Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Sponge Bob

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Nice one Trog or WC with Title change.

You wish. They never changed my only wintertime forecast thread title because it was right first time Wolfie.

pistolpetes11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

You wish. They never changed my only wintertime forecast thread title because it was right first time Wolfie.

Nobody liked yours

Deep Easterly

Tyrone 2m temp GFS 18z ensemble:



18z op run defo the coldest solution of all, although as has been said, the trend is downwards. Big question is, downwards towards more normal temps for the time of year or something more significant?

All eyes on the 00z runs.

pistolpetes11

is the 18Z not the "pub run" and if so its a little less to be excited about :eek:

Sponge Bob

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Nobody liked yours

None of which matters when you are proven right Pete.That is what forecasting is all about.

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 2m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
One heck of a 18Z GFS Det but as much of an extreme solution as possible...slim possibility of becoming reality unfortunately.

Deep Easterly

Sponge Bob wrote: »

None of which matters when you are proven right Pete.That is what forecasting is all about.

Not exactly true. You predicted a heatwave, 13/14c is hardly that, relative to time of year or nay!

pistolpetes11

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Not exactly true. You predicted a heatwave, 13/14c is hardly that, relative to time of year or nay!

Il have to row in behind DE here , the finer dynamics of the forecast were incorrect

IE the heatwave !

But alas I have to concede it was a good call on the warmer spell over the festivities especially when the models picked it up about 12 days out and chopped and changed a fair bit along the way.

Min

It has been a great winter so far, the milkman is able to come and collect the milk
I hope the rest of the winter is the same.

I think it will get colder but nothing extreme.

pistolpetes11

Min wrote: »

It has been a great winter so far, the milkman is able to come and collect the milk
I hope the rest of the winter is the same.

I think it will get colder but nothing extreme.

You have not looked at the charts tonight then I take it ,

Them hills as well as all around them are in for a mighty pasting if they come off :eek:




But there is only a small probability of that happening

Sponge Bob

Foreasting A Joint Highest Recorded temp on Christmas Day DE. A mere 0.1c off a record high and with the Climatological Data not yet collated so perhaps an all time high record in the report rather than the summary.

And all that when those less prescient than ole Sponge Bob were still asking about a white christmas

But for now lets focus on a MID JANUARY cold snap like the thread title says

Deep Easterly

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Foreasting A Joint Highest Recorded temp on Christmas Day DE. A mere 0.1c off a record high and with the Climatological Data not yet collated so perhaps an all time high record in the report rather than the summary.

And all that when those less prescient than ole Sponge Bob were still asking about a white christmas

But for now lets focus on a MID JANUARY cold snap like the thread title says

I was joking! But I agree, respect to HIS Spongeness for calling it well.

Any thoughts on the current potential?

dsmythy

Will be probably pushing the last week in January for coldness of interest. Low pressure to pass right over us with high coming from NW pressing east and drying us up. Maybe some snow for a day or two before the heights become too much. Pure unskilled speculation here

delw

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

is the 18Z not the "pub run" and if so its a little less to be excited about :eek:

i was thinking that,the run not to be trusted

Redsunset

00z Puke, bye bye cold, hello Mr Jet Stream

TheMilkyPirate

00z couldn't be anymore different, Was to be expected though.

night

Harps

Netweather will be fun in the morning :pac:

It obviously wasn't going to play out like the 18z showed, still no certainty after the weekend though so anything could happen yet

J6P

GFS stinks...Prozac at the ready

mickger844posts

GEFS 0Z looking promising towards the end of the run.

Wild Bill

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Nobody liked yours

Wild Bill

Min wrote: »

It has been a great winter so far, the milkman is able to come and collect the milk

Jeez, my milkman leaves me milk :eek:

Even at the expense of a few frozen udders I'm rooting for -20 C.

Death to the cordylines! :mad:

john mayo 10

the 00Z runs of late have being of a milder trend than the later runs on the GFS so i wouldnt get to worried. As MT said in this mornings forcast the computer models are really struggling to settle on a outcome even 3 to 5 days out.:rolleyes:

blackius

mickger844posts wrote: »

GEFS 0Z looking promising towards the end of the run.

Promising is the wrong choice of word when looking that far into deep FI scraping a barrell for winter weather.
I know you know that but some reading here won't.

As regards the models having problems resolving the weather,this seems to be the stock response when they don't show cold in the near term.
But I have to say that when you are still hearing that excuse for the lack of cold for several weeks now and the reliable timeframe always gets it somewhat right [overall but with changes in particulars] then you have to question the veracity of the statement that the models are having trouble.

