Atlantic Storm Watch: Turning Unsettled with Gales

maquiladora

Despite Monday not looking like a very strong wind event on the 12Z GFS, the convective gust chart shows very strong 80 - 85 kt convective gusts over much of Ireland.

We'll see what Estofex say over the weekend.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Despite Monday not looking like a very strong wind event on the 12Z GFS, the convective gust chart shows very strong 80 - 85 kt convective gusts over much of Ireland.

We'll see what Estofex say over the weekend.

where is that chart from Maq?

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

where is that chart from Maq?

Lightning Wizard.

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur72.png

Latest sat pic, shows the scale of that big low deepening in the Atlantic now.

mike65

please stop raining My back garden is shrinking

admiralofthefleet

there was some serious rain earlier between 2 and half 3 in arklow/gorey. the wexford road is flooded and the m11 was a swamp. like a fool me and the father in law decided to go to gorey then, rain was unbelievable

Big Daddy Cool

Nothing like some Flooding for the weekend, last week and again this week, I'm just so lucky

Big Daddy Cool

mike65 wrote: »

please stop raining My back garden is shrinking

I know how ya feel, my driveway has vanished, just footpaths at the front left visible, My house looks like its sitting in a pond

maquiladora

974mb at 6pm. Just a 1mb drop in the past 3 hours.

cyclops999

ESTOFEX

A level 1 was issued for Western Ireland for severe wind gusts and to a lesser degree for tornadoes.

Frank Bullitt

Any idea when this might ease up on the east coast?

cyclops999

The cold front of the powerful Atlantic cyclone will hit the Irish West coast around 18 UTC and cross the British Isles overnight. The pre-frontal environment is characterized by a tongue of very moist subtropical air (surface dewpoints ~10°C and mixing ratios ~8 g/kg) and by enhanced 0-3 km storm-relative helicity (~300 m^2/s^2). The strong frontal convergence will likely result in a shallow convective line without lightning activity. Due to the very low cloud bases and at least weak low-level buoyancy, one or two (weak) tornadoes are possible if pre-existing misovortices happen to be ingested by the updrafts. This threat quickly diminishes further East, as the cold front runs into the right exit region of the Atlantic jet stream and gets repressed by subsidence.
With the arrival of the main Atlantic trough, post-frontal convection will move onshore in Ireland again late at night, possibly organized into a comma. The then well-mixed maritime airmass and 850 hPa winds around 25 m/s are suggestive of a few severe wind events.

Rougies

Gintonious wrote: »

Any idea when this might ease up on the east coast?

UK4 and Hirlam saying it'll clear by 10pm
NAE keeping it around until about 1am

Frank Bullitt

It's eased up a good bit in the last few moments actually, still raining but not hammering.

*Must have been a lul, its hammering again!

Big Daddy Cool

footpaths have disappeared now, still raining

uh oh Toilet and shower gurgling

maquiladora

Surf's up.

cyclops999

maquiladora wrote: »

Surf's up.

Picture paints a thousand words Red Bull Storm Chasers on route

maquiladora

UKMO Fax chart for 12pm tomorrow.

Big Daddy Cool

Looking like the clearance from the wesht is on the way and thank fook for that

maquiladora

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

Looking like the clearance from the wesht is on the way and thank fook for that

There is more heavy rain on the way tomorrow I'm afraid.

Big Daddy Cool

maquiladora wrote: »

There is more heavy rain on the way tomorrow I'm afraid.

I know, but a clearance gives the flood water a chance to go down, better then nothing.

Trogdor

maquiladora wrote: »

There is more heavy rain on the way tomorrow I'm afraid.

Hopefully there'll be enough time for river levels to fall a bit overnight, the combination or today's rain and the snow melt off the Wicklow mountains certainly has the dargle looking very threatening this evening.

admiralofthefleet

Trogdor wrote: »

Hopefully there'll be enough time for river levels to fall a bit overnight, the combination or today's rain and the snow melt off the Wicklow mountains certainly has the dargle looking very threatening this evening.

the Avoca in Arklow was a raging torrent at the bridge earlier

Birdnuts

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z GFS downgrades Monday's potential storm for here and tracks Tuesday's potential storm hundreds of miles further west of us. Big changes with these lows from just six hours ago. Impossible to know what will actually happen.

Both ECM and MetO look alot stormier - given the jet forecast I can see this as being the more likely outcome.

whiteandlight

I've been away abit with work this week so haven't been paying attention! When are these two storms due to hit? And I'm right in saying neither are actually the huge in in the Atlantic?

maquiladora

Musicmental85 wrote: »

I've been away abit with work this week so haven't been paying attention! When are these two storms due to hit? And I'm right in saying neither are actually the huge in in the Atlantic?

The big Atlantic low, Jolle, is developing now and will peak early tomorrow out at sea. We'll find out tonight if it undergoes as much explosive deepening as the models think. There are two possible other lows then Monday and Tuesday that would be much smaller but because they could pass close to Ireland we could get stronger winds from them. There is a lot of uncertainty about Monday/Tuesday though, and one or both of those might not have any real impact here at all. I have a feeling they will end up tracking well away from us but I could be wrong.

Big Daddy Cool

Hey maq do you know if the rain tomorrow evening will be as heavy and long as today's.

Storm 10

Met Eireann are going to give further info on the storm after the news that follows the late late show could be interesting, thats what Gerry said after the 6pm news

Deank

Storm 10 wrote: »

Met Eireann are going to give further info on the storm after the news that follows the late late show could be interesting, thats what Gerry said after the 6pm news

Mmmm Gerry, the anti ramper, perhaps he only anti ramps when snow is about.:rolleyes:

delw

maquiladora wrote: »

Surf's up.

Jaysus high seas,half of Ireland is gone

Deank

delw wrote: »

Jaysus high seas,half of Ireland is gone

A Martin King forecast for this would be epic; and a happy birthday to Mary O'Dea from Mallow who's 102 today.....:D