Atlantic Storm Watch: Turning Unsettled with Gales

maquiladora

NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center's Page

Beautiful, textbook satellite imagery from the SEVIRI (Meteosat-9) Red Green Blue (RGB) Air Mass product this morning, valid time Jan 26th 0645Z. The central pressure of the low was analyzed to 939 mb at 06Z, and the system is forecast to deepen even further over the next 12 hours. The low is then forecast to slowly fill and lift northeastward, giving way to a continued very active, and very intense low track over the next several days across the Atlantic.

Mr Cumulonimbus

Frontal cloud moving over alot of the country now. Snow covering a fair bit of Britain.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

maquiladora

Wow. Latest NOAA chart just out showing wave heights up to 18m = 60 feet. Individual waves would be even higher.

chilipepper

Very heavy rain here in clare at the moment. I would expect some flooding out of this.

snaps

Some serious flooding on the roads. And drivers driving with no lights on and like nutters.

Oscar Bravo

Was at Sligo airport today,so i popped down to the sea for a look,some really big waves there!! Back in Castlebar now,its wet and windy....

ninebeanrows

looks like it will bottom near 932hPa.

maquiladora

NOAA chart for 12pm today, showing Jolle at 930mb three hours ago.

ninebeanrows

Look at the speed of the wind at 850hPa Monday, the Jet will be right overhead >150kts

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

looks like it will bottom near 932hPa.

I'd say between 925-930 since NOAA put had it at 930 at 12pm.

Pity there are no ships/buoys anywhere near the center!

Mr Benevolent

maquiladora wrote: »

Pity there are no ships/buoys anywhere near the center!

You wouldn't be saying that if you were at sea during the storm.

maquiladora

Confab wrote: »

You wouldn't be saying that if you were at sea during the storm.

Oh I know that. :pac: I mean just from a data gathering point of view. It was ship reports that confirmed the very low pressure of previous big Atlantic storms like this.

maquiladora

Monday looking windy on the 12Z NMM. Only goes out to 48 hours. Fairly widespread gusts around 90-100km/h, stronger around coasts.

Convective gusts could be quite a bit higher at times.

Just how it looks at the moment, could easily downgrade as we get closer to the time.

Winger_PL

2 lightning strikes within the last 5 minutes in Rathdrum. EDIT: followed by a torrential downpour.

teddybones

Winger_PL wrote: »

2 lightning strikes within the last 5 minutes in Rathdrum. EDIT: followed by a torrential downpour.

I was in the bath and saw two lightning strikes also, Wicklow town. Lashing down now for a while also.

Oscar Bravo

A nice forecast from David Rogers on RTE Radio1 there...."heavy squally showers in the west later tonight and tomorow with the risk of thunder locally. Monday-from day light monday until early evening will be a stormy period with the risk of damageing winds for a time"

maquiladora

Don't forget, there is still an Estofex Level 1 in place for the west covering this evening/night.

The cold front of the powerful Atlantic cyclone will hit the Irish West coast around 18 UTC and cross the British Isles overnight. The pre-frontal environment is characterized by a tongue of very moist subtropical air (surface dewpoints ~10°C and mixing ratios ~8 g/kg) and by enhanced 0-3 km storm-relative helicity (~300 m^2/s^2). The strong frontal convergence will likely result in a shallow convective line without lightning activity. Due to the very low cloud bases and at least weak low-level buoyancy, one or two (weak) tornadoes are possible if pre-existing misovortices happen to be ingested by the updrafts. This threat quickly diminishes further East, as the cold front runs into the right exit region of the Atlantic jet stream and gets repressed by subsidence.
With the arrival of the main Atlantic trough, post-frontal convection will move onshore in Ireland again late at night, possibly organized into a comma. The then well-mixed maritime airmass and 850 hPa winds around 25 m/s are suggestive of a few severe wind events.

maquiladora

Update on Jolle from Dr Masters on Weather Underground :

In the Northern Atlantic south of Iceland, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday has put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with the center pressure dropping 58 mb in 24 hours. The Free University of Berlin, which names all major high and low pressure systems that affect Europe, has named the storm "Jolle." This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 988 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center, and hit 930 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. The storm may deepen a few more millibars today, but it is close to maximum intensity. A 930 mb central pressure is what one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is one of the lowest pressures attained by an Atlantic extratropical storm in recent decades. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) The powerful storm brought sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 72 mph, to Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland at 6 pm local time Saturday. Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before Jolle's core hurricane-force winds affect any land areas.

snaps

Its been persisting down all day. The amount of water laying is unreal. Wind really getting up now too. Mild at 10.3c.

Sierra Oscar

It is quite blustery here in North Tipperary, wasn't really expecting much wind at the moment.

Elmer Blooker

teddybones wrote: »

I was in the bath and saw two lightning strikes also, Wicklow town. Lashing down now for a while also.

I knew I saw something and wasn't imagining it :eek:
it was towards the NE.

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html

downwiththatsor

Has gotten pretty stormy here in Kerry just now, was not expecting it so wild this early.

Harps

Likewise in Galway, heavy rain with some torrential bursts for the past 15 minutes, looks to be a very active front

maquiladora

Latest NOAA chart for 12pm Monday. The track those two lows take will be important in deciding if we get stormy or just windy conditions Monday/Tuesday.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif

Strong lows usually end up tracking a bit further north than expected, but if they track a bit further south then there is the potential for a more severe wind event.

maquiladora

Probably the most impressive Atlantic low I've seen in terms of structure. The scale is amazing.

I can't believe so many weather fans were more interested in a bit of snizzle and wet snow compared to this. :P

cyclops999

maquiladora wrote: »

Probably the most impressive Atlantic low I've seen in terms of structure. The scale is amazing.

I can't believe so many weather fans were more interested in a bit of snizzle and wet snow compared to this. :P

WOW

maquiladora

Strong warning from Met Eireann out now.

Issued at 26 January 2013 - 18:57

Weather Advisory

There is a high probability that southwest to west winds will increase to mean speeds and gusts that have the potential to cause damage, in many parts of the country, during Monday 28th January.

Exceptionally high waves affecting Atlantic coasts, also on Monday, will bring the threat of coastal flooding at times of high tide.

Valid from 09:00 to 24:00 Monday 28/1/2013

cyclops999

maquiladora wrote: »

Strong warning from Met Eireann out now.

Now thats what I call ramping

whiteandlight

Ya I was very surprised to see the warning today given that the models have been so unreliable of late.

chilipepper

what is the predicted central pressure with the storm on monday?