Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Rebelbrowser

Alpine pics as promised...

blackius

Rebelbrowser

I'll just get my coat.........

Rebelbrowser

Back on topic, after writing off the 6z run as a disaster its actually pretty good in FI (as someone has pointed out on the Winter thread). The last 10 days of Jan still look very cold so all hope is far from lost.

WolfeIRE

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

The last 10 days of Jan still look very cold so all hope is far from lost.

Confidence in relation to Ireland seeing colder weather is high. Confidence regarding how the cold manifests itself is low at this stage

davidsr20

blackius wrote: »

Is this real?looks mental,where is it?

oterra

davidsr20 wrote: »

Is this real?looks mental,where is it?

A bit of Photoshopery weather. Very F1. Its all in the repeat marks!!!:cool:

garyha

Joe Bastardi on twitter (@BigJoeBastardi)

Recharging of stratwarm means Feb will be colder than models say, though they are starting to trend that way! pic.twitter.com/gOqLLL67

DOCARCH

oterra wrote: »

A bit of Photoshopery weather. Very F1. Its all in the repeat marks!!!:cool:

Google: Tateyama Kurobe Snow Road

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZeGekZjx0o

oterra

DOCARCH wrote: »

Google: Tateyama Kurobe Snow Road

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZeGekZjx0o

Its amazing what they can do with Photoshop these days!:eek:

Ok you got me!

premiercad

23 inches in one night! (no jokes now)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16467352

Not

blackius wrote: »

:eek: Where can I get some of that grit !? I really needed some of that last winter..!!!

waytoowarm

Not wrote: »

:eek: Where can I get some of that grit !? I really needed some of that last winter..!!!

sally gap never looked as good

Harps

That road is in Japan as far as I know, the west coast of Japan gets massive amounts of snow all winter. Sapporo is the worlds snowiest major city with 6 metres of snow in an average winter!

Edit: Didn't see DOCARCH's post!

Anyway, little excitement on today's models, thankfully I never thought much of yesterdays GFS so nothing to be disappointed about. Looks like continued boring weather on current charts and maybe a return to slightly more interesting polar maritime air next week. Could all change again on the next set of runs of course!

kstand

The 6z runs tend to be a downgrade in general, 12z coming out now, people wait with baited breath...

weatherfiend

kstand wrote: »

The 6z runs tend to be a downgrade in general, 12z coming out now, people wait with baited breath...

Can anybody explain the difference between 6z and 12z? Sorry, I've tried in order to not ask silly questions but just don't get it yet!!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

weatherfiend wrote: »

Can anybody explain the difference between 6z and 12z? Sorry, I've tried in order to not ask silly questions but just don't get it yet!!

6z = 6am

12z = midday

Iancar29

weatherfiend wrote: »

Can anybody explain the difference between 6z and 12z? Sorry, I've tried in order to not ask silly questions but just don't get it yet!!

4 model runs per day. 0z /12am , 6z / 6am , 12z /12pm and 18z / 6pm. For us to see them though theres a time delays of 3 1/2 hrs.

Enjoy!!

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 5m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Latest charts showing the colder air filtering S nicely during Thu ,Note the darker blues behind a surface cold front

WolfeIRE

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 5m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Latest charts showing the colder air filtering S nicely during Thu - wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn487.… -Note the darker blues behind a surface cold front

That colder air sinks south over Scotland and the east coast of England before being pushed east over the North Sea and toward Europe. One to watch in the next run or two.

DOCARCH

Nothing exciting out of the 12z (at least to 192hrs), looks like more of the same. I never bother looking any further. :rolleyes:

Re Matthew Hugo - the east coast of Scotland gets a glancing blow of -8 uppers. Hardly anything to get excited about?

jirafa

Temperatures cooler for the rest of January? 10/1/12
From: WeatherSchool

Link............http://youtu.be/aOilimG3OZo



Did I hear Simon say "" warming up as we get into Feb "" :(:(:mad::mad::mad::mad:

TheMilkyPirate

The GFS has been up and down like a hoors knickers the last week, TBH i think i'm going to leave model watching till the weekend. Cold zonality which I then feel will be followed by a proper cold outbreak from the E/NE in very late Jan or early Feb.

(Who am i kidding i'll be stuck to the 12z ECM!)

cherryghost

baraca wrote: »

The GFS has been up and down like a hoors knickers the last week, TBH i think i'm going to leave model watching till the weekend. Cold zonality which I then feel will be followed by a proper cold outbreak from the E/NE in very late Jan or early Feb.

Welcome aboard

baraca wrote: »

(Who am i kidding i'll be stuck to the 12z ECM!)

Yeah.... its tough to lose the addiction :P

200motels

Enderman wrote: »

Welcome aboard



Yeah.... its tough to lose the addiction :P

Models are all over the place at the moment. I think I'll stick to MT'S forecasts.

Musicman2000

What a difference 24 hours make, If that vortex wont move we cant forget about a decent cold spell:mad:

aurora 527

ECM dosen't look too good to me:(

Musicman2000

aurora 527 wrote: »

ECM dosen't look too good to me:(

We are back to square one again:rolleyes:

aurora 527

Musicman2000 wrote: »

We are back to square one again:rolleyes:

But models are certainly all over the place, from run to run...
maybe we will eventually get some decent cold to reach our shores!!;)

Musicman2000

aurora 527 wrote: »

But models are certainly all over the place, from run to run...
maybe we will eventually get some decent cold to reach our shores!!;)

Maybe in the next 10-11 days but as I said if we cant get that vortex displaced from the west of Greenland it will be a struggle, Its a wait and see situation.