Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

M.T. Cranium · 09-01-2012 11:22pm

Think this is the trend alright (timed out).

TheMilkyPirate · 09-01-2012 11:27pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Think this is the trend alright (timed out).

Haven't heard much from you peter over the last few days, Since the models have started to trend more to what you and a few forecasters on NW predicted.

Cross model agreement would be nice, But would you be more confident now than you were a few days ago of a cold outbreak?

Sponge Bob · 09-01-2012 11:30pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Think this is the trend alright (timed out).

I agree, but not on Mid January like the thread title says ...a week or two later perhaps. A Trend it is all the same. :cool:

Trogdor · 09-01-2012 11:31pm

GFS ensembles are beginning to look very nice towards the end of the run there, lets hope the trend continues!

NIALL D · 09-01-2012 11:33pm

trogdor wrote: »

GFS ensembles are beginning to look very nice towards the end of the run there, lets hope the trend continues!

fingers arms legs toes the whole lot crossed !!!

Iancar29 · 09-01-2012 11:37pm

Quote of the day!

..... It's coldies' chart porn this evening

Harps · 09-01-2012 11:39pm

Operational run an outlier although quite a few around the -7C to -10C mark from the 20th onwards which is unusual. Wouldn't pay any attention to it tonight though with such big changes on every run after the 14th.

The netweather model thread is ridiculous at the best of times but its hilarious to read tonight, would love to see the easterly dropped tomorrow just to see the reactions (to return later of course)

Sponge Bob · 09-01-2012 11:56pm

Harps wrote: »

The netweather model thread is ridiculous at the best of times but its hilarious to read tonight, would love to see the easterly dropped tomorrow just to see the reactions (to return later of course)

Snow Bunnies can cause ructions dude, way it is.

Steopo · 09-01-2012 11:56pm

Ok I'm going for the 7th-9th Feb full moon period for the big one with a white blanket over Ireland - we've just seen massive snow falls in Alaska & Austria around Jan high energy peak, the stratosphere is warming, the polar vortex is all over the shop, the AO's & NAO's are heading negative, the first cold we get (hopefully in 10 days time) never seems as bad as the the second cold we get (hopefully in early Feb)

Caution: this forecast is not based on any scientific models, knowledge of nature, conversations with milkmen or postmen but is purely based on wishful thinking, guesswork and an unhealthy reading of boards.ie weather forum posts

Sponge Bob · 09-01-2012 11:58pm

Steopo wrote: »

Ok I'm going for the 7th-9th Feb full moon period

This is the "MID-JANUARY" thread. Please start your own thread for February, ta.!

WolfeIRE · 10-01-2012 12:02am

Couple of words of caution....The models WILL continue to chop and change over the next day or two but should start to align come the second half of the week in relation to any threat from the east. Maybe treat is a better word than threat. Depends on your point of view:) Ultimately, signals that a cold airflow will become established over Ireland do not necessarily mean widespread snowfall. That's a whole different conversation and one that can only be discussed with any conviction closer to the actual event.

Ultimately, we are on track to see a gradual turn to colder weather come the 16-18th.

GFS ensembles for Dublin.

Here are some links for those wishing to keep an eye on the NAO, AO, GFS Ensembles, other models.

NAO
Ensembles (select Dublin or any of the six N.I. counties)
AO
MODELS or here

pistolpetes11 · 10-01-2012 12:04am

Its prob time to lock this puppy and start up a new thread for the end of January, well 19th/20th January onwards

WolfeIRE · 10-01-2012 12:08am

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Its prob time to lock this puppy and start up a new thread for the end of January, well 19th/20th January onwards

The period I pointed to in OP is 16-18th i.e. 7-9 days away. Great uncertainty still, Pete, regarding timing but that period looks most likely to be the beginning of any cooling trend.

Alternatively, an edit on the title by Trog or WC to Jan/Feb Cold Spell might suffice.

