Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Icanseethewind

I think my rather green outlook will apply to all of the country. Talking to another neighbout of mine and he told me that the Winter is over! He reckons its going to stay mild and wet.... he 87 and has lived here all his life. Now another sign I know that people often dismiss are the frogs... there is spawn in a ditch near here already. Ok people argue that the wildlife is tricked into thinking it is Spring because it is so mild... but more often than not we get these very mild winters in Ireland yet the frogs dont necessarily spawn so early. But this year its as if wildlife has somehow sensed that the danger of a cold spell is gone. I know science tells us that wildlife cannot predict conditions weeks in advance but I disagree. Just becasue we cannot explain it doesnt mean its not true.

Icanseethewind

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Would your experience tell you that the crows are predicting a lack of serious cold or a lack of atlantic storms to dislodge the nests.??

The grey back crow is a carrion crow, if they are the ones nesting could they not be predicting a bumper feast of dead lambs and the like....say in a Feb/March blizzard season?? I am not sure of their nesting habits but one of the local greybacks is often seen pulling surplus fur off an asses back when the ass moults in mid-late spring. I would think April.

On the other hand the black crow or rook normally lays its eggs around early March and would be expected to be nest building by mid february latest. Mid January would indeed seem early.

Thats an interesting point about the grey backs... the crows i see nest building are rooks and jackdaws.... Look it may mean nothing but I have seen this pattern before and I think no snow this year...well I dont know about the end of the year

pistolpetes11

Icanseethewind wrote: »

Thats an interesting point about the grey backs... the crows i see nest building are rooks and jackdaws.... Look it may mean nothing but I have seen this pattern before and I think no snow this year...well I dont know about the end of the year

There is a thread on the weather and nature signs /animals which you might also find interesting.


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=75790476

However Im hoping that your weather predictions are off

Lucreto

Icanseethewind wrote: »

I think my rather green outlook will apply to all of the country. Talking to another neighbout of mine and he told me that the Winter is over! He reckons its going to stay mild and wet.... he 87 and has lived here all his life. Now another sign I know that people often dismiss are the frogs... there is spawn in a ditch near here already. Ok people argue that the wildlife is tricked into thinking it is Spring because it is so mild... but more often than not we get these very mild winters in Ireland yet the frogs dont necessarily spawn so early. But this year its as if wildlife has somehow sensed that the danger of a cold spell is gone. I know science tells us that wildlife cannot predict conditions weeks in advance but I disagree. Just becasue we cannot explain it doesnt mean its not true.

I can't say anything about frogs except the one which magically appeared in my pond with the nearest pond is across a busy road. Unless it wanted to play some real like Frogger and got across to my garden.

...

...

Sorry a little side tracked.:D

I was speaking to an elderly gentleman at work last week and he said we will see heavy snow and a late spring. He says the signs are there and he says he got 2010 right. Pity I didn't have time to question him further and I didn't post it here as I didn't believe a word of it.

Sorry if my posts are coming off as aggressive that it not my intent.

Sponge Bob

Logically I would think that the Rooks ( black crow) nesting predicts ( if anything):

1. Storms over for the winter.
2. No snow/superchill from the 1st of March.

A High Pressure and freeze between now and mid Feb would not disturb the nests and would not interfere with the egg laying and incubation which starts end Feb

It could also mean the crow sees a crap summer, no grain in the fields and a need to get breeding over with and emigrate with the sprog in early summer to where the grain is.

Now this is ALSO me supposing the crow is as clued in as all that

jirafa

Cold Spell Looming? Not so much.