You'd have to be wondering is this statement constantly wheeled out to calm the anxieties of cold lovers when there is no sign of cold.
Folks forecasting is supposed to be about real weather not hoped for weather.

In my last decade or so lurking around weather fora,yes it seems to be the default stance in winter and to be honest it doesn't calm me because I think what I see rather than what is hopecasted by others and I honestly don't see any cold remotely like dec 10 coming or even february 09 and that looks to me like the situation for the next forthnight anyway.
Beyond that it's all hopecasting.
Even the strat event can send the cold elsewhere.Theres no forecast available as to what it's impacts are snow wise for our weather because frankly the impacts are too random.

Sorry for the medium term downbeat assessment but reality bites as they say,but of course chaos theory can mean something we don't know now could turn up in models at any point,we just don't know when.
Before march please.After that it's a waste and a nuisance to be honest.

Sponge Bob

blackius wrote: »

Before march please.After that it's a waste and a nuisance to be honest.

Ah now Blackius, if a spell of cold dry weather continues into March I can get the machine onto the bog and therefore the turf cut earlier.

blackius

Not if the EU has anything to do with it..ask ming

Danno

Wild Bill wrote: »

Even at the expense of a few frozen udders I'm rooting for -20 C.

Post of the day!

WolfeIRE

06z GFS is a stinker if you are looking for cold. Puts easterly cold on hold until later in the run and has Ireland in a cold zonal setup next week i.e. jet stream putting us in a cold w-nw. This would bring wintry showers at times but widespread snow and frost would be unlikely or at best shortlived.

The next ECM run will be interesting as will the 12z GFS which could bring colder weather back into the fry much sooner again.

It's all about trends at this stage and overall the trend is clearly for colder weather....how much colder remains uncertain

Rebelbrowser

blackius wrote: »

Promising is the wrong choice of word when looking that far into deep FI scraping a barrell for winter weather.
I know you know that but some reading here won't.

As regards the models having problems resolving the weather,this seems to be the stock response when they don't show cold in the near term.
But I have to say that when you are still hearing that excuse for the lack of cold for several weeks now and the reliable timeframe always gets it somewhat right [overall but with changes in particulars] then you have to question the veracity of the statement that the models are having trouble.

You'd have to be wondering is this statement constantly wheeled out to calm the anxieties of cold lovers when there is no sign of cold.
Folks forecasting is supposed to be about real weather not hoped for weather.

In my last decade or so lurking around weather fora,yes it seems to be the default stance in winter and to be honest it doesn't calm me because I think what I see rather than what is hopecasted by others and I honestly don't see any cold remotely like dec 10 coming or even february 09 and that looks to me like the situation for the next forthnight anyway.
Beyond that it's all hopecasting.
Even the strat event can send the cold elsewhere.Theres no forecast available as to what it's impacts are snow wise for our weather because frankly the impacts are too random.

Sorry for the medium term downbeat assessment but reality bites as they say,but of course chaos theory can mean something we don't know now could turn up in models at any point,we just don't know when.
Before march please.After that it's a waste and a nuisance to be honest.

I generally agree (and the 6z is worse again) but the only thing to note is that the idea of the models being all over the place was itself predicted in advance by, inter alia, MTC which does allow some hope to cold lovers like me.

I think MTC said 7-10 Jan would be the key forecast dates though so you'd have thought if the GFS etc keep with this morning's output for the next couple of days then January cold isn't going to happen. Will be interesting to see if / when MTC changes his seasonal forecast.

On a happier note I was v lucky to get away to the Alps for 3 days over the weekend where there were snow drifts of 8 feet outside the chalet I stayed in (all of which had fallen in the last 3 weeks) so the memory of that will keep me going through these hard, mild winter nights! It does make you greedy for some at home though... Will try to post pictures in a minute.

Sponge Bob

I'll be eyeing up the local crows for the next while lads. Post a report later.

Wild Bill, do your local crows as well so we can get to quasi mesocscale on the crows as soon as.

A.Partridge

Wild Bill wrote: »

Jeez, my milkman leaves me milk :eek:

Even at the expense of a few frozen udders I'm rooting for -20 C.

Death to the cordylines! :mad:

[IMG][/img]

Note: This is a dead cordyline I photographed at Baltray, Co Louth last April and which had been killed stone dead by the frost and snow.