Wild Bill · 10-01-2012 12:09am

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Its prob time to lock this puppy and start up a new thread for the end of January, well 19th/20th January onwards

yeah...lock this puppy up!

No snow till Jan 20th.

TheMilkyPirate · 10-01-2012 12:11am

No need to lock the thread just change the title to potential upcoming cold spell.

JAMM222 · 10-01-2012 12:12am

It will be snowing on jan 22

Harps · 10-01-2012 12:13am

A bit premature anyway, just to remind people this is what the ECMWF (generally considered the most accurate model for us) is showing for the same period.

Plenty of potential but I'd wait another few days before getting any real expectations up

pistolpetes11 · 10-01-2012 12:19am

WolfeIRE wrote: »

The period I pointed to in OP is 16-18th i.e. 7-9 days away. Great uncertainty still, Pete, regarding timing but that period looks most likely to be the beginning of any cooling trend.

Alternatively, an edit on the title by Trog or WC to Jan/Feb Cold Spell might suffice.

Nope not having it , have the lead out and Im ready to go !

Unless the edit was to go like this :

Finally the Rollercoaster Ride Winter 11/12 begins, possible cold spell mid January onwards !

Oh and I would like my name in the credits of that one too .

On a serious side folks , I must urge caution on what the models are showing , as MT and now Wolfe has stated these charts will flip flop before they lock in ,

I think we have had one slight warming in the Stratosphere and another major one due within 9-10 days and again another major warming due very shortly after that which will in turn keep the charts going everywhere until they get a full handle what is happening in the Stratosphere amongst many other things.

Sponge Bob · 10-01-2012 12:30am

No Way this thread is fit for a February outbreak.

Wolfie will simply have to join Darkman in the 'Cry Wolf' snow pen if the real cold appears next month after all.

Except Wolfie only started one big forecast thread all winter.....just like ME as it happens.! So I will be understanding.

WolfeIRE · 10-01-2012 12:30am

Nice one Trog or WC with Title change. Thanks.

Now.....all aboard the 2012 Special

Sponge Bob · 10-01-2012 12:35am

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Nice one Trog or WC with Title change.

You wish. They never changed my only wintertime forecast thread title because it was right first time Wolfie.

pistolpetes11 · 10-01-2012 12:37am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

You wish. They never changed my only wintertime forecast thread title because it was right first time Wolfie.

Nobody liked yours

Deep Easterly · 10-01-2012 12:39am

Tyrone 2m temp GFS 18z ensemble:

18z op run defo the coldest solution of all, although as has been said, the trend is downwards. Big question is, downwards towards more normal temps for the time of year or something more significant?

All eyes on the 00z runs.

pistolpetes11 · 10-01-2012 12:41am

is the 18Z not the "pub run" and if so its a little less to be excited about :eek:

Sponge Bob · 10-01-2012 12:44am

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Nobody liked yours

None of which matters when you are proven right Pete.That is what forecasting is all about.

pistolpetes11 · 10-01-2012 12:46am

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 2m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
One heck of a 18Z GFS Det but as much of an extreme solution as possible...slim possibility of becoming reality unfortunately.

Deep Easterly · 10-01-2012 12:49am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

None of which matters when you are proven right Pete.That is what forecasting is all about.

Not exactly true. You predicted a heatwave, 13/14c is hardly that, relative to time of year or nay!

pistolpetes11 · 10-01-2012 12:52am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Not exactly true. You predicted a heatwave, 13/14c is hardly that, relative to time of year or nay!

Il have to row in behind DE here , the finer dynamics of the forecast were incorrect

IE the heatwave !

But alas I have to concede it was a good call on the warmer spell over the festivities especially when the models picked it up about 12 days out and chopped and changed a fair bit along the way.

Min · 10-01-2012 12:52am

It has been a great winter so far, the milkman is able to come and collect the milk

I hope the rest of the winter is the same.

I think it will get colder but nothing extreme.

pistolpetes11 · 10-01-2012 12:55am

Min wrote: »

It has been a great winter so far, the milkman is able to come and collect the milk
I hope the rest of the winter is the same.

