunset

My thoughts exactly dop. I just didn't like to say it.

maquiladora

Well, if you look at the ECM, it does look mostly dry with some very light precip around coasts.

12pm Sunday :



6pm Sunday :



12am Monday :



6am Monday :



12pm Monday :



6pm Monday :

dopolahpec

One things for sure, if it does all come together as progged by latest GFS then we are in for a treat, and Ireland may fare better than the UK.

Rebelbrowser

Sorry, I'm about to do here what I give out about from others but needs must...

I'm in London with little fella over weekend, flying back from London to Cork on Monday afternoon. Am I right in thinking that flight back is looking dodgy at both ends? Really looking forward to spending 36 hrs in Gatwick entertaining a 5 year old waiting for a gap in the weather...

Of course my unspoken fear really is that I might be stuck in a snowless London unable to get back to snowbound Cork in time to see the best snow event ever (*tries not to cry......)

Redsunset

Just want to stress that there is NO SNOWSTORM imminent.

ECM is the form horse and is not particularly exciting for alot of snow. The low is further south and precipitation in steamers will not be modeled too good yet if at all. Don't be getting too excited like I did this morning. Gave myself a good slap of common sense.

Weathering

I have a nagging feeling that here in donegal we might only see a flurry at best. Here's all hoping we fair well

pad199207

Weathering wrote: »

I have a nagging feeling that here in donegal we might only see a flurry at best. Here's all hoping we fair well

I have the feeling here in East Kildare that were only going to see a flurry at best, so dont fret

lucernarian

Redsunset wrote: »

Just want to stress that there is NO SNOWSTORM imminent.

ECM is the form horse and is not particularly exciting for alot of snow. The low is further south and precipitation in steamers will not be modeled too good yet if at all. Don't be getting too excited like I did this morning. Gave myself a good slap of common sense.

The NAE so far is backing the evolution of the LP to the south of Cork in a very similar way to GFS, out to Saturday morning...

freedominacup

Redsunset wrote: »

Just want to stress that there is NO SNOWSTORM imminent.

ECM is the form horse and is not particularly exciting for alot of snow. The low is further south and precipitation in steamers will not be modeled too good yet if at all. Don't be getting too excited like I did this morning. Gave myself a good slap of common sense.

I know nothing about the weather forecasting services being referenced here, and nothing much about weather forecasting other than what working outdoors for 30 years has taught me. I just don't see what is being predicted/hoped for happening. It's over 10 degrees here now and for a lot of yesterday it was hard to keep a coat on despite the fact it was lashing down. Temps have too far to fall back with too much daylight for anything major at this time of year. More than once I've brought livestock back indoors out of snow showers/storms at this time of year but it was only ever an overnight event at most. You can get plenty of severe cold at this time of year and well into April for that matter but it is normally driven by E/NE winds that are almost always dry and cold esp once they've spun whatever moisture they carried out over Northern Europe and the U.K.
Just sayin'

Rebelbrowser

Redsunset wrote: »

Just want to stress that there is NO SNOWSTORM imminent.
QUOTE]

Michael Fish-esque I hope!

Elmer Blooker

derekon wrote: »

Susan Jackson on RTE Radio 1 just now giving the weather update after the news: Today will be mostly mild with light rain over the country, highs of +10 to +13.

Met Eireann haven't done well this week, they have been forecasting mild weather and temperatures in the low teens all week but the temperature at Dublin Airport hasn't got above 10c since Feb 16th. The milder weather hasn't moved as far north as expected. I noticed Valentia hit 13c the other day but that has been the exception, everywhere else has been around average or even a little below. When I was cycling yesterday with my hands frozen in a cold se'ly, I was thinking of ME's predictions of 13c and mild weather.:rolleyes:
I noticed a few days ago it was 3c in Sheffield and 17c in Kent.

Bejubby

The way the charts are now,does it show snow for the south east.

Ive only encountered 1 flurry of snow this winter which lasted about 5 minutes.
I need a fix of snow!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Relax, 06z GFS is grand so far !

Weathering

It got up 18celcius in west Wales too. Balmy

whitebriar

Redsunset wrote: »

Just want to stress that there is NO SNOWSTORM imminent.

ECM is the form horse and is not particularly exciting for alot of snow. The low is further south and precipitation in steamers will not be modeled too good yet if at all. Don't be getting too excited like I did this morning. Gave myself a good slap of common sense.

ME tend to under estimate the Irish sea.
For Xmas eve 2010,they confidently told the DAA it would be dry,a few flurries but no more snow disruption.They told them that on the 23rd...
The airport stayed closed as it snowed in a streamer all day that Xmas eve.

ninebeanrows

The latest 6z has the low a bit further south, but still has the east coast in streamer zone, which is probably better than being stuck under some light frontal precip anyway!

