Atlantic Storm Watch: Turning Unsettled with Gales

cyclops999

Red Bull Storm Chase‏@rbstormchase

Red Bull Storm Chase Mission #1 to Ireland: IT'S A GO

Daniel2590

Why are the strongest winds at the southern edge of storms? Is it because that edge is affected by the jet stream or is there another reason?

maquiladora

NOAA are pretty excited about the big Atlantic storm. They've been posting about it on the Ocean Prediction Center facebook page.

They mention 927mb but their forecasts go in 24 hour periods so it would only be luck if it was at it's most intense exactly at 24 hours. The models suggest it being a few mb stronger after that.



It's 981mb at the moment.

cyclops999

Maq: just looking at the ME 5 day forcast Tuesday's wind chart at 18z are they sustained wind speeds?

maquiladora

cyclops999 wrote: »

Maq: just looking at the ME 5 day forcast Tuesday's wind chart at 18z are they sustained wind speeds?

Yep.

Also, our big Atlantic low has a name now- Jolle!

Mr Cumulonimbus

Visible wavelength image at midday.

paddy ocon

is this supposed to be hitting us now. Very windy and lashing here now.`Citywest

Iancar29

paddy ocon wrote: »

is this supposed to be hitting us now. Very windy and lashing here now.`Citywest

:rolleyes:

maquiladora

paddy ocon wrote: »

is this supposed to be hitting us now. Very windy and lashing here now.`Citywest

No, that rain and wind is from a much smaller low to our northwest today.

paddy ocon

sorry for asking !!!! thanks Maquiladora

Big Daddy Cool

Heavy rain here in the last 30mins, not what i needed.

monster1

paddy ocon wrote: »

sorry for asking !!!! thanks Maquiladora

yes, it would of been a lot easier to answer your question than upload a stupid facepalm pic

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

NOAA are pretty excited about the big Atlantic storm. They've been posting about it on the Ocean Prediction Center facebook page.

They mention 927mb but their forecasts go in 24 hour periods so it would only be luck if it was at it's most intense exactly at 24 hours. The models suggest it being a few mb stronger after that.

It's 981mb at the moment.

I wonder will they send out one of their recon planes for this, purely for scientific reasons?

Iancar29

monster1 wrote: »

yes, it would of been a lot easier to answer your question than upload a stupid facepalm pic

Wouldnt have had the same effect of facepalmness .. sorry! ha

Hence why i put the >>> :rolleyes: <<< in !

Sorry if it made one feel bad.





Gonna be some spot flooding after this rain , roads are already bad on the m50 of what i hear .


Anyone in the NW planning on chasing next week then? :pac:

maquiladora

Rougies wrote: »

I wonder will they send out one of their recon planes for this, purely for scientific reasons?

Doesn't look like it.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

nelly17

Iancar29 wrote: »

Wouldnt have had the same effect of facepalmness .. sorry! ha

Hence why i put the >>> :rolleyes: <<< in !

Sorry if it made one feel bad.





Gonna be some spot flooding after this rain , roads are already bad on the m50 of what i hear .


Anyone in the NW planning on chasing next week then? :pac:

Holy moly have not checked this thread since yesterday and I thought the storm was tracking away - that looks like a Face Plant

maquiladora

nelly17 wrote: »

Holy moly have not checked this thread since yesterday and I thought the storm was tracking away - that looks like a Face Plant

Those winds aren't from the main storm. Some models are showing two more storms passing close by here Monday and Tuesday. It's complicated and not really nailed down yet.

cyclops999

Are we nearing a Level 1 extreme event ?

ninebeanrows

I think the time period to look for a severe storm for Ireland is circa 96hrs as the jet re-strengthens close to our shores.
The jet well over 150knots

maquiladora

cyclops999 wrote: »

Are we nearing a Level 1 extreme event ?

For the risk of some local flooding anyway I'd say so, heavy rain due tomorrow on top of today's rain and a the risk of more heavy rain early next week.

Still a fair bit of uncertainty with winds. The lows on Monday/Tuesday could end up tracking well away from us or get absorbed and not deepen at all.

maquiladora

'Jolle' at 3pm is 976mb.

Iancar29

Miss seeing these colours on radar!

maquiladora

12Z GFS downgrades Monday's potential storm for here and tracks Tuesday's potential storm hundreds of miles further west of us. Big changes with these lows from just six hours ago. Impossible to know what will actually happen.

Mr Cumulonimbus

Image at 3pm.

maquiladora

Dr Jeff Masters on The Weather Underground:

How low will it go? Massive Atlantic storm winding up

In the Northern Atlantic, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday is rapidly intensifying about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, and figures to become one of the most intense storms ever observed in the North Atlantic. This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 984 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center; the GFS and ECMWF models both predict that the storm will deepen by 60 mb in 24 hours, reaching a central pressure of 924 - 928 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. This is the central pressure one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is a very rare intensity for an extratropical storm to attain. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before reaching any land areas, and will only be a concern to shipping. The intensification process will be aided by the strong contrast between the frigid Arctic air flowing off the coast of Canada from this week's cold blast, and the warm air lying over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream current. The ultimate strength of the storm will depend upon where the center tracks in relation to several warm eddies of the Gulf Stream along its path. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.

CrazyRabbit

Ok...don't really understand much of what's posted above, but I do have one question; Is it going to stop raining today at all??? It hasn't stopped for hours here (Dublin 15).

Signed,

Grumpy and soon to be very wet motorcyclist.

(Presuming this rain is to do with the storm mentioned in this thread.)

Rattle

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think the time period to look for a severe storm for Ireland is circa 96hrs as the jet re-strengthens close to our shores.
The jet well over 150knots

Google tells me 150 knots is 277 km/h !?! I presume those wind speeds are not at ground level.

maquiladora

CrazyRabbit wrote: »

Ok...don't really understand much of what's posted above, but I do have one question; Is it going to stop raining today at all??? It hasn't stopped for hours here (Dublin 15).

Signed,

Grumpy and soon to be very wet motorcyclist.

(Presuming this rain is to do with the storm mentioned in this thread.)

Should be stopped later this evening/early tonight.

maquiladora

Rattle wrote: »

Google tells me 150 knots is 277 km/h !?! I presume those wind speeds are not at ground level.

No, 9km up.

ninebeanrows

Rattle wrote: »

Google tells me 150 knots is 277 km/h !?! I presume those wind speeds are not at ground level.

No at 300hPa, circa 8/9km up!