I think it will get colder but nothing extreme.

You have not looked at the charts tonight then I take it ,

Them hills as well as all around them are in for a mighty pasting if they come off :eek:

But there is only a small probability of that happening

Sponge Bob · 10-01-2012 12:56am

Foreasting A Joint Highest Recorded temp on Christmas Day DE. A mere 0.1c off a record high and with the Climatological Data not yet collated so perhaps an all time high record in the report rather than the summary.

And all that when those less prescient than ole Sponge Bob were still asking about a white christmas

But for now lets focus on a MID JANUARY cold snap like the thread title says

Deep Easterly · 10-01-2012 1:07am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Foreasting A Joint Highest Recorded temp on Christmas Day DE. A mere 0.1c off a record high and with the Climatological Data not yet collated so perhaps an all time high record in the report rather than the summary.

And all that when those less prescient than ole Sponge Bob were still asking about a white christmas

But for now lets focus on a MID JANUARY cold snap like the thread title says

I was joking! But I agree, respect to HIS Spongeness for calling it well.

Any thoughts on the current potential?

dsmythy · 10-01-2012 1:15am

Will be probably pushing the last week in January for coldness of interest. Low pressure to pass right over us with high coming from NW pressing east and drying us up. Maybe some snow for a day or two before the heights become too much. Pure unskilled speculation here

delw · 10-01-2012 1:36am

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

is the 18Z not the "pub run" and if so its a little less to be excited about :eek:

i was thinking that,the run not to be trusted

Redsunset · 10-01-2012 4:35am

00z Puke, bye bye cold, hello Mr Jet Stream

TheMilkyPirate · 10-01-2012 4:43am

00z couldn't be anymore different, Was to be expected though.

night

Harps · 10-01-2012 4:48am

Netweather will be fun in the morning :pac:

It obviously wasn't going to play out like the 18z showed, still no certainty after the weekend though so anything could happen yet

J6P · 10-01-2012 5:05am

GFS stinks...Prozac at the ready

mickger844posts · 10-01-2012 6:28am

GEFS 0Z looking promising towards the end of the run.

Wild Bill · 10-01-2012 7:18am

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Nobody liked yours

Wild Bill · 10-01-2012 7:22am

Min wrote: »

It has been a great winter so far, the milkman is able to come and collect the milk

Jeez, my milkman leaves me milk :eek:

Even at the expense of a few frozen udders I'm rooting for -20 C.

Death to the cordylines! :mad:

john mayo 10 · 10-01-2012 8:27am

the 00Z runs of late have being of a milder trend than the later runs on the GFS so i wouldnt get to worried. As MT said in this mornings forcast the computer models are really struggling to settle on a outcome even 3 to 5 days out.:rolleyes:

blackius · 10-01-2012 9:42am

mickger844posts wrote: »

GEFS 0Z looking promising towards the end of the run.

Promising is the wrong choice of word when looking that far into deep FI scraping a barrell for winter weather.
I know you know that but some reading here won't.

As regards the models having problems resolving the weather,this seems to be the stock response when they don't show cold in the near term.
But I have to say that when you are still hearing that excuse for the lack of cold for several weeks now and the reliable timeframe always gets it somewhat right [overall but with changes in particulars] then you have to question the veracity of the statement that the models are having trouble.

You'd have to be wondering is this statement constantly wheeled out to calm the anxieties of cold lovers when there is no sign of cold.
Folks forecasting is supposed to be about real weather not hoped for weather.

In my last decade or so lurking around weather fora,yes it seems to be the default stance in winter and to be honest it doesn't calm me because I think what I see rather than what is hopecasted by others and I honestly don't see any cold remotely like dec 10 coming or even february 09 and that looks to me like the situation for the next forthnight anyway.
Beyond that it's all hopecasting.
Even the strat event can send the cold elsewhere.Theres no forecast available as to what it's impacts are snow wise for our weather because frankly the impacts are too random.

