Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

oterra

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

And at 192hrs the cold is gone.
Yawn... it's back to the footie for me lol
Severe frost Sunday, Monday and Tuesday nights is what I see

Yea in Cork maybe!

Speak Now

I learned my lesson from the brief cold easterly we got in February. Pressure very high, flow looked stable and dry but the Irish sea through up plenty on the Saturday. I have no doubt the east coast would see some action with those uppers. Of course i can understand this wouldnt be exciting from a Cork point of view!

JanuarySnowstor

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

I learned my lesson from the brief cold easterly we got in February. Pressure very high, flow looked stable and dry but the Irish sea through up plenty on the Saturday. I have no doubt the east coast would see some action with those uppers. Of course i can understand this wouldnt be exciting from a Cork point of view!

Actually Cork is best located as we are further from the incoming high pressure. If anywhere sees snow it will be the Southeast Coast.
I suppose a step back and it's great to see such cold uppers, experience tells me though that the high will slip further south on the models tomorrow
Let's hope I'm wrong

JanuarySnowstor

ECM precip charts over on N-W confirming a distinct lack of ppn

doccy

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

ECM precip charts over on N-W confirming a distinct lack of ppn

over East Cork

Gonzo

Whats the bets that Meath will end up under the Isle of Man shadow yet again! Lets hope its like the 2010 spell where variable changes in wind direction changes this shadow from time to time so that all areas eventually see decent enough snow fall. In 2010 the Dublin Airport and Dublin 15 areas of Blanchardstown and Castleknock had amazing depths of snow as they rarely fell under this shadow. Since it's March and winter should be over, I would be happy with 3 inchs of snow and thats it.

aboyro

"beast from the east" i never gave up on you:D:D

M.T. Cranium

On these current model runs, it would appear that a half-day window opens up for significant snowfall, moving from north to south with the gradient and very cold uppers. Timing at present would be Sunday night for east Ulster, Monday early morning for north Leinster, Monday mid-day for Dublin and Wicklow and Monday late afternoon or evening for south coast. In all cases this time window for snow is followed by clearing and potential for near-record cold with just minor snow potential rest of week.

Not wishing to speculate yet on amounts but we're talking about a significant if short-term accumulation given the blast of cold that would be injected into an already moist air mass. Western half of the country would be largely dry but hit or miss remnant snow flurries could arrive as winds will be briefly quite strong (ENE 40-70 km/hr). If you don't hold me to this I would say 10-20 cm local accumulation potential in the usual snow-prone areas and 5-10 cm closer to sea level, if the maps verify. Will begin to generate more serious snowfall forecasts at 0600h if the models don't backtrack on this.

By end of week into weekend of 16th-17th, the remnants of today's strong east coast U.S. storm would arrive after visiting the Azores around Tuesday, and there again the current charts indicate a snow potential with -5 to -8 uppers and no real change in air mass all week. I would be very cautious on that one at this ten-day time range, but just saying the conditions would be close to rain-snow mix at 150-300m from the guidance now available.

TheMilkyPirate

Hi MT, A lot of people won't care but what are your thoughts on this affecting the Cheltenham festival in england? Begins on Tuesday and runs through to Friday. Or would Cheltenham be too far west for significant disruption?

Birdnuts

The last cold March I can remember was back in 2006 - lets hope the coming summer follows a similiar pattern;)

Red Pepper

I am so excited and I just cant hide it!

whitebriar

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

ECM precip charts over on N-W confirming a distinct lack of ppn

Useless looking at those untill about T-48
Also the snow last Saturday week in the East came with warmer uppers and a considerably warmer surface flow than next weeks scenario.

Mind you that's not the first time I've seen Irish sea showers in 1025 air pressure.

As for Cork being in the best location for precip in this set up,you're having a laugh.

dacogawa

bit of an upgrade but still not getting my hopes up yet

Musicman2000

Those in the south east will like this Ecmwf perception for Monday, will more than likely change.

Daniel2590

dacogawa wrote: »

bit of an upgrade but still not getting my hopes up yet

And the -12's have moved 200 miles west this time!

JanuarySnowstor

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Those in the south east will like this Ecmwf perception for Monday, will more than likely change.

As I said earlier the Southeast is favoured spot!!
Indeed even more so going by the 18z with the southc coast also under significnaant threat

Pangea

Looks like another painful watch for those on the west coast, just hope to see some nice ice days out of it.
Meanwhile Antrim and Down probably be covered in snow yet again.

Weathering

Pangea wrote: »

Looks like another painful watch for those on the west coast, just hope to see some nice ice days out of it.
Meanwhile Antrim and Down probably be covered in snow yet again.

So your saying no snow for us in Donegal?
I haven't looked at the charts since yesterday
Laptops broken

Youneckfreak

How's about Waterford and cork ?

Pangea

Weathering wrote: »

So your saying no snow for us in Donegal?
I haven't looked at the charts since yesterday

Well I'm not saying anything really, just commenting on the early forecasts which is mentioning snow for east ulster. Going by this winter so far the snow showers from the east don't do much for us in Donegal. Early days yet though.

Iancar29

Looks like even Washington DC is like Ireland sometimes... haha!!
http://www.buzzfeed.com/danoshinsky/washington-dc-is-the-worst-during-a-snowstorm

ninebeanrows

Iancar29 wrote: »

Looks like even Washington DC is like Ireland sometimes... haha!!
http://www.buzzfeed.com/danoshinsky/washington-dc-is-the-worst-during-a-snowstorm

Very good:D

Wicklow Weather

The mean temp for Mon through Thursday is -4c at ground level according to GEFS ensembles. Cant post file says its invalid.

Redsunset

ECM Extreme forecast index.

DOCARCH

No real backtrack from the ECM this morning - looking at the end of the run, it could be a pretty cold and white St. Patrick's Day!

dopolahpec

DOCARCH wrote: »

No real backtrack from the ECM this morning - looking at the end of the run, it could be a pretty cold and white St. Patrick's Day!

ECM hasn't updated on Meteociel anyone got an alternative link?

dopolahpec

Had a look at GFS and ECM overnight runs. Have to say there's not much room for manoeuvre left. The cold window has narrowed significantly with that high pressure falling south over us quicker.

derekon

dopolahpec wrote: »

Had a look at GFS and ECM overnight runs. Have to say there's not much room for manoeuvre left. The cold window has narrowed significantly with that high pressure falling south over us quicker.

So there is now a chance that this very late cold and snowy day or two might not develop now? :rolleyes:

D

dopolahpec

derekon wrote: »

So there is now a chance that this very late cold and snowy day or two might not develop now? :rolleyes:

D

Well as it stands we would still see some snow for the eastern areas from Sunday into Monday. A shortlived blast which could deliver some hefty showers. But I feel the trend is toward a dilution of the solution. Let's see what the 6z throws up.

I really hope we get one snow day. After that who really wants it to hang around too long?

Redsunset

Sunday night to Monday night is the window for snow showers. A brief but exciting period of potential mostly for the East. There after the cold seems to hang around for a week or more.