A very cold flow, 850hPas below -12c for the east at times!

Also looks like any warming from the northwest is becoming dumbed down as forecasts are evolving.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

The latest 6z has the low a bit further south, but still has the east coast in streamer zone, which is probably better than being stuck under some light frontal precip anyway!

A very cold flow, 850hPas below -12c for the east at times!

Also looks like any warming from the northwest is becoming dumbed down as forecasts are evolving.

18z NAE will be interesting, it seems to be following the GFS evolution so far

ninebeanrows

We know from experience that this type of flow gives delivers streamers!

And just look at the Dew-points, no marginality.

ninebeanrows

And just to remind ourselves how good things look.

The much flaunted 850hPa temp chart, at just 72hrs!

whitebriar

freedominacup wrote: »

I know nothing about the weather forecasting services being referenced here, and nothing much about weather forecasting other than what working outdoors for 30 years has taught me. I just don't see what is being predicted/hoped for happening. It's over 10 degrees here now and for a lot of yesterday it was hard to keep a coat on despite the fact it was lashing down. Temps have too far to fall back with too much daylight for anything major at this time of year. More than once I've brought livestock back indoors out of snow showers/storms at this time of year but it was only ever an overnight event at most. You can get plenty of severe cold at this time of year and well into April for that matter but it is normally driven by E/NE winds that are almost always dry and cold esp once they've spun whatever moisture they carried out over Northern Europe and the U.K.
Just sayin'

Yeah but...
This is a very rare injection of super cold air(-10c at 5000ft and colder).
Pass that over the Irish sea and it sucks up moisture which falling through freezing air means snow.
You need to understand how this works.

This is not going to be a Nov 2010 cold but prior to that I've never seen -6c daytime highs near Arklow in November before as well as several inches of snow in November AT SEA LEVEL.
So there's a first time for lots of things.
Keep a watch is all.

/just saying.

dopolahpec

Weathercheck wrote: »

We know from experience that this type of flow gives delivers streamers!

And just look at the Dew-points, no marginality.

I agree, this will be a streamer party for eastern parts of Ireland. I do think however there's an impression amongst many that this will be a country wide event. For cold yes? For snow? Hmmmmmmmmmmm

JanuarySnowstor

There's nothing certain in any of this regarding snowfall
They only thing we know for sure is that Monday will be a severely cold day
As for MT's forecast of storms and snowfall, maybe in your country MT but in Ireland seeing 2 snowflakes in a row is a minor miracle
I do think favoured spots will see snow but most of the ppn charts on the gfs are quite dry and they are usually accurate

MidMan25

Doing my best not to respond to some of the silly comments being posted in here!

Speak Now

Lets get the cold here first and see what happens!

Redsunset

I agree whitebriar. They do under estimate our snow machine. It will come to life for the East. I'm just not convince yet for a more widespread event like the Gfs is showing. I rather the streamers myself. The unpredictablity of how powerful they can get is exciting. I say bring em with avengence.

M.T. Cranium

The 06z GFS maintains the theme of that model anyway, low track has not shifted appreciably and is even a bit deeper, there's a 20 mb gradient between Malin Head and Sherkin Island and the coldest uppers since Jan 1987 in an easterly, so -- this is actually the sort of pattern where I tend to trust the GFS more than the ECM, and it has a recent surge of better validation too. Therefore I'm inclined to maintain an aggressive line on this because all those little signs are right, in my opinion. The situation will be explosive, with the lower water temps there won't be any resistance to overcome and streamers will explode into life late Sunday once the colder air pushes across England. The exact track of the low doesn't concern me too much because if it's north then snow is a certainty and if it's south then streamers have nothing to dampen them down, so either way it's looking good. These uppers can't be discounted. And yes, southeast in line for snow even Waterford could see some. Not as optimistic for Clare for that boardsie but there's still time for this to max out, a closer approach of that low would really seal the deal and how many times have lows drifted north off model tracks? Quite a few times. Anyway, I must grab some sleep now and see y'all after the 12z runs. By the way, another wrinkle offered up on the JMA, which is saying the low stops moving when it gets to 10W. Combine that with GFS intensity and track and you've got an entirely new scenario beyond Monday mid-day. I could see some drift in that direction (slowing down the progressive nature of the low). Something to watch on more reliable models later.

JanuarySnowstor

The 06z is bone dry after Monday though very cold with very severe frosts. It looks like it's all down to Monday

Redsunset

MidMan25 wrote: »

Doing my best not to respond to some of the silly comments being posted in here!

It would be very wise not to.