Link ................. http://ukweather.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/cold-spell-looming-not-so-much/

jirafa

Latest news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Chance of cold?
Posted Sun, 08 Jan 2012 08:31:13

The next few days will be mild as high pressure builds across the south. This pattern has been well forecast by the computer models for a number of days, and confidence on it happening is very high. The question mark is really how much cloud there will be, and unfortunately the answer is probably quite a lot. The real uncertainty begins during the second half of the coming week. By Friday a ridge of high pressure will build north over the UK at the same time as pressure is rising to our north east. This opens the door for low pressure to sink south over the continent with bitterly cold Siberian air flooding west. This is the type of pattern which often brings very cold conditions to western Russia and central Europe. Occasionally the push of cold air makes it as far as the UK, but many times it doesn’t get further west than central Germany, leaving a real divide in Europe’s weather. So what will happen during the next 10 days or so? It’s too early to tell. I’ve pasted the 192 hours ahead charts from the overnight ECM and GFS global computer models. The ECM chart is more encouraging if you’re hoping for a cold spell, showing a large block of very cold air pushing into eastern Britain. The blues (-10C 850hPA, the temperature at about 1500m ASL) and purples on the charts show the really cold air. The second chart below is for the same time, but from the GFS model. It shows things backed further east, with milder weather affecting the UK. It then goes on to show the Atlantic eroding the block to our east causing the cold air to sink south towards the Balkan Peninsula with unsettled weather in the UK. Things should become much clearer as we go through the next few days, but at the moment it’s still odds against a cold easterly becoming established over Britain.





Sitting on the fence?

I had a few emails yesterday asking me why I am ‘sitting on the fence’ this winter. The answer is I’m not! I’ve never thought this winter would be a particularly cold one, and that was reflected in my initial winter thoughts released in mid-October and the winter forecast issued in late November. What do I think now? It’s self now evident that this winter is very likely to fall into the milder than average category, so if anything the winter forecast has under estimated temperatures. However, I still think it’s very unlikely that we’ll completely escape cold weather before the end of February, and that means the chance of some snow.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx

mickger844posts

0Z GFS not inspiring much confidence. GEFS slightly better. Waiting for ECM.

Redsunset

Its gas you say that because I've been pouring over the 00z gfs the last hour and see it as being still positive looking. We will go blind at this rate.:D

WolfeIRE

Simon Keeling

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTRPccGlQWE

Update from Glacier Point over on NW

Extremely impressive set of ensemble means popping up t168+ across models this morning, all agreeing in the persistence and development of a very negative AO - probably the best of the winter for long term sustained cold, possibly hinting at a four wave pattern in the very long range.

The NAO remains stubbonly positive, but NAEFS suite is now very keen on shifting this in the extended range as the PV entirely displaces towards Alaska yanking the ridge in the Atlantic westward with it. Not so great for North American cold, good for European cold and ensemble means around 2-3 degrees below average for the last week of the month look not unrealistic.

I suspect that the ECM ensemble mean placement of the Azores ridge through days 6-10 is too far north and east.

Whilst the deep cold is moving into eastern Europe and Scandinavia it's tempting to look east for the time being, however I suspect the main initial attack for us is going to be from the NW or N, opening the door from the east.

darkman2

Good pressure rise to the North on the 06z GFS. More like what we want to see. Hopefully some indication of the other models going the same way later.

Redsunset

Once again I'm very happy with how things are progressing on the 06 z run. Not looking any further than 168 hrs.look at the northern hemisphere view and you see what I mean

WolfeIRE

Latest GEFS run puts us in a cooler setup from this weekend with potential for much colder weather increasing into next week and the following week. Jet stream gets pushed south of us later next week.

Aligning itself a little more with ECM. Looking forward to next run of the latter.

WolfeIRE

redsunset wrote: »

Not looking any further than 168 hrs.look at the northern hemisphere view and you see what I mean

Cold also is encroaching on west on Ireland and UK then suddenly starts getting pushed back east post 168+.

Iancar29

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Cold also is encroaching on west on Ireland and UK then suddenly starts getting pushed back east post 168+.

FIX THAT FOR YA!

yorlum11

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Cold also is encroaching on west on Ireland and UK then suddenly starts getting pushed back east post 168+.

It is finally building up for a cold blast 20th onwards,fingers crossed!!

munsterlegend

It's certainly some rollercoaster with the model watching at the moment.

WolfeIRE

GEFS ensembles trending much cooler today for the second half of the month. The various ensembles are becoming more aligned. Prospects for colder weather now looking much greater than last week. One question remains....will we be faced with a colder zonal setup or will the source of cold air be the continent or north from the Arctic? I would say it could go either way at this stage although a drop to average or slightly below average temps for January are are now more or less guaranteed from mid month, 16-18th onwards toward Feb.

