Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

John.Icy

Yeah continuing interest from GFS, could flip and flop a few more times so fingers crossed we get a good outcome. A very nice low to our south on the 18z, if we are to get an easterly at some stage, an undercutting low could be key, due to pesky high pressure constantly looking to nudge itself closer and closer to Ireland from our SW(Of course, if that high wants to aid retrogression and more WAA to create more prominent block to our North, it's more than welcome), which could prevent anything big getting going, but nonetheless, it's great to see a coldish scenario back on a few of the models, after abit of a dodgy day yesterday.

Bring on the 0z!

Lucreto

K_1 wrote: »

FI 18z GFS is beautiful!




Edit: It gets better!

Do you think I should write up a shopping list to get food in just in case or still too early.

NIALL D

Lucreto wrote: »

Do you think I should write up a shopping list to get food in just in case or still too early.

plenty of tinned food :eek::D

TheMilkyPirate

Net weather has gone into meltdown, It's hilarious really it will (probably) be gone tomorrow and they'll all be depressed again!

maquiladora

baraca wrote: »

Net weather has gone into meltdown, It's hilarious really it will (probably) be gone tomorrow and they'll all be depressed again!

Happens several times every winter. :pac:

Sponge Bob

maquiladora wrote: »

Happens several times every winter.

No different here Remember the "Hot Snow" in early November. ??

eskimocat

NIALL D wrote: »

plenty of tinned food :eek::D

and a snow machine... just in case Will Bill fails to deliver :pac:

TheMilkyPirate

maquiladora wrote: »

Happens several times every winter. :pac:

I've noticed! :pac:

srocliffe

maquiladora wrote: »

Happens several times every winter. :pac:

I know it will probably disappear again, but we've been so deprived of anything good, even in Fantasy Island this winter. The end of the 18z GFS is by far the best run we've had all this winter, it's stunning, so let's enjoy it while it lasts .

doccy

In fairness, we all chuckle knowingly about how these charts will be gone in the morning .. but a pattern is finally starting to emerge .. a pattern in the shape of a rollercoaster .. veeeeery subtle ramp

M.T. Cranium

Think this is the trend alright (timed out).

TheMilkyPirate

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Think this is the trend alright (timed out).

Haven't heard much from you peter over the last few days, Since the models have started to trend more to what you and a few forecasters on NW predicted.

Cross model agreement would be nice, But would you be more confident now than you were a few days ago of a cold outbreak?

Sponge Bob

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Think this is the trend alright (timed out).

I agree, but not on Mid January like the thread title says ...a week or two later perhaps. A Trend it is all the same. :cool:

Trogdor

GFS ensembles are beginning to look very nice towards the end of the run there, lets hope the trend continues!

NIALL D

trogdor wrote: »

GFS ensembles are beginning to look very nice towards the end of the run there, lets hope the trend continues!

fingers arms legs toes the whole lot crossed !!!

Iancar29

Quote of the day!

..... It's coldies' chart porn this evening

Harps

Operational run an outlier although quite a few around the -7C to -10C mark from the 20th onwards which is unusual. Wouldn't pay any attention to it tonight though with such big changes on every run after the 14th.

The netweather model thread is ridiculous at the best of times but its hilarious to read tonight, would love to see the easterly dropped tomorrow just to see the reactions (to return later of course)

Sponge Bob

Harps wrote: »

The netweather model thread is ridiculous at the best of times but its hilarious to read tonight, would love to see the easterly dropped tomorrow just to see the reactions (to return later of course)

Snow Bunnies can cause ructions dude, way it is.

Steopo

Ok I'm going for the 7th-9th Feb full moon period for the big one with a white blanket over Ireland - we've just seen massive snow falls in Alaska & Austria around Jan high energy peak, the stratosphere is warming, the polar vortex is all over the shop, the AO's & NAO's are heading negative, the first cold we get (hopefully in 10 days time) never seems as bad as the the second cold we get (hopefully in early Feb)

Caution: this forecast is not based on any scientific models, knowledge of nature, conversations with milkmen or postmen but is purely based on wishful thinking, guesswork and an unhealthy reading of boards.ie weather forum posts

Sponge Bob

Steopo wrote: »

Ok I'm going for the 7th-9th Feb full moon period

This is the "MID-JANUARY" thread. Please start your own thread for February, ta.!

WolfeIRE

Couple of words of caution....The models WILL continue to chop and change over the next day or two but should start to align come the second half of the week in relation to any threat from the east. Maybe treat is a better word than threat. Depends on your point of view:) Ultimately, signals that a cold airflow will become established over Ireland do not necessarily mean widespread snowfall. That's a whole different conversation and one that can only be discussed with any conviction closer to the actual event.

Ultimately, we are on track to see a gradual turn to colder weather come the 16-18th.

GFS ensembles for Dublin.



Here are some links for those wishing to keep an eye on the NAO, AO, GFS Ensembles, other models.

NAO
Ensembles (select Dublin or any of the six N.I. counties)
AO
MODELS or here

pistolpetes11

Its prob time to lock this puppy and start up a new thread for the end of January, well 19th/20th January onwards

WolfeIRE

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Its prob time to lock this puppy and start up a new thread for the end of January, well 19th/20th January onwards

The period I pointed to in OP is 16-18th i.e. 7-9 days away. Great uncertainty still, Pete, regarding timing but that period looks most likely to be the beginning of any cooling trend.

Alternatively, an edit on the title by Trog or WC to Jan/Feb Cold Spell might suffice.

Wild Bill

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Its prob time to lock this puppy and start up a new thread for the end of January, well 19th/20th January onwards

yeah...lock this puppy up!



No snow till Jan 20th.

TheMilkyPirate

No need to lock the thread just change the title to potential upcoming cold spell.

JAMM222

It will be snowing on jan 22

Harps

A bit premature anyway, just to remind people this is what the ECMWF (generally considered the most accurate model for us) is showing for the same period.



Plenty of potential but I'd wait another few days before getting any real expectations up

pistolpetes11

WolfeIRE wrote: »

The period I pointed to in OP is 16-18th i.e. 7-9 days away. Great uncertainty still, Pete, regarding timing but that period looks most likely to be the beginning of any cooling trend.

Alternatively, an edit on the title by Trog or WC to Jan/Feb Cold Spell might suffice.

Nope not having it , have the lead out and Im ready to go !


Unless the edit was to go like this :

Finally the Rollercoaster Ride Winter 11/12 begins, possible cold spell mid January onwards !

Oh and I would like my name in the credits of that one too .

On a serious side folks , I must urge caution on what the models are showing , as MT and now Wolfe has stated these charts will flip flop before they lock in ,

I think we have had one slight warming in the Stratosphere and another major one due within 9-10 days and again another major warming due very shortly after that which will in turn keep the charts going everywhere until they get a full handle what is happening in the Stratosphere amongst many other things.

Sponge Bob

No Way this thread is fit for a February outbreak.

Wolfie will simply have to join Darkman in the 'Cry Wolf' snow pen if the real cold appears next month after all. Except Wolfie only started one big forecast thread all winter.....just like ME as it happens.! So I will be understanding.

WolfeIRE

Nice one Trog or WC with Title change. Thanks.

Now.....all aboard the 2012 Special