Sorry for the medium term downbeat assessment but reality bites as they say,but of course chaos theory can mean something we don't know now could turn up in models at any point,we just don't know when.
Before march please.After that it's a waste and a nuisance to be honest.

Sponge Bob · 10-01-2012 9:50am

blackius wrote: »

Before march please.After that it's a waste and a nuisance to be honest.

Ah now Blackius, if a spell of cold dry weather continues into March I can get the machine onto the bog and therefore the turf cut earlier.

blackius · 10-01-2012 9:58am

Not if the EU has anything to do with it..ask ming

Danno · 10-01-2012 10:15am

Wild Bill wrote: »

Even at the expense of a few frozen udders I'm rooting for -20 C.

Post of the day!

WolfeIRE · 10-01-2012 10:56am

06z GFS is a stinker if you are looking for cold. Puts easterly cold on hold until later in the run and has Ireland in a cold zonal setup next week i.e. jet stream putting us in a cold w-nw. This would bring wintry showers at times but widespread snow and frost would be unlikely or at best shortlived.

The next ECM run will be interesting as will the 12z GFS which could bring colder weather back into the fry much sooner again.

It's all about trends at this stage and overall the trend is clearly for colder weather....how much colder remains uncertain

Rebelbrowser · 10-01-2012 10:58am

blackius wrote: »

Promising is the wrong choice of word when looking that far into deep FI scraping a barrell for winter weather.
I know you know that but some reading here won't.

As regards the models having problems resolving the weather,this seems to be the stock response when they don't show cold in the near term.
But I have to say that when you are still hearing that excuse for the lack of cold for several weeks now and the reliable timeframe always gets it somewhat right [overall but with changes in particulars] then you have to question the veracity of the statement that the models are having trouble.

You'd have to be wondering is this statement constantly wheeled out to calm the anxieties of cold lovers when there is no sign of cold.
Folks forecasting is supposed to be about real weather not hoped for weather.

In my last decade or so lurking around weather fora,yes it seems to be the default stance in winter and to be honest it doesn't calm me because I think what I see rather than what is hopecasted by others and I honestly don't see any cold remotely like dec 10 coming or even february 09 and that looks to me like the situation for the next forthnight anyway.
Beyond that it's all hopecasting.
Even the strat event can send the cold elsewhere.Theres no forecast available as to what it's impacts are snow wise for our weather because frankly the impacts are too random.

Sorry for the medium term downbeat assessment but reality bites as they say,but of course chaos theory can mean something we don't know now could turn up in models at any point,we just don't know when.
Before march please.After that it's a waste and a nuisance to be honest.

I generally agree (and the 6z is worse again) but the only thing to note is that the idea of the models being all over the place was itself predicted in advance by, inter alia, MTC which does allow some hope to cold lovers like me.

I think MTC said 7-10 Jan would be the key forecast dates though so you'd have thought if the GFS etc keep with this morning's output for the next couple of days then January cold isn't going to happen. Will be interesting to see if / when MTC changes his seasonal forecast.

On a happier note I was v lucky to get away to the Alps for 3 days over the weekend where there were snow drifts of 8 feet outside the chalet I stayed in (all of which had fallen in the last 3 weeks) so the memory of that will keep me going through these hard, mild winter nights! It does make you greedy for some at home though... Will try to post pictures in a minute.

Sponge Bob · 10-01-2012 11:19am

I'll be eyeing up the local crows for the next while lads. Post a report later.

Wild Bill, do your local crows as well so we can get to quasi mesocscale on the crows as soon as.

A.Partridge · 10-01-2012 11:24am

Wild Bill wrote: »

Jeez, my milkman leaves me milk :eek:

Even at the expense of a few frozen udders I'm rooting for -20 C.

Death to the cordylines! :mad:

[IMG][/img]

Note: This is a dead cordyline I photographed at Baltray, Co Louth last April and which had been killed stone dead by the frost and snow.

Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

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