ENSEMBLES




AO dips into negative territory by mid month



NAO trending lower and hovering close to neutral signalling an end of the very windy and unsettled sw-W flow of the past 6 weeks or more.

cherryghost

Looks good all round. Snow is still uncertain at this point though.

Joe Public

Icanseethewind wrote: »

Ok folks, here goes. I am putting my neck on then block so to speak with my predictions based on my observations and knowledge. I almost certain there will be no snow this month, in fact I think we are going to have a complete green Winter and Spring. I have been saying this to the family and neighbours since October. I have lived here in Mayo all my life since 1943 and experience has shown me that if we get no significant frosty weather between October and January then the warmth has won out. I have seen no ground frost at all this winter. Also I noticed the crows are already starting to build the nests again, another sign. Some may scoff at me and thats alright lads but I sticking to my predictions. It has really been an exceptionally mild winter, the grass has not stopped growing at all. People talk about the big cold of 1947 and 1963 arriving late but the set ups were there around Christmas and there were frosty /cold spells prior to it.

Just wondering, what were the signs last October that made you confident of the following "Winter"?

I'm always curious about nature, the plants and animals and if they really can give us a view into the future weather.
Granted that us humans think we have far superior intelligence than the "lower species" but we are still discovering how the natural world can look after itself without our help.

WolfeIRE

Latest GFS more or less keeps the possibility of an easterly setup for the UK and Ireland alive. Some model consistency now entering the frey. It's more or less as you were after the 06z run. It is very exciting, if you enjoy cold weather, to see the potential for an easterly hitting us at this time of year, generally the coldest part of the season.

Models will probably do a fair bit of chopping and changing in the meantime while being tested over a weakening PV, negative AO, flatlining NAO. Still a day or two away from finding out of the Siberian Army will stave off the fight being put up by the Jetstream/Atlantic. At the moment, a colder zonal setup is slightly favoured. This will bring average or slightly below average temps as opposed to the more sustained cold brought by an easterly or northeasterly.

Still, we are heading in the right direction and the current model runs offer the best potential for cold weather this winter to date.

Situation next Saturday


Situation on Wed 18. Easterly march continues westward. Note this setup will change in the meantime for better or worse. It is way out in FI but it's nice to see it being considered by the GFS

screamer

Joe Public wrote: »

Just wondering, what were the signs last October that made you confident of the following "Winter"?

I'm always curious about nature, the plants and animals and if they really can give us a view into the future weather.
Granted that us humans think we have far superior intelligence than the "lower species" but we are still discovering how the natural world can look after itself without our help.

I also think nature can teach us a lot about weather. I posted before about the badgers that visit my garden just before the snow falls, for the last 3 years I've seen them, and they've not been wrong. I haven't seen them this year, and if I do, I will know what's coming, we humans have lost our natural instinct for such things.

oterra

screamer wrote: »

I also think nature can teach us a lot about weather. I posted before about the badgers that visit my garden just before the snow falls, for the last 3 years I've seen them, and they've not been wrong. I haven't seen them this year, and if I do, I will know what's coming, we humans have lost our natural instinct for such things.

I'd also like to point out that my Milkman ALWAYS delivers milk the morning before it snows without fail. Its incredible really!

munsterlegend

oterra wrote: »

I'd also like to point out that my Milkman ALWAYS delivers milk the morning before it snows without fail. Its incredible really!

the real test of the milkman though is if he can deliver it the morning after the snow..

oterra

munsterlegend wrote: »

the real test of the milkman though is if he can deliver it the morning after the snow..

This is where he struggles, but those snow tires on a milk float will get you anywhere!

darkman2

The GFS control run might be stunning post 168hrs

maquiladora

darkman2 wrote: »

The GFS control run might be stunning post 168hrs

Yep but not until about 100 hours later.

264 onwards is magic FI.

Harps

The operational run is a big outlier in giving high pressure over us so I wouldn't give it much attention after the 15th

J6P

A few nice ensembles this evening

maquiladora

Poor 12Z ECM out to 168 anyway.